Oil prices have risen again! The time window for the fourth domestic oil price adjustment in 2022 will open from 24:00 on March 3. The cumulative increase in oil prices is 130 yuan / ton, which is converted into an increase of 0.10-0.11 yuan / liter.
According to international oil price news, on Monday, Eastern Time, international oil prices rose significantly, as of the close, New York April crude oil futures closed up $4.13, up 4.51%, at $95.72 / barrel, a cumulative increase of about 10.67% in February; Brent April crude oil futures closed up $3.16, up 3.23%, at $100.99 / barrel, a cumulative increase of about 13.14% in February.
According to statistics, the oil price in 2022 continued the rally at the end of 2021, and as of now, the oil price in 2022 has appeared in a "3 adjustment and 3 rise" situation. Many riders have reported that as of February 28, the oil price in northwest Xinjiang was 7.86 yuan / liter of No. 92 gasoline and 7.52 yuan / liter of Diesel No. 0; the price of No. 92 gasoline at a gas station in Central Henan was 7.84 yuan / liter, and the price of 95 gasoline was 8.38 yuan per liter; the price of No. 0 diesel was 7.48 yuan / liter.
▎ Oil prices rose four times in a row in the opening year of 2022, inseparable from the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict"
● Through a simple analysis, we can know that the rising factors in oil prices since the beginning of 2022 are inseparable from the following three points:
(1) Uneven supply and demand between weak production and strong demand: According to OPEC's latest monthly report, OPEC crude oil production in December 2021 was 27.882 million barrels per day, and the new crude oil production was only 166,000 barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency proposed that global crude oil demand increase to 3.3 million barrels per day in 2022.
(2) Insufficient crude oil inventories: According to the data, the US crude oil inventory before February was 416 million barrels, and the Cushing region (located in the United States, an important oil supply center in the Americas) inventory was 31.701 million barrels, down 1.661 million barrels and 5.605 million barrels respectively from the end of 2021, and has been maintained below the five-year average for more than half a year. Crude oil inventories remained low.
(3) Geopolitical/military conflicts: In January, there were a number of geopolitical and emergencies in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, West Asia and other places (the reorganization of the Government of Kazakhstan, the attack on important oil facilities in Abu Dhabi by Yemen's Houthi rebels, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, etc.), which continuously pushed up oil prices.
Industry insiders pointed out that the turmoil caused by the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" and the economic sanctions imposed by NATO on Russia are the main factors in the four consecutive increases in oil prices in 2022.
It is understood that Russia is one of the top three oil producers in the world and is also an important crude oil exporter. Moreover, Russia is closely related to Europe in the field of energy, and it is understood that nearly half of Russia's crude oil export destinations are in the European market, accounting for about one-third of Europe's total imports.
Now, if there is a further all-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the West may increase the imposition of oil-related sanctions on Russia, thereby further tightening the world's crude oil supply and forcing global crude oil prices to continue to "run high".
▎How to regulate domestic oil prices? Will it rise again this year?
The oil prices in our country are regulated by the relevant government departments, and the specific rules are: every 10 working days, and the adjustment range is linked to the international market price month by month. Within ten working days, if the international oil price rises cumulatively, the domestic oil price will rise with it; within ten working days, the international oil price will fall cumulatively, and the domestic oil price will follow the decline.
If the price of international crude oil adjustment corresponds to the domestic gasoline and diesel adjustment range of less than 50 yuan per ton, it will not be adjusted, and the oil price will accumulate to the next adjustment range.
Some people ask, if the international oil price has been rising, will the domestic oil price also "go crazy"? If the international oil price is particularly low, will our country's gasoline and diesel return to the "4 yuan era"?
The "ceiling price" of domestic refined oil products was set at $130 per barrel. However, the "Measures" stipulate that when the price of crude oil in the international market is higher than 130 US dollars (inclusive) / barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel is not mentioned or reduced in principle. This means that even if the international oil price touches the upper limit of $130 per barrel (inclusive), domestic oil prices may still be raised, but the increase will be reduced than the normal price adjustment.
When the international oil price is below $40 / barrel, the domestic oil price is no longer lower. This is the "ceiling" price and "floor price" of China's oil prices.
Will "oil prices" still rise in 2022?
Analysts predict that from the monthly difference in crude oil futures prices, the geopolitical situation and the traditional oil peak season is coming, and international oil prices are expected to continue to rise. To sum it up in one sentence, it is: "Look at the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the short term, look at global inflation in the medium term, and look at the changes in supply and demand in the long run." ”