The talks with Venezuela this time are an old routine for the United States to engage in international games.
Venezuelan President Maduro speaks at a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 12, 2020. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Text | Xu Lifan
According to reports, on March 5, local time, Juan Gonzalez, senior adviser for Latin American affairs at the US White House, made a rare visit to Venezuela and was received by Venezuelan President Maduro and Vice President Rodriguez, and the two sides discussed the possibility of the United States relaxing sanctions on Venezuela.
For nearly 20 years, Venezuela has been the place where "anti-American fighters" have emerged.
Former Venezuelan President Chávez is known for being anti-American. And so does the current president, Maduro. In 2018, after Maduro was re-elected, the United States did not recognize the election results, declared Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido as Venezuela's "president", and imposed severe economic sanctions on Venezuela. As a result, the two countries severed diplomatic relations, and even for a time there was a cloud of war.
Now the United States has suddenly laid down its body and taken the initiative to contact the Maduro government, in fact, there is only one purpose: oil.
Sanctions on Russian oil have led to a surge in international oil prices
Affected by the news that the United States and Europe are considering banning the import of Russian oil, the international oil price has become a "wild horse" in the past few days. On March 7, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London opened violently and climbed to $139.12 / barrel at one point. This is the highest point since the 2008 international financial crisis.
Since 2018, Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia in oil production and ranked second in the world. If the oil war does start, it is clear that international oil prices may still soar. It is reported that some futures traders are already betting that the international oil price will climb to $200.
Rising international oil prices have hit Europe far harder than the United States. After the "shale oil and gas revolution", the United States has now firmly ranked as the world's largest oil producer.
But at present, if the United States wants to build a stable alliance to sanction Russian oil, it needs new alternative sources of oil - Libya and Iran are alternatives.
However, the Civil War in Libya is not over, and the current oil production is only about 1 million barrels per day, which cannot fill the gap previously in Russia (10.52 million barrels per day, 2021 data).
Although Iran has sufficient production capacity, Iran is also a country subject to Western oil sanctions, and the prospects for the Iranian nuclear negotiations currently under way are unclear.
In this case, the United States will focus on Venezuela, and of course no longer mention whether the Maduro regime is "legitimate" or not.
The average gasoline price rose to $4.01 a gallon that day, the highest level since July 2008, showing vehicles passing through a gas station in Millbrae, San Francisco Bay Area, according to data released by the American Automobile Association on March 6. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
The sanctions imposed on Venezuela have not had the desired effect of the United States
Venezuela's oil reserves exceed Saudi Arabia's, ranking first in the world, but the oil products are not as good as Saudi Arabia's, and the sulfur content is high. At its peak, Venezuela produced 3 million barrels of oil per day. But in recent years, under U.S. sanctions, production has come down at a low rate of just over 400,000 barrels per day.
The Biden administration now chooses Venezuela for two reasons. First, sanctions against Venezuela are Trump-era decisions, and the Biden administration can blame them. Second, the US sanctions on Venezuela for more than 3 years have not achieved the expected effect.
Venezuela's inflation was once staggering, but maduro's government has not been stagnant, let alone replaced by an opposition leader recognized by the United States; on the other hand, Venezuela's oil industry has survived its most difficult moments and is now improving.
Although Venezuela has a lot of oil, but its refining capacity is poor, in recent years, Iran and other countries have repeatedly provided assistance to Venezuela, mainly gasoline and thinners.
Thinners are an important means for the United States to sanction Venezuela. Previously, Venezuela relied almost entirely on U.S. diluents to dilute heavy oil.
With Iran's help, Venezuela's refining capacity has increased and oil production has gradually recovered. OPEC's December 2021 Oil Markets Monthly Report shows that Venezuela's production rose to more than 800,000 barrels per day in November last year, double the same period in 2020.
With the partial recovery of Venezuela's oil industry, annual GDP growth has also turned positive.
Russia is certainly a global player more likely than Venezuela to challenge the United States. Therefore, this "bowing head" and Venezuela talks are the old routine of the United States in engaging in international games.
View of the Amuai refinery in Venezuela on November 17, 2016. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
"Empathy" is a bit harder
It is worth noting that at the special emergency session of the General Assembly held on March 2, there was no Venezuela among the five countries that opposed the Ukraine-related resolution. But that doesn't mean maduro's administration will turn in favor of the U.S. position.
In fact, the first round of consultations between the UNITED States and Venezuela on March 5 did not produce any results. There are reports that the U.S. demand is to ease sanctions on Venezuela in exchange for Venezuela's oil exports. Where possible, the United States also wants Venezuela to come forward to condemn Russia.
It should be noted that the Trump administration has previously imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on Venezuela, including freezing all assets of the Venezuelan government in the United States and freezing $7 billion in assets of Venezuelan state-owned oil companies. The Trump administration has also imposed sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, including Maduro, and even brought criminal charges against them in U.S. courts.
Therefore, in the first round of consultations, Venezuela's response is to lift sanctions first and then talk.
That won't be easy for the Biden administration. Against the backdrop of the midterm elections looming, "weakness" is the accusation the Biden administration fears the most.
The previous tough posture of the United States against Venezuela is in stark contrast to the current soft body, and it also reflects the usual sanctions used by the United States, which are often full of short-sightedness and utilitarian calculations.
Beijing News special writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Edit | Li Xiaoxiao
Intern | Velyuil
Proofreading | Chen Diyan