【Quote Review】
Today's three major indexes went low with the peripheral market, and the turnover of the two cities was 922.974 billion, a decrease of 4.46% from the previous day.
On the plate, the internal differentiation of real estate is the mainstay, Nanshan Holdings, Nanjing Public Utilities, China Wuyi, Xinhualian, Blu-ray Development 10cm stop, Beijing Investment Development, Guangyu Group, Sunshine Shares, Guancheng Chase, etc. batch drop stop; capital flow back to building materials direction hedging, pipeline stocks partially stronger, National Unity Shares, Sanhe Pipe Pile 10cm stop, National Machinery General, Qinglong Pipe Industry, etc. follow; building materials cement plate Wulianyang, Ningbo Fuda, Bowen Technology, Hainan Ruize 10cm stop, Jinyuan shares, Tibet Tianlu, Sichuan Shuangma, Western construction and other changes; fertilizer direction potash fertilizer trend accelerated, Oriental Tower 10cm stop, Ya potassium international, salt lake shares, Sanfu shares and other gains in the forefront; phosphorus chemical trend, Chuanjinnuo rose more than 8%, Hubei Yihua, Xinyangfeng rose more than 4%; the direction of new crown Chinese medicine, Toling Pharmaceutical 10cm up and down, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Taiji Group, etc. followed; digital currency, real estate, data centers, hotel tourism and other sectors fell in the front.
Northbound funds had an inflow of 2.352 billion yuan as of the closing close, an inflow of 1.975 billion yuan into the Shanghai Stock Connect, and an inflow of 378 million yuan from the Shenzhen Stock Connect.
(Views are for reference only, do not constitute investment advice, and operate at your own risk)
【Trend main line】The brother who seeks "stability" looks over.
1. Port water transport
Due to the strong spread of the mutant strain Omilon, the number of new daily confirmed cases worldwide continues to hover at a high level.
As of the end of March 2022, the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 486 million.
Although the epidemic situation in some parts of the mainland showed signs of spread, the epidemic was generally under control, the container transportation market continued to perform well, and the market freight rate remained at a high level.
In March, the average china export container composite freight rate index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 3332.65 points, down 4.9% from the previous month's average; the average Shanghai export container composite index, which reflected the spot market, was 4586.60 points, down 6.7% from the previous month's average.
The direction of port water transport, short-term price index fluctuations, there is no decisive role, it only needs to maintain above the average level in 2021, maintain a sideways model, funds have enough reasons to do anti-pumping in the direction of port water transport. It is only necessary to maintain a tight balance, and the "epidemic" is the most direct and effective catalyst.
This logic is similar to what we said before about oil, as long as it can oscillate at a high level, the funds will repeatedly do low suction and high selling in the oil sector.
In 2021, China's container freight index averaged 2626.41 points, an increase of 166.80% over 2020. The industry's state of maintaining prosperity is not much of a problem at present, and as of April, it still maintains a high level:
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange.
Now it is still maintained above 2626.41 points, then this industry, the dip has a certain opportunity to do a rebound.
Not only that, the price of each route is actually up and down, not the general rise in the market, it can be seen that the capital is not to see the price must rise before doing, but a high shock:
On the first of April, there were frequent changes in individual stocks:
Shipping Sector:
The emotional leader is Shenghang shares.
The industry leader is COSCO Haikong.
Other symbols that follow the trend are:
COSCO Shipping: Mainly engaged in container manufacturing, part of shipping and terminal business.
COSCO Offshore: Mainly engaged in crude oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, accounting for 45% domestically and 55% internationally.
Merchants Steamship: Mainly engaged in oil tanker transportation, Ro-Ro ship transportation and bulk cargo transportation.
Straits Co., Ltd.: Mainly engaged in water transport business in the South China Sea and a small number of port services.
Therefore, when operating the above target, it is necessary to refer to the trend of the industry leader or the emotional leader.
Today we would like to add a core target that is fully adjusted to the direction of the port as a tracking alternative to the fundamental direction. And it can serve as a core weather vane in the direction of the port.
SIPG Group
Main:
Container segment revenue accounted for 43.47%
Port logistics segment revenue accounted for 30.25%
bright spot:
Container throughput A-share first, the largest container port in China. In 2021, the cargo throughput of the company's home port reached 539 million tons, and the container throughput reached 47.033 million TEUs, maintaining the world's first place for 12 consecutive years.
Not only that, but it also benefits participating banks:
As of the end of 2021, the company holds 3.887% of the shares of Postal Savings Bank and 8.323% of the bank of Shanghai. Benefiting from the good domestic macro-control and economic stability and high-quality development, the above two banks contributed investment income of 1.747 yuan / 2.762 billion yuan in 2021, a total of 4.509 billion yuan, a steady increase of 10.46% year-on-year.
The company's net profit for the whole year of 2021: 14.68 billion
Investment income of corporate banks in 2021: Postal Savings Bank (1.747 billion) + Bank of Shanghai (2.762 billion) = 4.509 billion.
Therefore, it is concluded that the bank's investment income is close to 30% of the annual net profit.
This year's steady growth direction is the focus of the government work report meeting, banks with the expansion of infrastructure, is expected to increase the scale of credit, so this year's benefit direction in the participating banks is likely to be higher than last year. The superimposed freight index remains high, and the probability of its logical strengthening is very large, but the current stock price does not have enough performance, so there is a certain opportunity to take the lead.
Plate mood leader: Chongqing Port.
Other front row follower targets:
Tangshan Port: mainly engaged in port loading and unloading, warehousing, transportation, commodity trade and other businesses.
Tianjin Port: mainly engaged in port loading and unloading, transportation business and various types of commodity trade business.
Nanjing Port: mainly engaged in container loading, chemical loading and unloading transportation business.
2. Building materials
On the side of building materials, we can see that the following effect of funds can be, especially the recent movement of some large market value targets, which means that the funds of large institutions have begun to pour into this direction.
On March 30, the climax of the real estate, the funds directly cut to the oriental rain rainbow in the direction of building materials, and the 100 billion large blocks rose and fell:
On April 6, the real estate sector accelerated again, and the low direction of infrastructure was diverted again, and China Construction directly pulled up the Dayang line:
Obviously, even if the high-level sector accelerates to the situation that funds dare not chase, it is also a low-level infrastructure that is cut first, not a track, which shows the high priority level of the "steady growth" direction.
In fact, you can't blame the track stocks for not giving strength recently, the market is so much money, big funds have chosen infrastructure, what can I do? Therefore, in terms of continuity, even if you do not do the core front row, the direction of choice is also the preferred infrastructure.
Building materials, short-term accumulation of a certain amount of funds, follow-up is definitely to relay the real estate, the probability of real estate trends is also very large, after all, it is the current mainstream core hot spots, but can and it to grab the direction of "traffic" has to be paid attention to.
Several core hunks, which can bring up the popularity of the plate, can pay attention to its potential for replenishment:
China Construction: Ranked first in the top 250 international contractors. Foreign contractors ranked 8th with an international turnover of 14.143 billion.
China Railway: Ranked second among the top 250 international contractors.
China Railway Construction: Ranked third in the top 250 international contractors.
PowerChina: Ranked fifth in the Top 250 International Contractors. Foreign contractors ranked 7th with an international turnover of 14.716 billion US dollars.
China Energy Construction: Ranked sixth in the top 250 international contractors.
In addition, the industry core of small segments also has the opportunity to supplement the real estate situation, and has recently changed frequently:
Subote: The first A-share of water reducer revenue, related revenue of 2.666 billion yuan in 2020.
Belongs to the theme tree: building materials - water reducer.
Baby Rabbit: The main business is flooring.
Belongs to the theme tree: building materials - flooring.
Recently, benefiting from the continuous development of infrastructure and the expected improvement of real estate, the valuation of the consumer building materials sector is expected to follow the repair. We can keep track of it appropriately. Compared with the high plate, the low-level replenishment potential of building materials has the opportunity to benchmark real estate, but it is expected to be delayed, logically, it is not that the house has not been set up, and the building materials have sold out, right? Therefore, the market for building materials will continue, not over.
【After-market Strategy】
It is more appropriate to balance the positions in the future, and the seesaw effect of the market at this stage is very obvious. The hedging category has fertilizers, coal and infrastructure lows, and the direction of attack includes real estate, epidemic line, meta-universe and other directions. And today, all fell into the adjustment, short-term follow-up script who got up first, no one can guess, the current infrastructure direction because the large market value can do the repair of the expectation is still there, mainly between the institutions to copy each other's operations, so the real estate side will also have funds to intimidate the industry fundamentals, such as Vanke, Gemdale Group, China Merchants Shekou these, and the high, short-term profit of the larger front row of targets, has not been cathartic, so it is more appropriate to avoid high and low, and then it is normal to adjust the meta-universe plate. After all, it is the plate that grabs the top spot on the first day of April, it will not die so quickly, in short, the most core direction, bargains, sub-positions.