World Military 2022.2 Think Tank · Special Article of this journal
The conflict in Eastern Ukraine is difficult to stop
□ Wang smiled
At the end of 2021, the situation on Russia's border with Ukraine is worrying. In media reports, there are more than 100,000 troops assembled on both sides at the border. The conflict between Ukraine and the civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine has escalated into a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, like an arrow on the string, on the verge of erupting.
Ukraine's military standoff with Russia has been going on for some time. Recently, the collision between the two sides has almost become white-hot. Ukraine plus the United States, while saying conclusively that Russia is about to invade Ukraine, hastened the arming of Ukrainian government forces and deployed a large number of forces around Russia.
The biggest conflict over Ukraine dates back to 2014. In March of that year, Crimea held a referendum. More than 96 percent of the voters agreed to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The Crimean public commission to Russia is like a "domino" that has fallen. The shock that triggered the independence referendum operation in Donetsk and Luhansk in the Wudong region and the Crimean incident has not yet subsided, and Wudong is about to break up, and the Ukrainian government urgently sends troops to suppress it. Thus opened the curtain on the war that has lasted for nearly 8 years in the Conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
In fact, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine has long since crossed the border, and the ignition and extinguishing of the flames of war are more involuntarily, but depend on the game of all parties. Located in the "Great Black Sea coastal region", Donetsk and Luhansk are doomed to be at the mercy of geopolitics. Sandwiched between the two behemoths of NATO and Russia, Ukraine, which is in a complex geopolitical catastrophe and a mess of political and economic chaos, is inherently a victim of the great power game.
"Russia is big, but we have no way back, and behind us is Moscow!" It was the most famous slogan in the defense of Moscow and inspired thousands of Soviet soldiers to march forward. 80 years later, the slogan was revived in Moscow. The background of this incident is the "accession" of Ukraine under NATO's eastward expansion.
With NATO's five eastward expansions, Russia's european neighbors have joined NATO one after another. Ukraine, which was eagerly awaiting "accession to the treaty," has not been able to do so due to Russian obstruction. Russia sees Ukraine's membership in NATO as a matter of life and death. Russian media "Russia Today" pointed out that NATO's eastward expansion has always been Russia's greatest concern and the most difficult issue in Russia-NATO relations.
Will Russia really invade Ukraine? What is the essence of NATO's eastward expansion? What does a geographical Ukraine mean to Russia? After Crimea, will there be the next flashpoint in ukraine? This issue of "Wudong Conflict, Difficult to Stop" will take you to remove the confusion of illusions and gain insight into the true nature of things with three articles: "The Past and Present Life of the Wudong Problem", "Looking at the "Entry into the Covenant" of Wudong from a Geographical Perspective", and "Whether the Wudong Conflict Can Be "Broken".
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Think Tanks and Monographs
The past and present lives of the Wudong problem
Keywords: Uzbekistan Crimea into Russia Referendum on Independence Udong Conflict Minsk Agreement Udong into Russia
The origin of the Wudong problem
For historical reasons, roughly bounded by the Dnieper River, the eastern and western parts of Ukraine differ greatly in terms of economy, language, culture, religion, etc.
The eastern region of Ukraine mainly refers to three oblasts: Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast. The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, the collective name of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, is where the conflict in eastern Ukraine is most intense.
Donetsk, the capital of donetsk Oblast, is the fourth largest city in Ukraine. Luhansk is the capital of the Luhansk region. Kharkiv is the capital of Kharkiv Oblast and is the second largest city in Ukraine. Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv are the three most important industrial cities in eastern Ukraine. Together, these three regions form a special economic "Golden Triangle", which accounts for 1/3 of Ukraine's industry.
Donetsk and Luhansk were very important coal and industrial bases during the Soviet era. Donetsk is also known as the "Donbas Coal City", and there are very famous Azov steel mills, Ilycha steel mills, as well as a large number of coke plants, chemical plants and so on. In addition to a strong mineral and steel industry, Luhansk is world-renowned for its railway locomotive manufacturing. Kharkiv is the largest industrial and transportation center in Ukraine.
As early as the Tsarist period, there were Russians living here in the Eastern Region. During the Soviet era, Russians poured into the area in large numbers, merging with the local Ukrainians. So the three oblasts of Eastern Ukraine have always been very close to Russia.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Wudong region remained an important link in the industrial supporting chain of Belarus and Russia. The economy here operates mainly on trade with Russia. The higher level of industrial urbanization has made The Wudong region richer than the Wusi region. Due to the deep influence of Russia, the people here are mainly ethnic Russians, and they generally believe in Orthodox Christianity and speak Russian.
Most of the western part of Ukraine is ethnic Ukrainian, who earns a living from agriculture and animal husbandry, and earns a living mainly by exporting agricultural and sideline products to Western European countries. Historically, it has long been ruled by the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and has a strong Catholic cultural background. Ukrainian and Polish speakers are more numerous, and they are more pro-European and anti-Russian in their political leanings.
It is these differences that sow hidden dangers for the division of Ukraine today. Ussi wants to fall to the European Union, Wudong wants to fall to Russia. Ukraine's initial civil unrest was sparked by disagreements over whether East and West Ukraine would join the European Union.
From 2004 to 2005, after the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, pro-Western forces in Ukraine gradually became larger, controlling the central government for a long time, ignoring the basic demands of the people in eastern Ukraine, and forcibly promoting de-Russification measures in the country, such as legislation to abolish the status of the official language of the Russian language and terminate economic cooperation with Russia. For example, Ukraine relies heavily on Russian energy, and every year it imports a large amount of Russian natural gas and oil, and Russia also gives a very favorable price. But instead of importing energy from Russia, Ukraine is spending high prices on shale oil and gas from the United States. This has seriously damaged the interests of the people in the Eastern Region.
At the end of 2013, pro-Western and pro-Russian forces in Ukraine fought in the dark. Ukraine was supposed to sign a free trade agreement with the EU, but because Russia showed better leverage, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to terminate the agreement with the EU. An upgraded version of the "Orange Revolution" broke out at the instigation of Western forces.
On January 19, 2014, about 10,000 Ukrainian opposition rebels rallied in the capital Kiev, where demonstrators clashed fiercely with police. In the confusion, Yanukovych resigned and fled.
Meanwhile, the media (reported on March 25, 2014) exposed a recording of a phone call between former Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko and former deputy parliamentary secretary-general Nistol Shufrech. In the dialogue between the two, Tymoshenko said that the 8 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine should be "directly eliminated with nuclear weapons" in order to ensure the national security of Ukraine...
All this has intensified the distrust and centrifugal tendencies towards the government in eastern Wudong.
In March 2014, Crimea launched a referendum, and more than 96% of Crimeans voted to join Russia. On March 18, Putin signed an order to send Russian troops to Crimea, which was incorporated into Russia.
The Crimean public commission to Russia is like a "domino" that has fallen. Since then, pro-Russian groups of people in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of The Eastern region have followed suit and held demonstrations demanding a referendum to determine the future of the three states.
Timeline of the Wudong Conflict
It has been nearly 8 years since the outbreak of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. During this period, the civilian armed forces of Eastern Wudong negotiated several ceasefires with the Ukrainian government forces. But in the end, it is difficult to stop.
In April 2014, pro-Russian people in Luhansk, Kharkov, and Donetsk held protest rallies and demanded federalism and membership in Russia. Local pro-Russian protesters in Kharkiv proclaimed the establishment of the "Kharkiv People's Republic" next to the state government building. In Donetsk, rallies occupied the state government building. Raise the Russian flag. There were protesters throwing Molotov cocktails into government buildings. Caused a fire in a government building.
On the evening of April 7, 2014, the Ukrainian government sent special forces to the Wudong region to suppress local protesters. Subsequently, large-scale clashes broke out between the Ukrainian government army and the civilian armed forces, and the Ukrainian government army was defeated and retreated.
On May 11, 2014, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions held local referendums on the status of the two regions. Organizers of the referendum in both states declared the referendum passed by a larger vote. According to the Central Election Commission of the "Donetsk People's Republic", in a referendum on the independence of the Donetsk Region, 89.07 per cent of the votes in favour of independence. According to the Central Electoral Commission of the "Luhansk People's Republic", 96 percent of the votes were in favour of independence in the referendum on the independence of the Luhansk region.
In order to control the situation in Oudong and prevent the Crimea incident from happening again, the Ukrainian government sent troops to the Wudong region to carry out "anti-terrorism operations". During the conflict, many Ukrainian government soldiers turned against each other, making the war in eastern Wudong stalemate.
In July 2014, the Ukrainian government army launched the "Summer."
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Offensive", soon took Debalytsev, cut off the links between the civilian armed forces in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and although the civilian armed forces later recaptured some towns, the two sides formed a confrontation. In July, the European Union began imposing economic sanctions on Russia on the grounds of "destabilizing eastern Ukraine."
On September 5, 2014, the Tripartite Liaison Group (Ukraine, OSCE, Russia) and the Militia of Eastern Ukraine signed the 12-point Minsk Protocol in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, demanding an unconditional ceasefire between the Ukrainian government forces and the militia forces of Eastern Ukraine. However, due to the divergence over the withdrawal and the status of Donbass, a compromise could not be reached. This doomed the Minsk agreement to be a fragile peace agreement.
In January 2015, a large-scale battle broke out between the Russian army, the civilian armed forces of Eastern Uzbekistan and the Ukrainian government army in Debali Tsevo, and tens of thousands of troops were mobilized on both sides. In this battle, the Ukrainian government army was defeated miserably. The defeat on the battlefield deprived the Ukrainian government of its voice in the Donbass region.
In February 2015, under the mediation of the European Union, Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine signed an upgraded version of the Minsk Agreement. The new Minsk agreement includes a ceasefire between Ukrainian government forces and civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, the determination of a ceasefire demarcation line, and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the line of contact.
According to the upgraded Minsk Agreement, the Ukrainian government wants to grant the declared independent "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" a high degree of autonomy. In fact. This is a disguised recognition of the independent status of the Donbass region ukraine to fulfill this agreement, and even to amend the constitution.
Since then, large-scale armed conflicts in the Eastern Wudong region have been brought under control, but small-scale firefights have occurred from time to time.
Statistics from relevant UN agencies show that from mid-April 2014 to March 19, 2015, the conflict in Wudong killed at least 6,072 people and injured 15,345 people in the conflict zone. In addition, the number of registered refugees in Ukraine alone exceeds 1.1 million.
In 2017, the international community's attention to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine continued to weaken, and the situation in Eastern Ukraine formed a new feature of cyclical escalation, which deteriorated sharply every two or three months to "recall" people's attention. Mediation on ukraine, although still under way, is difficult to reach consensus. In July 2017, Zakharchenko, the leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, issued a statement saying that after a three-year transition period, a new state, the "Little Russian State", would be created to replace Ukraine. A stone stirs up thousands of waves, causing a strong backlash from all sides.
In June 2018, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine held talks on the situation in Ukraine. In November, Russia detained three Ukrainian warships attempting to cross the Kerch Strait on the grounds of "violating Russian borders." In December, then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a legal document on the non-renewal of the Ukrainian-Russian Treaty of Friendship.
In July 2019, the parties to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine agreed to implement an indefinite ceasefire from the 21st of that month. The main elements of the indefinite ceasefire are: the supreme command of the parties to the conflict issued a ceasefire order in a publicly declared manner, emphasizing that no reconnaissance sabotage and aggressive conduct should be taken
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move, no longer use any measures of force. Heavy weapons and equipment must not be deployed in residential areas, especially near civilian facilities such as kindergartens, schools, hospitals, etc.
The 63-month civil war in Ukraine has finally dawned on an indefinite ceasefire.
In July 2020, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine issued a statement on a comprehensive ceasefire in the Eastern Region. The statement said that since 00:00 on July 27, a comprehensive ceasefire has been implemented in the Donbass region, the two sides of the conflict have prohibited offensive, reconnaissance and sabotage activities, all hostile acts, including sniping, will effectively implement the binding measures and reporting system for violations of the ceasefire, and establish a ceasefire coordination mechanism for the Donbass military line of contact...
However, 6 months later, the situation in Wudong suddenly became tense. In the spring of 2021, small-scale exchanges of fire between the civilian armed forces in Eastern Wudong and the Ukrainian government forces continued, and the two sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. Since March 2021, the Ukrainian government forces have continuously sent additional troops and weapons such as tanks, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles and other weapons to the front line in eastern Ukraine and used heavy weapons to attack the civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, causing many military and civilian casualties. The number of exchanges of fire between the two sides increased, and the intensity of the clashes gradually increased. According to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission for Ukraine, on April 2, 2021 alone, there were 511 bombings and more than 1,000 violations of the ceasefire agreement in the Donbass region.
In March, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy signed a decree aimed at retaking the Crimean Autonomous Republic and Sevastopol and reunifying Ukraine with Ukrainian forces. The war in Eastern Ukraine is raging, and Ukraine actually wants to "take back" Crimea, which has been held by Russia, and the international community is shocked.
Until the end of 2021, senior Ukrainian officials continued to show that Russia was increasing its troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border and preparing to invade Ukraine. Naturally, the United States has not been idle, vigorously cheering up Ukraine, expressing its support for its "recovery of territory" and providing weapons assistance to Ukraine...
For a time, black clouds pressed the city, and mountain rain was coming.
Where's the next tipping point?
After crimea was incorporated into Russia, Russia took over Crimea and Sevastopol, retaining the name of its autonomous republic. In 2016, Putin signed a presidential decree merging the southern federal jurisdiction of Russia and Crimea into the "southern federal district", administratively strengthening the control of Crimea.
Today, the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" in the Wudong region have existed for nearly 8 years. Clear-eyed people know that without Russia's secret help, it would be difficult for the civilian armed forces in Eastern Wudong to support to this day. In the past eight years, the voices of the merger of the two places into Russia have sounded from time to time.
As early as the referendum in 2014, the two places said they wanted to join Russia. In 2017, Zakharchenko proposed that a "small Russian state" would be established after a three-year transition period, but there was no positive response. Zzigorko, the press secretary of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko at the time, quoted the president as saying on Twitter: "The 'new Russia' program has been buried." Ukraine will regain sovereignty over Donbass and Crimea. Deinago, Luhansk's representative for coordination of international issues, said Donetsk's proposal to create a "small Russian state" was anachronistic. The official attitude of Russia is that Russia supports the Minsk agreement.
In 2019, Putin signed a visa to simplify the process for applying for Russian citizenship for humanitarian purposes
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Decree of the Order. The decree allowed residents of Donetsk and Luhansk to easily obtain Russian citizenship. This is interpreted by the outside world as Russia accelerating the process of integration with Donbass.
By July 2020, voices of Donetsk and Luhansk wanting to merge into Russia were ringing again, and Russia responded that it "didn't know much about the specifics." Obviously, Putin's attitude is not as positive as the outside world thinks.
The latest development is that in September 2021, Putin signed a presidential decree establishing a single Russian-Donbass customs space; in November 2021, Putin allowed the products of the Donbas civilian armed forces to enter the Russian market without discrimination, participate in state procurement, and decided to provide economic assistance to them. On December 5, 2021, Pushlin, the leader of the Donetsk Civil Armed Forces, said in response to a reporter's question on the situation in Oudong that at present, the number of people who have obtained Russian passports in Donetsk has exceeded 350,000, and all residents of the "Donetsk People's Republic" will be granted Russian citizenship over time.
Pushlin also pointed out that the Kiev regime is ready to resume military operations in Donbass, mobilizing a large number of troops, equipment, frequent training and pre-war mobilization to the eastern region, which has become a real threat to the Minsk agreement. Donbass will not supply ukraine with coal. Kiev lacks the preconditions for The sale of coal in Donetsk, and even if Ukraine strongly demands to buy it, Donetsk will not supply ...
The article "The Unrecognized "State": The Geopolitics of Donetsk and Luhansk" is professional and unique: "The Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" are located in an extremely important geopolitical center - the "Great Black Sea Coast Region". They are located in the northern part of the "Great Black Sea coastal region" and border Russia to the east. Donetsk is only 233 km and 115 km from Russia's Taganrog and Markupori on the northern shore of the Black Sea, 158 km from Russia's Azov (Rostov), the westernmost tip of the Black Sea, and only 130 km from Eysk on the Black Sea in southern Russia, across the Taganrog Gulf. When the Black Sea region became a must-fight for the superpowers and regional powers, the attention and competition for the two "self-proclaimed republics" in southeastern Ukraine became a geopolitical war. Whoever controls this area controls the initiative, or even control, of the "Great Black Sea Coastal Region". These two "republics" have existed for nearly 8 years, which is the result of geopolitical competition and game.
For example, in a game of cards, the winner or loser is not decided, and the cards will not be put away. This is determined by the nature of Donetsk and Luhansk themselves.
For Russia, after taking Crimea into its pocket, it must weigh the need and risk of taking the Wudong region again. After all, the importance of Udong cannot be said to be the same as that of Crimea. Once the Eastern Region is taken, it is not necessary to say that more severe sanctions from the West will be imposed, and the fact that Ukraine will collapse to the West with a dead heart is absolutely unacceptable to Putin. Leaving Behind The Conflict with Kiev, which has been left in control, can provide Putin with one good card after another in the game of manipulating Russian-Ukrainian relations.
The Conflict between Ukraine and Eastern Europe was not a simple Civil War in Ukraine, but a deep geopolitical contest. For Ukraine, Crimea is gone, where will the next flashpoint be? (Editor: Ma Ying)
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Article Source:
World Military Magazine (Semi-Monthly), No. 2, 2022
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