Some people say: As long as Ukraine's former nuclear warheads are still there, even if it is only one-tenth of the original, Russia does not dare to attack Ukraine easily this time.
That makes sense!
More than twenty years ago, Ukraine personally destroyed a large number of nuclear weapons, destroyed them cleanly, and did not hide a single private goods.
Today, many people are blaming Ukraine's leaders for their brainless behavior.
However, Ukraine is really dumb to eat yellow--- there is bitterness can not say!
Their helplessness, except for some insiders, no one else will understand.
Everything must start from the collapse of the Soviet Union.....
1. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, how to deal with nuclear weapons?
The year 1991 was a very special year, a watershed in the world situation, because the Soviet Union collapsed.
The collapse of the Soviet Union made european and American countries a burst of secret joy, especially the Americans, suddenly relaxed a lot, that powerful opponent finally fell to the ground, since then, the "Cold War" has become a not far away history, the era of the United States is finally coming!
The Soviet Union is hanging, the "political heritage" must be inherited by the state, there is no doubt that Russia, as the absolute eldest son of the republic, inherited most of the Soviet legacy, and the second old Ukraine also inherited a lot.
An important event caught the attention of the United States and Russia, with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan declaring that nuclear weapons in their territory were part of their own.
The United States is a little worried, Russia is also starting to rush to the fire, these brothers are not careful!
On December 28, 1991, US Time, US Secretary of Defense Cheney said in an interview with CNN's "Saturday Newsmakers" program: The United States is very concerned about the huge nuclear weapons arsenal in the Soviet Union! It is not clear whether the CIS countries have made a proper arrangement for nuclear weapons! How terrible it would be if these nuclear weapons were to spread to countries that did not deserve them!
You can see the concerns of the US secretary of defense, they are worried that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of some countries, such as Iraq, such as Afghanistan, such as Iran, such as North Korea...
At that time, there were only five nuclear-armed countries on the surface, Pakistan and India were still quietly experimenting, and they were not announced to the public, and Israel was said to have, but it was never made public.
In the eyes of Europe and the United States and Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan must not possess nuclear weapons. None of the five permanent members of the United Nations agreed.
If one day, their economy is in trouble, it is not excluded that they will sell the nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons technology in their hands.
At that time, Ukraine, however, had more than 1,200 strategic nuclear warheads and more than 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads, making it the third nuclear power at that time.
If Ukraine does something, the world is too dangerous!
Americans think about it with great fear! This problem must be addressed.
How to solve it? Cooperate with Russia.
There are two key points to resolving the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the CIS: one is to control those nuclear technicians and not to flow into some countries that are trying to develop nuclear weapons;
Obviously, solving both problems is not easy, but the first one is easier to solve some.
But don't tie up these nuclear technicians!
Therefore, the United States proposed the establishment of a science and technology center in Ukraine and Moscow, bringing together the nuclear weapons technicians in the two science and technology centers.
In March 1992, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Russia held a meeting and issued a joint statement: the United States contributed $25 million, and Germany and Japan also contributed some corresponding money to establish a scientific and technological center in Russia to "host" nuclear technicians. (No news of the establishment of a science and technology center in Ukraine)
This solves the problem of people.
So, the first problem was solved.
So, what about the nuclear weapons of the three countries?
2. Destruction of Ukraine's nuclear weapons
The human problem is solved, and the problem of nuclear weapons must be solved.
With regard to the elimination of the nuclear weapons of Ukraine, the United States and Russia are in the same direction.
However, the roles played by the two countries are different, and the United States likes to walk on two legs, one is to give financial assistance and support, and the other is to use economic sanctions to coerce.
Russia has no money, so it only uses "energy sanctions" to coerce.
Under the influence of the world's two major countries, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan are trembling and worried, these two big guys, neither of them can afford to provoke!
But easily accede to the demands of the United States and Russia? How can it be.
Arms twisted around the thighs, and the three countries could only march forward with the trembling of the survival rules of the small countries.
On 31 May 1992, in Lisbon, Portugal, the United States, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan adopted the Lisbon Agreement, signing the Treaty on Nuclear Arms Reductions in phase I.
The treaty states that Russia could become a nuclear-weapon state, and three other countries would be completely eliminated and would later accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
On July 6, 1992, the CIS countries held a meeting together and adopted the Agreement on Russia as the Only Successor to the Nuclear Status of the Soviet Union.
In this way, from a legal point of view, Russia became the only successor to the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons, and the nuclear weapons of the three Ukrainian countries were either destroyed by themselves or sent to Russia for centralized destruction.
In July 1992, the Government of Kazakhstan ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Phase I. At the end of that year, the Russian government also approved the matter. In February 1993, Belarus also approved the matter.
Does it feel like something is wrong? Yes, the Ukrainian government did not approve ah, they have a huge dispute.
The president of Ukraine at the time was Leonid Kravchuk, who advocated the destruction of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and he agreed for three reasons:
First, the pressure given by the United States and Russia is very great, and if Ukraine is both offended, life will be very difficult. Instead of that, it would be better to destroy nuclear weapons.
Second, the President believed that nuclear weapons were not simple weapons, that there had to be a specialized industrial system for control, testing and reproduction, and unfortunately, russia was the core of the Soviet Union at that time, where there were but not in Ukraine. If it is to be established, the first must have technical personnel, the second must have money, Ukraine is very scarce, it is not easy to do;
Third, President Kravchuk believes that nuclear weapons have a "service life" and must be maintained frequently, and that Ukraine has a large number of nuclear weapons, which is very expensive.
In an interview with Ukrainian media that year, Kravchuk said: "We have nuclear weapons, but we don't have a system to control, test and reproduce, like monkeys with grenades."
It's pretty graphic.
Yes, a "small country" like Ukraine, with a large number of nuclear weapons, is too difficult. As the saying goes: Piaf is innocent, but he is guilty.
The president did so, but Ukrainian lawmakers thought it was "bad", and in April 1993, they jointly asked the president to keep Ukraine's nuclear weapons in the country.
After deliberations, in June 1993, Ukraine made the decision at that time: to reduce only 42% of strategic nuclear warheads and 36% of delivery vehicles. Furthermore, the Ukrainians decided to postpone the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty phase I indefinitely.
This made the United States and Russia anxious, and they almost kicked in the door, but they were resisted by Ukraine!
After that, the United States and Russia once again began to use both soft and hard, and Ukraine began to ask for a lot of prices, and the two sides turned the destruction of nuclear weapons into a business.
Russia said: We will compensate you! Ukraine is unwilling, the key is how much can Russia compensate? It's not much money! As a result, the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine began to soar sharply.
The United States began to use the "money strategy" and the "carrot strategy", on the one hand, promising Ukraine financial assistance, and signing a military cooperation agreement with Ukraine on the other hand (not the alliance), which made Ukraine less insecure.
At the same time, the United States warned Ukraine that if it insisted on possessing nuclear weapons, it would face huge cost problems and many uncertainties.
Good a "lot of uncertainty", you taste, you taste!
After several rounds of negotiations, under pressure from the United States and Russia, on November 18, 1993, the Ukrainian government ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty phase I.
It seems that the agreement was signed, but Ukraine still insists on the first step of cutting strategic nuclear warheads by 42% and 36% of its means of delivery, and if all of Ukraine's requirements for security and economic compensation are met, then the complete implementation of the complete "elimination of nuclear weapons" will be carried out.
On 14 January 1994, the President of Ukraine, the President of Russia and the President of the United States signed the Tripartite Agreement on the Elimination of All Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine, which also emphasized Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In April of that year, Ukraine began dismantling its strategic nuclear weapons.
On December 5 of that year, Ukraine, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and others signed the famous Budapest Memorandum (at this time, the president of Ukraine was already Kuchma), which stated: The United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom guarantee the security of Ukraine, no country can drop nuclear weapons on Ukraine, and any country bullies Ukraine, and the United States and Russia will clean it up.
Unfortunately, there is no agreement, what if Russia or the United States bullies Ukraine?
After the russo-Ukrainian war in 2022 began, Zelenskiy complained: What is the use of the Budapest memorandum from 28 years ago?
Ukraine's nuclear weapons were all destroyed, and the United States fulfilled its monetary promise, giving Ukraine two sums of money, the first of which was $175 million, which was compensation. In addition, $155 million in economic aid was given.
3) Ukraine has no nuclear weapons, but it is attacked by Russia
In the days when there were no nuclear weapons, Ukraine seemed to be light without nuclear weapons.
But, as they walked, they grew closer and closer to the West, and European countries and the United States became their beacons, and they became less and less blind to the big brother Russia.
Ukraine has repeatedly applied to join nato as a military alliance, and Russia has suffered again and again.
Finally, after the second color revolution broke out in Ukraine in 2014, Russia quickly took Crimea into its pocket and supported the Wudong region for a long time.
After Zelenskiy became the president of Ukraine in 2019, Russia stabbed his back like a man, because this "actor president" was bold, close to Americans and Europeans, and undisguised. Zelenskiy's interest in pacifying the Udong region and joining NATO is not generally great.
Finally, at the instigation of the Americans, Ukraine forcefully invaded the Wudong region.
Putin was furious, supported the independence of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics, and began his attack on Ukraine on February 24.
At this point, Ukraine discovered that without the support of nuclear weapons, they looked too thin in front of Russia.
If they still have some nuclear weapons, even if there are only a few dozen, I believe that Russia will not dare to enter the country to attack.
However, how ukraine really insists on possessing nuclear weapons, then the territory may not be invaded, and they may be subject to long-term economic sanctions, extreme poverty, and even various civil strife and division.