How sincere is the EU to admit Ukraine?

【Reporter Connection】

Wang Huaicheng, a Berlin correspondent of Guangming Daily

On the fifth day after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy signed a document in the capital Kiev to apply for membership in the European Union. At a video conference of the European Parliament the following day, on March 1, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had proven itself and that "with us the EU will be stronger – that's for sure", asking EU leaders to prove that they are now standing with Ukraine.

European Commission President von der Leyen's words at the time also ignited expectations for Ukraine to join the EU as soon as possible. She told the media that Ukrainians "belong to us, they are a part of us and we want to be with them". At the European Parliament, von der Leyen announced that she wanted to continue taking the "next step", which of course referred to the next process of Ukraine's accession to the European Union. European Council President Michel also assured Zelenskiy that his request would be considered. The Belgian said the European Council was reprehensible for such a request.

Does this high-profile statement by the two EU leaders mean that Ukraine will soon become the 28th member of the EU? In fact, when EU leaders calmed down, they themselves knew they had written a hard-to-cash check.

A few days later, von der Leyen said the issue might be discussed at a summit of European leaders, "but now we are concentrating on ending the war." Although von der Leyen also said that she was positive about the prospects of Ukraine's accession to the European Union, in fact, she herself had no right to decide whether a country could join the European Union. Under the rules, the Commission can only prepare expert assessments for EU member states to determine whether candidate countries are eligible, which usually takes 12 to 18 months.

It is precisely because the prospects for Ukraine's accession to the European Union are so unrealistic that even German officials who take a positive stance on the enlargement of the European Union are annoyed by such promises by EU leaders. Rotter, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, warned: "We should not stir up false hopes, it will end in disappointment." Roth served as Minister of State for European Affairs at the German Foreign Office in the previous Merkel administration, where he was responsible for negotiating the accession of other countries to the European Union and understand what the requirements for the admission of candidate countries are. "There are no shortcuts here, no smooth roads," he said. On the contrary, joining the EU requires painful political and economic reforms, the building of the rule of law and the fight against corruption. ”

German Foreign Minister Berberk has also expressed skepticism about Ukraine's prospects for joining the European Union. Everyone knows, she said, that "joining the EU is not something that can be done in a few months." On March 3, German Chancellor Zollz said in an interview with German Television Station 2 that now is not the time to consider Ukraine's accession to the European Union. The EU is a community with rules, and accession to the EU is preconditioned. He said that the top priority is to prevent the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict from escalating.

Perhaps because Ukraine has political will and is caught in a serious conflict with Russia, Ukraine's steps to join the European Union may be faster, but in the eyes of Brussels, it is almost impossible to specialize in Ukraine's accession to the European Union. The EU prides itself on treating every country "equally" in strict accordance with precise rules. At present, the countries that have been listed as candidates for membership by the EU include Turkey and four Western Balkan countries: Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro. The above-mentioned five countries have been waiting for many years to join the EU, but they have not yet become full members. Ukraine is not even a candidate at the moment.

So how long does a country usually have to wait to be "admitted" to the EU? Take Croatia, the last to join the European Union, as a reference. Croatia formally applied to the EU in 2003 and did not formally join the EU until 2013. Now, even Poland and Slovenia, which are the strongest supporters of Ukraine, only believe that the prospect of Ukraine's accession to the Union is in 2030.

According to the 1993 EU Copenhagen Standards, EU candidates should have the following conditions: stable institutions that guarantee democracy, the rule of law and the protection of minorities; Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine was far from being able to meet these demands. The European Union, for example, has repeatedly accused Ukraine of corruption. Some NGOs rank Ukraine's level of corruption at 122nd out of 180 countries and regions, ranking the lowest among all European countries.

At present, there is far no consensus on whether the EU should expand, especially since France and the Netherlands have for years demanded that the EU reform before admitting new members – this is only for small states in the western Balkans, not for Ukraine, which has more than 40 million inhabitants. Currently, in the wealthy countries of Western Europe, politicians are afraid to even say on the campaign trail that they support the admission of new members of the EUROPEAN Union, whose citizens believe they are likely to spend huge subsidies for many years to come.

Moreover, each of the 27 EU member states has veto power not only over whether or not to eventually admit candidates, but also over when negotiations will begin. Bulgaria has used its power to obstruct the EU from initiating accession negotiations with North Macedonia. At present, Ukraine is largely supported only by Eastern European countries that are not rich, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. These countries are more geopolitical in their call for "Ukraine's immediate accession to the European Union." France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Germany are actually skeptical.

With the outlook not promising, why are von der Leyen, Michel and many Eastern European countries still cheering up the seemingly unrealistic hopes of Ukrainians? Milan Nich, a senior fellow at the Institute of The German Institute of Foreign Affairs, pointed out that in the face of the current frustrating situation, Ukrainian and European leaders have no better choice than to make some political gestures. Some analysts believe that perhaps Zelenskiy chose to join the EU at this time when there was no hope of joining NATO, in order to remind the EU to give greater support to Ukraine in the conflict. After all, the EU's Lisbon Treaty stipulates that "in the event of an armed attack on the territory of a member state," other countries will provide "all assistance and support within their means."

(Guangming Daily Berlin, March 8)

Guangming Daily ( 2022-03-09 16 edition)

Source: Guangming Network - Guangming Daily