From the perspective of the world economy in the first quarter of 2022 in the latest past, the uncertainty risk facing the world economy is still high, and as an inflation indicator in the global economic field, the situation is not optimistic, although the mainland core CPI index is currently in a stable state, but the changes in the world situation and other factors may lead to an increase in inflation in many countries.
The epidemic has led to a sharp rise in the CPI of the United States in the world's first economy
Through observation, it is found that the united states is still the first in the total world economy, and the economy of the United States is affected by the expansion of debt scale and the epidemic factors, and its economic risk factors are obvious.
If we look at the core U.S. CPI index, it is clear that this indicator has formed a region of hyperinflation. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a commonly used indicator to observe a country's inflation, and it is also an important observation data for central banks to set monetary policy.
It's clear that this figure recorded its biggest increase in 40 years in February this year, and the data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on March 10 showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% month-on-month and 7.9% year-on-year in February, the largest year-on-year increase since January 1982. The data shows that the US CPI in February has expanded significantly from January, highlighting that the US inflationary pressure has not yet shown signs of easing.
The study believes that the United States, as the first economic power, its US dollar is still the world's main settlement currency, if its domestic inflation continues to deteriorate, it has a price transmission effect, from the perspective of factor changes in 2022, the US inflation is still relatively severe.
Two major factors have an inflationary impact on the world
From the perspective of the global economy in 2022, or facing downward pressure on the economy, and although the CPI indicators of some countries are currently relatively stable, the two major factors that push up prices in the world are still very obvious, and the changes in these factors are very important for price and inflation pressures.
1. War factors
War factors often lead to soaring prices in the countries concerned, and if it is a large world food base, the impact may be more obvious. For example, the changes in the Russo-Ukrainian war are disturbing the "world granary", and observations have found that the Russian-Ukrainian region, known as the "world granary", is being disturbed by military conflicts, and global grain continues to sound the alarm.
According to the World Bank, Russia was the world's largest wheat exporter in 2018, and Ukraine was the fifth largest wheat exporter. Together, these two countries account for about a quarter of global wheat exports. In addition, Ukraine is also one of the world's largest exporters of corn and sunflower oil, and Russia is the second largest producer of sunflower seeds, accounting for 27% of global production. Together, the two countries account for 24% of global sunflower seed exports.
We have seen that after the outbreak of the war, the market's concerns about the supply of wheat have been triggered, and the price of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has risen significantly. In the past month, CBOT wheat futures prices have risen by about 32%; since this year, the highest increase in CBOT wheat futures prices has been close to 62%.
Therefore, the fluctuation of global food prices caused by war factors will have an impact on the CPI of the relevant countries, and if this war spreads or elongates, then the rise in food prices may trigger the CPI of the relevant countries to continue to rise. Moreover, the evolution of this kind of war has strong uncertainty.
2. Epidemic factors
We know that one factor in rising inflation in the United States is the worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic. In three years, the United States has become the country with the highest number of infections in the world. What an astonishing number we see in the U.S. that there are currently 81.98 million confirmed cases and 1.01 million deaths.
The study believes that the reason why inflation in the United States has soared, hitting a new high in 40 years, is directly related to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and the higher price of goods caused by the epidemic is very obvious.
The latest outbreak in the United States
If you look at it from a global perspective, the development of this virus still has strong uncertainty, and asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam have also begun to rise significantly. From time to time, there are cases of virus mutation and infection in European and American countries. These will have a greater impact on the prices of the country or region where they are located.
At present, the mainland's CPI index is relatively stable, which is based on the stability of the mainland society and the effective prevention and control of the epidemic, but at the same time, it also faces certain challenges.
Observations have found that at present, the new crown epidemic has appeared from time to time in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jilin and other places on the mainland, of which the epidemic situation in Shanghai has also risen more, and there has been a sharp rise in food prices in the early stage, and the evolution of the epidemic in some parts of the country is uncertain. A report released by the World Health Organization on March 30 said that a recombinant strain called XE previously discovered in the United Kingdom had reported and confirmed more than 600 gene sequences, and it was difficult to determine when its development would end. Therefore, the evolution of the epidemic and the degree of control are also direct to the impact on prices.
Overall, 2022 has passed a quarter, but from the factors affecting the evolution of inflation in various countries in the world are still more obvious, these factors are mainly concentrated in the two aspects of war and epidemic, and currency over-issuance or its trading system competition, exchange rate factors, etc. may have an inflationary impact on many countries around the world, looking forward to the whole year, the pace of inflation is difficult to stop!