According to Xinhua News Agency, US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby said on the 9th that in view of the intelligence community's belief that the transfer of fighters to Ukraine may aggravate the situation, the US side does not support the transfer of fighters to the Ukrainian Air Force at this stage. This is the united and NATO's refusal to allow Ukrainian President Zelenskiy to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine on the 4th, and the United States and NATO have once again rejected the Ukrainian demand, on the grounds that "the West is not willing to directly get involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict."
A spokesman for the US Department of Defense said that the US side does not support the transfer of combat aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force at this stage
Previously, it was reported that after Zelenskiy requested more military assistance from the United States on the 5th, US congressmen urged the Biden administration to hand over fighter jets from Poland and other NATO and Eastern European countries to Ukraine on Monday (7th). On the 8th local time, the Polish Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that 28 MiG-29 fighters can be sent to the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and the US troops stationed there will be transferred to Ukraine, and the United States needs to send the same number of F-16 fighters to Poland to make up for the shortage of Polish military aircraft.
In this regard, the Pentagon categorically rejected Poland's proposal on the 8th, and said that the proposal was "untenable." According to the Observer Network, for the repeated and "back-and-forth ripping" between the United States and Poland on the issue of turning the belligerent, Zelenskiy shouted in his speech on the 9th: "This is not (playing back and forth) table tennis!" It's about the lives of people (in Ukraine)! Once again, we ask that the problem be resolved as soon as possible, that we not shirk our responsibilities and that we be provided with fighter jets. ”
As for the "back and forth" between the United States and Poland on the issue of turning the belligerent, Zelenskiy once angrily shouted: "This is not [back and forth] ping-pong!" ”
Why did the United States continue to "arch" Poland's warplanes to Ukraine, and then "categorically reject" Poland's proposal? Why did Poland make a high-profile announcement that it was willing to supply Ukraine with warplanes but put them at the disposal of the United States? Xu Ruojie, assistant researcher of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was interviewed by Red Star News to conduct in-depth analysis and interpretation of this.
【United States】
I was going to stay out of the matter and exchange "low cost" for "high yield"
Didn't expect to "lift a stone and drop it on my own feet"
Before saying on the 9th that it did not support the transfer of warplanes to Ukraine at this stage, the United States had been "encouraging" Poland to provide Russian-made fighters to Ukraine. During a video call with US lawmakers from both parties on the 5th, Zelenskiy "urgently pleaded" with Eastern European countries to provide Russian-made fighter MiG-29s so that Ukrainian pilots who had received training in such fighters could "get started quickly." In response to Zelenskiy's request, the White House then said it was in talks with Poland on the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets, considering providing Poland with an equal number of F-16 fighters to fill the gap.
Polish MiG-29 fighter
Dr. Xu Ruojie told Red Star News that at a time when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is currently "deadlocked", the real intention of the United States at the beginning of encouraging Poland to provide fighters to Ukraine is to influence the Russian-Ukrainian war situation in a way that "stays out of the matter" and "low cost and high return". He added: "On the one hand, the United States wants to indirectly channel weapons and other strategic resources to Ukraine through Poland, avoiding a direct conflict with Russia." On the other hand, indirectly supplying Ukraine with warplanes would also prevent the Zelenskiy government from making a quick concession to Russia because it is 'difficult to resist'. ”
"The original intention of the United States was to trap Russia in the Ukraine problem for a long time, making this problem a bleeding point that will not be fatal in the short term, but will consume Russia in the long term, thus making Russia pay a 'painful' price." Xu Ruojie pointed out that this is also a strategy adopted by the United States for a long time.
Xu Ruojie said that since the Cold War, the United States has carried out local wars through "aid agents" to achieve the purpose of attacking opponents.
The Polish Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 8th that Poland is ready to immediately hand over all 28 Russian-made fighters miG-29 to the United States for disposal
After Poland's high-profile announcement that it had all 28 MiG-29 fighters at the disposal of the United States, Xu Believe believed that the United States had actually "lifted a stone and dropped it on its own feet." On the 8th, Poland's proposal was rejected by the US side and was called "untenable". At that time, the US statement mentioned that Poland's proposal showed the "complexity" of handing over the fighters to Ukraine. In this regard, Xu Ruojie believes that the so-called "transport challenge" is just an excuse for the United States' unwillingness to take the lead in providing fighter jets to Ukraine. On the contrary, the United States prefers to "participate" in the Russian-Ukrainian issue through indirect and implicit support.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the United States once again expressed its rejection of Poland's proposal on the 9th, and said that it did not support the transfer of warplanes to Ukraine at this stage, saying that this may "increase the possibility of Military escalation between Russia and Ukraine." At the same time, the US side also believes that it is now "wiser" to provide defensive weapons to Ukraine, which reflects the attitude of the United States that it is not willing to "directly involve in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict".
The U.S. side believes that it is now "wiser" to provide Ukraine with defensive weapons
Xu Ruojie pointed out that since former President Trump took office in 2017, the strategic focus of the United States has always been in the Indo-Pacific region "east" of the earth, not the European region of the "west" of the earth. Even after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States did not want to be directly involved in the conflict, unwilling to intervene substantively or assume the responsibility of leading the confrontation with Russia.
【Poland】
Because of "geo-anxiety", he was tempted by the fighter to "trade in the old"
But suddenly "anti-general first army": kicking the risk back to the United States
Red Star News previously reported that Polish government spokesman Müller clarified the idea of "sending fighters to Ukraine" on the 6th. Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said NATO members had been allowed to supply warplanes to Ukraine. Müller responded at the time that the operation was still under discussion and explicitly denied reports of fighter jets taking off from airfields in Poland for combat missions to Ukraine, calling it "false news." Polish President Andrei Duda has previously said that sending warplanes to Ukraine is tantamount to interfering in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
US Secretary of State Blinken said on the 6th that NATO members have been allowed to provide warplanes to Ukraine, which was denied by the Polish government
After repeated arching fires in the United States, Poland announced on the 8th that it had decided to provide all 28 of its MiG-29 fighters to the United States and transfer them to Ukraine for use. At the same time, Poland has demanded that the United States provide it with second-hand fighters with similar combat capabilities, and Poland is ready to immediately begin discussions on the conditions for purchasing these fighters. In addition, the Polish government has asked other NATO countries with MiG-29 fighter jets to take similar action. According to the U.S. side, the Polish government did not consult with the United States before announcing the news.
Mihał Baranowski, director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Foundation, said Poland's move was due to "surprise and shock" at Blinken's previous statement, "This is the United States putting pressure on Poland," Xinhua reported. So the reaction [of Poland] was to kick the ball back to the U.S. government. Regarding the change in Poland's attitude before and after, Xu Ruojie pointed out that the ultimate purpose of Poland's "diplomatic technique" is to "force" the United States and its European allies to make clear support and commitment to Poland.
Xu Ruojie told Red Star News that because of its special geographical location, which is close to Ukraine and at the forefront of the Western confrontation with Russia, Poland tends to be more cautious in adopting foreign policy. Foreign media previously reported that because of the border with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, the Polish government does not want to transfer fighters directly from within its territory to Ukraine, so as not to be seen as a "unilateral provocation".
Xu Ruojie said that Poland clearly understands that if it directly supports Ukraine, Poland is bound to be "countered" by Russia. "Therefore, Poland is doing its best to find a way to count this military assistance on the head of the United States and NATO, so as to obtain the commitments and guarantees provided by the United States and NATO." Xu Ruojie said.
Xinhua News Agency reported that Polish Prime Minister Mateus Morawiecki said during a visit to Vienna, Austria, on the 9th that Poland is not a participant in the war, and Poland cannot make a decision on whether to send the warplane to neighboring Ukraine alone, but "must be unanimously and clearly decided by all members of the North Atlantic Alliance."
In addition, Xu Ruojie also told Red Star News that "geo-anxiety" has made Poland "tempted" by the replacement of old fighters with new ones from the United States. Xu Ruojie said that Poland's previous motivation for joining NATO, sandwiched between east and west, was also to ensure its own security. Through NATO's acquisition of strategic resources such as weapons and military technology, Poland can improve its military level and its ability to defend its own security, "For Poland, exchanging obsolete MiG-29 fighters for American-made fighterS-16s can greatly improve the country's military modernization level and accelerate the improvement of its military capabilities." ”
Republican senators who signed the joint letter also wore pro-Ukraine badges on their clothes
According to foreign media reports on the 10th, after the Pentagon rejected the proposal of Polish fighters for two consecutive days, 40 Republican senators signed a joint letter urging the Biden administration to allow the transfer of Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, including Mitt Romney, who had participated in the 2012 presidential campaign. In their letter, senators wrote: "We implore you to act quickly to provide Ukraine with the air power it desperately needs." Senators also argue that the Biden administration's proposed "logistical problem" of exchanging fighter jets could be resolved in other ways, perhaps using "other remaining aircraft" in U.S. stockpiles.
"The U.S. may coordinate more possibilities in other ways." First, Poland may be provided with security commitments; second, it may be provided with corresponding economic or military benefits. Xu Ruojie believes that the United States may continue to coordinate with Poland and other NATO countries to transfer the warplane. Although the United States has said it does not support the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine at this stage, the "trade-in" of fighters may also become a key negotiating chip for the United States in the future.
Red Star News related reports: The United States encourages Poland to supply old fighters to Ukraine: will use US fighters to "compensate" Poland: There is no decision at present
Red Star News reporter Hu Yiling
Edited by Guo Yu
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