Today, when I read the seventh chapter of "China's Food Security Strategy and Decision-making", I was deeply touched when I read the words pointed out at the beginning of the article. I was wondering why the exports of corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice were all in the hands of these countries, especially wheat in the hands of European and American countries."
I'll start with this passage from the book: "Over the past 60 years, the world's food trade has grown dramatically overall. Grain exporters are relatively concentrated in a small number of countries, and the United States, Brazil and Argentina control the export of major grains. Corn and soybean trade account for more than 80% of the total grain trade, corn exports are concentrated in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries, soybean exports are concentrated in Brazil, the United States, Argentina and other countries, wheat exports are concentrated in Russia, the United States, Canada and other countries, rice exports are concentrated in India, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries. Wheat, rice, maize and other varieties of importing countries are relatively scattered. The trade volume of rice and wheat accounts for about 5% to 20% of the total grain trade, and the trade volume of soybeans accounts for more than 40% of the total grain trade. After 2000, the main importing countries have undergone significant changes, and soybean imports are mainly concentrated in China. We predict that in the next 20 years, world food trade may grow to 700 million to 900 million tons, and the proportion of wheat, corn and rice trade is expected to continue to rise. ”
To be honest, after reading these contents, I am quite worried about the EXPORT CONTROL OF THE UNITED STATES IN WHEAT, CORN, AND SOYBEANS, which is understandable, after all, Sino-US relations are now at a crossroads, and how to go can make different changes to the security of the world. Of course, I myself am not a politician or a commentator, but just from the position of an ordinary person to consider the problem, the United States controls the export control of corn, soybeans, wheat, and although our country ranks first in the world in grain production, due to the large population, the economic development is so fast and so good, in order to meet the domestic people's demand for indirect consumption of grain, tens of thousands of corn, wheat, soybeans are imported from abroad every year. According to the investigation, the total grain import volume of the mainland will reach 160 million tons in 2021, and the total import volume from the United States, Brazil and Ukraine alone will exceed 130 million tons, accounting for 81%. The United States has once again become the first source of imports of major grain and oil varieties on the mainland.
So, I wondered, when the United States suddenly and when it stopped exporting these grains to our country, what would happen to the people of the mainland for three meals a day! This may be a bit of a concern, but I think so, I don't know if people will think so.
We in China have always had the saying "good relations", and without violating interests, ordinary people pay more attention to good relations with family, friends, colleagues, and neighbors in their daily lives, and help each other. I think that the relationship between countries is also inseparable from this method of getting along. And our country, both then and now, has developed diplomatic relations with other countries in this way of getting along. But for historical reasons, I don't feel very well about the United States, Japan, Vietnam, India, even though the United States and Japan are richer than our countries. I think anyone who is slightly patriotic will feel that way.
Especially when I saw that Vietnam was still a controlling country in rice exports, I was quite depressed. What impressed me most was that when I was a child, when watching the Vietnamese self-defense counterattack movie, I once saw a clip, when the People's Liberation Army broke through the Vietnamese position, the sandbag used by the Vietnamese army for defense was punched out of the hole by bullets, and all that flowed out was rice, but the bag was printed with "aid to Vietnam", which was purely a white-eyed wolf. This fragment has made countless Chinese people full of anger. Fortunately, in the so far-reaching Sino-Vietnamese relations, Vietnam's performance has still made the mainland feel the sincerity of its diplomatic relations.
Putting aside the history of the Sino-Vietnamese self-defense war, Vietnam's position in Southeast Asia is actually quite important, and now Vietnam's economy is developing very fast, and Vietnam is also a neighbor of the South China Sea. So the Western countries led by the United States have been co-opting Vietnam. Japan and the United States have also said they will provide strong assistance to Vietnam in terms of economic development, but Vietnam has shown support for China in its international diplomatic attitude. Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc publicly stated some time ago that Vietnam-China relations are unshakable and that Vietnam will never oppose China. Under the influence of the United States and Japan, Vietnam still chose China.
Since Vietnam's relations with the mainland are still relatively good, it is also a great joy to import the rice and other agricultural products we need from their countries.
After half a day of complaining, let's take a look at the grain production of these countries that control the four major grain exports, in addition to the countries mentioned in the book, I have joined several countries that are more powerful in grain exports, such as Ukraine, Australia, Indonesia and other countries. After reading it, we should be able to understand the reasons. (Note: The following content comes from the introduction of food production and output in various countries on the Internet, and I have found and sorted out some of them.) ）
U.S. Agriculture
United States: The Territory of the United States covers an area of more than 9.3 million square kilometers and has a population of 326.76 million. The plain area is more than 4 million, and the Arable Land in the United States is 1.669302 square kilometers, more than 2.3 billion mu. About 197 million hectares of agricultural land are highly mechanized, efficient and yielding. The total annual grain output is about 550 million tons, which can not only meet the consumption of 326 million people in the country, but also export to 150 million people in all countries in the world, Asia, Africa, Europe, South America, a large number of wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, cotton, meat and vegetables and fruits. It is the second largest country in the world in terms of grain production. The United States ranks first in the world in grain exports, with an annual export volume of about 1.5%. 500 million tons. It is also the world's largest producer of corn, producing 377.5 million metric tons and planting 96 million acres. It accounts for about 32% of the world's production. Corn production plays an important role in the U.S. economy.
Brazilian agriculture
Brazil: Brazil, one of the world's largest grain producing countries, has a total land area of more than 8.51 million square kilometers, a population of 210.86 million, a cultivated land area of 661,299 square kilometers, 0.68 billion hectares, and a grain output of 250 million tons per year. Located after China, the United States and India, Brazil is the world's fourth-largest producer of grains (including rice, barley, soybeans, corn and wheat), the world's second-largest soybean exporter, the third-largest corn producer, and the world's top five corn exporters. The annual production of corn is 104 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the world's total production. In 2019, Brazil exported 123 million tons of grain, accounting for 19% of the world's total, and is the world's second largest food exporter in terms of export volume. Over the past 20 years, Brazil's cumulative exports totaled 1.1 billion tons, accounting for 12.6% of the world's total.
Argentine agriculture
Argentina: Argentina has a land area of 2,080,400 square kilometers, a population of more than 44.86 million, arable land area of 284,342 square kilometers, 0.27 billion hectares, and a total grain output of 0.79 billion tons. The Argentine Hapas grassland is rich in precipitation, flat terrain, numerous rivers, sparsely populated grasslands, pleasant climate, convenient transportation, rich in cattle, sheep, horses, deer and other animals, and developed animal husbandry.
Argentina is the world's largest exporter of processed soy products, the world's largest exporter of soybean meal, soybean oil, sunflower oil and peanut oil, and the third largest exporter of soybeans. According to shipping agency NABSA, Argentina exports an average of 1.5 million tonnes of soybean meal and 300,000 tonnes of soybean oil per month in 2021. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Argentina to account for 41 percent of global soybean meal exports and 48 percent of soybean oil exports in 2021-2022. In Southeast Asia, consumers in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are heavily dependent on Argentine soybeans. It is no exaggeration to say that the slightest movement of Argentina in soybean exports will have an impact on consumers in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
Russian agriculture
Russia: Russia is also the world's largest grain producer, with a total area of more than 17.07 million square kilometers and a population of 143.96 million, almost twice the area of the United States and Canada combined, and the area of China. The area of arable land in Russia is 1,231,294 square kilometers. There are 126 million hectares, and the production of grain and cereals is 131 million tons per year. In recent years, Russia attaches great importance to the modernization of agricultural machinery, wheat is 40 million tons to 50 million tons per year, and more than 30 million tons are exported every year, mainly exported to the Middle East, Egypt, Syria, and South Africa, West Brotherhood, North Korea and other countries. Surpassed the United States and Canada to become the world's largest wheat exporter.
Canada: Canada is also a major producer and exporter of grain, with an area of 9.98 million square kilometers, a population of 36.95 million, arable land area of 474,681 square kilometers, 0.68 billion hectares, and a total grain output of 0.56 billion tons. Canada is rich in products and sparsely populated. Wheat produces 20 per cent of the world's wheat, oats, barley, maize, sugar beet seeds, flax, potatoes, pig farming, cattle and sheep, poultry, dairy products, forestry and fisheries.
Ukrainian agriculture
Ukraine: Ukraine is the world's largest producer and exporter of food. Ukraine covers an area of 603,700 square kilometers, has a population of 44 million, has an arable land area of 333,847 square kilometers, 0.42 billion hectares, accounting for almost more than 50% of the entire land area, and has a total grain output of 0.60 billion tons, more than half of which is exported abroad, and is the world's third largest grain exporter. The black soil is a natural advantage of Ukrainian food production. Ukraine's average production is 264 tons/km, surpassing India's 202 tons, Russia's 105 tons and Brazil's 182 tons among the world's top 5 food-producing countries. Ukraine's average grain production is 2.5 times that of its next-door neighbor, Russia. The difference with the average land of the United States is not large, mainly because Ukraine's latitude is higher than that of the United States.
Maize, wheat and barley are the main cereals exported from Ukraine. Based on the global average of THE USDA's corn production and export share from 2017 to 2021, Ukraine is the world's fourth largest corn producer after the United States, Brazil and Argentina, accounting for more than 15% of the world's corn exports.
Indian agriculture
India: India has a total area of 2.97 million square kilometers, a population of 1.354 billion, an agricultural arable land area of 1,505,058 square kilometers, 170 million hectares, and an annual grain production of more than 314 million tons. Mainly located in the northern Ganges Plain, there are mainly wheat in the upper reaches of the Ganges, rice and sugar cane in the lower reaches, tea leaves and jute in the northeast. In the south, the Deccan Plateau has more precipitation and low terrain, and cotton, peanuts and vegetables are grown. India's cattle industry is the largest in the world in terms of cattle production, and beef production is very large. India's rice exports are the first in the world, but with a large population, coupled with drought and floods, sometimes it is difficult for food consumption to meet domestic production, and some grain must be imported, so India is not entirely a big rice producer, and vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar are not the same as rice export countries Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar.
Vietnamese agriculture
Vietnam: With an area of 330,000 square kilometers and a population of 97 million, Vietnam has two alluvial plains – the Red River Delta Plain and the Mekong Delta Plain. The Red River Delta Plain is a plain formed by the alluvial formation of the Red River and its affiliated rivers, and the Mekong Delta Plain is formed by the impact of the Mekong River. The terrain of these two plains is flat and the land is fertile. These two plains provide Vietnam with abundant land resources. Vietnam is located in a tropical monsoon climate, with high temperature and rain in summer, hot rain and hot at the same time, and winter weather is not cold. Climatically, it provides combined light-heat growth conditions for Vietnamese rice, and Vietnam's crops are mainly rice. Vietnam's crops are ripe three times a year.
Vietnam's grain can not only meet its own living needs, but also export 8 million tons of grain every year. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam's grain export volume is second only to Thailand's grain reserves, and Vietnam has achieved grain exports by taking advantage of superior natural conditions and its abundant human resources.
Thailand: Thailand has a land area of 513,000 square kilometers and a population of 69 million. Asia is the only net exporter of food and one of the world's top five agricultural exporters. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice and natural rubber. The national arable land area is about 140 million mu (1 rai = 1600 square meters), accounting for 41% of the national land area. Thailand is a major producer of rice. Due to the wide planting area and high global sales, Thailand has also been named the "Asian Rice Bowl". According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the area planted with rice in Thailand has been maintained at about 10 million hectares in the past decade, with total output hovering around 30 million tons and exports ranging from 6 to 11 million tons.
Indonesian agriculture
Indonesia: Indonesia covers an area of 1,904,965 square kilometers, has a population of 266.79 million, arable land area of 330,037 square kilometers, arable land area of 0.35 billion hectares, and a total grain output of 171 million tons. Indonesia is located in the tropics, with more than 10,000 large and small islands, and rice cultivation is extensive. Indonesia's real strength is palm oil and edible vegetable oil production, and it is the world's largest palm oil producer and edible vegetable oil exporter.
If the palm oil and edible vegetable oil exported in India are slightly turbulent, the chain reaction caused by it will lead to fluctuations in the global edible oil market. Just as Indonesia abruptly announced a ban on edible oil exports on April 22, adding more uncertainty to the already strained global supply of vegetable oil.
Australia: With a territory of 7.692 million square kilometers and a population of 25.69 million (as of September 2020), Australia is the most economically developed country in the southern hemisphere and the world's 12th largest economy, the world's largest export volume of minerals, known as the "country sitting on a minecart", and is also the country with the largest number of sheep and wool exports in the world, also known as the "country riding on the back of sheep", the world's fourth largest exporter of agricultural products. Australia's agriculture and animal husbandry industry is developed, with an annual output of more than 28 million tons of wheat and barley, and exports of more than 18.6 million tons. Food exports account for 2.2 per cent of the world total.
Wheat is Australia's most important food crop. Australian wheat grains are clean and complete, with low water content, no pesticide residues, and better quality. The Australian agricultural sector also divides special wheat planting areas according to the needs of different countries, realizing "special harvest and special storage". For example, Italian consumers have a preference for eating macaroni, and Australia has planted special durum wheat accordingly; Japan is popular for pastries and desserts, and Australian wheat producers have grown glutinous wheat; European and American countries have a tradition of eating bread, and Australian farms have also invested in it and grow high-quality bread wheat.
By the way, Australian wheat is produced in New Year's Eve, generally sown in May to July, harvested successively from October to January of the following year, and the breeding period is 5 to 6 months. When the northern hemisphere enters the winter, the export of Australian wheat enters the peak period, when Russia, the United States and other wheat export countries are in the production off-season, so Australian wheat has a strong seasonal advantage.
I will write here for the time being today, in fact, there are many food exporting countries, such as Romania, France, Hungary, Serbia, South Africa, Bulgaria, Paraguay, Poland, Croatia, Myanmar, Canada, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Slovakia and other countries can rank in the top 20 among grain exporting countries.
The last thing I want to say is that we, China, are put last because our great country is too strong in terms of food.
China is the world's largest grain producing country and the third grain exporter, but it is also the first importer of grain In recent years, China has produced more than 500 million tons of grain per year. China feeds 22 percent of the world's population with less than 10 percent of the world's arable land.
China is the world's largest grain producing country and the third grain exporter, but it is also the first importer of grain In recent years, China has produced more than 500 million tons of grain per year. China feeds 22 percent of the world's population with less than 10 percent of the world's arable land.
According to data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, China's total grain output in 2021 will be 682.85 million tons, ranking first in the world; The Total Grain Production of the United States is 571.09 million tons, ranking second in the world; India's total grain production was 314.71 million tons, ranking third.
Regardless of the impact of grain imports and exports, the average grain output of Chinese is about 484 kilograms, that is, 968 kilograms, an average of 2.65 kilograms per person per day, which can meet the needs. Among the top 10 countries in terms of total food production, the highest per capita grain production is Argentina at 1775 kg and the lowest is India at 232 kg.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the world's largest grain exporter in 2021 is the United States, with a total value of about 149 billion yuan of grain, accounting for 10% of the world's grain exports. The second largest food exporter is Brazil, which exported $79 billion worth of production in 2021, or 5.3 percent. The third largest grain in the world in 2021
The food exporter is China, which exports a total of about $63 billion in grain, mainly wheat, rice, sorghum, see this
You may be surprised by the data?
Then looking back, China is the world's third largest grain exporter and the world's largest grain importer.
In 2021, the world's largest grain importer is China, a total of about 164.53 million tons of grain imported, the data show that the mainland imports the most soybeans and soy products and oilseeds, soybeans and oilseeds are our two most dependent on foreign countries, but also the mainland's weakness. The average import dependence of soybeans in the past 5 years has been 87.88% (which is also the reason for the concerns I mentioned in the article). In the past 5 years, the average import dependence of palm oil has reached 99.97%, and the average import dependence of rapeseed oil is 14.45%.
As the saying goes: "The people take food as the sky" and "leisurely and important things, and eating is great", food plays a vital role in a country and a people. Especially my ordinary people, now that we have entered the era of abundant food and clothing, many people do not have to worry about food and clothing, and it seems that not so many people care about and attach importance to food security and crisis issues, but as the food needed by daily people, it still has great strategic significance today.
Only by understanding the export and import situation of the world's grain countries can we recognize the shortcomings of our country in food security and why our country imports so many soybeans and wheat every year. It should be known that the mainland's staple grain rice is self-sufficient, but soybeans and wheat are too dependent on imports and have reached the point where they cannot meet demand. Agricultural products such as corn and soybeans are fodder for poultry and pork. The chicken, duck, poultry and pork that our people eat every day are inseparable from feed. If agricultural and sideline products such as corn and soybeans are dependent on imports, domestic prices will soar. Therefore, the mainland is currently a staple grain without any problems, and agricultural and sideline products are overly dependent on imports, there are many problems, and there are hidden dangers.
Therefore, only by fully enhancing and understanding the strategic significance of grain and enabling our country and nation to move steadily and far can we maintain social prosperity, stability, and long-term peace and stability, and can we consolidate the foundation of the country.