According to analytical data from the U.S. Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), from last fall to the beginning of this year, The Tropical Middle East Pacific's Nino 3.4 region has been more than 5 consecutive months with the SST index exceeding the La Niña threshold of -0.5 degrees Celsius, meaning that the Phenomenon of La Niña, which has been occurring since the second half of last year, has been going on for long enough for NOAA to determine a La Niña event, which is also the second La Niña in the 2020s, which constituted a bimodal La Niña process during the period 2020-2022.
First, La Niña is weakening
Although the current sea temperature analysis data of many meteorological agencies show that there is still a wide range of cold water in the tropical Middle East Pacific in early March, and the cold sea water even spreads to parts of the western Pacific west of the daily line, but for now, La Niña has indeed reached a weakening moment.
For example, NOAA analysts believe that La Niña may be maintained throughout the northern hemisphere spring, but the intensity is further attenuated, and gradually transitions to a neutral state between May and July, that is, a state that is neither La Niña nor El Niño. The Australian Met Office's model projections also suggest that the tropical Pacific could return to neutrality in the following months.
Second, the Pacific Ocean has a new situation, and after La Niña, is it El Niño?
As the surface of the tropical Middle East Pacific continues to be widely cold, the water masses in the deep Pacific Ocean have begun to change - monitoring data from the Australian Meteorological Service show that in the depths of the Pacific Ocean, the strength and significant weakening of the cold water masses that have previously caused La Niña can continue to be strong, and in late January, a large amount of cold water can be maintained below the surface, but by late February, these partial cold water masses have rapidly weakened, and even some areas are still warm, which is characteristic of the significant increase in sea temperatures in the depths of the region.
Although the current monitoring data show that the surface layer of the tropical Middle East Pacific Ocean is still widely cold, the sea temperature in the key area of Nino3.4 continues to be low, or la Niña state, but the obvious increase in deep water temperature means that the cold water of the surface layer has been "weak", and there is no more supply of cold sea water in the follow-up, and the cold sea area will gradually heat up, which is also one of the arguments that many predict that La Niña is about to weaken. Then some netizens also have to ask: Will la Niña be el niño after la niña?
Third, el Niño has certain possibilities, and the key is in the spring
Although many people believe that La Niña and El Niño should alternate, the past double La Niña phenomenon has shown that it is not alternate. However, some forecasts have pointed out some of the later El Niño trends – for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast believes that water temperatures in key areas of the tropical Pacific will continue to rise after April, and may begin to approach El Niño (pink zone) after April.
The Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast points out that April will be a key January, when La Niña may clearly fade, and the possibility of El Niño will emerge again in the future.
For example, the forecast of the Continental National Climate Center points out that the SST in the key area will rise rapidly after April and will quickly turn to higher, which is a sign of El Niño. Of course, April-May is known as the "unpredictable obstacle" period, when ocean and atmosphere coupling is weak and forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are low. Overall, with or without El Niño, La Niña is indeed close to the end of the road.