I Global Macroeconomic and Commodity Markets Weekly Report: MF Cuts World Economic Growth Expectations Major currencies have fluctuated sharply

Part I: Interpretation of the Domestic Economy

Domestically, industrial added value fell back in March, investment rebounded, and consumption fell sharply. Infrastructure is still the main force driving investment and aggregate demand, the manufacturing industry has remained stable for the time being, and real estate and consumption have been affected by the epidemic. It is expected that the scope and extent of the impact of the economic data in April will expand, and the growth rate of output and demand may further decline, especially the consumption risk is larger. For the time being, it is believed that the economy is still in the trend of active destocking, and it is expected that the epidemic will end in May, the economy will begin to recover, and the trend of economic bottoming out in the middle of the year will remain unchanged, but the depth will exceed expectations. The central bank conducted a small net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan of liquidity in open market operations this week. After the MLF interest rate was not cut and the RRR was cut less than expected, the LPR also remained unchanged this week. The pace of monetary policy easing began to slow. At the Boao Forum for Asia, national leaders stressed the need to adhere to open and stable supply chains. The State Council issued a document proposing to pay personal pensions for the purchase of financial products, including public funds. The domestic epidemic situation continues to improve, and the new cases in Shanghai and other places show a downward trend. In addition, the recent sharp weakening of the RMB exchange rate may be related to the bearish impact of the Sino-US interest rate differential, poor economic expectations, and net exports in April. The central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on financial support for the real economy, and continued to emphasize increasing epidemic prevention, financial support and guarantee of the supply chain. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to support new energy vehicles and encourage local governments to carry out home appliances going to the countryside and replacing old ones with new ones. The US SEC has added 17 Chinese companies to the list of delisting risks, and the issue of Chinese stock supervision in China and the United States is still a bearish factor. Overall, the risks to the domestic economy have declined in the short term, but they have not yet been fully lifted.

In terms of risk events, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places continued to improve, and the number of new cases continued to decline. Shanghai issued guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises resuming work and production, some industries began to resume work, and logistics in the city gradually resumed. However, the impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy in April will be very significant, and the economic data will fall back more than expected in the later stage.

In addition, the recent sharp weakening of the RMB exchange rate may be related to the impact of the US-China interest rate differential, poor economic expectations, poor policies, and the risk of a decline in net exports in April. Combined with the overall decline in stocks, bonds, and exchange rates and the decrease in foreign-held financial assets, the outflow of overseas funds is obvious, which may have a sustained negative impact on the domestic economy and financial markets.

Part II: Interpretation of overseas economies

First, the IMF has lowered the global economic growth rate

On April 19, the IMF again lowered its 2022 world economic growth forecast in a new edition of its Global Economic Prospects Report, down from 4.4% forecast in January report to 3.6%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, unlike the January report, which "lowered the 2022 economic growth forecast and raised the 2023 economic growth forecast", the April report also lowered the economic growth forecast for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%. There are many reasons for the increased downward pressure on world economic growth, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions and counter-sanctions, the resurgence of the epidemic, high inflation, tightening of monetary policy, debt crisis, geopolitics, supply chain crisis, climate issues and other reasons. The vast majority of problems continue in 2021 and are partially alleviated, but more are intensifying. According to the index released by JPMorgan Chase, it can be seen that the global composite PMI in the first quarter of this year was 52.4, which is still in the expansion range, but the overall decline is obvious. In January this year, the global single-day new confirmed cases reached a historical peak, and the PMI only recorded 51.1; in February, many countries in the world lifted the complete prevention and control measures of the epidemic, and the PMI rebounded to 53.4; but with the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine and the continuous escalation of the conflict, the PMI fell back to 52.7 again in March.

Compared with the 0.6% expected decline in advanced economies this year, the decline in emerging and developing countries is even greater, reaching 1%. Mainly because Russia and Ukraine, the countries directly involved in the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, are emerging economies and developing countries, and both countries will suffer from conflicts or sanctions, and the economy will experience negative growth, which will reduce the growth rate of the entire developing economy. Among them, Russia's GDP will shrink by 8.5% this year, and Ukraine will shrink by at least 35%. In addition, the food crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a more direct threat to developing countries, raising the cost of living for many countries and reducing already limited foreign exchange reserves.

Among the advanced economies, European countries have the most significant downward revisions in their economic growth forecasts this year, with the euro area and the United Kingdom being cut by 1.1 and 1 percentage point respectively by the IMF. Although the Eu and the United Kingdom have taken the initiative to impose multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, the damage to the domestic economy is also very large, Europe's dependence on Russia's energy is quite high, and the lack of oil and gas not only affects the people's livelihood in Europe but also affects production. In addition, the influx of large numbers of Ukrainian refugees into Eastern Europe will put enormous pressure on social stability and supply security in those countries. Although the economic ties between the United States and Russia are limited, the situation in Ukraine will also weaken the growth expectations of the United States economy, the IMF will cut the economic growth rate of the United States in 2022 by 0.3 percentage points, while high inflation and fiscal deficits have seriously prompted the Fed to accelerate the process of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, which is negative for the US economic development.

Among emerging and developing countries, although India was cut by 0.8 percentage points by the IMF, India's GDP growth rate still reached 8.2% in absolute terms, the fastest growth rate among major economies. The downward revision of the five ASEAN countries is only 0.3 percentage points, and the actual expected growth rate can also reach 5.3%. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic, with low labor and land costs, India and ASEAN have successfully recovered manufacturing orders that were previously displaced overseas, and the overall economic situation this year is optimistic. China's economic growth rate was further reduced to 4.4%, the domestic epidemic re-ignited in March and April, and there was a long-term static management in many places, especially in Shanghai, factory shutdowns and employees working from home, resulting in supply chain disruptions and export restrictions, thus affecting economic development. Brazil is the only country to have its GDP growth rate increased, the country mainly exports soybeans, iron ore and other agricultural and mining resources, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a surge in global grain and commodity prices, which is conducive to Brazil to expand the scale of exports and increase export prices, thereby significantly increasing fiscal revenue.

The IMF also warns that the current global rate hike cycle will pose a more potential threat to emerging market and developing economies than the deflation in 2013 due to sharply rising debt ratios. Middle-income emerging-market economies have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent in 2021, up from 40 percent in the 2013 austerity scare, and low-income emerging market economies have a higher median debt, nearly double that of 2013. Against this backdrop, interest payments in emerging market and developing economies are likely to rise sharply as interest rate hikes lead to higher borrowing costs, putting pressure on national budgets and making debt service increasingly difficult, with about 60 per cent of low-income developing countries already in debt distress or high-risk distress.

Second, the exchange rate fluctuations of major global currencies have intensified

1. The US index will continue to maintain an upward channel

Recently, the dollar index has continued to climb, reaching 100.3367 on April 12, breaking through the 100 mark for the first time since May 15, 2020, and reaching 101.1233 on April 22, a new high in nearly five years. The currency composition of the US dollar index is the euro (57.6%), the Japanese yen (13.6%), the British pound (11.9%), the Canadian dollar (9.1%), the Swedish krona (4.2%), and the Swiss franc (3.6%). The sharp rise in the dollar index actually reflects the appreciation of the dollar against the six major currencies. From a month-on-month perspective, the US dollar has appreciated by different degrees against the euro, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc; from the April point of view alone, the US dollar against the yen and the Swedish krona are also in the appreciation channel.

Due to sanctions and counter-sanctions triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the economic expectations of the world's major economies have rebounded. Thanks to the relatively low economic tightness between the United States and Russia, the United States has been much less affected than Europe and Japan, and the GDP growth rate in 2022 and the overall PMI in March are also higher than in Europe, Japan and Canada. In addition, inflation in the United States is growing faster than in other advanced economies, and the Fed's monetary policy will be more hawkish than the central banks of these economies. This week, Fed Mp. Daley said that "the possibility of a 50BP rate hike in May is very high, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates to neutral levels by the end of the year, the labor market has reached the point of bubbles, and the Fed can definitely announce relevant actions against the balance sheet in May." According to the federal funds rate futures and overnight index swap implied interest rates, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 244BP, 85BP, 161BP, and 211BP respectively in the next 8 months of this year, and the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates this year. Against the backdrop of global monetary tightening, Japan and China are the only two major global economies in the world to maintain accommodative monetary policy, so usd/JPY continues to appreciate, reaching 128.6 on April 22, a new high in nearly 10 years.

Thanks to a stronger economy and more hawkish monetary policy, the dollar index has generally continued this year, with it expected to break through the previous high of 102.6681 in May and continue to hit the 110 high in the second half of the year. However, during the period, if the Ecbbank and the Bank of England announce hawkish remarks or decisions, the dollar index will pull back in stages, but the correction is relatively limited.

2. The rmb is under short-term pressure for a long time

Since March 1 this year, the dollar-yuan exchange rate has entered an appreciation channel, and the median price on April 22 recorded 6.4596, an appreciation of 2.5% in the past two months. The 2-year and 5-year Treasury yields in China and the United States were inverted on April 1, and the 10-year Treasury yield, which is more valued by the market, was inverted on April 14. This round of RMB depreciation and the inversion of US and Chinese government bond yields are mainly affected by the fed's expectations of accelerating monetary policy tightening and the resurgence of The epidemic in China.

The pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi will continue for some time. From the perspective of US fundamentals, indicators such as inflation levels, unemployment rates, and PMI have not shifted significantly, and the Fed will maintain a strong monetary policy, most likely to open a balance sheet reduction at the Interest Rate Conference in May, and it is possible to increase the monthly balance sheet reduction to the upper limit of $96 billion in three months. From the perspective of Chinese fundamentals, the epidemic has restricted the normal operation of the current production and supply chain, the economy has been affected, foreign trade exports have declined, and the People's Bank of China has opened a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the RRR, which may further cut interest rates in the future, so the inversion of the Sino-US interest rate differential and the slight weakness of the renminbi against the US dollar will continue for a long period of time. However, in the long run, China's economic growth rate is still faster than that of the United States, once the epidemic control after China's exports will rebound strongly, China will maintain a large trade surplus, while the current account and direct investment and other basic balance of payments surplus will still maintain a certain scale, will play a role in stabilizing cross-border capital flows. Moreover, the People's Bank of China has abundant foreign exchange reserves, which can play a role in stabilizing the foreign exchange rate.

Third, inflation in Europe continues to hit record highs

In March 2022, the EUROZONE HICP recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% and a month-on-month growth rate of 2.5%, both of which hit the highest since the index was announced in January 1997; in the same month, the UK CPI growth rate recorded 7% year-on-year, a new 30-year high, the previous high can be traced back to 7% in January 1992; the month-on-month growth rate recorded 1.1%, a new 24-year high.

From the perspective of CPI sub-item, energy is the most critical factor driving high inflation in Europe, with a year-on-year growth rate of 44.38%, a record high in the sub-item; the UK's electricity, natural gas and other fuel CPI growth rate recorded 24.8% year-on-year, fixed fuel CPI growth rate recorded 11.3%, both hit a record high since the release of the sub-index. On February 24, Russia took special military action against Ukraine, which immediately triggered a sharp rise in global energy prices, in March the United States announced the implementation of energy bans on Russia and the European Union's multiple rounds of sanctions and counter-sanctions on Russia led to a mismatch between energy supply and demand and exacerbated market panic, the average price of OPEC package crude oil in the month was 113.5 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 176% year-on-year; the average price of thermal coal in the European port of ARA reached 216.7 US dollars / ton, an increase of 217% year-on-year. The average price of IPE UK natural gas futures reached 311.84 pence/som, up 601% year-on-year. Transport was the second biggest factor driving inflation in Europe, with year-over-year growth in the eurozone and the UK reaching 14.6% and 13.4% respectively. According to the consolidated freight price index released by Drewry, the average price of container transportation in Shanghai → Europe reached $12033/FEU in March this year, an increase of 53% year-on-year. As Europe began to gradually loosen the restrictions on the complete control of the epidemic in late January, people's travel increased, and even a tendency to retaliate, the CPI of railway, road and air passenger transport in the euro area increased by -0.1%, 3.2% and 4.4% year-on-year, and the CPI of the United Kingdom in these three items increased by 2.9%, 3% and 0.5% year-on-year. Due to chip shortages, insufficient car production and increased overlay travel, car purchases in the euro area and the UK increased by 6.2% and 14.6% year-on-year.

From a PPI perspective, the UK's industrial output price index in March recorded 11.84% year-on-year, a new high in nearly 13 years; in February, the euro area recorded a record high of 31.4%.

As Russia and Ukraine enter the decisive battle phase in Eastern Ukraine, the European Union threatened to impose a sixth round of sanctions on Russia, which would involve oil and gas, and Russia also threatened to adopt the countermeasure of "rubles to settle natural gas, yuan to settle oil". The European energy crisis will intensify, and European energy prices will remain high for a long time. With inflation both current and expected high, the ECB has released more hawkish rhetoric within itself. ECB Regulatory Commissioner Cazaks said this week that "due to significant inflation risks, the ECB needs to tighten monetary policy further, possibly raising interest rates as soon as July, and it seems appropriate to raise interest rates by 25BP at the moment". This is the first time that senior ECB officials have given a clear point in time for raising interest rates.

Part III: Review of the week's key events and data

Part IV Next Week's Key Events and Data Tips

Part V: A Weekly Brief Review of the Futures Market

First, plate interpretation

Financial futures sector	This week, the domestic real economy data in the first quarter was released, the downward pressure on the domestic economy increased under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of industry, investment and consumption fell in March, the unemployment rate in urban surveys rose, and the pressure on domestic stable growth increased. In terms of policy, the domestic policy support for the real economy has increased significantly, and the central bank has comprehensively reduced the RRR by 0.25 percentage points, while an additional targeted RRR reduction of 0.25% for some small and medium-sized banks, and the RRR reduction policy has been cashed in, but the strength is slightly lower than market expectations. Overseas, the fed policy tightening speed accelerated, the dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded rapidly, the dollar index stood at 100, the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 2.9%, the inversion of the Sino-US Treasury bond spread deepened, and the recent depreciation of the renminbi accelerated, which put pressure on the valuation level of the domestic financial market. From the perspective of financial futures and options markets, Treasury futures: short-term domestic wide credit expectations, pressure on government bond issuance, and inversion of The Us-Us interest rate differential continue to constrain Treasury performance. However, we believe that in the environment of economic weakness and policy easing, domestic bond market yields still lack an upward basis for the time being, and treasuries are still at the end of the bull market. Stock index futures: short orders can be gradually closed during the decline, long light positions can be bottomed out, and medium- and long-term IF and IH can choose the opportunity to make up positions. In terms of cash arbitrage, the space for reverse hedging at the far end of the IC is slightly more than 7%, and the cost is still suitable for participation. In terms of cross-symbols, the IH/IC price comparison and spread continue to rise significantly, the medium- and long-term trend is upward, and it will continue to do long IH/IC price comparison during the year. Stock and stock index options: volatility returns to the middle, volatility is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the later stage, and the medium-term short volatility strategy is mainly based, or sell far-month virtual put options. Commodity options, commodity options of each target of the trend of the weakening, for some of the high volatility level of the varieties can continue to participate in the short volatility strategy. Directional strategies recommend adopting a spread strategy to respond to the range market. For futures positions, it is recommended to use the option insurance strategy to do a good job in risk management, and continue to recommend reducing costs and enhancing returns through the method of backup.
Maritime sector	This week, the international container shipping market continued to retreat, with WCI Shanghai to Rotterdam and Long Beach freight rates recording $10364/FEU and $8758/FEU respectively, down 2% and 0.3% week-on-week. The international dry bulk shipping market continued to rebound, with BDI recording 2239 points, up 4.8% week-on-week. Among them, BCI, BPI, BSI and BHSI recorded 1636, 3047, 2646 and 1473 points respectively, up 10.5%, 0.2%, 6% and 1.7% week-on-week. The domestic dry bulk transport market rushed higher and fell, and the CBCFI coastal coal and iron ore freight rates recorded 737.8 points and 767.49 points, up 7.8% and 0.4% week-on-week.
Non-ferrous precious metal plates	[Non-ferrous metals] This week's colored strong fluctuations are dominant. The Federal Reserve hawkish statement continues to boost the strength of the DOLLAR index, the domestic central bank's RRR cut is less than the market expectations, the recent RMB exchange rate showed a depreciation tendency, non-ferrous metals under pressure. Geopolitical risks and low inventories continue to support high volatility in non-ferrous metals. The focus of the follow-up market is on the specific progress of the domestic resumption of work and production. Although some areas of the sealing measures have slowed down, downstream copper started to rebound last week, but terminal cables, real estate, construction, etc. are still sluggish, shanghai and its surrounding areas are also facing port logistics blockages and difficulties in returning to work, the state of weak demand in the future is likely to continue for a period of time, overall, after China's macro bullish factors are released, the game of strong expectations and weak reality may lead to copper prices returning to the trend of wide oscillations, unilateral attention to control positions, options recommend buying volatility strategies. Since April, LME zinc stocks have continued to go to the warehouse, hitting a new low in 22 months, among which the large-scale withdrawal of inventory by Tok and the large-scale increase in cancelled warehouse receipts have caused market congestion concerns to a certain extent. In short, in the short term, the geopolitical risk premium still exists and the domestic resumption of production is expected to make the zinc market still maintain a strong shock judgment in the future, the current stage is still not recommended to short, in view of the situation is easy to repeat, more than a single attention to control the position, option buy volatility strategy. At present, under the influence of the epidemic, the encouragement to resume work has gradually increased, the willingness to purchase aluminum has gradually recovered, the social inventory has once again been de-emphasized to support aluminum prices, the current Shanghai aluminum disk surface is high-level shock, it is recommended to add more to the appropriate amount of each pullback, the pressure level above the 06 contract is 24000, the support level below is 20000, and the option side can consider the double selling strategy to earn royalty income. In terms of options, a double sell strategy can be considered to earn royalty gains. The logistics of the main domestic nickel trade places have not returned to normal, temporary demand has also been affected, supply and demand have been weak, the recent inversion of the internal and external disks has narrowed, the domestic main contract is still strong in the short term, this week twice rebounded to above 240,000, short-term caution is more than the idea, more than 230,000 yuan for the short-term long-short watershed. At present, the resumption of work and production and logistics and transportation are gradually recovering, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production in the past week, and the marginal improvement of follow-up demand is still weak. In terms of inventory, as enterprises in the epidemic area start to resume work and production, domestic inventories have turned from rising to falling, and the global total inventory is in a low-level shock trend, which supports tin prices, and the marginal improvement of short-term demand, but the overall demand is still weak, tin price shocks are strong, and it is expected that the Shanghai tin operating range will be 325,000-360,000. With the outbreak of enterprises in the epidemic area to start the resumption of work and production, this week the domestic lead ingot inventory fell sharply, boosting lead prices, but the epidemic situation improved at the same time, the supply will also grow, April is still the battery replacement off-season, the domestic lead battery consumption is weak, the epidemic has led to greater pressure on automobile production and sales, technically, Shanghai lead is still in a range shock, pay attention to the upper pressure level of 15800-16000 performance, below the support of 14900. 【Precious Metals】 The progress of the geopolitical situation and the new signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will continue to dominate the precious metals market. The situation is good and the hawks turn to a neutral negative precious metal, and vice versa. Geopolitics is difficult to achieve substantial relief in the short term, the Fed's policy tightening is also prone to bearish and bearish effects, liquidity is still flooded, high inflation has not yet undergone a substantial change, and precious metals have maintained a volatile and strong market after digesting the latest progress of the Fed in the short term. At present, it is still not recommended to short precious metals in the trend, and it is still the core of the operation to do long at a low price. The Fed's accelerated tightening of monetary policy expectations put precious metals under pressure, gold short-term support is still in the range of 1900-1918 US dollars / ounce, the core support level is near 1870 US dollars / ounce; if the geopolitical situation and inflation are not substantially good, gold still has room to rise, above continue to pay attention to the 2000 US dollars / ounce mark and 2070 US dollars / ounce before the high position; Shanghai gold continues to pay attention to the 420 yuan / gram mark, the future does not rule out the possibility of rising to 454 yuan / gram The lower support level is in the range of 387-390 yuan / g. Spot silver closely follows the trend of gold, focusing below on the annual line of $24.46 /oz (5080 yuan/kg), the core support level is at the $24/oz mark (5000 yuan/kg); above continue to focus on the previous high of $27/oz (5420 yuan/kg). Pay close attention to the geopolitical situation, do not recommend trend shorting, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips.
Black building materials plate	Ferrous metals fell back to highs this week, and the Wind Coal coking Steel Index closed negative for the first time in nearly 8 weeks. In terms of varieties, the decline in raw materials is higher, the finished products are slightly weaker, the profits are expanding, and stainless steel is slightly rising. Logically, this week's market is affected by the Economic Data in March, and the weak real estate demand expectations are affected; the second is that the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will continue to implement the production reduction policy this year and ensure that the annual output declines, which puts the charge under pressure. From the perspective of the degree of impact, the impact of the production reduction policy on the supply in the second quarter is limited, and the output of crude steel and molten iron may even increase slightly, so in the case of weak demand for finished timber, whether there is negative feedback in the industrial chain still needs to pay attention to the peak point of molten iron production and the recovery of scrap and coal and coke supply, due to the low output of finished products, so the probability of short-term sharp adjustment of black commodities is still low, but it is necessary to increase the attention to spot demand after May Day, due to the weakness of the real estate market, resulting in doubts about the improvement of downstream demand, Therefore, if demand remains poor in May, the overall pressure on black goods may increase.
Petrochemical sector	This week, the IMF lowered its global economic growth prospects, crude oil fell in a narrow range, and the trend of petrochemicals diverged, rising and falling. Energy varieties with strong correlation with crude oil, such as fuel oil and LPG, recorded declines, while chemicals performed strongly supported by supply contraction. Looking forward to the future, the supply and demand structure of crude oil will remain tight, and oil prices will maintain high shocks; energy varieties still mainly follow cost fluctuations, and the tight supply of chemicals and weak demand are still dominated by narrow range shocks.
Coal chemical sector	The delivery month is approaching, the market funds are gradually transferred, and the main contracts of the coal chemical industry are moved to the front month contract, and the trend is weaker than that of the previous period. In terms of varieties, thermal coal and urea are horizontally sorted and extended, but thermal coal transactions are not active, and other varieties are adjusted to varying degrees. Recently, the coal chemical industry has been deadlocked, and the trend is not obvious. In the later stage, the upstream coal is still slightly stronger, in the case of low inventory, the coking coal futures price is still supported, and the low order of the 09 contract can be appropriately reduced in operation, waiting for the opportunity to intervene after the end of the pullback. Coal prices have limited room to go down, the cost has a certain support for coke, and the low long order of the 09 contract can be appropriately reduced in operation, waiting for the opportunity to intervene after the end of the pullback. The fundamentals of thermal coal are relatively light, and before the epidemic situation has seen a significant improvement, it is recommended to maintain the idea of short operation, and the appropriate amount of short space can be added at a high level. In 2022, the supply and demand situation of soda ash will be significantly tight due to the delay in the commissioning of new plants, and soda ash is expected to maintain a strong trend. In the next period, we will focus on the destocking of the industrial chain during the downturn of the disk. Methanol upward lack of drive, the entry of short orders can be reduced in an appropriate amount around 2850, and the swing operation is dominant. In the second quarter, the market demand is expected to recover, and it has not yet been forced and takes time to process, pvc futures high shock washing, the space below or limited. The short-term price of urea breaks through the technical pressure level, the small cycle running range moves up, and the speculative disk can support the short-term operation at 2780-2800.
Feed farming sector	The overall trend of feed cost prices this week was firm, and the weighted futures prices of corn, soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose or fell by 0.61%, 3.41% and 0.25% respectively during the week. Corn is affected by wheat, rice stop auction price increase belt, protein meal market with the rise of U.S. beans, the main trading logic of U.S. beans is still the second and third quarters of the tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate. Next week, the trend of corn and soybean rape meal is still strong to look at; the trend of the breeding end during the week is strong, and the weighted futures prices of pigs and eggs rose by 12.31% and 1.59%, mainly because the southern pig group enterprises held up the price, driving the nationwide price and retail sales, the high price transaction volume is not high, the current pig and fertile sows Are absolutely high, saying that the price reversal is too early, and more than one single cautiously held in September. Egg spot prices are driven by feed costs, still at a high level, but egg prices after the rise of consumption has signs of weakening, eggs in the near future need to be vigilant in the case of consumption in the pre-position, the risk of spot high decline increases, especially the domestic epidemic situation shows a slow spread trend, terminal consumption before May Day or difficult to say optimistic; oil and fat, the weekly increase is larger, one is the global oil supply is tight, and geopolitical factors are likely to adversely affect the cultivation of Ukrainian sunflower seeds and rapeseed in April and May, Second, the good crushing profits of U.S. beans drive the crushing volume of U.S. beans to hit a new high in the same period of history, and the strong demand for U.S. beans makes the price of U.S. beans run at a high level. With the expected sharp increase in labor employment in Malaysia, palm oil inventories are expected to stop falling and recover, forming some pressure on the high oil futures price, but the overall oil is still strong, cautious investors can consider partial take profits, steady and aggressive investors consider long orders to continue to hold.
Fresh and soft commodities segment	This week's trend of fresh fruits is divided, with dates performing strongly and apples performing weakly. From the perspective of the apple market, the production areas have successively entered the flowering period, the weather fluctuations are stable, the speculation is expected to cool down, and the futures price continues to fall at a high level; from the perspective of the jujube market, the cost support is prominent, and the futures price is low. In the later stage, apple spot prices and new fruit production expectations are still the main focus of the market, and the futures price continues to have downward space or limited; from the perspective of the jujube market, the supply is still tightly supported, and there is a basis for upward correction of the futures price. Soft commodity trends have also diverged this week, with rubber continuing to bottom out, pulp continuing to be strong, and sugar and cotton oscillating. From the perspective of the rubber market, the weak demand side continues to exert pressure, and the futures price continues to bottom; in the pulp market, the supply disturbance is still in place, the superimposed RMB depreciation causes the cost to move up, and the futures price is high; the white sugar market is in the domestic sugar production end, while consumption enters the off-season, the futures price continues to fluctuate narrowly; the cotton market, the game between cost and consumption continues, and the futures price is strong. In the later stage, the relative support of the supply side is still there, the pulp futures price or continue to fluctuate in the high range; the game between the cost and consumption of the cotton market continues, and the futures price continues to fluctuate; the sugar is facing the game of seasonal decline in supply and the off-season demand, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate; the rubber market needs to pay attention to the changes in the epidemic, the epidemic situation in the later period gradually improves, the consumption is expected to be repaired, and the futures price may bottom out.

Second, the interpretation of varieties

Stock index	【Market review】During the week, the market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index mainly fell more on Wednesday and Thursday, rebounded slightly from the low opening and high on Friday, and the average daily turnover fell significantly during the week, and the 300 and 50 were still significantly stronger than 500. In terms of industry, Shenwan's first-level industry fell almost all the way during the week, and only one industry, textile and apparel, rose, and the industry gap narrowed. The banking sector is the main factor stabilizing the 300 and 50, while power equipment and electronics are a drag on the above index. 500 are supported by utilities and transportation. The futures market situation shows that the annualized premium rate of IF, IH and IC quarterly contracts has increased, the annualized premium rate of other term contracts has declined, and the annualized discount rate of IC remote contracts is still more than 7%. The IH/IC price comparison and spread across terms continue to rise, and the medium- and long-term trend is still a volatile upward trend. In terms of trading positions, if, IH and IC contracts have increased at the end of the period but the average daily volume has declined, and the wait-and-see sentiment and hedging demand have increased. In terms of funds, the outflow of major index funds is different, and overseas funds are basically flat every day. [Important information] On the news side, the US economy maintained growth, the Federal Reserve released hawkish strengthening, including Chairman Powell and other officials stressed that may or cut interest rates by 50BP, control inflation is the primary goal. The market's expectations for a 50BP interest rate hike in the next three meetings have risen significantly, and directly limit the rebound of US stocks, making US stocks rush higher and fall, and the impact on the domestic market is bearish. On the domestic side, the industrial added value fell back and investment rebounded in March, and both exceeded market expectations, but consumption fell sharply due to the impact of the epidemic. It is expected that the scope and extent of the economic impact will expand in April, especially the consumption risk is larger, and the market is still facing potential bearishness. The central bank's net return of 10 billion liquidity in the open market during the week. After the MLF interest rate was not lowered and the RRR cut was less than expected, the LPR remained unchanged. The pace of monetary policy easing has begun to slow down, which is an important factor leading to the decline of stock indexes. The State Council issued a document proposing to pay personal pensions for the purchase of financial products, including public funds, which can bring financial benefits to the medium- and long-term market, but has no short-term impact. The central bank, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission, etc. have all put forward policies to stabilize the supply chain and stabilize demand. The domestic epidemic situation continues to improve, and the new cases in Shanghai and other places show a downward trend. The RMB exchange rate has weakened sharply, and combined with the market pattern of the comprehensive adjustment of equity and debt exchange, the outflow of foreign capital is having a significant negative impact on the market. In addition, the United States has added 17 Chinese-listed companies to the list of delisting risks, and the issue of China-US supervision of Chinese stocks is still a bearish factor. Overall, the risk of the continued impact of the domestic economy on the epidemic has declined but has not been completely lifted in the short term. Monetary policy fell short of expectations, and the regulatory divergence between China and the United States and the potential outflow of foreign capital led to the weakening of the stock index. In the medium and long term, the weakening of the economy under pressure needs to be changed, the fundamental expectations are not strong for the market, and we continue to pay attention to the easing policy and the post-epidemic economic performance, especially the performance of real estate and overseas risks. 【Strategy Suggestion】Technically, the Weekly Candlestick of the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply, and the main technical indicators weakened across the board. The short-term trend is weak and ushers in a second bottoming, continue to pay attention to the support above the low before 3023 points, and the upper pressure is still 3300 points. In the medium term, the trend is still weak, waiting for the index to come out of the downward pressure line, the bottom of the shock center moves down to 3023 points, and the medium-term pressure is still high before 3731 points. In terms of operation, the short orders can be gradually closed during the decline of the stock index, the long light position can be bottomed out, and the medium and long-term IF and IH can choose the opportunity to make up the position. In terms of cash arbitrage, the space for reverse hedging at the far end of the IC is slightly more than 7%, and the cost is still suitable for participation. In terms of cross-symbols, the IH/IC price comparison and spread continued to rise significantly, and the medium- and long-term trend was upward, and it continued to do long IH/IC comparison at a low price during the year.
national debt	Treasury futures continued to decline this week, with the 10-year main force down 0.57%; the 5-year main force down 0.49%, the 2-year main down 0.21%, and the yield of treasury bonds in the spot bond market generally higher. 【Important information】 This week's domestic real economy data in the first quarter of this week was released, the downward pressure on the domestic economy increased under the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of industry, investment and consumption fell in March, the unemployment rate in urban surveys rose, and the pressure on domestic stable growth increased. In terms of policy, the domestic policy to support the real economy has been significantly improved, the central bank has comprehensively reduced the RRR by 0.25 percentage points, while the additional targeted RRR reduction of 0.25% for some small and medium-sized banks, the RRR reduction policy has been cashed in, but the strength is slightly lower than market expectations; the central bank said that this year it has handed over the balance profit to the central government of 600 billion yuan, which is equivalent to the basic currency of 600 billion yuan, which is basically equivalent to the comprehensive reduction of 0.25 percentage points. In addition, the Chinese Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued 23 policy measures to strengthen financial services and increase support for the real economy. The central bank and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring that various financial policies be used well and take the initiative to serve the real economy in the front. The LPR quote on April 20 remained unchanged, which has remained unchanged for 3 consecutive months. Overseas, the fed policy tightening speed accelerated, the dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded rapidly, the DOLLAR index stood at 100, the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeded 2.9%, the inversion of the Sino-US Treasury bond spread deepened, and the relative attractiveness of the domestic bond market declined. And the recent acceleration of the depreciation of the renminbi will put pressure on the valuation level of the domestic financial market and restrict the loose space of monetary policy. 【Trading Strategy】 Domestic economic data in the first quarter was released, and the main data declined under the impact of the epidemic, but the performance of the treasury bond market did not rise due to economic weakness. Recently, the bond market has strong expectations for monetary policy, but the MLF operating interest rate on the 15th remains unchanged, the reduction of the RRR reduction policy is less than expected, and the market expectations are cashed in and disappointed, resulting in the high adjustment of treasury bond futures. The risk appetite of the domestic financial market has declined rapidly, the stock market has fallen sharply, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly, and the bond market has been supported by certain hedging. Short-term domestic wide credit expectations, pressure on government bond issuance, and inversion of the US-China spread continue to constrain treasury performance. However, we believe that in the environment of economic weakness and policy easing, domestic bond market yields still lack an upward basis for the time being, and treasuries are still at the end of the bull market. Operationally, it is recommended that trading funds buy at a low price, and allocation funds continue to patiently hold positions.
Stock options	From April 18 to 22, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19% to 4013.25. The Shanghai 50 index rose 1.51% at 2814.12. The short-term weakening of the RMB exchange rate affected the stock market. 【Important Information】 The CSRC held a forum for institutional investors, and the meeting pointed out that the fundamentals of the mainland's long-term economic improvement have not changed. The meeting proposed that pensions, banking and insurance institutions and various types of asset management institutions are the representatives of professional institutions among investors and the most important long-term source of funds in the capital market. We should give full play to the advantages of long-term funds to overcome short-term fluctuations in the market, make good use of the amount of equity investment, further expand the proportion of equity investment, and improve the level of long-term income. Yi Gang, president of the People's Bank of China, attended the second G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors this year and made a speech by video link, Yi Gang said that the People's Bank of China will flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools, give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools and structure, and increase support for the real economy. On Friday, northbound funds were net inflows against the market, accelerating their entry in the afternoon, with a net purchase of 6.765 billion yuan throughout the day. Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock Connect was 3.611 billion yuan, and the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 3.154 billion yuan. This week, northbound funds traded for 4 days, with a cumulative small net purchase of 444 million yuan. The yuan traded at a midpoint of 6.4596 against the dollar, down 498 basis points from the previous session. 【Trading Strategy】 The stock index stabilizes in the short term. Volatility returns to the middle, volatility is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the later stage, and in the medium term, the volatility strategy is mainly short, or sell far-month virtual put options. Recommended Strategy: 300 ETF Options: Sell a May Put Option 3.8. Stock Index Options: Sell May 3800 put options. SSE 50 ETF Options: Sell a May 2.6 Put Option.
Commodity options	【Market review】 Most of the trends of domestic commodity options this week rushed higher and fell back, iron ore and crude oil led the decline, and soybean meal continued to rise sharply. In the options market, the volume of commodity options has rebounded. At present, the trade of put contracts such as iron ore, palm oil and cotton is the most active. Corn, PVC, sugar, rubber, plastic, etc. are more actively traded on call options. In terms of position PCR, palm oil, soybean meal, rape meal, iron ore, etc. are at a high level. Options such as rubber, sugar, methanol, and PVC are at a relatively low level. In terms of volatility, the current hidden wave of various varieties of options has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level. 【Important information】 In terms of macro market, the us Treasury yield restarted the upward trend and put pressure on the equity market. The slight decline in initial jobless claims in the United States last week confirmed the unusually tight labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a 50 basis point rate hike at the May meeting. Domestically, GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the national economy started generally smoothly. However, since March, the epidemic has broken out in many parts of the country, the PMI has fallen below 50, and the price index has risen sharply. CPI and PPI exceeded expectations. Social financing and RMB loans also exceeded expectations. At present, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, and stable growth is still an important part of this year's economy. The central bank cut the RRR by 0.25 percentage points, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, slightly lower than market expectations. In addition, the central bank said that as of mid-April, it had paid 600 billion yuan, mainly for tax rebates and transfer payments to local governments, which is equivalent to investing 600 billion yuan in the base currency. 【Trading strategy】 This week's domestic economic data in the first quarter of the release, the domestic economic downward pressure under the impact of the epidemic increased, the growth rate of industry, investment and consumption in March fell, the unemployment rate in urban surveys rose, and the pressure on domestic stable growth increased. The central bank cut the RRR by 0.25 percentage points, which was lower than market expectations. U.S. inflation continues to soar, and Fed officials continue to stress the need to tighten monetary policy quickly. The probability of starting to shrink the balance sheet and speeding up interest rate hikes in May is larger, and the yields of the US dollar and US Treasuries have rebounded rapidly. The trend of commodity options has weakened, and some varieties with high volatility levels can continue to participate in short volatility strategies, while for sugar, corn, rubber and other options hidden waves have fallen back to relatively low levels, and further decline in the future may be limited. Directional strategies recommend adopting a spread strategy to respond to the range market. For futures positions, it is recommended to use the option insurance strategy to do a good job in risk management, and continue to recommend reducing costs and enhancing returns through the method of backup.
ocean shipping	International Container Shipping Market: Spot market freight rates continued to fall this week, but the decline narrowed. At present, the new supply of goods in Shanghai Port is relatively limited, mainly from sea-rail and water-water combined transport, a small amount of local and inter-provincial and municipal goods, and pre-value stranded containers. The main reason for restricting the demand for transport capacity is the rupture of the onshore supply chain and the stagnation of production, so governments at all levels take the initiative to take corresponding rescue measures. From the perspective of the supply chain, the Ministry of Communications issued the "Notice on Effectively Strengthening the Work Related to the Security of Waterway Transport" on April 13, and Vice Premier Liu He made ten key instructions at the national video conference to ensure the smooth flow of goods and promote the stability of the industrial production chain, which focused on the deployment of nucleic acid testing for 48 hours of mutual recognition nationwide, refusal to release on the grounds of waiting for nucleic acid results, and chasing after taking and leaving. From the perspective of resuming production and economy, the People's Bank of China announced on April 15 that it would reduce the RRR by 0.25 percentage points from the 25th of the month, and another 0.25 percentage points (a total of 0.5 percentage points) for small and micro enterprises, and the Shanghai Municipal Government released the first batch of 666 white lists of 666 companies to resume work and production on April 16, involving many key industries in many countries such as automobiles, chips, semiconductors, and high-tech. Affected by the above positives, the demand for maritime exports has rebounded slightly, the market decline has narrowed, and it is not ruled out that it will bottom out before the end of April, and even some industry insiders are optimistic that May will usher in a stronger wave of shipments. As a result, a number of shipping companies recently announced an increase in the Comprehensive Rate Surcharge (GRI) for trans-Pacific routes from Asia to the United States from May 1, including Evergreen Shipping, Hanshin Shipping, Ocean Netlink, Yangming Shipping and Yixing Shipping, all five liner companies raised by $1000/FEU. However, the current epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta is still not optimistic, shanghai resumed work and production and the Yangtze River Delta supply chain fully recovered it will take time, liner companies may not be able to really land in May, or it is possible to wait until late May to implement. International Dry Bulk Shipping Market: The market continued to rally this week, with capesize the market rebounding the most, but also more volatile. This week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed a target of a year-on-year reduction in crude steel production in 2022, which again differed from the market expectations, with 247 steel mills in China falling slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and daily consumption fell slightly to 79.8% and 2.8635 million tons/ton. But on the other hand, the 45 MTR inventory further fell back to 147 million tons, down for 4 consecutive weeks, superimposed on the possibility of interest rate cuts in the future by the Central Bank of China, so the future demand is expected to increase, and the demand for replenishment has rebounded. Therefore, both the spot market BDI and the forward market FFA have a certain fluctuation. Overall, the industry is still optimistic that the resumption of work and production after the end of the epidemic will usher in a greater recovery, so the overall market shock is upward. This month is Indonesia's Ramadan month, coupled with the intensification of the epidemic in China, resulting in Indonesia's coal shipments recorded 7.73 million tons in the latest week, down 5.1% week-on-week. However, strong demand from Japan and South Korea drove the overall coal transportation market, with round-trip China-Japan/Pacific voyages and rental levels on TCT routes from Southern China via Indonesia to South Korea rising 3.2% and 4% week-on-week. South American grain pallets were relatively average, with Brazilian soybean shipments down 12.3% week-on-week in the most recent week. Mainly due to the iron ore pallet and Capeszie market pull, BPI can achieve a weekly increase of 0.2%. Coastal dry bulk transport market: This week the market rushed higher and fell back. In the first half of the week, the News that the Daqin Line failed and would be repaired in advance and the maintenance time extended was very loud, and the panic of downstream users intensified, accelerating the pace of pulling. However, as the traffic volume of the Daqin Line returned to normal, the market once again reviewed the fundamental demand. At present, the epidemic situation in China's Yangtze River Delta and South China has intensified, factories have stopped production, employees work from home, for electricity consumption has decreased, the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces has fallen below 1.6 million tons, and coal prices have not stabilized, the market is relatively deserted, and freight rates have fallen again.
noble metal	At the beginning of the week, geopolitical tensions continued, precious metals continued to be strong, spot gold was once close to the $2000 / ounce mark; as Fed officials Bullard and Powell both made hawkish speeches, reinforcing the Fed's expectations of accelerated tightening of monetary policy, rising US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar put pressure on precious metals, precious metals fell back to a high level, spot gold once fell to $1936 / ounce, while geopolitics and high inflation provided support for precious metals Silver was weaker than gold this week due to the expected impact of a weaker economy. Specifically, this week's spot gold as a whole ran in the 1936-1998.4 US dollar / ounce range, with a weekly decline of about 1.5%; spot silver was weaker than gold, and the overall operation was weak in the range of 24.25-26.22 US dollars / ounce, with a weekly decline of about 5%. Although the Fed's monetary policy tightening expectations continue to increase, a negative impact on precious metals, while geopolitical tensions and high inflation data are still bullish on precious metals, precious metals will remain high and strong after digesting the latest bearish short-term. In terms of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, the trend of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver this week is divergent, Shanghai gold rose 0.49% to 406.8 yuan / gram this week; Shanghai silver fell 2.21% to 5098 yuan / kg this week. (1) Powell said the Fed will accelerate interest rate hikes and then adopt austerity policies where appropriate. If the timing is right, the forward strategy of raising interest rates has some benefits, and the 50 basis point hike will be discussed at the May meeting, and the Fed is committed to using tools to pull inflation back to the 2% target. (2) For monetary policy, the Fed may raise interest rates by 50BP is highly certain, and a 50BP rate hike in June is likely, and the focus will return to the expectation of the rate hike in June and July; the possibility of a 7-8 interest rate hike in 2022 is more likely; the balance sheet reduction began in May, and the initial phase of monthly reduction of $12 billion in Treasury bonds and $7 billion MBS, the monthly increase of this amount quickly reached the upper limit of the balance sheet reduction given by the Fed. (3) In the week ending April 6 to April 12, the speculative net longs of gold increased by 8746 lots to 254287 contracts, indicating that investors' willingness to be bullish on gold has warmed up; the speculative net increase in silver held by speculators has increased by 952 lots to 45986 contracts, indicating that investors' willingness to be bullish on silver has warmed up. 【Trading Strategy】 The progress of the geopolitical situation and the new signals of the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will continue to dominate the precious metals market. The situation is good and the hawks turn to a neutral negative precious metal, and vice versa. Geopolitics is difficult to achieve substantial relief in the short term, the Fed's policy tightening is also prone to bearish and bearish effects, liquidity is still flooded, high inflation has not yet undergone a substantial change, and precious metals have maintained a volatile and strong market after digesting the latest progress of the Fed in the short term. At present, it is still not recommended to short precious metals in the trend, and it is still the core of the operation to do long at a low price. The Fed's accelerated tightening of monetary policy expectations put precious metals under pressure, gold short-term support is still in the range of 1900-1918 US dollars / ounce, the core support level is near 1870 US dollars / ounce; if the geopolitical situation and inflation are not substantially good, gold still has room to rise, above continue to pay attention to the 2000 US dollars / ounce mark and 2070 US dollars / ounce before the high position; Shanghai gold continues to pay attention to the 420 yuan / gram mark, the future does not rule out the possibility of rising to 454 yuan / gram The lower support level is in the range of 387-390 yuan / g. Spot silver closely follows the trend of gold, focusing below on the annual line of $24.46 /oz (5080 yuan/kg), the core support level is at the $24/oz mark (5000 yuan/kg); above continue to focus on the previous high of $27/oz (5420 yuan/kg). Pay close attention to the geopolitical situation, do not recommend trend shorting, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. In the second quarter of 2022, after the political situation is clear or significantly relaxed, if the Fed once again releases more hawkish signals or actions, precious metals still have the short-term possibility of weakening again. Precious metals due to policy adjustment expectations and panic fall is the time to buy, it is recommended to continue to bargain-oriented long. In terms of gold options, it is recommended to continue to sell inflated put options to obtain premiums and sell the AU2206P392 contract.
copper	【Market review】 This week's Shanghai copper wide oscillation, as of Friday's close, the main contract CU2205 closed at 75010 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.05%. In terms of spot, the average price of Shanghai nonferrous 1# electrolytic copper on April 22 was 75085-75360 yuan / ton, down 275 yuan / ton from April 15. The average warehouse receipt premium of Yangshan copper is 24 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton from April 15. 【Important information】 1, macro: from January to March, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) 104872 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, private fixed asset investment was 5,962.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. 2. Supply side: The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday shows that the global copper market is short of 83,000 tons in January-February 2022, compared with a shortage of 479,000 tons in 2021. Copper production in January-February 2022 was 3.44 million tonnes, up 2.8% year-on-year, and refined copper production in January-February was 4 million tonnes, up 0.7% year-on-year. Copper consumption in January-February 2022 was 4.081 million tonnes, up 4.7% year-on-year. China's copper consumption in January-February 2022 was 2.14 million tonnes, up 3.3% year-on-year. High metal prices and accelerating aggregate inflation are fueling resource nationalism and social unrest in Peru. As of Wednesday, along with Minmetals Resources MMG's Las Bambas Mine with Southern Copper Corp. Along with Cuajone, succumbed to community protests, about one-fifth of the country's copper production would be discontinued. Meanwhile, unions in the mineral-rich Cusco region are on strike against price increases, while residents near the Glencore copper mine are preparing to resume protests. According to online query data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrate in March were 2,184,256.66 tons, an increase of 5.37% month-on-month and 1.09% year-on-year. China's refined copper imports in March were 323,436.89 tons, up 13.27% month-on-month and 8.85% year-on-year. China's imports of copper scrap (copper scrap scrap) in March were 149,934.92 tons, an increase of 36.55% month-on-month and a decrease of 12.77% year-on-year. 3. Demand side: According to SMM research data, in the first batch of 666 companies that resumed work released in Shanghai on April 17, the automotive industry chain companies accounted for one-third, reaching 231, including Huayu Automobile, Weininger, Autoliv, Amber Fu, ZF, Yanfeng and many other well-known auto parts companies. It is worth noting that although the automotive industry chain has begun to resume work and production, the number of employees who have entered closed-loop production is limited. A Shanghai Volkswagen insider told reporters that because there were positive cases upstairs and downstairs during the lockdown period, he failed to catch up with the first round of resumption of work, and most employees with similar conditions could not return to work normally, which will also affect the scale of resumption of work and production. The epidemic control in Yixing area is still relatively tight, and the goods carried by trucks from Shanghai and other key areas to yixing east entrance and exit of the highway must be stored for more than 7 days before they can be used. According to SMM research, on April 21, Yixing area electrolytic copper spot report in the premium of 350-400 yuan / ton, compared with the surrounding Changzhou and other areas are still at a high level, in addition to the surrounding refinery quotations aimed at Shanghai to the price, there is a price sentiment, logistics and transportation is still the local electrolytic copper circulation of the "roadblock", some Yixing area copper rod factories are still in suspension of production. 4. Inventory side: As of Friday, April 22, SMM copper stocks in mainstream areas across the country decreased by 12,300 tons to 127,300 tons on Monday, down 12,000 tons from Friday, and weekly inventories fell for two consecutive weeks. 【Trading Strategy】 Following the central bank's RRR cut less than expected, the expectation of LPR reduction is also disappointed, the monetary easing is low, coupled with the hidden debt accountability in many places, to a certain extent offset the bullish sentiment brought by the stable growth policy, and the rise of industrial products is weak. However, there is also uncertainty about the current progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, a new round of sanctions and counter-sanctions are brewing, and the risk premium for copper and other related varieties still exists. The focus of the short-term market is the specific progress of the domestic resumption of work and production, according to our understanding, although some areas have slowed down the sealing and control measures, the downstream copper started to rebound last week, but the terminal cable, real estate, construction, etc. are still sluggish, and Shanghai and its surrounding areas are also facing port logistics congestion and difficulties in returning to work, and the state of weak demand in the future is likely to continue for a period of time. Overall, after the release of China's macro bullish factors, the game of strong expectations and weak reality may lead to copper prices returning to a wide range of oscillations, unilateral attention to control positions, options recommend buying volatility strategies.
zinc	【Market review】 This week's Shanghai zinc wide range shock, as of Friday's close, ZN2205 closed at 28395 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.26%. In terms of spot, as of this Friday, the average price of #0 zinc ingot of Shanghai Nonferrous Network was 28520 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton from last Friday. 【Important information】 1, policy aspects: The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau have issued 23 measures to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development financial services, which mentions that it is necessary to increase financial support for the smooth circulation of logistics and shipping. Financial institutions should take the initiative to follow up and effectively meet the financing needs of transportation enterprises. Open up "green channels" for transport and logistics enterprises that undertake heavy tasks of epidemic prevention and control and emergency transportation, optimize the credit approval process, and provide flexible and convenient financial services. 2. Supply side: On April 19, Trevali announced that its Perkoa zinc mine in Burkina Faso, West Africa, was flooded in some areas due to flooding caused by heavy rainfall last Saturday. It is reported that the mine's annual output last year was about 73,000 tons. According to data from the online inquiry platform of the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of zinc ore and its concentrate in March were 255,865.04 tons, down 3.54% month-on-month and 29.25% year-on-year. China's refined zinc imports in March were 21,342.57 tons, a sharp increase of 287.53% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 53.63%. 3. Demand side: In March 2022, the total export volume of mainland galvanized sheet (belt) totaled 1.1527 million tons, an increase of 38.01% month-on-month and an annual year-on-year decrease of 6.89%; the total export volume of mainland galvanized plate (belt) from January to March 2022 totaled 3.047 million tons, an annual year-on-year decrease of 8.50%. In March 2022, the total import volume of mainland galvanized sheet (belt) totaled 146,300 tons, an increase of 16.91% month-on-month, an annual decrease of 26.07%; from January to March 2022, the total import volume of mainland galvanized plate (belt) totaled 462,500 tons, an annual decrease of 15.91%. According to the data, in March this year, China's rubber tire exports totaled 640,000 tons, an increase of 190,000 tons month-on-month, down 3.9% year-on-year; the export amount was 10.469 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. 4, the inventory side: according to SMM, as of this Monday (April 18), SMM seven zinc ingot inventory total of 284,000 tons, down 100 tons from last Friday (April 15), an increase of 3,600 tons from last Monday (April 11). 【Operation Suggestion】 The recent failure of China's interest rate cut expectations, the reporting of hidden debt accountability in many places offset some of the positive sentiment of stable growth, and the rise of industrial products has slowed down. However, at present, the supply side support of the zinc market is still strong, on the one hand, the Perkoa zinc mine with an annual output of about 73,000 metal tons is suspended due to flooding, which further promotes the shortage of worries; on the other hand, the geopolitical situation is still unresolved, the United States and Europe are also brewing a new round of sanctions against Russia, energy prices remain high, and the possibility of further production reductions by European smelters cannot be ignored. From the inventory point of view, since April, the LME zinc inventory has continued to go to the warehouse, hitting a new low in 22 months, among which the large-scale withdrawal of inventory due to Tok and the large-scale increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts have caused market congestion concerns to a certain extent. In short, in the short term, the geopolitical risk premium still exists and the domestic resumption of production is expected to make the zinc market still maintain a strong shock judgment in the future, the current stage is still not recommended to short, in view of the situation is easy to repeat, more than a single attention to control the position, option buy volatility strategy.
lead	【Market review】 This week, the US Treasury yield rose again, the US dollar remained strong, the non-ferrous rise and fall were mixed, the lead price was higher, the overall trend was still in a range shock trend, Shanghai lead Pb2205 closed at 15725 yuan / ton, up 1.85%. 【Important information】 According to external news, Gaoliya Lead and South32 reached a 2022 annual lead concentrate long single agreement, the agreement is mainly for the Canington Mine in Australia, and the long single benchmark processing fee was finalized at 130 US dollars / dry ton, which was only REDUCed by 6 US dollars / dry ton compared with 136 US dollars / dry ton in 2021; the silver refining fee was 1.25 US dollars / ounce, which was lowered by 0.25 US dollars / ounce from 1.5 US dollars / ounce in 2021. According to Mysteel statistics, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main market of the country on April 21 was 93,700 tons, down 0.99 million tons from the 18th and 0.96 million tons from the 14th. China's refined lead imports in March were 54.42 tons, an increase of 177.68% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 83.45%. 【Operation Suggestion】 The Fed's tightening of monetary policy is expected to exceed expectations, and the IMF has lowered its global and Chinese economic growth expectations, which is bearish and colorless, but under the current high inflation, energy costs remain high, overseas low inventories and domestic efforts to stabilize the economy, non-ferrous metals are still at a high level. In the lead market, as enterprises in the epidemic area started to resume work and production, domestic lead ingot inventories fell sharply this week, boosting lead prices. But while the epidemic improves demand, supply will also grow. At present, the price of sulfuric acid is high, and if the epidemic is alleviated and shipments are smooth, the production enthusiasm of primary lead smelters will be significantly improved. The supply of recycled lead feedstock will improve, and subsequent output will also increase. April is still the off-season for battery replacement, and domestic lead battery consumption is weak. The epidemic has led to greater pressure on automobile production and sales. Technically, Shanghai lead is still in a range shock, paying attention to the performance of the upper pressure level of 15800-16000, and the lower support of 14900. In the long run, recycled lead production capacity continues to expand, demand remains stable, and the space above lead prices is relatively limited.
tin	【Market review】 This week, the dollar index continued to be strong, the non-ferrous price rose and fell, the tin price was high, and the Main 2205 contract of Shanghai tin closed at 336300 yuan / ton, down 0.57%. 【Important information】 In the first quarter, the new installed capacity of photovoltaics was 13.2GW, an increase of 148% year-on-year. Shanghai said on April 22 that 70% of 666 key enterprises have resumed work and production in the past week. SAIC, Tesla and other vehicle companies have continuously achieved vehicle off-line, and related parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work, and automobile companies have improved their production rate and capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate of integrated circuit and chemical backbone enterprises remained at a high level. WBMS: The global tin market is oversupplied by 2600 tons in January-February. In March, the mainland imported tin ore and concentrate 28,986 tons, an increase of 37.28% year-on-year. Net imports of refined tin were 722 tonnes in March and 407 tonnes in February. 【Trading strategy】 The IMF lowered its global and Chinese economic growth forecasts, and the Fed chairman released a hawkish signal, saying that the May meeting discussed a 50 basis point interest rate hike, suggesting that interest rates may be raised several times this way during the year, US Treasury yields are higher again, and the US dollar remains strong. However, non-ferrous metals are still at a high level under the continuous high inflation, high energy costs, low overseas inventories, and domestic efforts to stabilize the economy. In the tin market, refined tin has continued to be in a profitable state of imports since March, and the import volume has increased significantly month-on-month, effectively supplementing domestic supply. Domestic tin smelter operating rate remains stable, and refined tin production in April is expected to change little month-on-month, maintaining a high level. On the demand side, the performance of the industry is quite different, the photovoltaic industry maintains a high growth rate, the new installed capacity in the first quarter increased by 1.48 times year-on-year, but due to the epidemic, rising raw material prices and other factors, the demand for automobiles, PCs, smart phones and so on is weak. In addition, at present, the resumption of work and production and logistics and transportation are gradually recovering, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production in the past week, and the marginal improvement of follow-up demand is still weak. In terms of inventory, as enterprises in the epidemic area start to resume work and production, domestic inventories have turned from rising to falling, and the global total inventory is at a low level of shock trend, which supports tin prices. In summary, the short-term demand margin improved, but the overall is still weak, tin prices are expected to be strong, and it is expected that the Shanghai tin operating range is 325,000-360,000. Pay attention to the resumption of work and production of enterprises and the logistics situation.
aluminium	【Market review】 This week, the Shanghai aluminum disk as a whole showed a narrow range of shocks, and the center of gravity of the shock rose slightly. The main 2206 contract closed at 21920 yuan / ton on Friday, up 0.23% weekly. 【Important information】 On the supply side, the current domestic resumption of production capacity is gradually increasing, and the market supply is increasing. However, the impact of the epidemic is reflected in the circulation link, and upstream and downstream sales and procurement have been affected to a certain extent. The European energy crisis is still fermenting, coupled with strong uncertainty about geopolitical issues, and foreign supply continues to be tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises affected by the epidemic continued to decline month-on-month, and the production capacity of aluminum processing enterprises in many parts of the country was shut down or partially shut down. However, due to the demand for advance stockpiling on holidays and the move of upstream prices, downstream procurement is more active, and spot purchases and sales are booming. In terms of exports, due to the low ratio of Shanghai aluminum, it is relatively favorable. In terms of inventory, on April 21, 2022, SMM counted the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 1.021 million tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last Thursday's inventory. Among them, in addition to the transportation restriction inventory in Wuxi area increased slightly by 0.2 million tons, the shipment volume in other regions increased, and the inventory was in a state of reduction. 【Trading Strategy】 Overall, at present, the domestic supply side has resumed production and the new production capacity has continued to increase, and the output of primary aluminum has further increased. Internationally, the price of Lun aluminum is stronger than that of China due to the energy crisis. On the demand side, the encouragement to resume work under the influence of the epidemic has gradually increased, and the willingness to purchase has gradually recovered. In terms of inventory, social inventory was dematerialized again on Thursday to support aluminum prices. At present, the Shanghai aluminum disk surface is oscillating at a high level, and it is recommended to increase the amount of correction in an appropriate amount. Geopolitical issues and the latest developments in the pandemic need to be paid attention to. The 06 contract is above the pressure level of 24000 and the support level below is 20000. In terms of options, a double sell strategy can be considered to earn royalty gains.
nickel	【Market review】 This week's nickel main contract rose as high as 246000, closing at 238580, up 2.85%. Due to poor logistics in China, the supply of electrolytic nickel is tight, and the water is wide. LME nickel price shock trend, the spot market to inventory has slowed down, spot water continued to negative. The inner and outer disks have fluctuated and repaired since the deep inversion. This week, the pressure of RMB depreciation has rebounded, inhibiting the trend of non-ferrous metals. 【Important information】 On April 22, the price of MYSteel laterite nickel ore FOB and CIF was temporarily stable, and the current Ni: 0.9% high-alumina ore CIF47-48 US dollars / wet ton, Ni: 1.4% ore CIF 84-86 US dollars / wet ton, Ni: 1.8% ore CIF 132 US dollars / wet ton. At present, the demand of domestic nickel iron plants affected by the epidemic has slowed down, and the spot procurement is mainly based on price pressure; and this week's shipping stops falling, the nickel mine FOB price is running firmly, and traders continue to let the price space be small due to the rising cost of holding goods, and the new round of transaction prices during the week is more stable. On the supply side, the recent loss of pure nickel imports and the reduction of domestic electrolytic nickel plants have led to an intensification of the tight supply of pure nickel, but the import has not yet reached a profitable state, and the problem of substantial tight supply has not been solved. The nickel salt plant suffered heavy losses and production stoppages. At present, some salt mills continue to choose to sell raw materials. Despite the current upstream raw material manufacturers' profits, their corresponding nickel salt prices are still in a loss. 【Trading Strategy】 The geopolitical situation is repeated, the LME is low inventory, and the wide oscillation pattern of nickel price high continues. At present, spot purchase and sales are light, the country is still affected by logistics, the disk surface is strong, and the spot is adjusted to rise and fall. Nickel sulfate production losses, manufacturers also have production cut arrangements. Logistics in major domestic trading areas have not returned to normal, and temporary demand has also been affected. Recently, the inversion of the internal and external disks has narrowed, and the domestic main contracts are still strong in the short term, rising to above 240,000 twice this week, and the short-term caution is dominated by more ideas. The long order takes 230,000 yuan as the short-term long-short watershed.
stainless steel	【Market review】Stainless steel this week first suppressed and then raised. The main contract rose as high as 20,000 and finally closed at 20,040, up 0.66%. 【Important information】As the epidemic situation in Wuxi improves, the resumption of work and production is also gradually advancing. From the beginning of the week to basically achieve the full unsealing, and then gradually restore the city's public transportation, and then gradually open the highway, for the stainless steel market merchants to open the process of sales, processing and shipment gradual recovery. In addition, due to the impact of logistics, the arrival of steel mills in the Wuxi market has been delayed, and the current volume of resources in transit is large. Freight costs are 5-10 times higher than normal, which has an impact on the sales progress of spot resources. As far as the current logistics situation is concerned, the transportation situation in Wuxi is relatively normal, and it will take some time for cross-city transportation to return to normal. In terms of inventory, this week continued to increase, setting a four-week increase trend, mainly due to the large number of steel mill resources arrived during the week, Mysteel's arrival volume this week was the highest record since monitoring, mainly from the port of Jiangsu, while downstream demand was still affected by the epidemic in many places, the overall demand performance was general; coupled with the delivery of resources into the spot market. According to Mysteel research, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market of the country on April 21 was 867,900 tons, up 2.78% week-on-week and 1.13% year-on-year. Among them, the total inventory of 300 series was 555,100 tons, up 2.41% week-on-week and 34.55% year-on-year. Stainless steel futures warehouse order 71576, this week's warehouse order fell 6588. 【Trading strategy】Shipping costs have rebounded again Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel pig iron prices are still relatively strong, ferrochrome is also expected to rise due to tightening supply, and the cost of stainless steel is firm. The logistics situation in the Wuxi market has gradually improved, and it is still in the process of recovery. Stainless steel has increased inventory for four consecutive weeks, and the follow-up continues the shock pattern under the influence of the rhythm of destocking and nickel price fluctuations. Futures will continue to fluctuate repeatedly between 19,000 and 22,000 yuan in the near future.
screw thread	【Market review】 Futures market: The main force of rebar futures rushed higher and fell back this week, falling slightly to less than 5,000 yuan. Spot market: the spot market transaction situation has not changed much, the spot price in Beijing and Shanghai has risen to near 5100, the futures and current price spreads have remained low, and the logistics in some areas have recovered, driving the improvement of the warehouse, but the overall consumption situation still needs to be restored. 【Important Information】 From April 22, Tangshan Lunan District, Lubei District, High-tech Zone, Fengrun District, Fengnan District, Kaiping District, Luannan County, Yutian County, Qianxi County, Zunhua City, Lutai Economic Development Zone, Hangu Management District were lifted from sealing and control management; Wu'an City implemented sealing and control management; Jiangxi Nanchang began three-day static management. The 137 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel from April 14 to April 20 produced 3.07 million tonnes of threads, down 0.29 million tonnes from the previous week. From a sub-regional point of view, the reduction mainly occurred in East China, while the output of North China, South China and Central China all increased, of which North China had the largest increase, reaching 38,300 tons. This week, the total social inventory of construction steel in the mainstream four cities of Shenyang, Dalian, Harbin and Changchun in the three eastern provinces this week was 1.9413 million tons, of which 1.5408 million tons of rebar and 400,500 tons of wire reel, a sharp increase of 862,000 tons year-on-year, compared with the total inventory of 1.9756 million tons last week, the social library this week has been reduced by 35,100 tons, which is the first time since the beginning of 2022. 【Trading strategy】 Rebar production this week did not change much, year-on-year is still low, tangshan part of the risk control lifted, as of April 21, the local capacity utilization rate fell slightly month-on-month. The National Development and Reform Commission said that it is necessary to ensure that the annual crude steel production declines, due to the large year-on-year decline in the output of the first quarter, so the average daily output of crude steel in the second and third quarters may still rebound, but due to the impact of profits, policies, etc., the elasticity of the supply of rebar in the later period is not high. Demand increased month-on-month, down more than 20% year-on-year, demand continued to be sluggish since March, and affected by the epidemic, Wuhan, Nanchang recently carried out risk control and static management, demand is difficult to strengthen significantly in the short term. The IMF cut China's economic growth rate in 2022, while the World Steel Association expects China's steel demand to grow at zero. Domestic policies continue to relax, but the strength is lower than market expectations, the march real estate data accelerated decline, so that the market's confidence in the real estate improvement declined, after the expected transaction lasted for nearly 5 months, spot demand has not improved, began to wear down market patience. On the whole, the probability of real estate stabilization after the third quarter, before that, the infrastructure hedging effect should be cautiously viewed, so the impact of demand on the disk surface after May Day is expected to further increase, then we must pay attention to the continued downside risk caused by the recovery of demand, but the negative feedback pressure before the holiday is low, and the disk surface is under pressure above 5100, and the support near 4800 is concerned.
Hot rolls	Futures market: this week's hot coil is weak shock operation, the hot coil 10 contract closed at 5074 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.39%. Spot market: This week, the spot price of many geothermal coils fell slightly, and the price of 4.75mm hot coils in Shanghai fell by 60 to 5120 yuan / ton. 【Important Information】From January 22, Tangshan Qianxi, Luannan, Gaoxin, Yutian, Lubei, Lunan, Fengnan, Fengrun and other places lifted the global sealing and control management. 2. According to the data of the Association, the pickup truck market sold 55,000 units in March, down 2% year-on-year and 60% month-on-month. Sales of 131,000 units from January to March decreased by 3% y/y. 2. The output of large varieties of steel on Friday was 9.9444 million tons, an increase of 57,800 tons week-on-week. On Friday, the apparent consumption of large varieties of steel was 10.2602 million tons, an increase of 304,100 tons week-on-week. The total steel inventory this week was 23.0289 million tons, a decrease of 315,800 tons week-on-week. Among them, the inventory of steel mills was 6.8436 million tons, a decrease of 0.78 million tons week-on-week; the social inventory was 16.1853 million tons, a decrease of 308,000 tons week-on-week. 3. On April 21, my steel released inventory data showed that the weekly output of hot coils was 3.2208 million tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons month-on-month, the inventory of steel mills was 1.0511 million tons, an increase of 58,400 tons, the social inventory was 2.4312 million tons, down 12,300 tons, the total inventory was 3.4823 million tons, an increase of 46,100 tons, and the apparent demand for hot coils was 3.1747 million tons, an increase of 39,500 tons. 4. The hot coil production inventory data released by Mysteel this week shows that the supply and demand of hot coils remain weak, and the production of hot coils increases month-on-month. The demand for hot coils has been affected by the epidemic and has continued to be low, and it is difficult to improve in the short term, and the loose supply and demand have led to an increase in hot coil inventories. 【Trading strategy】 This week's hot coil shock downward, the early week to maintain the shock trend, the late week to reduce crude steel production led to a decline in raw material prices, hot coil cost support weakened, while superimposed steel downstream demand is weak, resulting in hot coil for two consecutive days, short-term is expected to maintain a weak shock trend, pay attention to the support situation near the following 4900 yuan / ton.
Manganese silicon	【Market review】 Futures market: This week, the manganese silicon disk surface rushed up and fell, and the main contract rose by 1.2% to close at 8912. Spot market: After a long period of consolidation, the price of manganese silicon spot market has been slightly increased in some major producing areas this week. As of April 22, the price of manganese silicon in the main production area of Inner Mongolia was reported at 8450 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton week-on-week, the price of the main production area in Guizhou was reported at 8450 yuan / ton, and the main production area in Guangxi was reported at 8500 yuan / ton, flat week-on-week. 【Important information】 Inner Mongolia has publicized the list of restricted and eliminated enterprises that implement differential electricity prices in 2022, which involve 29 ferrosilicon production enterprises and 2 manganese silicon production enterprises, but there are not many manufacturers still in production, and many manufacturers have their own power plants, and it is expected that the short-term impact of electricity price increases on output is limited. In March 2022, the import volume of manganese ore was 2.2073 million tons, an increase of 13.73% month-on-month. In 2022, we will continue to carry out the reduction of national crude steel production, guide steel companies to abandon the extensive development method of winning by quantity, and promote the high-quality development of the steel industry. In March, China's crude steel production averaged 2.8484 million tons per day, with a monthly output of 88.3 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year. From January to March, the national crude steel output was 243.38 million tons, down 10.5% year-on-year. Gdp growth in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year. On April 25, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after this reduction was 8.1%, and the reduction released a total of 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. According to worldsteel's latest forecast, global steel demand will continue to increase by 0.4% to 1,840.2 million tonnes in 2022, following a 2.7% increase in 2021. Growth continued to increase by 2.2% to 1,881.4 million tonnes in 2023. The increase in the scale of social financing in March was 4,650 billion yuan, and the expected value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 1,190 billion yuan in February. New RMB loans were 3,130 billion yuan in March, with an expected value of 2.8 trillion yuan, compared with 1,230 billion yuan in February. M2 growth was 9.7% in March, 9.4% expected and 9.2% in February. The CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, 1.3% expected, compared to 0.9% in February. The PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, compared to 8.1% expected and 8.8% previously. India's manganese silicon prices have recently stagnated, with 6014 manganese silicon at $1400-1430. Domestic PMI in March was 49.5%, down 0.7% month-on-month. On Friday, the production of major steel grades increased by 57,800 tons month-on-month, and the demand for manganese silicon increased by 0.5% month-on-month to 148,200 tons. The national manganese silicon production capacity in March was 1584791 tons, and the output was 938641 tons, an increase of 16.12% or 130316 tons from February. This week, the national manganese silicon supply was 206920 tons, an increase of 1.44% week-on-week. Mysteel counted the sample operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country as 68.02%, up 1.76% week-on-week; the average daily output was 29560 tons, an increase of 420 tons week-on-week. Hesteel's manganese silicon production in April was 24,450 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons from March and a year-on-year decrease of 550 tons. The latest price of this round is 8800 yuan / ton, up 450 yuan / ton from the previous month. According to Mysteel survey, the average silicon manganese inventory in domestic steel mills in April was 20.21 days, down 5.52% month-on-month and 10.38% year-on-year. In May, manganese ore offered ups and downs. South32's may offer for China's high-grade Australian block was 8.22 US dollars / ton, unchanged month-on-month, some 8.5 US dollars / ton, up 0.28 US dollars / ton, South African semi-carbonate reported 5.55 US dollars / ton, down 0.15 US dollars / ton. Jupiter reported a $5.3/mt south African semi-carbonate to China in May, down $0.42/mt month-on-month. In the latest period, the national manganese ore port inventory increased by 536,000 tons to 5.753 million tons month-on-month, of which the import manganese ore inventory of Tianjin Port increased by 576,000 tons to 4.335 million tons, and the inventory of Qinzhou Port decreased by 40,000 tons to 1.268 million tons. This week, the manganese silicon disk surface rushed higher and fell back, slightly stronger, and the spot market price rose steadily. This week, the supply and demand of manganese silicon itself were booming, the output of the five major steel grades increased by 57,800 tons month-on-month, and the demand for manganese silicon increased by 0.5% month-on-month to 148,200 tons. On the supply side, in recent weeks, the national manganese silicon production has shown signs of short-term peaking. This week, the national manganese silicon supply was 206920 tons, an increase of 1.44% week-on-week. The sample operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country was 68.02%, up 1.76% week-on-week; the average daily output was 29560 tons, an increase of 420 tons week-on-week. Inner Mongolia has publicized the list of restricted and eliminated enterprises that implement differential electricity prices in 2022, which involve 29 ferrosilicon production enterprises and 2 manganese silicon production enterprises, but there are not many manufacturers still in production, and many manufacturers have their own power plants, and it is expected that the rise in electricity prices will not have a significant impact on production in the short term. However, the energy consumption constraints faced by the supply side of manganese silicon in the second quarter will be strengthened, and the space for further improvement of production will be limited. The upward drive of manganese ore prices at the cost end weakens, but the port spot price is still at a high level, and the procurement cost of subsequent manganese silicon manufacturers is still high. Recently, coke prices have remained firm, and the support for prices at the cost end of manganese silicon is still strong. Recently, the inventory level of manganese silicon manufacturers has also declined. In April, the average silicon manganese inventory in domestic steel mills was 20.21 days, down 5.52% month-on-month and 10.38% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the start of steel mills will enter the peak season mode, and there is still room for further improvement in the demand for manganese silicon, and a new round of steel moves will soon be opened. Recently, the national main port manganese ore inventory has once again appeared a large accumulation, in addition to the impact of northern traffic, the pace of foreign mine shipment has also accelerated. The foreign mine's offer for China in May showed signs of downward adjustment, and the spot price of manganese ore has peaked in stages. 【Trading strategy】 Manganese silicon cost end drive weakened, a new round of steel moves has not yet been opened, short-term price lack of directional guidance, will maintain the consolidation trend.
ferrosilicon	【Market review】 Futures market: This week, the ferrosilicon disk surface rushed higher and fell back, and the main contract fell by 2.2% to close at 10894. Spot market: Recently, the overseas ferrosilicon market price has turned into a consolidation, but the domestic ferrosilicon spot market has increased its confidence in prices, and the spot prices in the main production areas have been further raised since the beginning of the week. As of April 22, the main producing areas of Ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia reported 10,450 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton week-on-week, Ningxia Zhongwei reported 10,250 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton week-on-week, gansu Lanzhou reported 10,200 yuan / ton, up 350 yuan / ton week-on-week. 【Important information】 Inner Mongolia has publicized the list of restricted and eliminated enterprises that implement differential electricity prices in 2022, which involve 29 ferrosilicon production enterprises and 2 manganese silicon production enterprises, but there are not many manufacturers still in production, and many manufacturers have their own power plants, and it is expected that the short-term impact of electricity price increases on output is limited. Due to the repeated epidemics, many places in Tangshan have once again implemented temporary sealing and control, and the current transportation in the region is still restricted, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials and passive maintenance of some long-process steel mills. In 2022, we will continue to carry out the reduction of national crude steel production, guide steel companies to abandon the extensive development method of winning by quantity, and promote the high-quality development of the steel industry. In March, China's crude steel production averaged 2.8484 million tons per day. From January to March, the national crude steel output was 243.38 million tons, down 10.5% year-on-year. According to Mysteel survey, the average silicon iron inventory in domestic steel mills in April was 19.34 days, down 3.01% month-on-month and 13.7% year-on-year. Gdp growth in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year. On April 25, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after this reduction was 8.1%, and the reduction released a total of 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. According to worldsteel's latest forecast, global steel demand will continue to increase by 0.4% to 1,840.2 million tonnes in 2022, following a 2.7% increase in 2021. Growth continued to increase by 2.2% to 1,881.4 million tonnes in 2023. The increase in the scale of social financing in March was 4,650 billion yuan, and the expected value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 1,190 billion yuan in February. New RMB loans were 3,130 billion yuan in March, with an expected value of 2.8 trillion yuan, compared with 1,230 billion yuan in February. M2 growth was 9.7% in March, 9.4% expected and 9.2% in February. The CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, 1.3% expected, compared to 0.9% in February. The PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, compared to 8.1% expected and 8.8% previously. The quotation of magnesium ingot was further lowered, and the cash in Shaanxi at the beginning of the week including tax was quoted at 35,000-36,000 yuan / ton. In March, the national ferrosilicon production increased by 40,500 tons to 546,700 tons. This week, the national ferrosilicon production was 124,200 tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the previous month. Mysteel statistics in the latest period of the country's 136 independent ferrosilicon sample enterprises operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 52.43%, up 1.89 percentage points month-on-month, the average daily output of 17751 tons, an increase of 206 tons. Domestic PMI in March was 49.5%, down 0.7% month-on-month. On Friday, the production of major steel grades increased by 57,800 tons month-on-month, and the demand for ferrosilicon increased by 0.45% month-on-month to 25,377 tons. Hegang steel in April 72 ferrosilicon mining capacity of 2080 tons, an increase of 282 tons month-on-month. The steel price of Hegang in April was 10,050 yuan / ton, an increase of 850 yuan / ton compared with March. From the beginning of the year to March 11, the scale of new special bonds issued reached 967.6 billion yuan, accounting for 66.3% of the special bond quota issued in advance. This year's government work report pointed out that this year it is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments. This week, the silicon iron disk surface rose and fell, the spot market price confidence increased, and the prices of the main production areas were collectively raised. At present, the social inventory of ferrosilicon is relatively abundant, but the inventory in the factory and the inventory of traders are less. Although the current April steel recruitment has basically ended, there are still some Southern Steel Mills in recent days. With the opening of steel moves in May and the release of a new round of demand for ferrosilicon, the price of this round of steel moves is expected to continue to maintain high levels. There is a gap in the current supply of ferrosilicon overseas, and the export of ferrosilicon from the mainland will remain relatively strong in the second quarter. This week, the actual supply and demand of ferrosilicon was booming, the output of the five major steel grades increased by 57,800 tons month-on-month, and the demand for ferrosilicon increased by 0.45% month-on-month to 25,377 tons. This week, the national ferrosilicon production was 124,200 tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the previous month. The operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 136 independent ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 52.43%, up 1.89 percentage points from the previous month, and the average daily output was 17751 tons, an increase of 206 tons from the previous month. Inner Mongolia in 2022 to implement the differential electricity price of the restricted and eliminated list of enterprises to publicize, which involves 29 ferrosilicon production enterprises, manganese silicon production enterprises 2, although there are not many manufacturers still in production, and many manufacturers in the production of their own power plants, it is expected that the rise in electricity prices on the short-term impact of ferrosilicon production is limited, but the second quarter of ferrosilicon supply side will face stronger energy constraints. Recently, the supply of silica in some parts of Gansu has been disturbed, or affected the subsequent production of local ferrosilicon, and the space for further production of alloy manufacturers in the short term is limited. The market has recently been worried about the supply of lantan, and the support on the cost side of the discontinued ferrosilicon will be strengthened once there is a production. Magnesium ingot quotes were further lowered this week, with the upward drive for the price of ferrosilicon 75 not obvious in the short term. The price of ferrosilicon in India in the overseas market has recently stagnated, and the acceptance of high-priced ferrosilicon prices in the downstream has declined. 【Trading strategy】 There is a gap in the global supply of ferrosilicon, the supply and demand of the domestic ferrosilicon market is tightening, a new round of steel moves is about to open, the cost side is expected to rise, and the current price will maintain a strong trend in the near future.
iron ore	Futures market: This week's iron ore disk shock weakened, but still maintained a high level of operation, the main contract fell 3.8% to close at 881. Spot market: This week, the price of the iron ore spot market rose and fell, the overall change was not large, the premium of low-grade ore continued to strengthen, and the basis widened. As of April 22, the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was reported at 990 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan / ton week-on-week, card powder was reported at 1185 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton week-on-week, and Yang Di powder was reported at 959 yuan / ton, up 16 yuan / ton week-on-week. The Platts 62% Fe index fell by $2.75 to $150.05 this week. 【Fundamentals and important information】 Rio Tinto's iron ore production and sales in the first quarter were less than expected, and Pilbara produced 71.703 million tons, down 15% from the fourth quarter of last year and 6% year-on-year. Mainly due to the continuous depletion of its old mines, the replacement capacity has not been released in time. However, the annual shipment target of 320-325 million tons remains unchanged, and there is a strong expectation of shipment replenishment for the rest of the year. Shipments in the first quarter were 71.462 million tons, down 15% q-o-q and 8% yo-o-y. Vale's first-quarter ore production was 63.928 million tons, down 22.5% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. Maintain the annual production target of 320-325 million tons. BHP Billiton's iron ore production in the Pilbara business in the first quarter was 6667 tons, down 10% sequentially and basically flat year-on-year, and the decline in production in the first quarter was mainly affected by the epidemic and maintenance plans, but due to the smooth progress of the south slope project and the steady increase in production at the Samarco project, the pressure of the decline in production was offset to some extent. Sales in the first quarter were 67.11 million tons, down 8% sequentially and 2% year-on-year. Maintain the target production target of 278-288 million tons in fiscal 2022 unchanged, and 21,100 tons have been completed so far. Due to the repeated epidemic situation, many places in Tangshan have once again implemented temporary sealing and control, and the current regional transportation is still limited, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials, passive maintenance of some long-process steel mills, and the average daily output of molten iron this week has dropped slightly. The World Bank lowered its 2022 global GDP growth forecast to 3.2 percent from 4.1 percent. According to worldsteel's latest forecast, global steel demand will continue to increase by 0.4% to 1,840.2 million tonnes in 2022, following a 2.7% increase in 2021. Growth continued to increase by 2.2% to 1,881.4 million tonnes in 2023. In 2022, we will continue to carry out the reduction of national crude steel production, guide steel companies to abandon the extensive development method of winning by quantity, and promote the high-quality development of the steel industry. In March, China's crude steel output averaged 2.8484 million tons per day and pig iron at 2.3097 million tons. The central bank said that it has handed over 600 billion yuan of balance profits to the central government this year, which is equivalent to investing 600 billion yuan in the base currency, which is basically equivalent to the comprehensive reduction of 0.25 percentage points. Gdp growth in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year. On April 25, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions after this reduction was 8.1%, and the reduction released a total of 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. In March, the mainland exported 4.945 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.325 million tons month-on-month, down 34.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative exports from January to March were 13.179 million tons, down 25.5% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, a total of 1,824.6 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, more than twice the issuance volume of the same period last year, of which 1,298.1 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, higher than the first quarter of 2019 and 2020, which was the fastest special bond issuance speed in the same period in history. After entering April, infrastructure investment continued to exert efforts, and a number of major projects were started in many places. Domestic PMI in March was 49.5%, down 0.7% month-on-month. On Friday, the production of major steel grades increased by 11,100 tons month-on-month. In March, global iron ore shipments increased by 10.48 million tons to 118 million tons month-on-month, China's 45 port arrivals increased by 10.64 million tons month-on-month, port inventories fell by 3.68 million tons month-on-month, and ships in port fell by 3. Average daily molten iron production is expected to rise to 2.35 million tonnes in April. From April 11 to April 17, China's 47 port iron ore arrivals were 22.899 million tons, an increase of 3.281 million tons month-on-month, 45 port iron ore arrivals were 22.435 million tons, an increase of 3.577 million tons, and the arrival volume of the six northern ports was 11.833 million tons, an increase of 3.161 million tons. The latest phase of Auber-Pakistan 19 MTR shipments totaled 23.55 million tonnes, up 715,000 tonnes week-on-week. Australian mine shipments increased by 529,000 tons to 17,842,000 tons month-on-month, of which shipments to China increased by 2,004,000 tons to 15,227,000 tons, and Brazilian mine shipments increased by 5.708 million tons, an increase of 186,000 tons. This week, the iron ore disk shock weakened, but still maintained a high level of operation, spot market prices rose and fell, low-grade ore premiums strengthened again, and the basis widened. Due to the repeated epidemics, many places in Tangshan have once again implemented temporary sealing and control, and transportation in the region has been restricted, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials, passive maintenance of some long-process steel mills, and a slight decline in the daily consumption of iron ore this week. However, the recent recovery of molten iron production is more obvious, maintaining operation above 2.3 million tons, which is the high level of the same period in the history of recent years, and it is still expected to further improve in the second quarter. This week, the port has further improved, and the willingness of steel mills to take the initiative to replenish iron ore has increased. Port inventories have been further destocked, and iron ore fundamentals are still improving. In the first quarter, the overall production and sales volume of major overseas mines were less than expected, and the impact of overseas demand diversion made the pressure on the arrival of foreign mines in the mainland since the beginning of the year not much, which supported the domestic ore prices to maintain a high level to a certain extent. This wednesday, the three major mines announced the first quarter financial report, the overall production and sales volume is less than expected, but they all maintain the annual shipment target unchanged, the pace of shipment in the second quarter will accelerate, and the supply will tend to be loose in the second half of the year. At present, the overall black industry chain is still in a game of strong expectations and weak reality, and the recovery speed of terminal consumption is still uncertain. Recently, affected by the repeated epidemics in some areas, the recovery speed of the finished timber table is not as fast as expected, and the peak season is not strong. The low profits of long-process steel mills restrict the short-term upside of iron ore prices. However, in the medium term, under the stable growth expectation, the terminal consumption of far-moon iron elements is not pessimistic. After entering April, infrastructure investment continued to exert efforts, and a number of major projects were started in many places, while domestic finished timber exports were also expected to improve. With the subsequent replenishment of terminal demand, the profits of domestic long-process steel mills are expected to be gradually repaired, the willingness to actively replenish iron ore will be enhanced, and positive feedback will be generated on prices. 【Trading strategy】 Recently, the demand for iron ore has been disturbed again, superimposed on the current profit level of steel mills is low, the pace of terminal demand recovery is still slow, the price is under pressure in the short term, and the operation temporarily maintains the strategy of selling at a high level.
glass	【Market review】 This week, the glass futures disk surface rushed higher and fell back, and the main 09 contract rose 1.2% to close at 2016 yuan. 【Important information】 Spot, the price of the North China glass market this week is basically stable, and the transaction situation is improving. Shahe regional logistics improvement, transactions improved, Shahe manufacturers individual factory inventory is high, the overall look at the vehicle is temporarily less, freight rise is obvious. The shipment situation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region is different, some shipments are good, individual shipments are still limited obviously, and the price is stable during the week. Overall, the market pressure in North China still reflects the high inventory of individual factories, it is expected that short-term production and sales can be continued, the price adjustment momentum is weak, and the continuity of production and marketing of float factories in the later period is concerned. On the supply side, as of this Thursday, there were a total of 304 float glass production lines nationwide, 259 in production, and the daily melting volume totaled 172025 tons, flat compared with last week. There were no changes in the production line during the week. On the demand side, the domestic float glass market demand during the week was general, and the local restrictions lifted the processing plant operation to rise. During the week, the restrictions in some parts of East China were gradually lifted, the start of processing plants was resumed to a certain extent, and the logistics in North China were improved, and there was a certain replenishment of warehouses in North China and East China. However, on the whole, the order performance is still average, and the continuity of replenishment still needs to wait and see. In terms of inventory, as of this Thursday, the total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 61.82 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.24 million weight boxes over last week, an increase of 3.76%, and the number of inventory days was about 29.88 days, an increase of 1.09 days over last week. 【Trading Strategy】 With the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the smooth flow of logistics and transportation across the country, the most serious impact of the epidemic on glass spot has passed, and the inventory is expected to peak and fall in the later period. At present, the pricing of manufacturers in Shahe and other places is near the break-even point, the policy supports the benign operation of the real estate market, and the completion demand is expected to have not changed significantly, which is a good time to prepare goods. It is recommended that glass deep processing enterprises continue to hold the 09 contract 2000 yuan first-line buy hedging position.
crude	【Market review】 This week, the overall internal and external crude oil maintained a narrow range, and the main CONTRACT of SC crude oil closed at 674 yuan / barrel, down 2.35% weekly. 【Important information】 1, IMF: downgraded the global economic growth forecast, improve the inflation forecast. Reduce the 2022 global economic growth forecast from 4.4% to 3.6% and the 2023 global economic growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.6%. Corresponding to future oil consumption will be under pressure. 2. The U.S. side said it continued to evaluate additional sanctions against Russia. More sanctions are expected against Russia in the coming days. 3. French Finance Minister Le Maire: We have been talking to President Macron about the desire to impose an embargo on Russian oil, and more than ever, we need to strengthen the embargo on Russian oil, with the aim of convincing the EU about the oil embargo in the coming weeks. Estonian Foreign Minister: The EU's next sanctions package for Russia must include sanctions on energy transports such as gas and oil. 3. According to the statistical inquiry data of the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of crude oil in March 2022 was 42.71 million tons, down 13.96% year-on-year and 17.54% month-on-month. Saudi Arabia is still the largest supplier of crude oil, with Saudi crude oil arrivals totaling 6.8583 million tons in March, down 12.50% year-on-year and 3.19% month-on-month. In the same period, China imported 6.3876 million tons of crude oil from Russia, down 14.12% year-on-year and 18.05% month-on-month. 4. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell 8.02 million barrels from the previous week in the week ended April 15, the largest weekly decline since the week ended April 30, 2021; total U.S. gasoline inventories totaled 232.378 million barrels, down 760,000 barrels from the previous week; distillate inventories were 108.735 million barrels, down 2.66 million barrels from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.9 million barrels per day, the highest since the week of May 1, 2020, and 100,000 barrels more than the previous Sunday's average production. 【Trading strategy】 Europe and the United States may continue to increase sanctions against Russia, superimposed market unplanned supply disruption is still increasing, and the supply and demand structure of crude oil remains tight. On the trend, the short-term is expected to maintain a high level of volatility.
bitumen	【Market review】 Futures market: This week's asphalt futures rebounded as a whole, and the main contract closed at 3971 yuan / ton, up 2.32% weekly. Spot market: This week, the main price of junior petrochemical in East China was raised by 50-80 yuan / ton, the price in South China was raised by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of PetroChina in South China was raised by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream transaction price of domestic heavy-duty asphalt in various regions: East China 3900 yuan / ton, Shandong 3660 yuan / ton, South China 3950 yuan / ton, Northwest 3850 yuan / ton, Northeast 4075 yuan / ton, North China 3670 yuan / ton, Southwest 4085 yuan / ton. 【Important Information】 1. Supply side: The operating rate of domestic asphalt refinery units has recently decreased slightly from the previous quarter, and the operating rate level as a whole is at a low level in the same period of history. According to the data of Longzhong Information, the latest phase of the start data shows that the total operating rate of 73 major asphalt refineries in China is 25.10%, a month-on-month change of -2.3%. The equipment maintenance volume of 91 asphalt sample enterprises in China increased month-on-month, and the total capacity loss reached 24.11 million tons. From the perspective of refinery asphalt scheduling, the total planned output of domestic asphalt in April was 2.264 million tons, down 153,000 tons or 6.33% month-on-month, and 713,200 tons or 23.96% year-on-year. 2. Demand: The demand for asphalt in the northern region has been released steadily recently, but due to the impact of rainfall and epidemic prevention and control in the south and other places, the construction of highway projects has progressed slowly, and the performance of asphalt consumption has been sluggish, but with the gradual relaxation of prevention and control policies in some areas, the terminal consumption of asphalt is expected to improve. In addition, there may be a certain demand for stockpiling in the pre-holiday market, and refinery shipments are expected to increase. 3. Inventory: Recently, the inventory of domestic asphalt refineries has decreased significantly, but the social inventory has still maintained a slight growth. The latest inventory data shows that the inventory of 25 major bitumen refineries in China was 986,000 tons, a change of -4.5% month-on-month, and the social inventory of 33 major bitumen in China was 732,000 tons, a change of 0.1% month-on-month. 【Trading strategy】 The high level of crude oil has formed a cost support for asphalt, while the current domestic asphalt consumption is still sluggish, although the supply continues to be low, but the supply and demand structure is limited, and the profit of asphalt is slowly repaired. On the trend, the asphalt unilateral is still driven by cost, and the short-term overall is expected to maintain a high level of volatility.
High and low sulfur fuel oil	【Market review】 This week's low and high sulfur fuel oil price trend differentiation, FU2209 contract fell 202 yuan / ton, down 4.80%, closed at 4006 yuan / ton, low sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 229 yuan / ton, up 4.24%, closed at 5167 yuan / ton. 【Important Information】 1. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of fuel oil in March 2022 was 3.687 million tons, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, and a cumulative increase of 30.70% year-on-year. 2. According to customs data, China's bonded marine oil exports in March 2022 were 1.4962 million tons, an increase of 8.6% compared with February exports. By variety: In March 2022, the export volume of heavy ship fuel was 1.4187 million tons, accounting for 94.82%; the export volume of light MGO was 77,500 tons, accounting for 5.18%. 3. In the week ended April 21, the utilization rate of China's main refinery often decompression capacity was 69.71%, down 2.21% month-on-month and 5.02% year-on-year. 4. Enterprise Singapore (ESG): Fuel inventories in Singapore increased by 3.512 million barrels to 23.103 million barrels in the week ended 20 April. 5. According to PJK data: Fuel oil inventories in the ARA region were 954,000 tonnes for the week ended April 21, an increase of 0.6 million tonnes per week. 【Aftermarket view】 Crude oil cost side: supply elasticity is still maintained at a low level, geopolitical risk premium weakened but disturbances persist, Russia gap is difficult to make up, although the IMF lowered the economic forecast outlook, crude oil demand weakened compared with expectations, but some of the more serious areas of the epidemic may improve after May, although the second quarter is the off-season for crude oil demand, crude oil demand is still tough, it is expected that demand will not appear a sharp decline risk, the second quarter of global crude oil supply and demand is still maintained in a tight pattern, superimposed low inventory background, Prices are still strongly supported. Fuel oil cracking price difference: in April, some domestic refineries entered the overhaul, and independent refineries and main refineries for profit and demand considerations, the operating rate fell sharply, for domestic fuel oil, the overall supply and demand reduction state, but now the supply side of the reduction dominates, the refinery operating rate continues to decline May indicate that the pattern of fuel oil in April continues to be stronger than crude oil is difficult to change in a short period of time. Operation strategy: From the perspective of fundamental performance, fuel oil is still dominated by multi-allocation, focusing on timing and space selection; the fuel oil cracking spread in April is expected to remain strong.
Polyolefins	【Market review】 Futures market: this week's polyolefin prices rushed up and fell, LLDPE2209 contract weekly rose 43 yuan / ton, up 0.49%, closed at 8872 yuan / ton, PP2209 contract weekly rose 79 yuan / ton, up 0.91%, closed at 8754 yuan / ton. Spot market: As of the week of April 22, LLDPE spot market price consolidation is the mainstay, the weekly price change in each district is 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE is 8850-9300 yuan / ton. The weekly price change of PP in each district is 50-100 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of north China wire drawing is 8600-8700 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of east China wire drawing is 8700-8830 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of south China wire drawing is 8800-9000 yuan / ton. 【Fundamentals and important information】 1. National Bureau of Statistics: In March 2022, the output of plastic products in the mainland was 7.878 million tons, up 6.3% year-on-year; the total output of plastic products in the mainland from January to March was 19.263 million tons, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year. 2. On April 22, 2022, the inventory level of major producers was 765,000 tons, compared with 35,000 tons of warehouses on the previous working day, a decrease of 4.40%, and the inventory of the same period last year was about 850,000 tons. 3. In the week of April 21, 2022, the operating rate of agricultural film was 35% (-5%), the packaging operating rate was 58% (+3%), and the rest was flat; the operating rate of plastic knitting was 45% (-3%), the injection operating rate was 48% (-2%), and the BOPP operating rate was 57.22% (+7.22%). 4. In the week of April 21, 2022, the PE operating load rate was 72.39% (+3.02%), and the PP operating load rate was 80.57% (-2.07%). 【Trading strategy】 The recent installation load and maintenance equipment is still relatively concentrated, the operating load continues to maintain a low level, under the pressure of high cost, the new production capacity is expected to slow down, the supply side is still limited, the demand side, although the worst demand time has passed, but the local regional logistics factors are still there, the downstream new orders Limited start part continues to decline, although the raw material inventory is low, but the willingness to enter the market procurement is not good, and the short-term demand improvement is slightly less than expected. At the same time, the cost side support is especially in, the price still has strong support, in the supply and demand of the weak pattern, the short-term expected polyolefin prices to be narrow range, the medium term is still suitable for multi-allocation, it is recommended to continue to hold more orders.
ethylene glycol	Futures market: This week, the ethylene glycol 05 contract rebounded from the reduction, the EG2205 contract closed at 4952, a weekly increase of 2.27%, and a weekly reduction of 125,600 lots. Spot market: the basis is weaker, and the spot basis is discounted at 05 contract 20-25. 【Fundamentals and important information】 (1) From the supply side, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant maintenance landed, but the port supply pressure is larger. At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant has been stopped, but Far Eastern Union's 500,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant was originally scheduled to be overhauled in May, but it is now postponed to June. After the two are hedged, the impact on the oil supply is relatively small. In terms of coal system, Guanghui has produced polyester-grade finished products, commissioning in progress; 300,000 tons / year in Qianxi is planned to be overhauled in May; Jianyuan 260,000 tons / year of the installation due to raw material problems stopped, Huayi 200,000 tons / year of the installation on Friday, is expected to last 20 days, Anhui Red Sifang Monday from semi-full load parking, is expected to be short stop mainly. In terms of imports, the recent arrival of Saudi contract goods in Hong Kong has been concentrated, and the supply of imported goods is too much. Overall, the national output as a whole is stable, but the import volume is concentrated in the port, and the port pressure is greater. (2) From the demand side, the polyester operating rate may gradually stabilize, and the medium-term rebound is expected, focusing on the epidemic situation and logistics in East China. This week, the polyester operating rate was 79.9%, although it is still at a low level, but it has rebounded from Monday's operating rate. In the short term, at present, some polyester factories have been slightly negative by the disturbance of the epidemic, and some bottle factories have rebounded. We believe that the recent polyester operating rate is at the bottom, and the follow-up will gradually stop falling and rise, the inflection point or after May Day. In the medium and long term, the future rebound space of polyester operating rate will depend on the recovery of demand after the epidemic control, and considering the Hangzhou Asian Games, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will have a certain degree of resistance to falling after it is raised. Temporarily give 83% of the operating rate of polyester in April, and cautiously give 85%-86% in May. (3) From the inventory side, on April 18 (Monday), the main port of East China ethylene glycol inventory was 1.087 million tons (+0.1 million tons). From April 18 to April 24, the main port in East China is expected to arrive at 192,000 tons, and the recent port shipment efficiency is slow, which is expected to continue to accumulate. 【Trading Strategy】 Although the downstream demand is expected to rebound, it is difficult for the port to achieve a large destocking in the short term, and there is a certain risk of expansion in the follow-up, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the near future, with a reference range of 4700-5000.
PTA	Futures market: This week, the PTA shock is strong, the TA2209 contract closed at 6168, a weekly increase of 0.78%, an increase of 107,900 lots. Spot market: the basis is strong, and the spot is negotiated near 09+80~85. 【Fundamentals and important information】 (1) From the cost side, the cost side is highly volatile. The current supply and demand reality of the crude oil market is still tight, which constitutes the support below oil prices, but in the long run, due to the great uncertainty on the supply side, oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. In terms of PX, the Hainan Refining PX device was delayed in restarting, and under the influence of the paper market, the recent PX-NAP performance was strong, and the PTA cost side was relatively strong compared with crude oil. (2) From the supply side, maintenance and restart are parallel, and the PTA operating rate will continue to run at a low level from April to May. At present, Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million tons/year PTA plant is followed up, and the restart time is to be determined. Ningbo Yisheng PTA device has gradually increased its burden, and the logistics situation in East China is gradually improving. However, considering the follow-up PTA plant maintenance plan of 3.75 million tons/year in Yisheng Dalian, 1#3.6 million tons/year in Yisheng New Materials, and 2 million tons/year in Hainan, if cashed in, the operating rate of PTA units in April-May will continue to be low. (3) From the demand side, the polyester operating rate may gradually stabilize, and the medium-term rebound is expected, focusing on the epidemic situation and logistics in East China. This week, the polyester operating rate was 79.9%, although it is still at a low level, but it has rebounded from Monday's operating rate. In the short term, at present, some polyester factories have been slightly negative by the disturbance of the epidemic, and some bottle factories have rebounded. We believe that the recent polyester operating rate is at the bottom, and the follow-up will gradually stop falling and rise, the inflection point or after May Day. In the medium and long term, the future rebound space of polyester operating rate will depend on the recovery of demand after the epidemic control, and considering the Hangzhou Asian Games, it is expected that the polyester operating rate will have a certain degree of resistance to falling after it is raised. Temporarily give 83% of the operating rate of polyester in April, and cautiously give 85%-86% in May. (4) From the inventory side, the PTA social inventory on April 22 was 2.701 million tons (-28,000 tons). 【Trading Strategy】 As the downstream polyester operating rate gradually stops falling, the follow-up PTA is expected to gradually return to the balance of supply and demand, and it is expected that the basis will gradually stop falling and stabilize. Unilaterally, the PTA is expected to follow the crude oil shock, operating in the range of 6000-6500. In the medium term, the 09 contract recommends a pullback to buy, and the layout needs to repair the market. Cross-symbol considering callbacks to long TA short EG. Risk Warning: Crude oil prices fell sharply.
Staple fiber	Futures market: This week, staple fiber rose first and then suppressed. PF06 closed at 7872, up 68 yuan / ton weekly, or 0.87% weekly. Spot market: spot is tight, transportation costs are high, enterprise quotations and spot prices are stable and rising, factory weekly production and sales of 41.07% (-1.40%), production and marketing is flat, Jiangsu spot price of 7950 (week + 125) yuan / ton. 【Important information】 (1) On the cost side, the cost is strong and volatile. Crude oil inventories are low, the supply is still tight, and the oil price is high; PTA processing fees are low, the maintenance of the device is increased, and the price follows the cost fluctuation; the maintenance of the ethylene glycol device increases, but the inventory pressure is still there, and the price follows the weak cost shock. (2) On the supply side, some devices will be restarted, and the supply is expected to pick up. Huiweishi 150,000 tons of April 19 overhaul week; Fujian Yijin 70,000 tons of parking; Sanfang Lane added 80,000 tons of production capacity maintenance; Jiangyin Huahong 150,000 tons of march 31 parking maintenance, restart is undecided; Luoyang Shihua 40,000 tons of plant stopped on March 28, is expected to restart at the end of April; Huaxi chemical fiber 200,000 tons of March 15 parking, or there is a device to continue to park; Chuzhou Xingbang 200,000 tons of April parking, planned to restart at the end of April. As of April 22, the short operating rate of direct spinning polyester was 63.2% (+1.7%). (3) On the demand side, the downstream start of construction has rebounded in a narrow range, but the demand for raw materials is weak. As of April 22, the polyester yarn operating rate was 75.7% (+0.7%), and the start-up narrow range recovered, maintaining a relatively high level. The raw material inventory of the polyester mill is 8.7 (-1.4) days, the terminal demand is weak, the superposition transportation is difficult, and the raw material inventory is continuously consumed. The inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products is 20.5 days (+1.5 days), the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products continues to increase. (4) Inventory end, factory inventory of 12.8 days (+0.0 days), although production and marketing is light, but the enterprise operating low, so that inventory maintained in a narrow range of about 12 days. 【Trading strategy】 Short fiber processing fee repair to near the profit and loss line, some devices will be restarted, production is expected to rebound; the demand side is still weak, but under the support of cost, it is expected that the current PF06 fluctuates in the range of 7500~ 8100. In the medium term, if the epidemic eases, the downstream will be concentrated on replenishment, or support prices are strong.
styrene	Futures market: This week, styrene under the support of cost and demand, the price shock strengthened. EB06 closed at 9765, up 246 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, or 2.58% weekly. Spot market: strong cost, port to the warehouse, downstream storage of month-end replenishment and pre-holiday stocking demand, enterprise quotations and spot prices rose, Jiangsu spot 9800/9840, late May 9810/9840, late June 9795/9815. 【Important information】 (1) Cost side: cost is strong shock. Crude oil inventories are low, the supply is still tight, and oil prices are high and volatile; pure benzene is declining, demand is expected to be good, and prices are strong; ethylene cost support is still there, and the price is high. (2) Supply side: short-stop devices have been restarted one after another, and production is expected to pick up. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 1.2 million-ton plant resumed normal production on April 18; Daqing Petrochemical's 125,000-ton and Sino-Korean Petrochemical's 28,000-ton plant were scheduled to restart on April 23; HSBC's 25,000-ton plant stopped on April 16 and was scheduled to restart on May 5; Yanshan Petrochemical's 80,000-ton shutdown on April 21 and planned to restart in June; and Shandong Huaxing's 80,000-ton shutdown on March 15 and is expected to restart in mid-May. As of April 21, the weekly operating rate was 76.86% (+3.62%). (3) Demand side: some enterprises in East China resumed work, logistics have improved, downstream construction has rebounded, and there is a demand for delivery replenishment and pre-holiday stocking at the end of the month. As of April 21, the PS operating rate was 65.94% (+2.34%), the EPS operating rate was 57.87% (+9.96%), and the ABS operating rate was 76.54% (+2.52%). (4) Inventory end: As of April 20, the inventory of East China port was 12.48 (-0.51) million tons, the arrival of goods was less than the pick-up, the inventory fell narrowly, and there were still export shipments in the follow-up. (5) Production profit: the loss of non-integrated devices is about 700 yuan / ton. 【Trading strategy】 Styrene is strong under the boost of strong raw materials, month-end replenishment and pre-holiday stockpiling, but the downstream start is generally weak at the moment, styrene upside space is limited. It is expected that the current styrene is still maintained in the range of 9500 ~ 10000 yuan / ton, it is recommended that the shock idea be treated. In May, the epidemic is expected to ease and downstream demand will improve, but styrene Tianjin Bohua 450,000 tons will be put into production, the supply and demand loose pattern is difficult to change, and it is expected to maintain a high level of wide range under cost support.
liquefied petroleum gas	【Market review】 This week, the PG06 contract rushed up and fell, as of the close, the PG06 contract closed at 6020 yuan / ton, and the futures price fell by 149 yuan / ton, a decline of 2.42%. 【Important information】 Crude oil: Data released by the US EIA shows that as of the week ended April 15, US commercial crude oil inventories were 413.733 million barrels, down 8.02 million barrels from the previous week, gasoline inventories were 232.378 million barrels, down 761,000 barrels from last week, refined oil inventories were 108.735 million barrels, down 2.664 million barrels from last week, and Cushing crude oil inventories were 26.152 million barrels, down 185,000 barrels from last week. Inventory data is too much, and oil prices are volatile at high levels. Spot side: Saudi CP in May this week, propane is expected at $861/ton, down $11/ton from last week. In June, CP predicted propane at $829/ton, down $7/ton from last week. This week, the ex-factory price of civil gas of Guangzhou Petrochemical rose by 20 yuan / ton to 6218 yuan / ton, the ex-factory price of civil gas of Shanghai Petrochemical rose by 200 yuan / ton to 5050 yuan / ton, and the ex-factory price of Qilu petrochemical industrial gas rose by 350 yuan / ton to 6500 yuan / ton. Supply side: This week, Lianli Petrochemical in East China entered the maintenance period, and there are no new maintenance plans in other regions. Overall, there are more maintenance units in the northern region, and due to the impact of manufacturers' load reduction production and self-use increase, the output and commodity volume have both declined, and the domestic supply has declined significantly. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, as of April 21, the average output of liquefied petroleum gas on the mainland was 67,886 tons/day, a decrease of 2,268 tons/day from the previous week, a decrease of 3.23%. Demand side: As the epidemic gradually improves, industrial demand gradually picks up, and the operating rate of MTBE devices in the week of April 21 was 46.6%, an increase of 0.02% over the previous week, and the operating rate of alkylated oil plants was 53.4%, an increase of 1.24% over the previous period. Previously, the maintenance of PDH devices resumed production, and the PDH operating rate this week was 68.18%, an increase of 4.86% over last week, and the civil gas warmed up with the temperature, and the demand will decline in stages. Inventory: According to the data of Zhuo Chuang statistics on April 21, in late April, 4 ships of frozen cargo arrived in South China, totaling 84,000 tons, 9 ships of frozen cargo in East China arrived at the port, a total of 374,000 tons, east China port inventory was 41%, an increase of 2% over the previous period, south China terminal inventory of 65%, an increase of 2% from the previous period. Warehouse orders: This week, Qingdao Sports increased by 150 warehouse receipts, Ningbo Baidi increased by 247 warehouse receipts, and the total number of warehouse receipts increased by 397 to 3088. 【Trading strategy】 Crude oil short-term continue to downward space is limited, the cost side of the liquefied gas still has support, the current fundamentals are weak, the futures price on the weak momentum, the operation of the high flat multi-order, swing operation. At present, we are paying close attention to the changes in the crude oil market.
methanol	【Market review】 Methanol futures tested the 2850 first-line support after stabilizing and recovering, the center of gravity rose positively, breaking through the 3000 integer mark, the highest touched 3027, but failed to successfully break upwards, the resistance near the 20-day moving average was larger, the disk surface was under pressure, giving back the previous gains, and the weekly K line recorded a long upper shadow line, down 0.31%. 【Important information】 The high level of futures adjustment, the confidence of market participants has been hit, the domestic methanol spot market has performed generally, prices have loosened, and the performance of coastal markets has not been as good as that of the mainland market. After the quotation of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was narrowly lowered, the northern line of Inner Mongolia negotiated 2500-2560 yuan / ton, and the southern line area negotiated 2480 yuan / ton. After the quotation was lowered, the methanol manufacturer signed the order, and the overall shipment was smooth. The upstream coal market price is deadlocked, the cost side tends to be stable, and the production pressure of enterprises is acceptable. In April, the plant maintenance increased, the plant operating load in the northwest, south China and north China decreased, and the operating rate of the methanol industry fell by 2.84 percentage points month-on-month, falling below 70%. According to the maintenance plan announced by the company, the number of installation shutdowns in May is not much, the level of methanol operation may be difficult to fall sharply, the supply of goods remains stable, and there is a tightening of regional output. The market trading atmosphere has cooled down, the downstream purchase gas is insufficient, and the holders have reduced prices to let the profits discharge goods. The downstream market operation is cautious, just need to replenish the main, procurement enthusiasm is not good. The load reduction of the parking of Qinghai Salt Lake and individual coastal units, and the operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants have dropped to 86.76%, which is still at a relatively high level, and methanol just needs to be stabilized. The traditional demand industry has not improved significantly, and the start of formaldehyde and acetic acid has rebounded in a narrow range, while the start of dimethyl ether and MTBE has declined. Cargo arrivals increased, and inventories in coastal areas increased to 826,800 tonnes. Due to the slow unloading and warehousing speed, the accumulation of methanol port stocks is not obvious. 【Trading strategy】 With the recovery of imports, the market will enter the accumulation stage, the demand improvement space is limited, the methanol upward movement lacks drive, and the short orders that have been entered can be reduced in an appropriate amount near 2850, and the swing operation is the mainstay.
PVC	【Market review】 PVC main contract shift position to 09 contract, far month contract discount, disk rise and fall interactive operation, the center of gravity hovering above the 9000 mark, there is a certain resistance to the upside, the futures price is adjusted high, fell below the 60-day moving average support, the lowest touched 8813, a weekly decline of 2.19%, recorded three consecutive yin. 【Important information】 Market participants wait-and-see sentiment spread, the domestic PVC spot market atmosphere is general, transactions show a tepid trend, the mainstream prices in various regions are weak and loose, and the supply of low-priced goods has increased. The upstream raw material calcium carbide market continued to be weak, the price center of gravity continued to move down, the factory price was lowered by about 100 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase price was lowered by 50-100 yuan / ton. The cost pressure of calcium carbide enterprises is gradually revealed, some of them have fallen into losses and have increased, there is a phenomenon of load reduction, the supply of calcium carbide has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened synchronously, the source of calcium carbide supply is still excessive, the supply and demand relationship in the short term is difficult to reverse, and the PVC cost side lacks support. PVC performance is stronger than the raw material market, and the profits of production enterprises are acceptable. The pre-sale of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest continues to decline, the recent order acceptance situation is not good, the inventory of manufacturers has increased, and the factory quotation is flexibly adjusted. The number of maintenance enterprises increased, the operating load of the PVC industry decreased slightly, and some production was lost. PVC start-up is still maintained at more than 80%, the overall supply of goods is abundant, there are still more enterprise maintenance plans in the later stage, and the supply side is expected to tighten. The downstream market demand is weak, the downward transmission of high-priced goods is blocked, and the actual negotiated price of PVC is lower. Traders react to poor shipments, price reductions and profits. There are not many orders for downstream products factories, the production enthusiasm is not high, the overall operating load is low, and the purchase of the market is more cautious. Exports increased significantly in March to more than 200,000 tonnes, and the price gap between inside and outside the country narrowed recently. Transportation in some areas was blocked, and there were not many arrivals in East and South China, and social inventories fell in a narrow range, shrinking to 328,700 tons. 【Trading strategy】 In the second quarter, the market demand is expected to recover, the current force has not yet been exerted and the time process is needed, pvc futures high shock wash, the space below or limited, should not be excessively killed, pay attention to the support near 8800.
steam coal	【Market review】 This week, the main contract of thermal coal ZC2205 was sorted out sideways, and the center of gravity moved slightly upwards, and the overall situation of narrow oscillation was presented. The main 2205 contract closed at 822 yuan / ton on Friday, up 0.24% weekly. 【Important information】 The spot quotation of 5500 kcal at the port is about 1195 yuan / ton. From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, coal mine output remains high, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the enthusiasm for pit mouth procurement is low, and the price of some pit mouth coal has been reduced. In terms of inventory, after the recovery of transportation on the Daqin Line, the overall inventory has rebounded, and the inventory of the Yangtze River Estuary has risen rapidly due to the impact of the epidemic. At present, due to the decline in port spot prices again, under the psychological effect of buying up and not buying down in the off-season, downstream power plants are mostly wait-and-see. On the demand side, the daily consumption of coastal terminal power plants has dropped significantly, affected by the epidemic, many factories are in a state of production reduction or shutdown, and then superimposed on the arrival of the traditional off-season, the overall terminal demand is relatively light. In terms of imported coal, due to the inversion of internal and external prices, the enthusiasm for market procurement is not high, and the overall situation is still mainly wait-and-see, and there are fewer transactions. 【Trading Strategy】 On the whole, the current price index has stopped, the spot price is weak again, and the supply side maintains normal output. On the demand side, the pit mouth haulage affected by the epidemic is relatively light, and the port has increased its enthusiasm for hauling with the price increase. In terms of inventory, the capacity of the Daqin Line has recovered, and the port inventory has once again shown an upward trend. On the whole, the fundamentals of thermal coal are relatively light, before the epidemic situation has not seen a significant improvement, it is recommended to maintain the short operation idea, and the appropriate amount of shorting can be added to the high, the support level below the 05 contract is 700, and the pressure level above is 1000. In terms of options, due to the small transaction and position volume, it is recommended to wait and see.
soda ash	【Market review】 This week, the soda ash futures disk shock weakened, and the main 09 contract fell 0.93% to close at 3106 yuan. 【Important information】 Spot, this week's domestic soda ash market is strong. This week, the mainstream factory price of domestic light alkali new single is 2550-2750 tons, the mainstream price of light alkali sent to the terminal by manufacturers is 2850-2950 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic light alkali factory is 2689 yuan / ton on April 21, up 2% from the average price on April 14; this week, the price of domestic heavy alkali new orders sent to the terminal is 2850-2950 yuan / ton. This week, the supply of low-priced goods in the domestic soda ash market has decreased, and the number of manufacturers accepting orders is acceptable. This week, the overall operating load of soda ash manufacturers has increased, the supply of market supplies has increased, the number of manufacturers to be sent is sufficient, most of the inventory has declined, new orders are sold, and the new domestic light alkali quotations rose by 50-100 yuan / ton during the week, and some manufacturers sealed orders. This week, some of the photovoltaic glass production lines ignited, the demand for heavy alkali support is good, float glass shipments are general, some light alkali downstream products are not profitable, and soda ash is purchased on demand. Later in the week, the weak adjustment of disk prices increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry increased. On the supply side, the early maintenance and reduction manufacturers have gradually returned to normal, and the output is at a recent high. This week's soda ash industry load was 85.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average operation of ammonia alkali manufacturers is 88.9%, the average operation of joint alkali manufacturers is 80.7%, and the average operation of natural alkali plants is 100%. Zhuo Chuang information statistics this week's soda ash manufacturers production of about 577,000 tons. On the demand side, the recent domestic float glass manufacturers have poor profitability, and the demand for heavy alkali is temporarily stable; the amount of photovoltaic glass for heavy alkali continues to increase; the recent daily glass market is not good, the operating load is stable, and the profitability of manufacturers is general. This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 1.25 million tons (including some manufacturers' port and foreign warehouse inventory), a decrease of 3.5% month-on-month. 【Trading strategy】 After the spot price is higher, the downstream replenishment power has weakened, and the recent inventory destocking of production enterprises and traders has been relatively flat, and the bullish sentiment has receded. Since the beginning of the year, energy prices have risen and geographical uncertainties have increased, the demand for photovoltaic cells at home and abroad has increased significantly, the speed of photovoltaic glass production has accelerated, and the supply and demand situation of soda ash in 2022 will be significantly tight due to the delay in the commissioning of new devices. In the next period, focus on the destocking of the industrial chain during the downturn of the disk, and the downstream enterprises of the industrial chain should wait for the resonance buying hedging opportunity of deep inventory destocking and market stabilization.
urea	【Market review】 Last week, the urea futures were shocked at a high level, and the weekly oscillation of the main 09 contract rose by 0.79% to close at 2818 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 Last week, the domestic urea market rebounded slightly, but the fluctuation range was small. Local logistics and transportation have improved, the number of export ports has risen, the number of pre-received orders of enterprises has increased, and the market price mentality has gradually grown. The frequent failure of the urea device and the alternation of resumption of production have also made the average daily output of urea unstable, and the output is expected to continue to rise next week, but the opening and stopping of the southwest gas head device still has an impact on the mood. Secondly, the agricultural demand in the downstream northeast has gradually increased, and the southern rice topdressing and fertilizer preparation have been promoted, and although the industrial demand is relatively stable, it is more necessary to purchase because of the higher price. As of last Friday, the mainstream of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong was 2890-2930 yuan / ton, the high-priced supply did not change much, the low-priced supply rebounded more, and the mainstream of Henan small and medium-sized particles was 2900-2910, and the average price was 20 yuan / ton higher than last week. On April 21, India IPL issued a tender for the purchase of 78,000 tons of urea, with a bid opening date of April 26 and a latest shipment date of May 15. It is expected that there will be a million-level procurement tender at the end of this month. 【Trading strategy】 The northeast reserves increase, the southern topdressing, the agricultural fertilizer stabilization and recovery, the industrial demand is stable, the impact of the epidemic disturbance is gradually weakening; the inventory of urea production enterprises is falling, the coal cost and the high international price are driven upwards; the supply and demand of urea are concentrated in the country, there is no major change in the situation of ensuring supply and stable prices, and the increase in marginal export orders makes the upstream deposit price mentality, but the existence of forensic inspection, the number is limited, and the production enterprises recommend selling at a high price or grasping the opportunity to sell at a high price. Short-term futures prices break through the technical pressure level, speculative disks can be more short-term operations.
coking coal	【Market review】 This week' coking coal 09 contract rushed up and fell, the futures price closed down, as of Friday's close, the futures price closed at 3000.5 yuan / ton, the futures price fell 151.5 yuan / ton, down 4.81%. From the perspective of the disk trend, the short-term futures price maintains a high level of volatility. 【Important information】 The raw coal production of the 53 sample coal mines in Fenwei Energy statistics this week was 5.9156 million tons, down 165,300 tons from last week, and the decline in raw coal production was mainly due to the suspension of production of three coal mines in Shanxi, which is expected to stop production until May. Sample of 110 coal washing plants: the operating rate of 70.071% increased by 0.66% from the previous period; the average daily output of 591,800 tons increased by 0.09 million tons. From the perspective of the operating rate of coal washing plants, the operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the short-term supply increase is still relatively limited. Demand side: Recently, the transportation department has asked for the liberalization of transportation, the car shipment has eased, and the arrival of coking enterprises has improved. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises this week was 76.97%, an increase of 1.26% over the previous period. The average daily output of the full sample was 1.1203 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons over the previous period. Imported coal: the current Ganqi Maodu port daily customs clearance restored to about 250 vehicles, Mandula resumed customs clearance, the average daily customs clearance of about 70 vehicles, according to the news that the Ceke port will resume coal transportation next week, when the Amount of Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance will continue to rise compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory: the overall coking coal inventory was 24.586 million tons, down 413,900 tons from last week, and the inventory fell for twelve consecutive weeks. 【Trading strategy】 At present, the operating rate of coal washing plants remains stable, and the supply is still difficult to increase significantly, while the import volume of Mongolian coal is declining, the supply is still tight in the short term, and the local demand will decline due to the impact of the epidemic, but it will not change the overall trend of improvement. In the case of low inventories, coking coal futures prices are still supported. In operation, the low long order of the 09 contract can be appropriately reduced, waiting for the opportunity to intervene after the end of the pullback.
coke	【Market review】 This week, the coke 09 contract rushed up and fell, the futures price closed down, as of the close, the futures price closed at 3830 yuan / ton, and the futures price fell by 168 yuan / ton, down 4.2%. 【Important information】 This week, the six rounds of coke rose by 200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 1200 yuan / ton, and the profit of 30 sample coking enterprises counted by Mysteel was 338 yuan / ton, an increase of 80 yuan / ton over last week. Supply side: Recently, the transportation department has asked for the liberalization of transportation, the car shipment has eased, and the arrival of coking enterprises has improved. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises this week was 76.97%, an increase of 1.26% over the previous period. The average daily output of the full sample was 1.1203 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons over the previous period. Demand side: Due to the repeated epidemic situation, many places in Tangshan were temporarily sealed again this week, during which the area's automobile transportation was severely restricted, and the fire transportation capacity was insufficient, and the raw fuel inventory of steel mills declined, resulting in new overhauls in the blast furnaces of some steel companies. Among the 23 steel enterprises in Tangshan, a total of 2 new blast furnaces have been added, involving an average daily output of about 08,000 tons per day. There are still phased disturbances in demand caused by the epidemic. Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills blast furnace operating rate of 79.8%, down 0.31% from the previous period, down 5.7% from last year; the average daily output of molten iron was 2.3297 million tons, down 0.33 million tons month-on-month, down 42,600 tons year-on-year. The impact of the epidemic on molten iron is limited, and the epidemic situation gradually improves in the later period, and the production of molten iron will still be stable and increasing. Inventory: In the week of April 21, the overall inventory of coke was 10.281 million tons, down 235,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory fell for three consecutive weeks, and the current overall inventory is still at a low level in the same period. 【Trading Strategy】 The epidemic has a certain disturbance in short-term supply and demand, but as the impact of the epidemic gradually fades, the situation of both supply and demand remains unchanged. At present, the problem of tight coking coal supply still exists, the space for coal prices to go down is limited, the cost has a certain support for coke, and the low-level long order of the 09 contract can be appropriately reduced in operation, waiting for the opportunity to intervene after the end of the pullback.
Soybean meal	【Market review】 This week, the main soybean meal 09 contract is strong, standing at 4000 after exploring the 4100-4300 position; the US bean 07 contract, further exploring the 1700 position, standing firm and testing the 1700 support. Coastal oil mills quoted across the week rose across the board, Tianjin 4560 yuan / ton, Shandong 4440 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 4420 yuan / ton, Guangdong 4280 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 On April 22, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 504,300 tons of imported soybeans, and 396,500 tons were traded, with a turnover rate of 78.63% and an average transaction price of 5169 yuan / ton. According to China's customs statistics, China's soybean meal exports in March were 49,760.517 tons, down 23.8% month-on-month and 48.1% year-on-year. Soybean meal imports in March were 5638.765 tons, an increase of 40.6% month-on-month and a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year. According to consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazil's 2021/22 soybean crop harvest progress reached 87.2% as of April 14, a slight increase from the previous week's harvest progress of 85.5%, although this is still lagging about 90% in the same period last year, which is also the first time since the start of the soybean harvest that it has lagged behind last year's progress. The average harvest progress for the same period over the past five years was 88.6%. 【Trading Strategy】 The main 07 trend of the US beans is firm, continuously exploring the 1700 cents / Pu position, and is currently temporarily standing above 1700, testing the 1700 support position during the day. After the main force of the meal 09 stood at the 4000 position, it hit the upper moving average pressure level in one fell swoop, rose to the first target position of 4100 yuan / ton, and is expected to explore the previous high after standing at 4100, and after short-term adjustment, it is expected to return to the previous listing channel. The technical 09 contract is bullish; fundamentally, Brazil has been characterized as a production cut on the international side, and the estimated value next month is expected to be slightly lowered. At present, the profit of U.S. beans is at a historically high, and the room for further export sales can be increased is very small, which cannot effectively alleviate the tight situation on a global scale, while the sowing progress of new U.S. beans is slow. In the context of tightening soybean supply and demand on a global scale, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have fallen sharply year-on-year, and even if soybean arrivals have increased since April, the year-on-year increase in May-July is still decreasing. The basic face of soybean meal spot prices has obvious support; from the perspective of the term structure, the basis is weak as expected, but it is still at a high level, the pattern of strong reality and weak expectations remains unchanged, and in the context of fundamental support, considering the reality of the expectation, driving the price of the continuous futures upwards. Soybean meal September contract is expected to continue to be a strong trend, the operation of more than a single consideration to continue to hold, the first target 4100-4200 has been achieved, short-term adjustment, the second target level before the high of 4350 can be expected.
grease	【Market review】 This week, the price of vegetable oil futures diverged slightly, with the main P2209 contract closing at 11078 points, closing down 160 points or 1.42%; the Y2209 contract closed at 11072 points, closing up 130 points or 1.19%. Spot oil market: Guangdong Guangzhou palm oil price range fluctuations, the local market mainstream palm oil quotation 13740 yuan / ton - 13800 yuan / ton, up 280 yuan / ton; traders: 24 degree palm oil pre-sale basis quotation is concentrated in 05 + 950-1050 or so. Guangdong soybean oil prices rose slightly, the local market mainstream soybean oil quotation of 11800 yuan / ton - 11860 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton; Dongguan: the first-class soybean oil pre-sale basis is concentrated in 09 + 690-750 yuan, the basis rose by 90 yuan / ton. 【Important Information】 1. On April 22, according to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated crude palm oil production in Malaysia from April 1 to 20, 2022 increased by 7.24% month-on-month, of which the Malay Peninsula increased by 7.02%, Sabah increased by 7.36%, Sarawak increased by 8.69%, and Eastern Malaysia increased by 7.70%. According to data released by shipping survey agency Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysia exported 632,588 tonnes of palm oil products from April 1 to 20, down 13.7% from 723,997 tonnes on March 1-20. 【Trading Strategy】 The recent sharp rise in oil futures prices is mainly driven by the following two factors: one is that palm oil has entered a seasonal production increase cycle, but geopolitical factors have led to a large degree of impact on The export of Ukrainian sunflower oil and rapeseed oil has been greatly affected, some demand has turned to soybean oil and palm oil, the global oil supply is tight, and geopolitical factors are likely to adversely affect Ukrainian sunflower and rapeseed planting in April and May; second, the US biodiesel policy is still strong. And the good crushing profit of U.S. beans drove the crushing volume of U.S. beans to hit a new high in the same period of history, and the strong demand for U.S. beans made the price of U.S. beans run high. Palm oil high-frequency data this week is more flat, April 1-20 horse palm production is expected to increase by 7-7.7%, while exports are expected to decrease by 13.7-18%, Ramadan stock demand boost limited superimposed horse palm stocks expectations make palm oil performance slightly weaker than soybean oil, Malaysian Human Resources Minister Salavanan said that nearly 180,000 workers will be hired in the next six weeks. If 180,000 workers are in place in June, the monthly increase brought by these 180,000 laborers will be enough to make up for the decline in monthly exports of sunflower oil in the Black Sea region, and palm oil stocks are expected to stop falling and rebound, putting some pressure on high oil futures prices. The market's short-term focus shifts to the planting area of the new season of U.S. beans, the weather in the production area and the progress of new crop sowing, in the context of tight supply and good demand for U.S. beans, if there are abnormal weather conditions in U.S. bean producing areas, it is easy to produce weather speculation. Operationally, the long single part of the take profit continues to be held.
peanut	Futures market: The peanut 10 contract fell sharply this week, closing down 378 points or 4.02% to 9024 yuan / ton. Spot market: The domestic peanut market is running weakly this week. The average weekly price of oilseed peanuts in Linyi, Shandong Province, was 8001 yuan / ton, down 0.36% month-on-month; the average weekly price of oil peanuts in Henan was 8130 yuan / ton, down 0.25% month-on-month; the average weekly price of baisha currency rice in Zhumadian, Henan was 8145 yuan / ton, down 1.27% month-on-month, and the cumulative decrease in the week was 225 yuan / ton; the average price of polished rice on 7 sieves in Jiangtun Baisha, Liaoning Province, was 8980 yuan / ton, down 0.22% month-on-month, and the cumulative decrease of 20 yuan / ton during the week was 20 yuan / ton. Imported rice Sudanese polished rice 8200 yuan / ton, slightly weaker than the previous month. 【Important information】 According to Zhuo Chuang Information: this week, the operating rate of the crushing plant increased by 7.34 percentage points month-on-month, and the weekly purchase volume of the crushing plant fell by 6.6% month-on-month and increased by 70.5% year-on-year; the purchase volume of the domestic wholesale market was 24.33% higher than that of the previous month, and the shipment volume was 9.23% higher than the previous month. The arrival of the crushing plant on Friday: According to Zhuo Chuang information: the main oil plant continued to unload in an orderly manner. There are about 150 cars of Dingtaolu flower peanuts today, with an average daily limit of about 40 cars, the quality requirements are slightly strict, and the oil is slightly lower. Shenzhou Luhua peanuts are about 3,000 tons, with an average of 20 truckloads unloaded per day. Zhengyang Luhua limited to 25 cars into the factory, according to the quality of the price. Xinyi Lu spent 1500 tons, limited unloading. Xinxiang Lu spent a small amount of queue numbers, into about 20 cars. Xiangyang Luhua unloads about 50 cars per day. Fuxin Luhua unloads an average of more than 1,000 tons per day. Buyeo Luhua recently unloaded an average of 800-900 tons per day. Yanzhou plant 70 cars, is expected to press the car. Qingdao plant more than 20 vehicles. Fei County COFCO new to more than 20 vehicles, yesterday there were more than 30 vehicles, limited unloading. The dragon has a large cargo volume of about 36 cars, both large and small. The Jade Emperor grain and oil arrived more than 300 tons, and today it is weak at 50 yuan / ton. 【Trading strategy】 In the short term, the price of peanut oil and meal this week has not changed much, the crushing plant is still profitable, the enthusiasm for starting up is high, and the operating rate of the crushing plant this week has increased by 7.34 percentage points month-on-month, which is at a seasonal high. After the weather warms up, peanuts need to be stored in cold storage, the grass-roots storage conditions are limited, there is a sell-off phenomenon, the large arrival of the press plant makes it have a certain willingness to suppress the price, this week the purchase price of the press plant has been lowered, and the short-term spot price is expected to be weak. However, due to the significant decrease in the arrival of imported peanuts this year, it is expected that the supply pressure caused by seasonal selling in the cold storage stage is less than last year. In the medium and long term, the yield of peanut planting is lower than that of some competitive crops, and the degree of automation of peanut planting is low, and farmers are more willing to change seeds. It is estimated that the reduction of spring mulching peanuts will reach 20%, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the planting situation in May, such as short-term peanut spot prices continuing to fall, or increasing farmers' willingness to change seeds. The large area of peanut reduction is a positive support for the price of peanuts in the medium and long term. In terms of related varieties, the global soybean inventory consumption ratio is at a low level, the fault tolerance rate of US soybean production is low, and the us beans are prone to weather speculation during the growing period; geopolitical conflicts may affect the cultivation of sunflower seeds and rapeseed in the new season in Ukraine, and bulk oilseeds will still run at a high level, which will also have a certain boost to peanut prices. In summary, the phenomenon of no cold inventory selling at the grass-roots level leads to pressure on the arrival of the press plant, the downward adjustment of the purchase price of the press plant will put pressure on the short-term peanut spot price, there are short orders in the short term can be considered to hold cautiously, and it is not recommended to chase the short, because 10 is a new season contract, the peanut price is weak or further aggravates the farmers' sentiment of changing seeds, it is recommended to wait for the plate to stabilize after the layout of the long-term long-term order.
Cuisine	【Market review】 Futures market: This week, the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal rose first and then suppressed, falling 11 yuan / ton during the week, down 0.29%. In terms of vegetable oil, after the main 09 contract suddenly rose along the 13000 shock range, it performed strongly during the week, closing at 13468 in the afternoon, up 75 yuan / ton during the week, up 0.56%. In terms of spot prices, the spot of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills fluctuated steadily during the week, as of Friday, Nantong 3990 yuan / ton, Hefei 3920 yuan / ton, Huangpu 4020 yuan / ton. Spot prices of vegetable oil strengthened, as of Friday Nantong 14240 yuan / ton, Chengdu 14480 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 On April 22, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 504,300 tons of imported soybeans, and 396,500 tons were traded, with a turnover rate of 78.63% and an average transaction price of 5169 yuan / ton. According to consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazil's 2021/22 soybean crop harvest progress reached 87.2% as of April 14, a slight increase from the previous week's harvest progress of 85.5%, although this is still lagging about 90% in the same period last year, which is also the first time since the start of the soybean harvest that it has lagged behind last year's progress. The average harvest progress over the same period over the past five years was 88.6%. 【Trading strategy】 In terms of rapeseed meal, there was a sharp correction on Friday, the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the idea of buying at a low price remained unchanged. Short-term tight supply has not changed. Expectations of easing supply tensions have not changed the current low inventory reality. As the harvest of Brazilian soybeans draws to a close, the yield estimate continues to be lowered, which continues to have a positive impact on U.S. soybeans. Mainland rapeseed and rapeseed meal stocks remain at historically low levels. The long-term supply of U.S. beans will not alleviate the shortage of global oilseed and domestic soybean meal supply in the first half of the year. Canadian rapeseed stocks are expected to bottom in July, which will greatly affect the mainland's rapeseed supply in July-September. And June-October is the peak demand season for rapeseed meal, when the supply tightness is expected to intensify. The recent view remains unchanged, and it is expected that there will be a big fall in September rape meal, and it is expected to continue to be strong, explore the previous high, and continue to hold more orders. In terms of vegetable oil, the recent view remains unchanged. The main 09 contract successfully stood above 13,000 and climbed 13,500 as expected, opening up the upper space. The recovery rate of horse palm production will be further improved, but the situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to a tight short-term supply of oils and fats, and the supply growth rate is lower than the demand growth rate. The fundamentals of rapeseed oil are stronger, South American soybean production is reduced, Canadian rapeseed production is reduced, exports of 23% of the world's Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed are restricted, and the supply of oilseeds is tight before the listing of new crops in the third quarter. The center of gravity is expected to remain high this year. Vegetable oil is expected to maintain a high range shock mainly, and the September contract is considered to continue to hold.
corn	【Market review】 Futures market: the main 09 contract showed a downward trend this week, closing at 2985 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.51%; spot market: corn spot prices rose slightly this week. As of Friday, Jinzhou and Bayuquan automobile transportation slowly recovered, Jinzhou Port 2750-2770 yuan / ton, Bayuquan Port 2780-2810 yuan / ton; Guangdong Shekou New Grain Bulk Ship 2900-2950 yuan / ton, container first-class corn quotation 2960-2980 yuan / ton, up 10-20 yuan / ton from the previous Friday; Northeast corn prices are stable and upward, Heilongjiang deep processing mainstream acquisition of 2600-2690 yuan / ton, Jilin deep processing mainstream acquisition 2600-2700 yuan / ton Tons, Inner Mongolia mainstream acquisition of 2640-2800 yuan / ton, Liaoning mainstream acquisition of 2600-2700 yuan / ton, up 10-20 yuan / ton from the previous Friday; North China deep processing corn market slightly stronger, Shandong purchase price of 2800-3020 yuan / ton, Henan 2750-2900 yuan / ton, Hebei 2750-2800 yuan / ton. (China Huiyi Network) 【Important Information】 (1) Corn Sales Progress: As of April 21, the progress of grain sales in the main corn-producing areas in the country was 88%, an increase of 2% over last week and 6% slower than the same period last year. (2) Consumption of deep-processed corn: In the 16th week of 2022 (April 14 to April 20), 126 major corn deep processing enterprises (including 69 starch, 35 alcohol and 22 amino acid enterprises) in the country consumed a total of 911,000 tons of corn, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from the previous week; a decrease of 57,000 tons, a decrease of 5.87% from last year. (Mysteel Agricultural Products) (3) Deep-processed corn stocks: As of April 20, the total corn stocks of processing enterprises were 4.656 million tons, an increase of 2.46% over the previous week. (My agricultural products network) (4) market comments: From the perspective of the outer plate, the current market focus is in two aspects, one is the supply and demand of the old crop, the prospect of the second season of corn production in Brazil is more optimistic, the marginal effect of weather interference is weakened, but the support of the ethanol end of the U.S. corn fuel is still there; the second is the expected sowing area of the new crop, the Russian-Ukrainian interference continues, the market maintains the decline in the planting area of Ukraine and the United States, the relative benefit has a certain continuation, in addition, the market is about to enter the northern hemisphere weather speculation time cycle, the support below the outer futures price is still there, The space for the futures price correction may be limited. From a domestic point of view, the logistics in the production area recovered, and the upstream phased pressure increased, but the support at the breeding end is still there, the effective replacement space of other cereals is limited, and the corn futures price has been adjusted after refreshing the high point, and it is temporarily believed that the lower support has not been broken. 【Trading strategy】 The support below the corn futures price is still there, and it is recommended to maintain the pullback to do more in operation.
starch	【Market review】 Futures market: The main 07 contract showed an upward trend this week, closing at 3421 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 1.85%; spot market: this week's domestic corn starch spot prices are mainly stable. According to china Huiyi network data, as of Friday, Heilongjiang Qinggang corn starch spot quotation was 3200 yuan / ton, flat from the previous Friday; Jilin Changchun corn starch spot quotation was 3250 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous Friday; Hebei Ningjin corn starch quotation was 3300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous Friday; Shandong Zhucheng corn starch quotation was 3380 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous Friday. 【Important information】 (1) Enterprise operating rate: This week (April 14 to April 20), the total amount of corn processing in the country was 477,100 tons, a decrease of 17,700 tons from last week's corn consumption; the weekly national corn starch production was 238,800 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from last week's output. The operating rate was 46.74%, down 3.63% from last week. (2) Enterprise inventory: According to the information of my agricultural product network, as of April 20, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.298 million tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 3.14%, a month-on-month increase of 9.68%; an annual increase of 38.69%. (3) Market comments: Starch futures prices are still around the game of cost and demand, the relative support of the cost side is still there, but the negative feedback on the spot side is also reflected, high inventory has been transmitted upstream, and the pressure on the futures price is still more obvious. 【Trading strategy】 Starch 07 contract short-term or into a narrow range of shocks, the operation is recommended to temporarily return to wait and see.
rubber	【Market review】 Futures market: Recently, Shanghai rubber fell below the consolidation form to accelerate the downward trend, the main contract minimum down to 13010 yuan, the weekly closing down 2.44%. The no. 20 rubber main contract fell at a minimum of 10935 yuan, and the weekly closing fell by 2.01%. 【Important information】 This week, the operating rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 67.12%, +2.32% month-on-month, and -5.55% year-on-year. During the week, most of the sample enterprises started smoothly, and some enterprises raised the start of construction to a high level in order to reserve inventory to meet the demand for foreign trade orders, driving the sample operating rate upward. Overall, foreign trade shipments form a support for the overall shipment of enterprises. The operating rate of China's all-steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, +1.95% month-on-month, and -15.02% year-on-year. During the week, the start of the sample enterprises rose and fell, and the maintenance enterprises gradually returned to a stable start, driving the sample enterprises to start work upwards. However, during the week, some enterprises were affected by external factors to arrange suspension of work and maintenance, which limited the increase in the start of all-steel tire sample enterprises. 【Trading Strategy】 Recently, Shanghai rubber hit a new low, and the finishing trend that lasted for more than a month ended, and the rubber price entered the accelerated bottoming stage. Due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the automotive industry chain, the market generally expects that the domestic automobile production and sales situation in April and May is not optimistic, and the logistics and transportation are not smooth, the demand for tire replacement is weak, and the high inventory of finished products of tire manufacturers hinders the further improvement of the operating rate. However, the import of outer rubber has slowed down, and the spot inventory in Qingdao has been slow, and it is difficult to reverse the situation of year-on-year decline in inventory growth in the later period. Once the downstream demand improves, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more significant, which will be more favorable for rubber prices. Recently, Shanghai rubber has accelerated its bottoming out, and the main contract is expected to find support near 12500-13000 yuan. Rubber product manufacturers can gradually establish virtual inventories in the futures market at low prices.
sugar	【Market review】 Futures market: Recently, Zheng Sugar rushed back down, and the SR209 contract fell at a minimum of 6001 yuan, and the weekly closing was slightly down 0.87%. 【Important Information】 On April 21, 2022, the ICE raw sugar contract closed at 19.82 cents/lb, and the exchange rate of the renminbi was 6.4521. It is estimated that the estimated cost of sugar imports in brazil's quota is 5264 yuan / ton, and the estimated cost of imports with additional sugar is 6714 yuan / ton; the estimated cost of sugar imports in Thailand's quota is 5179 yuan / ton, and the estimated cost of additional sugar imports is 6603 yuan / ton. 【Trading Strategy】 Recently, Zheng Sugar rushed up and fell back, mainly following the fluctuations of international sugar prices. The domestic sugar crushing season has entered the end, and the cumulative output of this year is likely to be less than 10 million tons. Foreign sugar imports in March were 120,000 tonnes, significantly lower than the 200,000 tonnes in the same period last year. April-June is the off-season for sales, and sugar mills may be slower to destock. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the guidance of the planting of sugar crops this year. In terms of external markets, the progress of crushing in Brazil's main producing areas will become the main factor affecting global sugar prices. Moreover, the impact of the geopolitical crisis in Europe should also be closely watched. India's sugar production is strong, but the crushing season is nearing the end, and the market influence is gradually weakening. Recently, the main contract of Zheng Sugar fluctuated at 6000-6100 yuan, waiting for the breakthrough direction to be clear.
Cotton, cotton yarn	From April 18 to 22, Zheng Mian's main contract rose 0.44% to 21455. The main cotton yarn contract rose 0.05% to 28165. Cotton short-term shocks. 【Important information】 The sown cotton fields in Xinjiang in early April have been gradually emerging. 50% of the cotton fields in Kucha on the 6th have been seedlings, and the proportion of seedlings in the drip cotton fields in Fukang on the 12th to 13th is about 70%, and the progress is the same as that of previous years. Recently, the inversion of the internal and external cotton price difference exceeded 2,000 yuan / ton, which deepened from the previous week, and even if the traders let the profits ship, they failed to make the transaction better. The current price has been re-exported, and some traders have begun to operate. At present, the cotton yarn market is still weak, most of them are in a state of loss, and a small number of stockpiled cotton reserves can still protect the capital. Due to the large loss of pure cotton products, some enterprises increase the proportion of blended textiles and chemical fibers, and the cost of control can basically guarantee the capital. The overall operating rate is still declining. 【Trading strategy】 Cotton 09 contract short-term shock, wait-and-see mainly. In terms of options, volatility remains low, options expire for a long time, and there are no opportunities in the short term.
pulp	Futures market: The main contract of pulp futures continued to rise this week, closing at more than 7300 yuan. Spot market: In May, Chilean wood pulp outer disk rose again by 20-30 US dollars / ton, the industry expected the future market cost to remain high, low prices to sell, pulp plate surface higher, the industry basis quotation, spot rise. Southern pine 7200 yuan / ton, silver star, moon 7250 yuan / ton, Kellip 7400-7450 yuan / ton, north wood 7500-7550 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 The double adhesive paper market has been slightly loosened, and the average price of 70g wood pulp double adhesive paper market is 6228 yuan / ton, down 0.16% month-on-month. The transaction of large-scale paper mills is slightly flexible; the shipment of small and medium-sized paper mills is limited, some production lines are shut down for maintenance, the offer is temporarily stable, a single discussion, the logistics in East China continues to be poor, the market transaction is light, and the center of gravity is consolidated; the transaction situation in South China is slightly poor, the actual single price is narrowly declining, and the downstream printing plant is partially shut down, and the demand is not good enough. The price of white cardboard market fluctuated in a narrow range, the center of gravity of the transaction in the north shifted slightly, and the south fell steadily, and the overall transaction of the market was weak. At present, the mainstream market reference price range is 6400-6600 yuan / ton. Trader inventory is not large, local small-scale transportation slightly recovered, coupled with higher operating costs, some traders in the north of the price increased by about 100 yuan / ton, at the end of the month the industry's capital turnover demand increased, but the market shipments were slow, South China after the early rise in high prices began to fall to promote shipments, domestic demand continued to be weak, logistics and transportation recovery There is uncertainty, affecting the market mentality. 【Trading strategy】 Pulp spot market volatility is weaker than the disk surface, high price transactions in general, the current overseas pulp and paper prices are strong and has not improved the supply problem, is the main reason for the current pulp strength. Judging from the start of construction of Zhuo Chuang statistics this week, finished paper has declined, and its Chinese paper has declined significantly, affected by high costs, poor demand, poor shipment, etc., some paper mills have been shut down for maintenance, white cardboard and household paper have also fallen slightly, and white cardboard is still the most stable paper at present. In terms of prices, white cardboard rose slightly, tissue paper and cultural paper fell, but the amplitude is not large, exports are better than domestic demand, the cost of the average price of pulp in the past 6 months is calculated, the current domestic paper mill profit is better than the fourth quarter of last year, but if the price of wood pulp and paper continues until June, then the profit of paper mills will return to the low level, and compared with last year's market, negative feedback occurs after the decline in paper prices and the decline in the operating rate of paper mills. However, the new problem this year is that the supply is tight for 4 months, the recent UPM strike plan extended to mid-May, ILIM once again announced the supply of no drift needle pulp to China, in March China's softwood and hardwood pulp imports are down month-on-month, so the supply reduction supports the pulp price, and the sharp depreciation of the renminbi in the past two weeks has raised the import cost by 100 yuan / ton, resulting in the pulp plate surface high point moved up to 7300 yuan, in the weak supply and demand of the high point still need to be cautious, waiting for the release of demand after the epidemic improves.
apple	【Market review】 Futures price: The main 10 contract showed a downward trend this week, closing at 8507 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 3.33%. Spot price: This week,The weighted average price of paper bag Fuji 80# above the first and second level sources in Shandong this week was 4.01 yuan / jin, up 0.23 yuan / jin compared with last week's weighted average, up 6.08% month-on-month; this week, the weighted average price of more than half of the commodity sources of paper bag Fuji 70# in Shaanxi was 3.22 yuan / jin this week, up 0.06 yuan / jin compared with last week's weighted average price, up 1.90% month-on-month. 【Important information】 (1) Inventory in production areas: As of April 21, the national cold storage apple inventory was 4.25 million tons, lower than the 6.62 million tons in the same period last year, of which the inventory in Shandong was 1.74 million tons, compared with 2.885 million tons in the same period last year, and the inventory in Shaanxi was 1 million tons, compared with 1.6044 million tons in the same period last year. Inventory consumption for the week was 483,200 tons, which continued to recover month-on-month and was in the high range year-on-year. Overall, the shipment speed in Shaanxi has increased significantly, and the inventory pressure is not large. (2) Market comments: The decline in apple futures prices this week is understood to mean that the weather fluctuations are less than expected, and the previous speculation sentiment has cooled down to a certain extent. The current focus of the apple market is mainly on two aspects, one is the expected cash of spot prices, and the other is the weather conditions in the production area. From the perspective of the spot market, low inventory and low fruit rate are still the core support, and the epidemic situation in the sales area has driven the hoarding sentiment and the overall fruit price is strong, further strengthening the bullish support. In terms of new fruits, the current production area has gradually entered the flowering period, weather changes are still the focus of the market, and weather uncertainty will make the volatility of apple futures prices increase. Overall, the expected inertia support of the old fruit high price is still there, superimposed weather uncertainty, apple futures prices do not yet have the basis for a sustained decline, we believe that the relative support of the apple 10 contract is still there, but the weather performance is good, and the support range has moved down by a certain margin. 【Trading strategy】 Apple 10 contract short-term or continue to oscillate at a high level, the operation is temporarily recommended to wait and see.
Jujube	Futures market: The futures price of red dates rose sharply this week, closing up 860 yuan / ton or 7.53% to 12285 yuan / ton. Spot market: this week the spot price of red dates held steady, little change, Cuierzhuang market low-end jujube prices slightly strengthened, Cuierzhuang market special grade 11500-13000 yuan / ton; Henan market special grade 11200-13000 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market 12000-14500 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 According to my agricultural products network estimates: according to the purchase volume and consumption of estimates, the national social inventory balance or 15-18 million tons, from the new dates listed there are still 7 months, if the monthly 20,000-30,000 tons of normal sales in the off-season, the time of the handover or the possibility of disconnection. Judging from the current inventory and consumption situation, there will be no short-term supply gap. According to Zhuo Chuang's estimates: the preliminary forecast is that the remaining inventory in Xinjiang will be about 50,000 tons after being put into storage. 【Trading Strategy】 This week,"Jujube futures price stopped falling sharply rebounded,We believe that the driving factors are as follows: First, the early jujube futures price is lower than the production cost and the same standard spot, the cost end support is strong, there is a period of cash arbitrage opportunities, there is a certain repair demand; second, the inventory quantity is gradually clear after the gradual storage of dates, and the inventory is significantly lower than that of the late supply is more likely; third, the supply and demand fundamentals are expected to improve, and the current jujube storage stage is a phased selling phenomenon, but the selling phenomenon will be greatly reduced after the completion of the warehousing , because the inventory is tighter than usual, there are still about 6 months of sales time window in the later period, and the current profit is very low or even loss, there will be a certain reluctance to sell, the demand side, the Dragon Boat Festival in early June has a large stage demand for checking the first-level gray dates, because this year's terminal is mainly used to buy, the inventory is low, then the rigid replenishment demand in May is expected to drive the price of dates to strengthen, inventory tight enterprises can consider replenishment on the disk or buy to preserve value.
Pig	【Market review】 This week's pig futures price rebounded sharply, the continuous pig index increased and broke through the previous high, and the undervalued futures price is worth repairing. The 05 contract is close to closing, and the main contract is changed to September. As of Friday's close, the 05 contract closed at 13560 yuan / ton, up 7.11% week-on-week, and the main 09 contract closed at 18030 yuan / ton, up 8.35% week-on-week. 05 basis (Henan) 830 yuan / ton, up 980 yuan / ton week-on-week, 09 basis (Henan) - 3640 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton, 59 month-on-month spread - 4470 yuan / ton, down 490 yuan / ton, month-on-month spread slightly lower. The average spot price of three yuan pigs outside the country is 12.58 yuan / kg, up 0.08 yuan / kg week-on-week, the national pig spot continues to rebound from the shock, the basis of the recent month has converged significantly, and the 05 price increase has turned to a premium for Henan and a slight increase in Sichuan. Piglet prices continued their upward trend. 【Important information】 This week, the big commercial firm concentrated on announcing the adjustment plan of each variety delivery library, of which the pig breed delivery library has been added more, in addition to the original eastern area and Hubei delivery warehouse, Hunan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei and other places have new delivery warehouses, of which Sichuan Shengshui 1500 yuan / ton, Hunan Shengshui 1300 yuan / ton. The new delivery library and premium are more friendly to the seller as a whole, and the futures price is more bearish. 【Trading Strategy】 Recently, the domestic epidemic has been constantly invaded, and logistics interruptions in some areas have led to restrictions on the exit of the column. The national pig spot price has rebounded in a large area, and the market sentiment has continued to pick up. The high price of feed makes the breeding profit continue to be sluggish, but the terminal reluctance to sell the sentiment increases, the pig out of the barn weight increased slightly, the national spot in the overall in the multi-place storage support into the seasonal inertia rebound, April to May with the temperature rise, the grass-roots agricultural busy season is approaching or will drive the terminal consumption seasonal pick-up. In addition, the terminal inventory has been gradually digested, the downstream replenishment has been gradually enhanced, and the spot price has bottomed out in a phased manner of 12 pieces/kg. The pig futures price has now risen and flown, reflecting that market expectations have shifted, and it may only be a matter of time before the cycle bottoms. The low level of short-term slaughter volume has fallen and the price of piglets has rebounded continuously, which has verified the month-on-month improvement in production capacity to a certain extent. Near-end under the support of storage, the futures price may continue to rebound rhythmically, but according to the most optimistic assumptions, the spot price has now bottomed out, no longer falling near 12,000 points, and by the end of April to match the maximum increase of African swine fever in 2019 by 3,000 points, then the spot price in May is 15,000 points. Therefore, the space above the near moon may not be too high. In the medium term, the spot in May-July showed a seasonal rebound trend, and the market may further speculate on the expectation of a forward cycle reversal on the basis of a better fundamentals, and the basis and monthly difference may be further lower. Operationally, with short-term fundamentals and expectations improving, the 09 bulls cautiously continue to hold. Pay attention to the delivery of the 05 contract after the new delivery library. 【Risk points】 The inertia of the stock has increased, the epidemic has caused terminal consumption to fall sharply less than market expectations, and feed costs have fallen sharply.
Egg	【Market review】 This week's egg futures price is in a narrow range, the monthly contract shows near strength and far weakness, and the egg index has not been suppressed by the previous high of 4854 points in the short term. As of Friday's close, the egg 05 contract closed at 4476 yuan / 500 kg, up 2.68% week-on-week, the main 09 contract closed at 4817 yuan / 500 kg, up 0.88% week-on-week, 59 spread -341/500 kg, up 75 yuan / 500 kg; egg spot continued to rise strongly, the average price of eggs in the main production area was 4.99 yuan / kg, up 0.38 yuan / kg week-on-week, the average price of the main sales area was 5.08 yuan / kg, up 0.24 yuan / kg, The national average price was 5.02 yuan / catty, up 0.33 yuan / catty from the previous month, and the spot price of eggs rushed to a high in the same period of history. Eliminated chickens nationwide average 5.35 yuan / catty, up 0.13 yuan / catty week-on-week. 【Important information】 1, weekly Zhuo Chuang data show that as of the week of April 17, the national egg production link inventory of 1.72 days, down 0.08 days from the previous week, down 0.02 days year-on-year, the average daily age of eliminated chickens 499 days, 2 days later than last week; this week's soybean meal prices rebounded steadily, egg prices rebounded after the profit of layer chicken breeding was further repaired higher, this week's national average breeding profit was 0.70 yuan / kg, up 0.19 yuan / kg week-on-week; this week represented sales of 7876 tons, It increased by 1.6% tonn-o-q and 1.57% tonnes year-on-year. The number of laying hens in the country was about 1.158 billion as of the end of March, an increase of 0.43% month-on-month and 4.31% less than that of the same period last year, and the number of laying hens in the country was still low compared with previous years. 2. Market comments: Recently, the price of bulk agricultural products has continued to be strong, and the commodity market has fluctuated sharply, but the domestic egg futures price has been affected by the adjustment of funds and the adverse expectations of the epidemic on terminal consumption, and the performance is relatively weak. Egg spot prices are still at a high level, driven by feed costs, but there are signs of weaker consumption after egg prices soar, in addition, the epidemic factors have driven the terminal panic replenishment to an end, and the overall vegetable price has weakened to drag down egg prices. Fundamentally, the absolute volume of laying hens in the current production pen is still in the low position of the same period in history, but based on the data of the fourth quarter of 2021, we speculate that the layer chickens that started to produce in April this year will have a significant rebound year-on-year, in addition, the egg production rate will increase after the temperature recovery, and the egg supply is expected to continue to rise month-on-month. This week's farming profit rebounded month-on-month, most farmers' profits expanded, and the age of eliminated chickens rose this week, indicating that the enthusiasm for chicken hunting continued to decline. On the whole, both ends of the supply and demand of short-term egg fundamentals have rebounded month-on-month, and it is difficult to maintain seasonal increases under high spot prices, but the absolute valuation of egg futures prices is high, but the valuation of the relative feed sector is low. Operationally, in the near future, we need to be vigilant against the risk of falling back at a high spot in the case of consumption in the near future, especially the domestic epidemic situation shows a slow spread trend, and it is difficult to say that the terminal consumption before May Day may be optimistic, and the early single can leave the market at a high level. Or cautiously layout 09 short orders at the high. 【Trading Strategy】 In the early stage, more than one single high exit, buy near and sell long arbitrage hold. 【Risk point】 Soybean meal corn price; the epidemic has led to less than expected consumption in the later period.

This article originates from Founder Medium Term Futures