Tesla's 2022 Q1 performance information and conference call has a lot of information, the main points are as follows -
1) Financial: Total revenue in the first quarter was $18.76 billion, of which auto business revenue was $16.86 billion, an increase of 87% year-on-year; gross margin was 32.9%, an increase of 24% year-on-year, under the global supply shortage, Tesla's car prices began to increase, and the number of deliveries was also increasing; the first quarter net profit was $3.280 billion, compared with the net profit of $464 million in the same period last year.
2) Vehicle sales: Q1 total sales of 310,000 units, an increase of 68% year-on-year, of which Model 3&Y sales of 295,300 units, an increase of 62% year-on-year, accounting for 95%; Model S/X sales of 14,700 units, an increase of 625% year-on-year. Elon Musk said Tesla is confident of growing at least 50% (producing 1.5 million cars) from 2021. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the Shanghai factory lost a month's output (estimated 60,000-70,000 units), and is currently working hard to resume full production, and customers who order now wait for the car for a very long time, and some orders will not be able to get the car until next year. There are currently 3724 charging stations, of which there are 33657 charging piles, and the current growth rate of Tesla super charging piles and vehicle growth rates are relatively large.
3) The current annual production capacity of each plant: the Model S&X in California is 100,000 units, the Model 3&Y is 500,000 units; the Model 3&Y in Shanghai is more than 450,000 units (estimated to exceed 850,000 units this year); the Berlin plant (the same area as Shanghai) and the Texas plant (the world's largest) production capacity is climbing, with deliveries increasing by an average of 50% per year in the next few years.
4) Supply chain restrictions: Factories have been operating below capacity for several consecutive quarters, and the price of some parts has been rising by 20%.
Figure 1 Quarterly information for Tesla
Part 1: Information in the report
At the manufacturing level, the model Y front and rear body are all integrated die-casting technology (casting almost two-thirds of the body), compared to the Model 3's 171 parts, model Y front and rear die casting parts, into 2 parts, reducing 1600 weld points. On the Cybertrek, there are 25-30% fewer parts than conventional pickups. Since scrap aluminum is recycled for the manufacture of castings, the impact is not significant from a yield point of view. At the Texas plant, aluminum scrap goes directly from the press shop to the foundry.
Figure 2 Tesla's integrated casting simplifies parts
The Texas plant will produce the Model Y with 4680 batteries and currently using 2170 battery packs in 2022, and since the Shanghai plant is currently 70% lithium iron phosphate and 30% is ternary lithium batteries, this makes Tesla more than 40% of new cars equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries in the first quarter. The capacity climb of Tesla's Berlin factory is also relatively slow, currently producing 350 Model Ys per week, and the goal is to reach a capacity of 1,000 vehicles per week by the end of April 2022.
Figure 3 Tesla's Texas factory is also the ultimate embodiment of American rapid thinking
Tesla hopes to expand the capacity of its Berlin plant to about 5,000-10,000 units per week by the end of 2022 (corresponding to 20,000-40,000 units per month). From the current forecast, about 30,000-50,000 cars will be produced at the new plant in Berlin this year, and it will be able to climb the hill effectively in 2023. The German-made Model Y currently uses the 2170 battery (part of LG's battery shipping past) and is shut down for 3 weeks at Q3 for retrofitting, and I heard that this 2170 battery is a new variant, similar to the module transition to the 4680 structure.
Figure 4 Battery configuration update
As all U.S. car companies begin to advertise in the Super Bowl, and Tesla, which does not advertise, also benefits after the Super Bowl, the dividend of this faucet is still very obvious.
Figure 5 Orders in the United States
Powerwall demand was driven, with 846MWh of new installed capacity in Q1, up 90% year-on-year. The Megapack factory is expanding capacity, while Tesla's giant Megapack energy storage project "Townsite Solar and Storage Facility" will become the infrastructure for the new grid in the future, with a capacity of 360MWh, and each Megapack can store 3MWh of energy at a time. Located in Boulder, Nevada, the project can produce 500,000 MWh per year, power 60,000 homes and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 400,000 tons.
Part 2: Additional technical information
The problem of autonomous driving has been shouted from 2016 to the present, and the overall difficulty of releasing the FSD beta to all U.S. car owners by the end of this year is more difficult than Elon Musk predicted. From the perspective of business model, Tesla is also developing Robot Taxi, Tesla according to its own model of the automatic driving is highly optimized, the design does not have a steering wheel, acceleration / brake pedal, on the basis of the original optimization cost problem, 2023 sample car, is expected to land in 2024. This has a greater impact on other companies around the world that do Robot taxi.
Figure 6 Tesla's progress in autopilot is still very fast
From the perspective of upgrading from 400V to 800V, Elon Musk believes that the 800V has limited advantages for Tesla (a 400V SiC has been deployed), but the cost increase is obvious (on the side of the car and charging facilities), and it needs to be mass-produced and delivered to amortize the cost. That is to say, Tesla's previous research on 800V is not undo, but from the perspective of cost assessment, it has not yet reached that point.
Figure 7 Tesla's future high-end platform may also be upgraded to 800V
brief summary:
Tesla's combat effectiveness, after showing strong profitability, is a huge challenge to all car companies around the world, the money saved by the traditional lean production model, compared to the money earned by pioneering and innovating, the entire growth rate and ceiling are completely different.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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