"Military Sub-Plane" by Ivan the Great
Today, March 18, 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has begun for 22 days.
Yesterday, there was not much fighting in Mariupol, and the Donbas militia evacuated the inhabitants of the west of Mariupol for a day after establishing a foothold in the west of the city and expanding about a kilometer into the city. About 30,000 peaceful residents allegedly left Mariupol throughout the day, most of them going to Berdyansk, which was already under Russian control, or directly into Russia's Rostov Oblast for temporary stays. At the same time, Russian TV reporters interviewing on the front line also found that there were still many elderly people with limited mobility in the city, unable to leave the city. At present, the Donetsk militia and the Russian army are assisting in the distribution of supplies for these elderly people.
Russian 2S19 self-propelled gun that opened fire at night
But at the same time, the russian army and the Luhansk People's Army on the northern front of the Donbass have begun. According to the pictures released by the Russian side, the Russian army used the 2S19 type 152 mm plus howitzer to bombard the positions of the Ukrainian army in the south of the city of Iyum, and the Russian army and the Luhansk People's Army immediately launched a full-line assault on the northern front. By the end of the day, it was said that the fighting had extended to Bavinkovo, tens of kilometers south of Iyyum, and the Luhansk People's Army and the Russian army had taken the small town of Rubezhinoye in the northern suburbs of Severodnetsk and Lisichansk, and the flag of the police station in the city had been replaced by a Russian flag.
Map of the Situation of the Russian-Ukrainian War (Source: Weibo @ Red Robe Firefly IX)
According to other sources, the Russian army and Luhansk troops have rushed into the siege of the city of Severodonitesk and are engaged in street battles with the Ukrainian troops defending the city (probably the remnants of the 30th Aircraft Brigade and the "Aydar" battalion), because the urban built-up area of North Donetsk is very small, only about a quarter of Mariupol, perhaps Mariupol has not yet stopped, North Donetsk has been taken by the Russian army.
Ukraine turned to the West for help
At a time when the conflict in eastern Ukraine is intensifying, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is back active. On March 16, local time, Zelenskiy delivered a speech in the US Congress through video link.
Every U.S. congressman who attends the lecture receives an exquisite "American plus Ukrainian Flag" brooch
For this valuable public relations opportunity, the Ukrainian side attaches great importance to it, not only for every MEMBER of the US Congress who listened to the lecture prepared a beautiful "American plus Ukrainian flag" brooch, but also in the speech compared the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, he mentioned "Remember Pearl Harbor", "the plane attacked you, your sky fell into darkness", he called the Russian-Ukrainian conflict "a common violation of the Western world and Western values", but he did not mention Japan. Zelenskiy also called on U.S. politicians to "do more" during Ukraine's "darkest period," including stepping up sanctions against Russia and sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Last year, during a visit to the United States, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy was presented with a book called "Mild Head Injury."
Zelenskiy's speech brought tears to the eyes of many US congressmen, completely forgetting that when Zelenskiy visited the United States and visited the US Congress last year, he got a book entitled "Mild Head Injury". In addition, because of the mention of Pearl Harbor, Zelenskiy's speech is said to have infuriated the Japanese right-wingers.
Zelenskiy's speech scene
Still, Zelenskiy's speech yielded some results, with U.S. President Joe Biden announcing on March 17 that he would provide Ukraine with a second shipment of $800 million worth of munitions aid. It is said that the U.S. support for Ukraine's supplies includes 2,000 FGM-148A Javelin anti-tank missiles, 1,000 M141 attack rocket launchers, 6,000 AT-4 individual rocket launchers, 800 FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air defense missiles, 5,000 light weapons, 20 million rounds of various types of bullets, 100 grenade launchers, and 100 "spring knife" unmanned aerial vehicles. So far, the United States alone has provided Ukraine with 7,000 to 8,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and nearly a thousand Stinger man-portable air defense missiles.
On the contrary, after european countries have aided a wave of Ukraine in the first week of the conflict, there is no news that other European countries have aided Ukraine except for the United Kingdom. So far, the Uk has probably delivered more than 3,000 NLAW light anti-tank rockets to Ukraine, and is said to have to supply Ukraine with the latest Starlight man-portable air defense missiles;
According to the Washington Observer, hundreds of anti-aircraft missiles provided by Germany to Ukraine are Cold War antiques from East Germany, and these missiles in boxes have become moldy and anyone who handles them must wear protective equipment.
Germany has provided 1,000 Tekken rocket launchers, 500 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and 2,000 East German People's Army man-portable air defense missiles, as well as a large number of combat support materials, and has no plans to provide more equipment to Ukraine.
How much role can The missiles supplied by Britain and the United States play?
So, at this juncture, Britain and the United States continue to provide weapons and equipment assistance to the Ukrainian side, what is the technical and tactical performance, and will it have a decisive impact on the current war situation in Ukraine?
Ukraine itself manages chaos
Ivan the Great believes that we will not talk about the more than 5,000 pieces of light weapons and 20 million rounds of light weapons and ammunition provided by the United States, after all, since the outbreak of the conflict for so long, the supply of light weapons by European countries to Ukraine is said to have reached 20,000, but in fact, the status of the Ukrainian army is:
First of all, there is no shortage of light weapons and ammunition. After all, the day before yesterday, the Russian army alone captured more than 10,000 boxes of Soviet-made F-1 grenades and hundreds of boxes of rockets by the Russian army, and Ukraine must have a very thick family foundation in the Soviet era; secondly, the Ukrainian army seems to be not very good at equipment, logistics and management. That is to say, there are weapons and ammunition, but it is difficult to distribute to those who need them, so there will be mercenaries in Da Lviv, after just a few days of training, issued a broken AK, an AK will have 10 bullets, and even some people will be pulled into the battlefield with their bare hands. If the Ukrainian army cannot change the chaotic situation in logistics and equipment management, it is not known how many people are still enriched in it, and how many light weapons are given to it is useless.
The missiles provided by the West have limited effect
As for the nearly 10,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles that have been delivered to and will be delivered to Ukraine, more than 3,000 NLAW light anti-tank rocket launchers, and the Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, how much can they play in the current engagement? Ivan the Great felt that it was better not to place too high expectations on this melee weapon.
Ukrainian special forces armed with anti-tank bazookas
After all, on the one hand, whether it is a "javelin" or an "NLAW", it is a portable anti-tank missile carried by individual soldiers and squads, and in the anti-tank equipment system of a military power, it belongs to the lowest level of equipment that plays an emergency role. For example, the US military's own anti-tank system, long-range "long nail-NLOS" is being tested, medium-range wired guidance "Tao", "Javelin" is only the battalion management weapon of each infantry brigade, and it is requested by the squad leaders in wartime. That is to say, only when the anti-tank firearms at the divisional and brigade levels have not successfully blocked the impact of the tanks, it is the turn of the infantry squads to carry the "javelins", at this time, it is basically equivalent to tank hand-to-hand combat.
Javelin anti-tank missiles
At the same time, in fact, the use of "javelins" and "NLAW" is not convenient, and the "javelins" given by the United States to Ukraine, according to the situation captured by the Russian army, seem to be old models made at the beginning of this century. These early models, the infrared imaging module of the detachable launch control unit (CLU) has a long warm-up time, the missile seeker is a refrigerated seeker, you need to press the "cooling" button when using, the guide seeker is filled with refrigerant, and if the missile is not used after filling the refrigerant, it can only be scrapped.
Ukrainian soldiers used "javelins" to attack the Russian army's TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launcher
According to the actual test results of the US military, when using the "Javelin" anti-tank missile, the time from the discovery of the target to the actual launch of the missile is generally about 2 minutes, which is actually very dangerous relative to the anti-tank. Of course, some countries, using non-cooling infrared imaging seekers, will have faster reaction times, but Ukraine certainly can't get these more advanced equipment.
NLAW anti-tank missile
Another example is the "NLAW" given by the United Kingdom, although it is expensive as an "anti-tank missile", but in fact there are only simple inertial navigation components in the body of the projectile. Rather than an anti-tank missile, it is an anti-tank bazooka, which requires the target to maintain a uniform linear motion, and the shooter aims at the target for three seconds, and the on-board guidance component automatically solves the fire control elements, so that it can hit the target after being launched. And the range of "NLAW" is only about three hundred meters, when it was handed over to the US military for testing, the US military believed that the performance of the anti-tank rocket launcher was not good.
Anti-tank missiles require a lot of consumption
Finally, in fact, anti-tank missiles, which are "disposable" firearms, need to be used in large quantities. For example, in the Syrian war, statistics show that more than 20,000 anti-tank missiles were fired by various parties; for example, in the 2006 war between the Israeli army and the Lebanese Allah forces, more than 100 "Sagar" and "troika" anti-tank missiles were used in the ambush of a company-sized armored unit of the Israeli army by the Allah party armed forces. Throughout the war, the Allah forces fired a large number of anti-tank missiles almost at any cost, which destroyed 80 Israeli tanks, but only more than 20 of them seemed to be irreparable damage.
Less than a week after the conflict began, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States informed the United States that all 3,000 Javelin missiles given by the United States had been fired. Three weeks after the outbreak of the conflict, Ukraine's anti-tank missiles have confirmed the irreparable damage caused to Russian tanks, and the statistics are only about 200, of which a considerable part of them are discarded by the Russian army itself, and the Ukrainian army comes to destroy it as a result of the battle, and the tank heavy machine guns on the tanks have been removed.
In Mariupol, a Russian T-72 tank was hit by several anti-tank missiles in succession before being destroyed.
Therefore, even if the US military gives 4,000 "javelins", it is theoretically enough for the Ukrainian army to fight for more than ten days, which can cause certain losses to russian tanks. However, it is not mentioned that it has caused huge casualties to the effective forces of the Ukrainian army, and this kind of equipment can only be said to have a relatively limited effect on really blocking the offensive of the Russian army and even changing the overall situation of the battlefield.
"Spring knife" patrol missile
As for the "spring knife" cruise missile, Ivan the Great did not know why so many people blew it into an artifact anyway. This thing is the individual missile we mentioned earlier, a total weight of 2.5 kg of things, it is said that the amount of charge is similar to the U.S. M203 40 mm grenade launcher equipped with a kill grenade, how much damage can be caused to the target can be imagined. In the final analysis, this is a shuttle that can fly more than ten kilometers and has the ability to kill, and the lethality is equivalent to a grenade. Whoever thinks that 100 flying grenades can change the tide of battle, Ivan the Great thinks, he's happy.
In fact, judging from the military assistance provided to Ukraine by the United States and Britain, including the entire Western world in the recent period, it can be fully seen who is in the most anxious and who is not in a hurry and who has been arching the fire in the current situation in Ukraine. At present, the ukrainian government, the biggest source of confidence, is the United States to give the "javelin" and "stinger", as for the lives of ordinary Ukrainians, it has long been out of its consideration.