Kishida Fumio hastily pushed for the revision of the Constitution and was vigilant against the risk of Japan's rearmament | Beijing News column

On March 13, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio delivered a speech at the congress of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party held in Tokyo, expressing his intention to amend the Japanese Constitution. Kishida Fumio infographic. Photo: Xinhua News Agency

According to CCTV, on March 13, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio delivered a speech at the congress of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party held in Tokyo, expressing his intention to change Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.

The current Constitution of Japan came into force in 1947. Article IX stipulates that Japan shall forever renounce the launching of war, the threat of force or the use of force as a means of settling international disputes. To this end, Japan does not maintain the army, navy, air force and other war forces, and does not recognize the right of the state to be belligerent. Because of this provision, the current Constitution of Japan is also known as the "Constitution of Peace".

Since the promulgation of the "Peace Constitution," there have been constant attempts to revise the Constitution within Japan. Although Kishida Fumio has a "dovish" personality in Japanese politics, he has been an active "constitutional revisionist" since he ran for prime minister, and has repeatedly advocated promoting constitutional revision. This time, at the LDP congress, the old tune was repeated, apparently believing that the "time" had come to amend the Constitution.

On the grounds of security, we will explore ways in constitutional amendment matters

Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, many members of Kishida's cabinet have changed their previous relatively low-key posture on the grounds that the security environment has changed, and have repeatedly created momentum in matters related to constitutional amendments and let the wind explore the way.

For example, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's favorite successor, Sanae Takaichi, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and Government Research Council, took advantage of the discussion in the Kishida cabinet to discuss "taking the initiative to attack enemy bases" and demanded a discussion on whether to abandon Japan's "three principles of non-nuclear weapons, and advocated that in the event of an emergency, an exception should be allowed to introduce nuclear weapons and a "nuclear sharing" policy should be adopted. After Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill to establish a special economic zone in the South Kuril Islands, Takashi Sanae also stated that Russia is no longer a negotiating opponent on the issue of the four northern islands (the South Kuril Islands).

Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to echo Takaichi's claims, saying that the four northern islands were Japan's "inherent territory" and that Japan had "legitimate sovereignty." This statement clearly broke through the cautious attitude of Abe during the Jinzo period to talk about peace.

Kishida responded quickly to this uproar within the Liberal Democratic Party. On the one hand, he changed the name of the four northern islands as Japan's "inherent territory", on the other hand, he said that although the government has not yet discussed "nuclear sharing", all political parties and all sectors of society can discuss it.

It should be pointed out that whether it is "active attack on enemy bases" or "nuclear sharing", it has actually broken through the constraints of Article 9 of Japan's current constitution. "Nuclear sharing" is NATO's policy to protect non-nuclear members, and Japan is not a NATO member.

As for calling the Kuril Islands an "inherent territory" of Japan, it directly challenged the San Francisco Peace Treaty. The peace treaty gave Post-War Japan state status, but only on the condition that Japan recognize the independence of the Korean Peninsula and renounce its so-called sovereignty over Taiwan, Penghu, the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin Islands, the Nansha Islands, and the Paracel Islands. If Japan can recall the "sovereignty" of the Kuril Islands today, will there be trouble tomorrow on the issue of sovereignty, such as the Korean Peninsula? This is something to be vigilant about.

In order to stabilize the phase, Kishida Fumio's motivation to revise the constitution was strengthened

It should be noted that the Liberal Democratic Party jumped up and down without scruples, and Kishida Fumio also changed from a "dove" to an "eagle." In addition to the US Biden administration taking the opportunity to play the "offshore balance" and instigate Japan's constitutional revision forces, it is also related to the change in the attitude of Japanese politics toward constitutional revision.

According to the Constitution of Japan, the initiation of the constitutional amendment process requires the consent of a two-thirds majority of the House of Representatives, or 310 seats. During the Abe period, due to the cautious attitude of the Komeito Party, which is allied with the Liberal Democratic Party, and the opposition parties that oppose the revision of the Constitution, which have many seats, the revision of the Constitution can only be limited to the discussion stage. But now that has changed. First of all, the attitude of the Komeito Party has changed, and many members of the opposition house such as the Constitutional Democratic Party have also changed their original positions.

According to a survey by Japanese media such as the Yomiuri Shimbun, nearly 72 percent of the newly elected members of the Japanese House of Representatives agreed to amend the constitution. Since the LDP and komeito ruling coalition have 261 seats, far exceeding the "stable majority" of 244 seats, while 98% of LDP MPs agree to amend the constitution, the Kmang party also agrees to partially amend the constitution, and 100% of the members of the right-wing Restoration Council agree to amend the constitution, and the number of people who agree to amend the constitution is expected to exceed 310. Therefore, if Kishida Fumio really wants to start the constitutional amendment in the House of Representatives, there is no obstacle.

It is worth noting that since the Kishida faction (Koikekai) belonged to a small faction in Japanese politics, Kishida Fumio's promotion of constitutional revision would help him win the support of the Abe faction, the Aso faction, and the Restoration Society, and stabilize its position. Therefore, Kishida Fumio's motivation to promote constitutional revision has also increased.

The Biden administration cannot turn a blind eye to Japan's constitutional amendments

However, in addition to the threshold of the House of Representatives, Kishida Fumio needs the consent of more than half of the people to complete the revision of the constitution.

In the past, Japan's anti-nuclear and anti-war forces were relatively strong. A poll at the end of last year showed that about 52 percent of the population was cautious about amending the constitution, basically half for and half for and half against.

Judging from the current ups and downs of the LDP, Kishida's goal in revising the Constitution is to abolish Article 9. Of course, there is also another option, that is, the Komeito Party proposes to retain part of the original Article 9 content, and then change some and add some expressions.

But that's just technical. The obvious trend is that in Japan, from the political arena to the people, many people are impatient to revise the constitution.

Japan's constitutional revision is not as simple as changing the two Japanese Self-Defense Force organizations into the Japanese Army. The risks implied in its constitutional amendment include, but are not limited to: even if it does not join NATO, it can enjoy NATO's "quasi-national treatment", so that NATO can gain a channel to interfere in the DprK nuclear issue and the East China Sea issue; from the legal level, it distorts and subverts the post-World War II international order and increases sovereignty disputes in East Asia; it worsens the security situation in Northeast Asia and promotes nuclear competition.

For these risks, the United States cannot turn a blind eye.

Because Japan's current "peace constitution" is promulgated under the leadership of the United States, even former President Trump can see the risk of Japan's rearmament. If the Biden administration views it as opportunistic, it will not only deny its own anti-fascist history, but also lay a time bomb for the so-called U.S.-led international security system.

Beijing News special writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)

Edit | Chi Daohua

Proofreading | Wu Xingfa