Core view - focus on major events in the industry at home and abroad, gather the views of Chinese and foreign celebrities and experts, analyze the development of the industry, and take you to understand the future trend!
Jiwei Network reported that as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues so far, the war has gradually spread to the automotive industry chain, and has an important impact on automotive raw materials, supply chains, semiconductors and vehicle manufacturing.
First, the soaring prices of key raw materials catalyzed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are curbing the efforts of electric vehicle manufacturers to reduce costs and the promotion and popularization of electric vehicles.
Secondly, as the War between Russia and Ukraine burned to automotive electronics, automotive wiring harnesses became the first key components of automotive electronics to be supplied by the impact of the war, and extended to terminal applications such as automobile manufacturing.
In addition, due to the shortage of key gases and materials in Russia and Ukraine, there may be a global interruption in semiconductor production, which will lead to a substantial reduction in automobile production.
In addition, under the crisis of global lack of cores, the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also brought severe tests to the fragile automobile manufacturing and import and export markets, of which South Korean car companies have been the most affected.
Soaring raw material prices hinder the popularity of electric vehicles
Apparently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is pushing up the price of metal materials for automobiles, including aluminum in car bodies, palladium in catalytic converters, and nickel for electric vehicle batteries.
Among them, the price of aluminum and palladium has hit record highs a few days ago, and nickel has soared to its highest price since 2007.
According to uk benchmark mining intelligence, Nornickel, Russia's largest miner, produces about 20% of the world's high-purity nickel. This nickel is used in electric vehicle batteries. In addition, Russia is also a major supplier of aluminum, which is also used in the production of batteries.
Gregory Miller, a benchmark mining intelligence analyst in the UK, said rising prices for nickel, lithium and other materials could slow or even temporarily reverse the long-term trend of falling battery costs, hindering the widespread adoption of the technology and electric vehicles.
Although the metals sector has yet to be the target of Western sanctions against Russia, some shipping companies and parts suppliers have begun to steer clear of Russian goods.
That puts even more pressure on automakers already struggling with chip shortages and rising energy prices.
Carlos Tavares, CEO of Stellantis, the world's fourth-largest automaker, previously said, "What happens next?" First, rising raw material and energy costs will put more pressure on our business model. ”
Andreas Weller, CEO of Aludyne, which makes aluminum and magnesium die castings for automakers, said aluminum costs for its European operations have risen 60 percent in the past four months, as well as energy bills. Today costs have soared by hundreds of millions of dollars.
Caspar Rawles, chief data officer at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a specialist consultancy, said lithium prices have now hit record highs, as are cobalt and nickel prices. This will only exacerbate the shortage of raw materials for batteries.
It can be said that any factor that increases costs will hinder the popularity of electric vehicles. The soaring prices of key raw materials catalyzed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are curbing the efforts of electric vehicle manufacturers to reduce costs.
As prices for nickel, lithium and other important raw materials used to make electric vehicles soar, it will take longer than expected for automakers to achieve cost parity between electric vehicles and conventional fuel vehicles and to promote the popularity of electric vehicles.
The war has affected automotive electronics and caused a large shortage of vehicle wiring harnesses
As many industries and militaries are affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is difficult for the automotive electronics industry chain to stand alone.
At present, the world's largest automotive wiring harness manufacturer German LEONI (Leoni) factories in Ukraine and Russia have been shut down due to the war, making the automotive wiring harness the first key component of automotive electronics supplied by the war.
The suspension of LEONI's plant in Russia and Ukraine has caused a large shortage of vehicle wiring harnesses, which in turn has affected the shipment of well-known terminal car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi.
In this regard, industry analysts analyzed that LEONI has more than 86,000 employees in 31 countries around the world, supplying a large number of automotive wiring harnesses to Major German automotive manufacturers.
LEONI has two plants in southwest Ukraine, employing around 7,000 people, while two plants in Russia supply German depots. Therefore, the suspension of production in this factory has a great impact.
Specifically, the Volkswagen Group's automotive wiring harness inventory is already facing depletion, and announced that the two-seat depots in Zwickau and Dresden in Saxony State have temporarily suspended for several days, and more plants may be shut down in the future.
A BMW spokesperson said on March 10 that due to supply chain problems caused by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the company's largest car production plant in Dingolfin may also be completely shut down, while BMW Mini production in Oxford will be suspended for two weeks.
"Other plants in Germany and other parts of Europe are operating normally. However, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the ongoing chip shortage, further disruptions are expected. ”
In addition, brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Porsche have also been affected by production cuts, so they are striving to obtain key automotive wiring harnesses.
In Taiwan, Hon Hai Chairman Liu Yangwei confirmed that some customers have suspended shipments due to the war, and the supply of vehicle wiring harnesses has been affected by the war.
As automakers actively seek the source of wiring harnesses, some manufacturers in Taiwan, such as Guangyu and Trade Union, may benefit.
According to industry sources, thanks to the orders from Hon Hai Group's electric vehicle wiring harnesses, coupled with the benefits of new customers in the Mainland Anhui Plant, Guangyu's vehicle revenue will stand in double digits for the first time this year.
Although some Taiwanese manufacturers can gain some benefits from this crisis, from the overall pattern, the basic supply of automotive electronics such as global automotive wiring harnesses has been greatly affected, and it may be difficult to repair in the short term.
The disruption of semiconductor production will lead to a significant reduction in automobile production
As we all know, Russia and Ukraine are the main exporters of rare gases such as krypton, krypton and xenon gas necessary for semiconductor production, but semiconductor manufacturers have previously said that because inventory and diversification strategies work, it has not affected semiconductor production.
Among them, UMC also decided to take the lead in signing long-term contracts with gas suppliers, taking the lead in locking the volume and price, in order to reduce the potential risks of the future Supply Chain of related gas materials in Ukraine.
Although TSMC did not take the action of signing a long contract with the supplier, it asked the supplier to propose the impact and analysis of the war between the two sides.
In response, the supplier replied: "If the war lasts for one month, there is stock to support it; if it is maintained for three months, it will be urgent; if it is maintained for one year, it will be out of stock." ”
Unlike the unanimous optimism of fabs, the industry also has more pessimistic forecasts.
Recently, the research institute IHS Markit released an emergency forecast for alternative production, focusing on the interruption of semiconductor production that may be caused by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In this pessimistic forecast, IHS Markit's latest forecast for global light vehicle production in 2022 will be reduced by 3.5 million units due to continued semiconductor manufacturing supply disruptions, resulting in global light vehicle production falling to 80.6 million units this year.
Obviously, this forecast is mainly based on the fact that Ukraine and Russia have always accounted for a large proportion of supply in terms of other raw materials such as gases (especially neon gas) and palladium on which semiconductor manufacturing relies.
The IHS Markit hypothesis is based on severe disruptions in the supply of gases and materials due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But given the severity of the conflict and the sanctions imposed on the Russian government and financial system, the possibility seems to be growing.
Of course, this prediction is based only on the current disruption in semiconductor production. IHS Markit also pointed out that there may be other supply chain disruptions in the coming months, which may even affect the supply of raw materials.
In any case, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will have an important impact on the global supply of key semiconductor gas materials, which in turn will affect semiconductor manufacturing. And the longer this conflict lasts, the greater the crisis of semiconductor production disruption.
Affected the vehicle manufacturing market South Korean car companies are the most affected
Under the crisis such as the global lack of cores, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also brought severe tests to the country's fragile automobile manufacturing and import and export.
First, joint ventures and local production of light vehicle manufacturers around the world may be closed. The biggest affected will be AvtoVaz (Lada), in which Renault Group owns 67.6 percent, and its joint venture Avtoframos.
Also affected, StrategyAnalytics (Avtotor in Kaliningrad), Ford (Ford-sollers near St. Petersburg), Hyundai (St. Petersburg), Mercedes-Benz (Moscow), Mitsubishi (Kaluga), Toyota (St. Petersburg) and Volkswagen (Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod), were also affected, according to the StrategyAnalytics report.
In addition, the export of light vehicles by foreign manufacturers to the Russian market may be stopped. Because of the depreciation of the ruble and the suspension of SWIFT payments, it was commercially unable to survive.
At the same time, the export, aftermarket or repair of parts produced by foreign car companies in Russia will also be stopped. This puts the vehicle at risk of lack of maintenance or even loss of operability, such as the lack of OTA updates or "bricking" of the vehicle.
In terms of Russian auto imports and exports, South Korean car companies will be most affected by this conflict.
At present, the Russian auto market ranks 12th in the world and 5th in Europe, making it the third largest export market for South Korean automobiles. Among them, finished cars and parts accounted for 40% of South Korea's exports to Russia in 2021, the highest of all goods.
In 2021, Hyundai's Kia and Hyundai are the second and third-largest car brands in Russia, with sales totaling 373,000 units, higher than the number one local brands (351,000 units).
However, due to the disruption of semiconductor supply due to the conflict crisis, Hyundai motor cancelled plans to resume operations at the Russian plant on March 10.
In addition, Hyundai also acquired GM's local plant in 2020, planning to start mass production this year and export to the European and North American markets. If the situation deteriorates, this plan may also be canceled.
The Korea Association of Automobile Manufacturers recently predicted that if the Contradiction between Russia and Ukraine escalates into a full-scale conflict, the sales of Korean cars in Russia will be reduced by up to 29%, and the supply will also be reduced at the same time.
Obviously, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made the Russian auto market "both sides hurt", which has led to the development of its own automobile industry and a sharp contraction in the import and export market. The "lying gun" of the automobile industry will pose a major challenge to Russia's industrial and economic development. (Proofreading/Hidden Dracy)