The winning Yin Xiyue, his heart is higher than the sky, and the future is long
Takashi Hashimoto
During the South Korean general election, various dramas were staged, both the son of the ruling party candidate Lee Jae-myung was exposed, causing the dissatisfaction of the South Korean people, Lee Jae-ming's support rate fell by 10% at one point, and then it was re-stabilized; after that, the various conversations of the opposition party candidate Mrs. Yoon Seok-wook were also leaked out, and the dissatisfaction with the opposition party colleagues, the self-righteous image also made the voters feel dissatisfied, originally the role of the "first lady" in the presidential campaign was very important, but Yoon Seok-yue's wife did not appear once in this election. That's probably why. Before the election vote, the opposition candidate Yoon Seok-yue suddenly announced his "alliance" with another opposition candidate, Ahn Chul-so, and many people thought that such a "union" would prompt the opposition candidates to win a big victory in the election, but the results surprised everyone, Yoon Seok-yue won only by a slight margin of 0.7%, and the social form of South Korea's left-right division was not only not bridged in the election, but more distinct.
After Yin Xiyue won, many Chinese experts immediately believed that the conservative candidate Yin Xiyue's rise to power must be "anti-China and pro-American" and that China would immediately "face a catastrophe." Indeed, in the presidential election, Yin Xiyue once said that once he won, he would immediately go to Washington to meet WITH US President Biden, and would also come to Japan to meet with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. Unlike the ruling party candidates who refuse to state that they will first visit the country after being elected, Yin Xiyue has made no secret of his "pro-American faction" and must resolutely stand with the United States. Although China is not mentioned, China is a country that South Korea cannot ignore.
Such a "pro-US and pro-Japanese" style is consistent with the comments of many Chinese commentators, and to say that Yin Xiyue's election will immediately be detrimental to China, the author does not think so, Yin Xiyue wants to turn his face is not so easy. Because South Korea's enemy is not China (perhaps the United States thinks so), even South Korean conservatives believe that the current enemy comes from the north of the peninsula. At present, in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU and the United States did not take the opportunity to intervene in the situation in Ukraine, because Russia is a country with nuclear weapons, and once the United States and the European Union intervene, it is bound to trigger a world war, which is the reason why the United States and the European Union dare not challenge. Now in the northern part of the peninsula, the economic strength and military strength are inferior to South Korea, but 10 years ago, it actually possessed nuclear weapons, which is a pain point for South Korea and the United States, and dare not use the methods used in Iraq and the former Yugoslavia to "teach" the north of the peninsula. According to statistics, the northern part of the peninsula has 80-100 nuclear warheads, and this number increases by about 10-15 per year. There are 1000-1500 missiles of all kinds, of which 30-250 can threaten the US military bases in Japan, and 10 can even hit the west coast of the United States. This example also has to be taken seriously by the United States.
Considered by Japanese and Chinese commentators that the current South Korean president Moon Jae-in is a "pro-North" president, during his tenure, the north of the peninsula also launched a long-range ballistic missile "Mars 15", shocking the United States, because this successful launch, for the first time can sit down with the president of the United States on an equal footing to talk about things. In a sense, the United States acknowledges the fact that the North possesses nuclear weapons. At present, the northern part of the peninsula has not only fixed-launched ballistic missiles, but also mobile-launched ballistic missiles, and even submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Although South Korea has strong military capabilities and is also developing South Korean ballistic missiles and South Korean versions of Patriot missiles, the two countries are so close that they cannot be defended. Moreover, South Korea's anti-missile needs U.S. intelligence (heat source detection), and without early warning from the United States, South Korea is helpless.
So what makes South Korean conservatives unhappy with President Moon Jae-in is that he is unwilling to deploy the U.S. THAAD system, to join the U.S. missile defense system, or even to keep a distance from the Japan-U.S. military alliance, which is the basis for the improvement of South Korea's relations with China. When Yin Xiyue comes to power, he will definitely change the policy of the Moon Jae-in regime to keep a certain distance from the United States, which will have the possibility of "anti-China." Yin Xiyue once answered affirmatively in the election: It is necessary to change the "three noes" policy of not adding, not joining, and not participating in the previous regime. The Japanese side was very happy to hear about it, but at the time, I thought that the promise of the election should be discounted.
Yin Xiyue wants to change the practice of the previous regime, the first to react is not China, it must be the north of the peninsula, the result of such a change is equivalent to a military provocation to the north, once the military understanding reached between the Moon Jae-in regime and the north is changed, the conflict between the two sides is bound to re-erupt, the peninsula will also lose peace, and the impact on the South Korean economy is huge. On the day of South Korea's election of a new president, another launch vehicle (reconnaissance satellite carrying test) was launched in the north of the peninsula, and it is said that by 2030, five military reconnaissance satellites will be launched to focus on the movements of U.S. troops in South Korea and Japan. This move is to give Yin Xiyue's dismount, coming and going without being rude.
The author commented on the Korean election in the circle of friends today: In the past, the support rate of the South Korean president was around 10%, and the number of new crown in South Korea is constantly increasing, and the support rate of President Moon Jae-in has been maintained at about 45%. And Yoon Seok-wook's opposition coalition is not more than half of the number in the South Korean Parliament, and Yoon Seok-yue's election as president is also a slight advantage, and the support from the people is very unstable. Proposals for important bills cannot even be passed, and it would be difficult to pass such bills in Parliament.
South Korea has a lot of investment in Russia, so South Korea tries to keep a low profile and does not publicly criticize and stimulate Russia, but at the request of the United States, South Korea eventually joined the ranks of sanctions against Russia, which is equivalent to South Korea facing double pressure from the north of the peninsula and Russia, if Yoon Seok-yue also decides to stimulate China, the consequences are difficult to predict. China has warned the United States not to engage in a small NATO in Asia, the Moon Jae-in regime is also trying not to participate in the containment of China, and Yoon Seok-yue's adjustment of relations with China is equivalent to further intensifying contradictions, but also allowing South Korea to fully participate in the new Cold War of the United States, which makes South Korea's security on the side of the 38th line worrying.
South Korea constantly blamed China at the Beijing Winter Olympics, the South Korean media is also intensifying the situation, the author believes that this is the result of South Korea's unconvinced, constant comparison with China, South Korea believes that its country is more advanced than China, South Korea is the world's 10th largest economic power, China needs South Korea's investment, China needs South Korea's technology, so China will definitely give in to South Korea. Yoon's rising approval rating in the post-election period was largely related to the push of South Korea's conservative media. It is true that South Korea's economy is constantly developing, and it is second only to China's fastest growing country in the epidemic, but the South Korean and Chinese economies are complementary, and it is difficult for both sides to lack each other, such as south Korea's economic growth, trade from China has increased the most.
Yoon Seok-yue's adjustment of relations with China will not only have a big impact on the South Korean economy, but also south Korea will have to increase military investment, and now South Korea's military spending is about $50 billion a year, or will increase to $100 billion, which will greatly affect the lives of South Koreans, and the confrontation and tension on the peninsula will also intensify. In his State of the Union address at the beginning of the year, President Moon Jae-in completely blurred South Korea's position, did not openly stimulate Russia, expressed friendship with China, and maintained traditional relations with the United States, which was recognized by the South Korean people, which is why the outgoing president has 45% support.
Yoon Seok-yue openly said that he would play an important role in the U.S. camp after he came to power, but the author did not find him to participate in the Japan-led "free and open Indo-Pacific" plan, or to join any public conversations with the Japan-U.S.-India-Australia Alliance of Four-Nation Alliance, or a sentence, to speak harshly during the election, to forget after the election, he had to take into account the idea of half of the reformist voters in South Korea who did not elect him, and once he took the wrong line, the former president's fate was very tragic. The author asserts that in the first 1-2 years, Yin Xiyue should still be cautious and deal with the Issue of China cautiously.
Former name: South Korea's conservative presidential candidates are elected, and Sino-South Korean relations may enter a period of fine-tuning