Reporter Han Bing reported that after the Qatar World Cup draw on April 2, the major international media expressed regret that there was no traditional "death group", because this means that a considerable part of the group stage will become a routine chicken rib competition due to the disparity in strength, but for the Asian teams that hope to make a historic breakthrough, the draw for this cup is a complete draw, and the 4 Asian teams that have already qualified plus the host Qatar almost all fall into the "death group". Even if Australia can pass the play-offs, the same group of opponents are the defending champions France and the European powerhouse Denmark.
The last peak of Asian football was the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, where Japan reached the round of 16 for the first time and South Korea reached the top four, which is still the best result of Asian football in the World Cup. While the report card of that World Cup was controversial due to widespread and egregious referee misjudgments, the results of Asian teams are an immutable fact. In the four World Cups after 2002, Asian teams had a dismal record: in 2006, 3 of the 4 teams were at the bottom of the group, and only South Korea defeated the Rookie Togo of the World Cup to win the only win; in 2010, Japan and South Korea reached the round of 16, but they were also defeated by South American teams in the quarterfinals; the worst in 2014, all four teams were at the bottom of the group and did not taste 1 win; 2018 was the best performance of Asian football after 2002, although only Japan reached the round of 16. However, the five Asian teams won a total of four wins in the group stage.
At present, the Asian region has 5 teams in the Asian region, Qatar and Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the winner of the play-off match between the United Arab Emirates and Australia will play against Peru, and the final winner will be in Group D. Optimistically, there may be 6 teams in the Asian region, which will set a record if it can be reached.
Can Asian teams make another historic breakthrough in the "Home World Cup" after 20 years? From the perspective of the group situation, it is not optimistic: the host Qatar has been grinding a sword for ten years, hoping to make a breakthrough, they hope to follow the Saudi team in the 1994 World Cup, recreate the miracle of the West Asian team entering the knockout round, but the lottery group gives the host the great pressure, encountering one of the strongest teams in the second gear, the Netherlands, the ST Africa Cup champion Senegal, the probability of qualifying plummets; saudi arabia, which performed well in the qualifiers, will encounter the two top teams in the Americas, Argentina and Mexico, and the overall strength gap is obvious; in addition, Japan is in the same group as Spain and Germany, and South Korea is in the same group as Portugal, Uruguay and African powerhouse Ghana.
After the qatar World Cup draw, the odds of predicting the trend of each team have also been released, and the odds of each team winning the first place in the group are estimated by the outside world to see the probability of qualifying, among the 5 Asian teams that have qualified, south Korea, which has Son Heung-min, has the highest data (12), but portugal (1.53) and Uruguay (3.75) in the same group have too much of a lead. Japan is also favored (15), ranked 3rd in the group, ahead of the same group of Costa Rica and New Zealand play-off winners (34), although the other two opponents in the same group, Spain (1.83) and Germany (2.10), are too big to be hopeful. The other 3 Asian teams have all bottomed the group, including the host Qatar, which shows that the outside world is pessimistic enough about the signing of Asian teams this time. Australia (and the United Arab Emirates first) and Peru are ranked 3rd in the play-off winner odds (11), but it is clear that Peru, which finishes 5th in South America, is better off to beat Australia.
Only in terms of the strength and status of the group opponents, the host Qatar and the Iranian team, whose style is more suitable for playing against European and American teams, have greater hopes. Qatar has a good time and place, and does not want to be the second host team after South Africa to fail to qualify from the group stage. Among their opponents in the same group, the Netherlands (1.5) and Senegal (3.75) are clearly favored, and Ecuador's qualifying odds are also significantly higher than those of the hosts (21). Qatar in preparation for the World Cup in recent years with European teams, but also participated in the North American Gold Cup and the World Cup European Qualifiers, although not counting points, but after all, has a relatively rich practical experience, Qatar hopes that this World Cup will become a harvest year for the elite football schools that have been painstakingly operated for many years.
As for Iran, although it is in the same group as England (1.25), which is considered the "strongest in 1966", and the winners of the United States (7) and the European play-off teams (the winners of Ukraine and Scotland vs Wales, currently 7.5), in fact, the strength of the play-off teams in the United States and Europe is not counted in addition to England. Although Qatar and Iran are at the bottom of the group (21), they can actually seize the opportunity of the closeness of strength between the teams in the group and the muddy waters. The only problem for the Iranian team is that in recent years, it has rarely played against European and American teams, and since the end of the 2018 World Cup, it has only played against the third-rate Bosnia and Herzegovina teams in Europe, and the actual combat experience is not as good as qatar and Japan and South Korea, and for well-known reasons, the Iranian team may suffer losses in refereeing.
The particularity of this World Cup may also affect the performance of Asian teams. The European and American leagues have just entered less than 1/3 of the schedule, and immediately switched to playing the World Cup, which needs to be familiar with the environment of West Asia, relatively speaking, Asian teams such as iran, which have been using the Uae and Qatar as temporary home games for many years, at least have the upper hand in the familiarity of the climate and the playing environment. The hosts' fans will give Qatar a good enough home atmosphere, and it depends on the team's luck when they are on the field. All in all, after 20 years of the Asian World Cup, Asian teams are trying to bring new glory to Asian football, unfortunately, there is still no participation of Chinese football.