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Friends who want to buy /change cars today must be very anxious in their hearts: on the one hand, the fierce rise in oil prices is enough to dissuade many potential car owners; on the other hand, electric vehicles are often tens of thousands of increases, and insurance and maintenance costs are also high.
According to the latest domestic oil price adjustment window, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 750 yuan and 720 yuan per ton respectively. After the price increase, the domestic No. 95 gasoline has basically entered the 9 yuan era. Some netizens even apologized to the owner of the new energy vehicle, saying: "Before I was narrow-minded, now it is too late to get on the car." ”
The reason why it is too late is that it is not willing. Tesla rose three times a week and was jokingly called a "wealth management product", and other brands followed suit. There are many reasons: one is the decline of subsidies for new energy models; the other is the multiple impacts of the chip shortage superimposed on the epidemic, war and earthquake in Japan, making the cost of raw materials high. In addition, rising premiums and maintenance costs have also had a significant impact on the market.
There are indications that in the third year of the epidemic, the automotive market may experience a more difficult situation than in the previous two years.
The new energy vehicle market is booming
In the past week, Tesla, BYD, Nezha Automobile, Zero-run Cars, Xiaopeng Motors, and Geometric Motors have announced the price increase of their models. According to CCTV financial reports, since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases. It is worth noting that this is already the second round of price increases after the collective price increase of new energy models in January.
If the last price increase was more affected by the decline of subsidies, the reason for the price increase this time is actually the fluctuation of upstream raw material prices. According to the ideal car CEO's Weibo post on the 19th, this price increase has not yet reached the end.
Li wanted to say, "At present, brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase of batteries in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately." The increase in battery costs in the second quarter was very outrageous. If there is no price increase, most of them have not yet been negotiated, and the price will generally increase immediately after waiting for the negotiation. "The implication is that this wave of price increases, the ideal probability is also to follow up."
At present, the price increase of the models that have been announced is also uneven. BYD, Xiaopeng and Nezha Automobile have all experienced two waves of price increases in January and March, but the price increase is not large, provided that the reference object is Tesla. The title #Tesla tripled price increases in 8 days was widely circulated in car circles.
But in fact, not every price increase is for the same model. On March 10, Tesla announced that the three models of Model 3 all-wheel drive high-performance version, Model Y all-wheel drive version, and Model Y all-wheel drive high-performance version increased by 10,000 yuan; and on March 15, the official price increase model was Model 3 rear-wheel drive, Model 3 all-wheel drive high-performance version, Model Y all-wheel drive version, Model Y all-wheel drive high-performance version. The first two models increased their prices by 18,000, the latter by 20,000, and the model that increased in price on March 18 was the model Y rear-wheel drive version that had not been mentioned in the previous two times.
On the whole, the largest price increase in the Tesla price increase storm was 28,000 yuan, for the Model 3 all-wheel drive high-performance version and Model Y all-wheel drive version, the price after the price increase was 367,900 yuan and 375,900 yuan, respectively.
Although Tesla's "willfulness" makes people speechless, from the perspective of sales, this increase is still within the acceptance range of some potential car owners.
Relatively speaking, the zero-run car's move to increase the price of the zero-run C11 model ranged by 20,000-30,000 is more difficult to understand. After all, the zero-run C11 has been known as the price butcher of the new energy vehicle market before, and after this price adjustment, the price after the comprehensive subsidy is 179,800 to 229,800 yuan, of which the price of two models has exceeded 200,000, which is also the highest increase in the current price increase.
It is undeniable that the rise in the price of upstream raw materials has brought great pressure on the cost of models, and the price increase is also a last resort, but for models with a price of less than 200,000, the increase of 30,000 is expected to have a great impact on the subsequent market performance.
Also questioned for the excessive increase is WM Motors. A few days ago, WM Motors announced that it will adjust the models on sale, and the price will be raised by 7,000 to 26,000 yuan after comprehensive subsidies. In fact, as early as March 1, WM Motor adjusted the price of some models, with an increase of 3,000 yuan and 4,000 yuan.
A WM employee, who did not want to be named, said that the price increase was a helpless move. Last year, with the intensification of the "chip shortage", some parts suppliers need to prepay, which has caused a very large financial pressure on enterprises, in this case, if the price is not raised, enterprises may face a dilemma of survival.
In contrast, Lantu Automobile, which is backed by central enterprises, is much calmer, and in response to whether to increase prices recently, Lu Fang, CEO of Lantu Automobile, said: "The price increase that does not bring value to users is meaningless and unreasonable. Lantu Automobile's official Weibo also said: "Thank you for your concern, Lantu has not yet increased the price, entangled." ”
The reason for the entanglement is also obvious, the price increase subsidizes the cost, but it will definitely lose some sales; although the price increase will face a certain cost pressure, it can harvest a wave of traffic and sales. Which is lighter or heavier is worth weighing.
Of course, in this wave of price increases, there are also brands that have not moved. FAW-Volkswagen previously announced that the ID.CROZZ family promised to insure the price; and Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Weilai Automobile, also responded: "Weilai currently has no intention of increasing prices."
If the former does not increase the price of the bottom from the traditional large factory supply chain advantages; then, the latter does not increase the price is also to consider the price stability of the protection of user interests, of course, the pricing of Weilai auto products themselves, but also enough to resist the cost fluctuations brought about by the rise in raw materials.
No matter what the consideration, being able to promise to insure users in such a big environment can highlight the strength of the enterprise and the responsibility of the enterprise.
With lots of obstacles, is 5.5 million sales still expected to be achieved?
At the beginning of the year, the association will increase the sales of new energy passenger vehicles from 4.8 million to 5.5 million in 2022, which is based on the beautiful vision of the production and sales of new energy models. However, judging from the current market environment, achieving this goal is much more obstacle than expected.
Upstream supply chain pressures may intensify. As we all know, soon after the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic, chip shortage has become a common issue faced by global car companies. Previously, it was reported that the chip problem is expected to ease in the third quarter, but due to the impact of the earthquake in Japan and the epidemic at home and abroad, the breaking time may be postponed again.
The rise in the price of battery raw materials has made the industry worse. In fact, from the end of 2020, the price of lithium carbonate, one of the raw materials of power batteries, has risen all the way, from 50,000 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 500,000 yuan / ton. At the same time, the prices of raw materials for new energy vehicles lithium, nickel (ternary cathode) and aluminum (structural parts and components) have also increased by more than 60%.
The rise in raw materials and the increase in the price of models will finally be directly reflected in the terminal sales. It is worth noting that insiders of new forces enterprises have revealed that due to the difficult supply of upstream parts, now parts are not only expensive, but also require payment first and then take goods, which brings greater pressure to new power brands that are not very well funded. If the epidemic continues, the liquidity of some small brands will not be able to keep up with the scheduling, and it will be difficult to survive.
Earlier, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, also said, "The price increase in the upstream is bound to affect the profitability of new energy vehicle companies, and it is expected that the days of new energy vehicle companies will be more difficult this year." ”
But for the sales target of 5.5 million, Cui Dongshu is still optimistic. He said, "The rise in raw material prices is the impact of short-term resource mismatch, which is unsustainable and will improve in the second half of this year." With the upgrading of technology and the huge investment of capital, the shortage of lithium batteries in the world will be gradually resolved."
Judging from the sales performance of the first two months, the heat of the market terminal for new energy models is indeed still unabated. According to the sales data of the Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272,000 units in February, an increase of 180.5% year-on-year. From January to February this year, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 624,000 units, up 153.2% year-on-year.
Based on the annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 of 3.5 million, it is necessary to exceed 5.5 million sales in 2022, which means that at least 157.7% of the target will be increased. Without subsidies falling, rising raw material prices, and the supply of automotive chips that have not yet been fully alleviated, this goal is actually easy to achieve, but now it seems foggy.
epilogue
From the perspective of consumption, affected by the domestic epidemic, there have been cities that have stopped work and stopped production, home isolation, home office, and the wave of layoffs under the epidemic, all of which affect the enthusiasm of mass consumption to a certain extent.
In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic and the supply of raw materials, the delivery time of many models is generally more than one month, and the delivery time of popular models is even as long as half a year. Due to multiple reasons such as the long delivery cycle and the rise in insurance prices, it is still unknown whether this year's new energy vehicle market can be peaceful.
And these problems, the fuel vehicle market also exists. In the post-epidemic era, how to complete the sales flag set at the beginning of the year is a common problem for the whole industry.