Hello hello everyone, I am an alliance, this issue to talk to you about the topic of the original god.
Speaking of small bottom and big bottom, many players can say two sentences, such as this time the Thor Heart Sea Pool, many players are struggling for the two-life Thor or Zero Life Heart Sea, the small bottom is crooked to the carved Qing / Di Luk is a normal thing, the big bottom out of the heart sea / Thor can also be accepted, but if a player is a big bottom out of the current prayer pool role or every time the small bottom is crooked carved Qing / Di Luke, do you think this is normal?
8000 did not draw a full life Thor
Take this Thor's prayer pool, I have a friend, after a bucket version of joining the original god, a hair out of control, see the role said to draw to full life, even before the strength of the eight-fold god son, he has drawn to full life, and after seeing my thunder god, it is kryptonite in advance 8000, ready to start with the full life of the god of thunder, we can calculate, 8000 is about equal to 100,000 rough that is, 630 draws, according to common sense, 85 draw a gold, full life Thor is still hopeful, After all, it is not always 8 draws gold, sometimes 80 draws, sometimes 40 draws come out.
However, he complained to me today, this time Kr 8000 did not have a full life Thor, only drew four lives, so a calculation, there is a difference of two, according to him, basically every time is a big guarantee to come out, once a double yolk egg, and then it became like this, although the full life of nine, but Xin Yan also out of a lot, mentality a bit collapsed, asked me if this is a normal phenomenon. 4 times the big guarantee out of 5 Thor, the script of the movie does not dare to write so, but it did happen, do you really have to believe that sentence [The European emperor and the non-chief are doomed, and the account has the distinction between Europe and Africa]? Let's look at another example.
80 draw gold VS ten consecutive gold
I also have a friend, just with the above this luck is very different, he often give me ten pairs of yellow eggs, not krypton gold to draw a bucket, walnut, ganyu and Zhong Li, etc., this time the thunder god's prayer pool, he is more than ten consecutive three gold, two thunder god + a Diluk, envy others, plus the previous version of the thunder god, he has now three lives, it is ashamed to say, he has been less than 1000 krypton gold from the beginning of the service, sometimes even the big moon card krypton, now only Wendy and Keli do not, the rest of the roles are in the pocket, On the other hand, I am a relatively normal player.
Almost every time the prayer pool is 80 gold drawn, sometimes the small bottom is crooked, sometimes several times in a row is not crooked, always wandering around crooked and not crooked, there is no bad luck and no excellent luck. Therefore, I should be able to represent 70% of the players' card drawing experience, and 80 withdrawals is completely normal. Therefore, my two friends and I constitute three types of players in the original gods [European Emperor, Non-Chieftain and Commoner], if we only look at the draw data of one of them, it is easy to come up with an extreme analysis result, for example, miha tour's card pool problem is very large, 8000 can not draw full life, retreat. Or maybe it's too easy, Kachi Heavenly Selection, ten consecutive to take the next life of Thor, who else?
Survivor bias
This requires the use of theoretical analysis of the [survivor bias] can be a good explanation of the original god's card pool, first of all, a brief description of what is the survivor bias [refers to people in the analysis / acquisition of data, only collect survivors' data, the final result will be contrary to reality], in the words of the original god card pool, when we analyze the card pool drawing probability, if only with the [European Emperor / non-chief / civilian] player's card drawing data to analyze, the result is inaccurate, always see the European Emperor ten consecutive three gold, You will think that all players are ten in three golds, always see the player's small bottom crooked carved Qing, you will feel that the carved Qing is the real Thor.
If we synthesize the card drawing data of [Ou Huang + non-chiefs + civilians], we will find that the card pool of the original god is very normal, 90 draw gold, the probability of small guarantee bottom crooked and not crooked is also about 50%, and the probability of the weapon pool being not crooked and crooked is also within the acceptable range. As for the "account inference" mentioned above, I think the credibility is not high, the player's luck will not always be good, nor will it always be crooked, maybe at a certain intercept point at a certain time, just met it, and then appeared in the eyes of the player, so look at the card pool of the original god, don't be so persistent, look at a little, Krypton gold = full of life, not Krypton We will slowly save the rough stone big bottom out, as for the seat of fate, how do you see it? Welcome to share your views, I am a league, we have a good time!