Who will stay with the Lakers next season? Westbrook Howard watched from the bench
The day after the 2021-22 season, Rob Pelinka swung the first knife to transform the team. In the early hours of this morning, the Lakers officially announced that they would sack their head coach Frank Vogel, and apparently, this is just the beginning of this doomed turbulent offseason.
A year ago, the Lakers brought in Russell Westbrook in a blockbuster deal, which later proved to be a failed investment. Now, how can the Lakers fix their mistakes and bring LeBron James and his team back into the ranks of championship contenders?
Vogel is gone, but what about Westbrook?
At the season farewell press conference in the early hours of this morning, a reporter asked Wei Shao whether he wanted to return to the Lakers next season. Wei Shao replied, "Yes, the current plan is like this, but it is not a foregone conclusion." ”
If Westbrook's words are serious, he may be the only one who thinks he will continue to play for the Lakers next season. In fact, compared to Vogel, Wei Shao is the person that the Lakers management most wants to "get rid of", but his situation is more complicated than that of the coach.
Pelinka personally traded Westbrook to the Lakers, and now he must also personally get rid of his bad $47 million contract next season (Westbrook has no reason to give up that player option), and if he can't, his own position will be in jeopardy. At present, in front of Pelinka, there are probably the following options:
First of all, the Lakers can restart negotiations with the Rockets, swap the contracts of Westbrook and Wall, and bring stylistic changes to the Lakers. The Lakers had held talks with the Rockets before the February deadline, and according to reports at the time, Christian Wood could also be involved in the deal. The advantage of this deal is that the Lakers may not have to pay too much for future assets, and only need a second-round pick or first-round swap (rather than a first-round pick for free) to satisfy each other's appetite. The downside is that there is still great uncertainty and the risk of failure is high.
The second option is to find a team with salary space , such as the Thunder , to help eat Westbrook's contract. The Thunder still have $31.65 million in salary space before June 30, and a deal similar to Westbrook's exchange for Favors will allow the Lakers to get more than $30 million in trading exceptions, or release the corresponding salary space. But to complete a deal like this, the Lakers will definitely have to pay at least one future first-round pick.
The Lakers have a third option: If they are willing to sacrifice the draft pick as a price for reinforcement, they can negotiate with some teams that rebuild the team, or that face long-term salary pressure in the future, and get back some quality role players while getting rid of Westbrook. From the fans' point of view, that's what they most want to happen.
The Athletic reporter Shams Charania revealed in the latest article that the Pacers may be a potential next home for Westbrook, and Malcolm Brogdon and Buddy Hield will be the main chips in exchange for Westbrook.
Brogdon and Hield are both in their current year, the former is steady, the latter is accurate, both are players who are theoretically very suitable for the Lakers, Brogdon's contract has another three years of 67.6 million, Hield's contract has another two years of 39.1 million, both of them are not in the Pacers' future plans.
In this deal, Wei Shao plays the role of an expired contract, tasked with freeing up salary space for the Pacers after a year, but at the same time, the other party will definitely need additional future assets as compensation. The main suspense now is whether a first-round pick will satisfy the Pacers' appetite. Judging by Pelinka's hesitant performance before the deadline, the probability of the deal being negotiated will not be too high.
Similar schemes include NBA celebrity Marc Stein last week who reported that Michael Jordan has always admired Westbrook and that the Hornets could become a watermaker. Stein mentioned that although the Hornets already have a future ace Player Lamelo Ball in the Number One position, they may take westerly's expiring contract for some salary flexibility.
With Gordon Hayward still on his two-year contract and only playing 49 games this season with injuries, Gordon Hayward is a major bargaining chip that the Hornets want to send away but the Lakers may not want to accept. But for the Lakers, they may have a chance to get a reliable instant combat force like Terry Rozier in the deal at the same time.
Rozier has performed well this season, but the four-year, $97 million contract extension only went into effect this summer. Considering that the Hornets face the heavy responsibility of renewing Miles Bridges this offseason, and the fact that the three goals are eligible to renew their contracts early next summer (the two of them are the future of the team), the necessary cuts are necessary. Compared with the Pacers' plan, trading with the Hornets is more risky, but with the current poor market conditions of Westbrook, the Lakers may also need to compensate the other side for a first-round pick.
If none of the above plans work, the Lakers have one last move left: buy out Wei Shao.
It's not so much a buyout as it is to say that layoffs are more appropriate. Because there have been reports that Wei Shao will not accept the buyout, not only because of financial losses, he also fears that this will damage his reputation. But if the Lakers decide to pay their full salary and let them go, then Major General West has no right to say no.
The Lakers could lay off Westbrook and split his remaining $47 million salary into a three-year "deferred payment," about $15.7 million a year. This will be the Lakers' last resort, and although it can relieve a little salary pressure for next season, it will block the future salary space. The lesson for Lore Deng is still in sight, he retired in 2019 but still occupied the Lakers' $5 million salary space last season.
All in all, Wei Shao's Lakers career has entered the countdown, but his negative impact on the Lakers may still exist in the next few years.
Can the Lakers reinforce through the free market?
The arrival of each year's offseason will bring new hope to NBA teams and fans, because they will have the opportunity to complete the transformation and strength upgrade of the lineup through the free market.
Backed by the Los Angeles market and with a long, illustrious historical tradition, the Lakers have always been the preferred destination for free agents. This summer, though, it's hard to get enough room to sign a big-name freelancer who can make a real impact.
At the end of the season, the Lakers' current roster will have multiple player contracts expiring, including Dwight Howard, Cameron Anthony, Avery Bradley, Wien Ellington, Kent Bazemore, Malik Munch, in addition, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reeves will face team options, and Westbrook and Kendrick Nunn are player options.
Theoretically, the Lakers could enter this year's offseason with just one three-man roster, James, Davis and Horton Tucker, provided Westbrook and Nunn voluntarily waive the player option. But in fact, this possibility is almost impossible, and the total salary of James, Davis, Westbrook, Tucker and Nunn will exceed $145 million next season!
The NBA has issued a notice to teams on April 1 that the forecast salary cap for next season is about 121 million, and the luxury tax line is $147 million. This means that the Lakers not only have no salary space to sign people, but even use the basic salary contract to fill the remaining lineup seats around these five people, and it is difficult to escape the punishment of luxury tax.
Of course, there is another possibility of reducing Westbrook's salary footprint by about $30 million by the way of the aforementioned deferred payment or transaction with the space team. Then there are only four lakers, Zhan, Mei, Tucker, and Nunn, the total salary is about 115 million, according to the "base salary placeholder" (the labor agreement stipulates that when calculating the salary space, the remaining lineup seats should be included in the total salary of the team at least according to the basic salary contract), and there will be no salary space to sign people directly. That's not even considering the space that the Lakers will take up in the trade exception they previously got away from Gasol Jr. and Rondo.
The free market in 2022 is not without big fish, but they are doomed to be out of touch with the Lakers, who can use the full middle class to supplement a role player who has the opportunity to enter the starting lineup. But given the reality, it's likely that this is just a tax on the team's mini-middle class, worth about $6.4 million.
The Lakers signed Nunn with a mini-middle class last summer, which was considered a good deal at the time, but the result was quite the opposite. Compared with a year ago, the Lakers' appeal has obviously been greatly reduced, so don't expect to "get big things done" by "spending a little money". This summer, the Lakers signed a free market contract, and most of it had to operate around the veteran's base salary to operate in a low-key manner.
The 37-year-old James, the data performance is still gorgeous, but it is difficult to balance the offensive and defensive ends, Davis's body, but also constantly lights up red lights, they are unlikely to be abandoned by the Lakers, but the team must find a way to find the right helper for them. It turns out that the so-called third big man with a false reputation may not be suitable for the Lakers, and the more realistic approach is to look for new forces that can defend and hit empty shots, even if it is an unknown rookie like Reeves.
The Lakers' more reliable approach to a real power upgrade is to complete a deal similar to the one described above with the Pacers or Hornets. Of course, the premise is that Pelinka has the courage and willingness to cooperate with the championship window that James is gradually closing in the last few years.
How should the Lakers' next coach be selected?
Vogel's dismissal has long been expected, and even from last offseason Pelinka to Wei Shao, and with a group of heavy offensive and light defensive base salary players to build a whole lineup around the Big Three, Vogel's end has been doomed.
Vogel is a good coach, but the thing he's best at is defense, and with the Lakers' roster (and injuries) this season, he simply doesn't have much room to play. If you want to find someone to pay for the Lakers' failed season, this person should not be Westbrook, nor should it be Vogel, but Shouldnka herself.
Bookmakers recently offered odds for the Next Manager of the Lakers, with the current chief assistant professor David Fitzdale in first place, with other top ten entries (in a list): Quinn Snyder, Doug Rivers, Knicks Nas, Mike Brown, Sam Cassel, Steve Clifford, Kenny Atkinson, Terry Stotts and Stan Van Gundy.
Later, the names of Phil Jackson and Old K were also mentioned, but like James, who was also "on the list", the possibility of them taking over the Lakers' coaching whip tended to zero.
Fitzdale is the Lakers' chief assistant coach and has a good personal relationship with James, so it is natural to appear on this list, but is his ability enough to re-enter the ranks of the Lakers? Very questionable. Because of this, recent rumors show that the Lakers want to find the next manager by digging the wall, and Snyder, Rivers and Nas, who rank second to fourth on the odds list, are currently doing well in their respective positions, but they have still become the key targets of the Lakers.
What kind of coach is right for the Lakers? It's a complicated question and hard to answer, because Vogel, who was fired by the Lakers today, just led them to an NBA championship two years ago.
In theory, a healthy Zhan Mei, paired with the right role players, has the opportunity to impact the championship, even if the level of the coach is relatively "mediocre". But James is two years older than the last time he won the championship, with continuous injuries to his thick eyebrows, and the Failure of the Lakers to attract reinforcements, Vogel has become the "culprit".
Next season, James's age will continue to grow, the health of the thick eyebrows is not guaranteed, under the premise that the personnel operation is unresolved, it can only be said that the Lakers need a smarter, more experienced, or more brilliant resume than Vogel to serve as their head coach. As for whether this person should be better at offense or defensive, it is actually difficult to determine.
Judging from the current trends of the Lakers (actively pursuing the current managers such as Nass and Snyder), at least in the matter of coaching, they have some determination, but the result is still difficult to say.
Coaching a team led by a superstar has never been easy, and the Head Coach of the Lakers has never been good. Because of James, because of Los Angeles, this team will still have the championship as its only goal next season, and unless there is a "godfather" figure who is willing to re-emerge and turn decay into magic, whoever eventually becomes their manager will face an incomparably difficult task.
Again, the Lakers decided to change the coach, but is their problem really with the coach?