Author / Baked buns under the stars
Edit / Starry Sky of Spinach
Typography / Tangerine peel under the stars
The number of new outbreaks in Shanghai exceeding 20,000 per day is heart-wrenching, and the impact on Shanghai's economy can be imagined.
In addition to dynamic zeroing, it is also necessary to ensure the stability of the industrial chain supply chain. After more than half a month of shutdown, the top management finally met to deploy important measures to reassure people and enterprises from all walks of life.
Ensuring the smooth flow of goods and promoting the stability of the industrial chain supply chain
When you have instructions, you have to act. Among them, the automotive industry is particularly prominent. Starting from the 18th of this month, SAIC Motor officially launched the stress test of resuming work and production, and at the same time led some core component factories into stress testing. In addition, Tesla, the electric car giant, is also making full preparations for the resumption of work and production. However, even if production is resumed, it is expected to be closed production operation management.
The resumption of the epidemic must be grasped with both hands, and both hands must be hard.
Everything is ready, the stock market comes first. The good news of the resumption of production by automakers has come, and the A-share auto sector has been red across the board. The auto parts index rose 4.4% in one day, and related stocks such as Zhongjie Seiko (301072), Kabeiyi (300863), and Suao Sensing (300507) rose or rose by more than 10%. And I believe that with the orderly advancement of the resumption of work and production, this round of rise can never be "one day red".
Auto Parts Segment (Snowball)
The track for auto parts is big and wide. Today we will mainly focus on the theme of electrification, to talk about the track that the author is optimistic about - the drive motor.
First, the king of the motor is none other than him
The purchase subsidy for new energy vehicles will be terminated at the end of this year, but the penetration of new energy vehicles seems to have become the trend of the times. As of the end of March this year, the domestic new energy passenger car market penetration rate has approached 30%, and has exceeded the original target of about 20% for all new energy vehicle models in 2025.
You say, what reason is there not to believe in the future of electrification?
In the field of electrification, the author touched it and found that as one of the "three electricities" (batteries, electronic controls, and motors) of new energy vehicles, driving motors is a good track!
Upstream raw material supply; midstream stator and rotor parts production; downstream assembly players, all three perform their duties.
Drive Motor Industry Chain (Precision Electric Prospectus)
Give a brief introduction to unfamiliar friends about the drive motor. The motor is mainly a device that converts the electrical energy in the battery into mechanical energy, and is one of the indispensable components. To disassemble the motor, the most expensive is the stator (usually a silicon steel sheet with a copper coil, fixed).
Main cost components of motors (Motor Technology)
Three hundred and sixty lines, lines out of the yuan. The classification that is expected to become a leader in drive motors is permanent magnet synchronous motors (the proportion of use in the mainland has exceeded 90%). In recent years, even Tesla, which has always believed in the technical path of AC asynchronous motors, has also begun to use permanent magnet synchronous motors in the newly launched Model 3 models.
Believe it or not, you go and see the very good rare earth materials (as one of the main materials of permanent magnet synchronous motors), which play an important role. Of course, back to the technology itself, such motors have become the champions of the motor with the "three highs" (high efficiency, high power density, and high reliability). However, if the optical technology, the United States currently has a leading advantage in the new energy vehicle electric drive industry, followed by Japan and Germany. Our domestic players want to surpass, and the road is long and long.
Second, what is the pattern? Who is better financially
The more competitive the players on the track, the more attention they can attract. How are the players doing on the motor track?
From the distribution of the cake, last year's dominant players were BYD and Tesla, the market share of both has been close to 30%, and this trend has continued to rise in recent years, and the Matthew effect (strong Hengqiang) has gradually emerged. According to the author's calculations, among the top ten players in the market share, 4 are automakers, 6 are professional third parties, and the share of OEMs and third parties is basically 55.
Domestic motor market share
According to the prediction of professional institutions (Ni-Edémo) in the future, with the establishment of a specialized division of labor, after three years, the trend of external mining of drive motors by OEMs will be enhanced, which is a golden opportunity to enter the suppliers of OEMs for third-party players. For example, most of the new car-making forces do just that.
Motor players and OEMs are deeply bound
No matter how good the development prospects of the track, we cannot live on the "market dream rate", and eventually we must return to financial performance. Since the third-party motor is expected to counterattack strongly, we will focus more on this segment. From the perspective of revenue, Dayang Electric (002249) has the largest revenue scale in the field of new energy vehicle powertrain systems, and juyi technology (688162) has the fastest growth rate (mainly because of low base). From the perspective of whether the cake is sweet (gross profit margin), the gross profit margin of Dayang Electric is still ahead of other players.
Financial performance of third-party motor companies (left: revenue, right: revenue growth)
Is the market space for future motors worth looking forward to? The growth of the market size mainly depends on two factors: the growth of new energy vehicles and the penetration of dual motors.
The former author has already talked about it in the opening paragraph, and will not say more. And the latter, the current model, mainly equipped with a single motor version and dual motor two versions, dual drive motor is generally a high-end version of the model, the future with the electric vehicle in the consumer side of the recognition increased, the penetration rate of the dual motor is also expected to accelerate (last year's penetration rate is about 27%).
Therefore, according to the author's estimate, the market size of the motor will be expected to break through the mark of 40 billion yuan after three years.
III. Conclusion
The recent epidemic in Shanghai has made the author dream back to the Spring Festival two years ago, and home isolation has become the norm. However, the society will eventually operate normally, and the wave of resuming work and production has been blowing like a spring breeze in the past two days, injecting a warm current into the hearts of shareholders.
In particular, the OEMs that have announced the resumption of production on a large scale are carrying hundreds of upstream suppliers.
As one of the core components of automotive components, the drive motor has a good development logic and prospects. When more people's eyes are on batteries, the motor may be a truly underrated track!
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.