(The author of this article is ESPN writer Mike Schmitz, the views in this article do not represent the views of translators and platforms, and the data in this article is as of April 8, Beijing time)
As the 2022 playoffs approached, we could see that several second-year players in the regular season had greatly enhanced their teams' competitiveness, so we decided to segment the 2020 draft players and rank their prospects based on their performance in their respective careers.
This is not a prediction of each player's peak period, but to use their current performance as a yardstick to analyze where they still have room to rise, so that they can stay in the team and stay in the NBA's ecosystem of "survival of the fittest, survival of the fittest" to continue to improve.
To that end, I came to Memphis to join Grizzlies rising star Desmond Bain about his journey from No. 30 in the 2020 first round to a key starter for the league's second-best team this season. So far, Bain has not been the only player who has performed better than draft expectations, and two of the top 5 sophomores we have selected this season have also been selected after the top 10 picks.
Here are some of our top 5 second-year students for the season.
Fifth: Teresa Maxie Philadelphia 76ers
Season's stats: 17.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists
Maxi entered the NBA draft after his freshman season at the University of Kentucky, and I was adamant that he would be selected with the top ten picks, but he slid all the way to the 21st pick before being selected by the 76ers. It turned out that Maxi's arrival had brought changes to the development of the team. Not only will he be able to help the 76ers out of their predicament during Simmons' "farce," but he'll also blend perfectly with team pillars Joel Embiid and James Harden, even in the long run. Last November, we wrote about Max's possible breakthrough in the sophomore season, but even his most loyal fans probably didn't expect such a young player, who is only 21 years old, to continue to make a significant impact on a team with home advantage in the playoffs.
Before the draft, evaluation experts often regarded Maxi as the "short No. 2 position", but also pointed out that his freshman season shooting only 29.2% from three points, his style of play is fast. Now, less than two years after those pre-draft doubts, Maxi's three-point shooting rate has soared to 42.9%, and in Tuesday's victory over the Pacers, he hit eight three-pointers, setting a career high. Before the 2020 draft began, Maxi was known for his perseverance and excellent performance, and now he has stepped into the three-point range of top catches, his shots are always confident, and the long-range three-pointers are also within his shooting range. In addition, if the opponent chooses to bypass the block against him, then he will punish the defense with a quick stop jump shot. He can even use his excellent footing and balance to choose to retreat, thus creating shooting space. Of the 53 players who have made at least 250 stop-and-go jump shots so far this season, Maxi is 14th most efficient.
Maxi brings something completely different to the team, which is that he can open up space for the team. He was able to perfectly balance Embiid and Harden's more singles-handed style of play (the 76ers' pace of the game ranked 26th in the league). And when he has the ball, as the league's second most efficient conversion scorer after Mikael Bridges, he will show his speed advantage, sprinting from the backcourt to the front, putting pressure on the opponent's basket to complete the score.
In positional attacks, he can also make quick decisions and keep the ball running smoothly. Running without the ball is now his specialty, and he is good at using his explosive power to find defensive loopholes through no-ball running before the ball reaches his hand. Given his experience as a teammate with Emanuel Quickley in college, he's used to playing around high-level guards, and now as Harden's teammate, that's very important. While Maxi has shown his progress as an on-ball decision-maker and proven himself to be more than just what he called the "diminutive No. 2" when he first entered the league, the 76ers' offense was even better when he played the No. 2 (20 percent of the time), averaging 12.7 points per 100 possessions; while in his No. 1 position, the 76ers averaged only 1.3 points per 100 possessions.
Whether playing with or without the ball, Maxi is already one of the least error-prone defenders in the league, with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.68 and a turnover rate of less than 8%. Since 2000, only five players have averaged at least 17 points per game while averaging more than 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratios: Chris Paul (11), Changsi Billups (2), DeMar DeRozan, Gary Payton (2) and Maxi. Maxi's defensive basics and defensive discipline need to be strengthened, but his dynamism on the defensive end can mask some of his mistakes.
Maxi's performance in the first two NBA seasons has greatly exceeded expectations, and he has the motivation, confidence and microwave-like scoring attributes to help the 76ers win games in the playoffs. If the 21-year-old keeps improving, it shouldn't be surprising that he's in the top three of this list next season.
Fourth place: Desmond Bain Memphis Grizzlies
Season stats: 18.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists
In a video conference with Bain in October 2020, the Texas Christian University (TCU) defender said that given his shooting posture, strong but not-armed figure, and the size of a 6-foot-6, 215-pound footballer, his NBA templates were Joe Harris and Danny Green.
The 23-year-old has secured the Grizzlies' starting position this season, averaging 18.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 29.5 minutes per game, shooting 43 percent from three-point range (seven shots per game) and shooting 90 percent from the free throw line, helping the team to the league's second-best record. Even though Bane was confident in himself, he himself was surprised by his rapid growth and early success in the NBA.
"I think in a way, it really exceeded my expectations." Speaking about how you're performing better than you expected, Bane said, "Before you get into the league, you think,'I want to be in the NBA,' and when you're on the court, you think,' you think, 'What am I going to do to stay in the league.'" Last year I proved myself in a way. Then in the offseason they told me they thought I could play with the ball and take your game to the next level. I memorized these teachings and brought them into summer leagues, training camps, and I still don't forget them. ”
Evaluators who looked at Bain in the Big 12 leagues weren't surprised that he shot 43 percent from three-point range from such an emerging team during his rookie season. But his average score per game has risen nearly 10 points this season, with more than 28 points in nine games, and he is no longer just a point scorer, a change that has surprised many assessment experts. Bain has now become an offensive threat, creating space and running out of space with misaligned or low-post cover to catch three-pointers, mid-range stop jumpers, impact the basket or quickly read defense. According to Second Spectrum, Of the players who have used no-ball cover more than 700 times this season, Bain has the fifth-highest average score per game, behind Kevin Durant, Jaylen Brown, Jordan Poole and Patty Mills.
Bain has a deep understanding of the way almost every team defends every move. He also knows his teammates, that Brandon Clark prefers to slip screen, that Steven Adams has nuances in hand-passing, and that John Conchar is better at running without the ball than catching jumpers.
Bane's offensive performance after taking over the pass is also very good, he knows when to use the misalignment to play the big man, and he also knows how to use cross steps or false swings to "deceive" defenders before taking over the pass, so as to complete the empty three-pointer, mid-range jump shot or attack the basket. Of the 16 players who have used at least 400 hand-passing passes to attack this season, Bain has the third-highest average score per game, behind Doncic and Seth Curry, and even one position ahead of his closely studied opponent, Devin Booker. Bane was also able to pore over four or five of the rounds, and it was clear that this ability was a great help to his current success.
"Steven Adams stays in the near bottom corner and the opponent uses drop coverage (a defensive strategy that keeps big players in the box and forces the ball carrier into the middle range at the expense of an outside pitcher), so I knew I was going to get a three-point shot from the bottom corner." Bane said.
Bane also talked about the Warriors and Rockets' infinite change of defense strategy, as well as the Lone Ranger's defensive blocking, sometimes using the soft blitzes strategy (referring to the two defenders involved in the blocking to hit the defender together), and sometimes using the hedge strategy (referring to the defender delaying the ball carrier when blocking and dismantling). Knowledge of the teams' defensive strategies, combined with his ability to hold the ball, dribble shots, and read about defense on offense, allows Bane to act as a point guard in Ja Morant's absence.
In his rookie season, Bain averaged just 2.6 attacks per game by holding the ball, and his efficiency was at the bottom of the league (only 0.72 points per game), while this season Bain averaged nearly 7.5 blocks per game. While Bane can only rank 108th in points per round of the 130 players who often block offense, there's no doubt he's now grown from a Harris/Green-like potential shooter to a player who can occasionally play as a point guard. His ability to handle the ball in the block is a testament to his progress.
Bane can pass the ball to a downside teammate (after blocking) easily, or accurately to a teammate who is ambushed on the outside, or even to a teammate in the bottom corner of the weak side. He once gave Kyle Anderson a back pass, which caused a burst of laughter when he reviewed the video. But Bane was a perfectionist, and in our video conferences he would often pause the video of the game and then say that at that time he should have dribbled the ball directly with his left hand, rather than holding the ball in both hands and finally passing it with his right hand.
"All my passes are made after holding the ball in both hands." Bane said, "Those balls that should have been dribbled and passed directly, so that I could pull back when I was in offensive trouble, so as to open up space, face the opponent's big man, reorganize the attack, rather than passing after stopping the ball." ”
In the video conference, he also mentioned that he wanted to continue to improve his ability to block and dismantle, hoping to get more opportunities near the free throw line. He also hopes to improve his singles success rate, as most of his singles now end with a grudging three-point retreat, which is within his range, but the current success rate is not high. Since we examined him in college, Bane has grown at an astonishing rate. Three-pointers have become his regular weapon, with ball cover more comfortable, and right-handed throwing after jumping with his right foot. Bane's alma mater, TCU, is more focused on three-pointers and layups, and now he's back on his pre-college killer — the mid-range jumper. As a player who can actively create shooting opportunities, the mid-range jump shot can greatly improve his performance. So, now Bain thinks he should be the first player to be selected in 2020?
"The first few." Bain said, "I think it would be more realistic for me to be selected with the top five picks if I were to re-draft the team managers with some knowledge of my current performances. ”
While Bane admits he hasn't fully proven himself yet and knows that the playoffs are the real test for a great player, it's clear that he shouldn't have fallen all the way to the 30th pick on draft night to be selected. So, where did the scouts look away?
"(The scouts didn't see) my determination to keep improving." Bane said, "And my passion and love for the game. You need to play 82 games a season, and you need to love the game enough to stay in the league and become a high-level player in the league. Their determination in this regard was underestimated by them. You have to play games every other day, fly from one city to another, and there are a lot of distractions during the process. But you have to know that basketball has to always be in the first place in your head. ”
So far, this has been the case with Bane. The Grizzlies, as potential championship contenders, could go far in the playoffs, so Bane also has a chance to continue his excellent second-year performance. And thanks to his leaps and bounds on stats and his influence on the team, he has the potential to win the MIP (Player Award for Most Improved Player) this season.
Third place: Teres Halliburton Indiana Pacers
Season's stats: 15.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, 8.2 assists
At the age of 22, Halliburton already had a wide field view, excellent three-point shooting, combined with his versatility, basketball talent and overall efficient style of play, which put him in third place on this list. Since Harry Burton was traded to the Pacers by the Kings, his performance has been impressive. In his 24 games, he averaged 17.4 points and 9.6 assists per game, shooting 56 percent from the field and 42 percent from three-point range. Although he only helped his team win six of them, and the intensity of play for the downstream teams at the end of the season was far from the playoffs, Halliburton was the fourth player since 2000 to average at least 15 points per game and eight assists, 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point range (the remaining three were Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, and Steve Nash).
Halliburton is not a tough ball handler like Lamelo Ball, nor does he have the physical qualities and singles abilities of Anthony Edwards, which puts him behind these two 20-year-old stars. When he faces an elite-level defender who needs to create shooting opportunities on his own, his shortcomings in lack of strength and lack of control over the ball are exposed. But he has a soft shooting feel (both catch and dribble shots), and can throw and send wonderful passes, which makes him extremely efficient in moving the ball, and it is the smooth transfer of the ball that makes the Pacers' game more exciting in certain times.
As in college, Halliburton is still an efficiency star, as demonstrated by the recent game against the Celtics. The 6-foot-5 defender scored 30 points on just 11 shots in 25 minutes of playing time, including a three-pointer from 30 feet away and a silky throw against top defender Marcus Smart. He is also the league's third most efficient shooter in addition to two bottom-corner three-pointers, behind Bane and Kenard. He also has an excellent ability to read defense in blocking, and when the Pacers are all healthy and use this year's probably top five picks to pair with a great rookie, Halliburton will become more efficient next season.
While he's not considered a single defensive tip, his defensive and anticipatory abilities allow him to play a bigger role on the defensive end, which is more evident when he faces stronger defenders and wing players. But his shooting style is not very standard, he is used to holding the ball upright, likes to jump up and pass, and lacks confrontational ability on the defensive end, so scouts and evaluation experts have not known how Haliburton can smoothly transition from college to the NBA, which is part of the reason why he was selected with the 12th pick.
As he said in an interview with ESPN ahead of the October 2020 draft, "I do things differently. I never forced a shot. I don't force bad things to turn good things. I want to keep the best image at all times. I don't think other people are used to this. ”
In the nearly two years since he entered the league, Halliburton has clearly become one of the top young point guards, with the ability to connect teams that every coach dreams of. Halliburton was the cornerstone of the Pacers' backcourt, and he also had the chance to be selected as an All-Star once or twice at his peak.
Second place: Anthony Edwards Minnesota Timberwolves
Season numbers: 21.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists
While Edwards' performance is not yet stable, he has proved himself, he is the second-highest average scorer per game in a playoff team like the Timberwolves, and one of the brightest new stars in the league. Before entering the NBA, his scoring ability was unquestionable. Edwards slashed 37 points in the 2019 Maui Invitational against Michigan State, one of the most impressive solo performances I've seen live. His strength, explosiveness, bounce, large disguises and ability to dribble jump shots give him a wide upside and a chance to become a scoring champion in the future. While he's still young, he can easily create shooting opportunities, even against the top defenders in the NBA. His shortcomings are more in his commitment to defense, decision-making, and ability to play efficiently on a team that wins more than 50 percent (until this season, he played for teams that exceeded 50 percent for the first time, including high school, AUU, college, and the NBA).
After an ups and downs rookie season with a record of just 29 wins and 43 losses, Edwards responded to pre-draft doubts with performance. He's been relatively efficient, averaging 21.1 points per game and shooting 51 percent from the field and 36 percent from three-point range. He is also one of only six under-25s to have this statistic. Edwards is now more efficient than ever, in large part because his shots are more consistent. But he now has too many single jump shots in a physically unbalanced situation, which hinders the fluency of the team's offense and also prevents him from getting free throws. He is also one of only seven players in the league to have made more than 500 three-point shots in addition to two bottom corners. However, he has the fourth-highest effective shooting percentage of these seven players, behind Stephen Curry, Young and Fred VanVleet, and ahead of Buddy Hield, Donovan Mitchell and Tatum.
Given his 230-pound weight and fast foot movement, when he wants to accelerate, his explosive power to hit the basket is comparable to any defender in the league. Edwards is also improving in passing, and he now has more frequent one-handed passes and back-to-back passes than in the past. But he still has the habit of stopping the ball after receiving the ball, and he needs to learn how to handle the ball quickly after receiving the ball more efficiently, which is very important for the Timberwolves, who are seventh in the league in offensive efficiency.
What's more, he began to gradually become a good defender. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Timberwolves' defense was slightly better when Edwards was on the floor, something that simply could not have been imagined a year ago. But his relaxation and lack of focus in the no-ball situation is still common, a legacy of his rookie season, when the Timberwolves were third-to-last in the league in defensive efficiency. But in the second year of Edwards' career, the Timberwolves' performance on the defensive end changed, rising to 13th in the league, and Edwards also let us see his defensive potential.
While Edwards still has room to improve, he has shown the possibility that he can put pressure on players like Doncic, Tatum and Devin Booker. He's fast, he has long arms and he's powerful, a rare player. If he can play his defensive skills well in the playoffs, while remaining efficient and showing his ability to take over the game, there is no doubt that he may eventually become the best player of the class of 2020.
First place: Lamelo Ball Charlotte Hornets
Season stats: 19.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 7.6 assists
Since 2000, only three under-21 players have averaged at least 19 points, six rebounds and six assists per game in a single season, namely Doncic, James and three goals. While Doncic and James were able to get the numbers effortlessly, the fact that Three-Goal averaged 32.3 minutes per game in 72 games this season, contributing 19.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists to help the team reach the play-offs is enough to illustrate his talent and overall impact on the team.
After winning the rookie of the year with a wonderful pass, the three goals continued to show his excellent organizational skills. At the same time, his three-point shooting rate has also improved from 35% to 38%, and the assist-to-turnover ratio has remained stable. The Hornets guard has continued his one-handed bullet passes and no-looking pass this season, which is rare in NBA history where a guard has dared to pass the ball so boldly. Of the players who have made at least 250 shots this season, he is the 9th most efficient at three goals, thanks to his shooting speed and strong confidence. By the time they reach their peak, three goals are likely to be the best passers in the world. He also doesn't take up too much ball, much like many star point guards. His fixed-point shooting ability and height allow him to be on the floor with other defenders, which is a good sign for him and the team's long-term development.
However, three goals are not perfect. He often plays a "gamble"-style defensive, and the Hornets are only 24th in the league in defensive efficiency, having both scored 144 points in two recent consecutive games against the 76ers and the Heat. Compared to receiving three-pointers, his stop-and-go jump shots were not stable and reliable enough, which limited his performance in singles situations. His ability to finish and create fouls also needs to be improved. But his basketball talent, court vision, dexterous dribbling, long-range shooting ability, throwing ability, and helping teams break into the playoffs for two consecutive seasons have made him a success on this list.
Talent was never an issue for three goals, but more importantly his durability and influence on winning. Ball is one of only three Hornets players to have played more than 70 games so far this season, ranking in the team's top three in terms of points, rebounds, assists, steals and playing time. While Edwards has an excellent ability to create shooting opportunities and the increasingly balanced offensive and defensive abilities shown on playoff teams, Ball can still occupy the top spot of the 2020 rookie list, thanks to his ability to make his teammates better.
Nominated: Sadik Bay Detroit Pistons
Season's stats: 16.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists
In 2020, the Pistons selected Sadiq Bay with the 19th pick, and it turned out that they had found the treasure. As a 6'8 winger, he can pull out of space and is the perfect partner for Cade Cunningham. He is only 22 years old and has already scored 50 points in a single game. While he's primarily a scorer and doesn't have the versatility of the five players, it's hard not to nominate him given his efficiency.
By Mike Schmitz
Compilation: Can't hold the basket at all