Original: Sharp/Text
The so-called one-on-one "heads-up" of the people rarely appears in the great power game, and most of them are group confrontation and multi-thread operations. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict begins, the Kremlin should realize that it is theoretically impossible to be just a conflict between two countries.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered its ninth day, a huge hidden variable began to emerge, and Russia ushered in the most complex and intractable test outside the conflict.
On March 4, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö visited Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden.
The legendary president, who was elected to the Finnish Parliament at the age of 39 and has done finland's justice, finance, parliament and president one by one, changed his previous calm political attitude in Washington, D.C., and chatted with Biden about words that are destined to shake Europe and the world:
— The White House released the news that the two presidents discussed the significance of NATO's "open door policy".
Although for those familiar with international politics, the meaning of Sauli Niinistö's words is actually very clear and very explicit, that is, Sholi Niinistö is taking the initiative to ask whether the United States will accept Finland's membership in NATO.
But because of the "professional convention" of the two heads of state to communicate with each other, Sholi Niinistö did not make it particularly clear. Until an interview with the reporter of the Fox News Network in the United States, he could not hold his breath, or completely straightened the car rut:
" Our situation has changed, both in Finland and in Sweden. Based on the survey results, for the first time we see that most people support this (joining NATO). We are now open to discussing this issue with our national parliaments. ”
Judging by the various magical performances in the workplace since Biden became president, the 74-year-old Sauli Niinisto is more like testing whether the 80-year-old Biden is really as magical realism as the outside world rumors.
But surprisingly, perhaps Finland's attempt to join NATO is too powerful, and it is estimated that Biden's sleepy right eyelid jumped up and said the most admiring and rigorous diplomatic rhetoric to Biden so far:
"Finland is an important partner of the United States and a strong defense partner, a partner of NATO, especially when it comes to stability and security in the Baltic Sea region. ”
When discussing international relations and diplomatic approaches in the future, Biden's Romeo-style diplomatic response may be seen as the pinnacle of diplomatic rhetoric.
But when this passage is placed in the context of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Biden's hidden intentions still pose two unprecedented challenges to Russia, which is carrying out "special military operations" in Ukraine:
Can Russia accept the membership of another Nordic country with a common border of 1,248 kilometers?
If not, can Russia withstand two "special military operations" at the same time?
Fatal Temptation – Invitations to membership from the world's largest military organization and the only superpower
Those familiar with European history may be surprised by Finland's sudden and violent historic transformation.
You know, as the world's seven permanent neutral countries, Finland has always maintained enough friendship with Russia, and even the current president, Sholi Niinistö, is regarded as the Western leader who knows Russian President Putin best, and is even called "Putin understander" or "Putin sympathizer".
Since Finland joined the European Union in 1995, Finland has always played the role of mediator in the game between the European Union and Russia for decades.
About a month and a half before this meeting between Sholi Niinistö and Biden, NATO also carried out the most intensive exhortation work in Finland's history.
On January 12 this year, the first Russian-NATO council meeting in nearly three years was held at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
But the meeting collapsed completely.
After four hours of fruitless talks, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg first released a smoke bomb saying:
"Despite their differences, it is a positive sign that all 30 NATO allies and Russia are sitting at the same table to discuss substantive issues." ”
However, at a press conference the next day, on January 13, the NATO secretary-general made a provocative speech without hesitation:
- "Finland and Sweden are very close partners. They are partners who can (can) enhance opportunities. We've worked with them, we've practiced, we've trained. They meet NATO standards in most areas. They have very well organized and managed defense and security agencies. So, in many ways, of course, they are very close to NATO in all respects. So in that sense, if they decide to apply, they can do it very quickly. But at the end of the day, if they want to apply, it will be a political decision that must be made by Sweden and Finland. ”
" Once Sweden and Finland decide to join [NATO], they can join very quickly. ”
The paradox of geopolitics is that Ukraine is eager to join NATO but NATO has never let go, while Finland and Sweden, which have never mentioned joining NATO before, have been invited by NATO in such a high-level way.
Not only the SECRETARY-GENERAL OF NATO, BUT IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICROSOFT NATIONAL BROADCASTING (MSNBC) ON THE SAME DAY, US SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN ALSO ECHOED THE NATO SECRETARY-GENERAL:
" NATO's doors are open, and if countries want to join, they have the sovereign right to decide whether they want to be members or not, of course, if they meet the criteria and NATO members agree." Yes, NATO's doors are open. It's a basic principle that the Russians are trying to get us to back off, and we're not going to do that. ”
And on Jan. 11, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Newland said in a more explicit way:
" If Finland and Sweden want to join NATO, the United States has been happy to consider their application to join NATO. ”
In such a short period of time, one of the world's largest military organizations, the world's only superpower, has issued an almost irresistible "gracious invitation" to Finland, which is a fatal temptation.
Wise rejection – a "special Finnish military operation" that disappears into obscurity
Objectively speaking, nato and the United States' joint invitation to Finland can penetrate the psychological defenses of most countries, after all, it is the world's largest military organization, and the security guarantees that it may obtain are the dreams of every country.
Finland, however, did not hesitate.
On 14 January, the day after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made that provocative speech, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto made it clear through a conference call after attending the EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting:
"Finland has not discussed joining the organization with NATO and will not be about to embark on such a project, and Finland's security policy remains unchanged. ”
" Finland currently has no plans to join NATO. ”
Finland's flat refusal was allegedly criticized by members of the European Union, but no more spilled over.
However, exactly 40 days later, the fighting in Ukraine has given these EU friends a deep understanding of what national wisdom is.
Of course, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö broke out in a deep cold sweat for himself when he estimated to be broadcasting the situation in Ukraine on the day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24.
This cold sweat turned into a blessing the next day, because time had already given the answer.
On Feb. 25, Biden said after talking to NATO leaders that NATO remains open to European countries that share common values and seek to join the group.
On the same day, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova publicly warned:
" If Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia will be forced to respond. ”
In this way, the European political stage expounded to the world the profound judgment of the famous Russian actor, director, and theatrical theorist Alexeyev Stanislavsky in his magnum opus "The Self-Cultivation of Actors":
- "There is a kind of neurotic actor who can think of mobilizing his nerves and stimulating the mood of playing." This creates a hysterical and morbid expression of the stage, but its performance is empty..."
In the final analysis, an actor's self-cultivation is certainly no match for the political wisdom of a parliamentarian or minister.
When Finnish President Sholi Niinistö leaves office a few years later to deliver his resignation speech, he will surely hold "The Self-Cultivation of Actors" in his hand and passionately share the knowledge he has gained from the book:
——1. Discover the real object on the stage and communicate effectively with it.
2. Identify the wrong object and the wrong communication, and try to avoid it.
From this, he insisted that Stanislavsky was absolutely misunderstood by the world and that he should be a great European statesman.
Here, Sharp Dare borrows the domineering quotes of the Cosmic Success Learning Super Master Brother And shouts:
- "Applause for understanding!" ”
The 48th earth-shattering reversal – stemming from a poll of 1382 participants
From arrogantly and resolutely refusing to join NATO, to taking the initiative to fly to the United States to find President Biden, who is full of magic realism, begging for a request to join NATO, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö spent only 48 days.
On the European political scene, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö is by no means a "neurotic actor", and his attitude represents that the attitude of the Finnish state is undergoing a subversive change:
— Withdraw from the world's seven neutral powers and become a military ally.
You know, throughout the brutal Second World War, Finland basically defended the bottom line of its neutral country, even if it paid a bloody price.
How could Finland, which has seen such a big world, change its century-old national policy because of the low-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
What really happened in those 48 days?
All the devils are really hidden in inadvertent details.
Remember what Sholie Niinisto said when he met with Biden, that's what he said:
" According to the survey results, for the first time we see that most people support this (joining NATO). ”
This is the only factual reason in all of Sholi Niinistö's discourse. So, the key point is, what kind of investigation did it find that deeply affected this outstanding European politician and even the Finnish people?
Sharply tracked the results of the investigation and found that there were many meaningful details.
The first is significant: media polls influence Finland's centennial national policy
This so-called investigation, which concerns the centennial national policy of a permanently neutral country, is actually just a news independently released by the media.
The news originally came from the Finnish Broadcasting Corporation, which said poll results showed that 53 percent of Finns thought Finland should join NATO.
What is even more interesting is that this survey is not a direct poll by the Finnish Broadcasting Corporation, but an indirect "commissioned investigation".
However, the poll results were then used by the Western media as the "basis of public opinion" for Finland's accession to NATO.
The second implication is that the news was widely disseminated around the world from the BBC in the UK a week later
The poll was released on Feb. 23, and for some reason the Poll in Finland went viral at the time.
But in fact, for Finland, this is extremely significant and disruptive news.
Because this is Finland's poll on NATO membership, for the first time in history, the result of half approval is extremely subversive and newsworthy.
But it was the news that was only widely reported by the BBC on March 1, a full week later.
The third implication is that only 1,382 people took part in the poll that decided to subvert national policy
The full result of the Finnish poll was that 53 percent thought Finland should join NATO, 28 percent opposed it and 19 percent said they couldn't be sure.
But significantly, the big poll, which almost swayed Finland's national policy, was only 1,382 people surveyed.
This kind of long-scale poll is the same as the BBC poll in Ukraine after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 28.
According to the BBC, a sociological panel conducted a poll of 2,000 Ukrainians and found that 91% of respondents supported Zelenskiy, compared with only 6% and 3% without saying a word.
In such a war-torn country where transportation and communications are intermittent, how did the omnipotent BBC poll 2,000 people?
What makes Sharpy extremely touched is that presumably the members of the "sociology group" who shoulder the heavy responsibility should basically come from the Marvel movie "Avengers", such as Iron Man, Captain America and the like, I don't know if there are such shocking characters as Thor and Hulk.
Whenever I think of them, they always have some wet eyes, what a group of superheroes, ah, actually for zelenskiy's poll support, regardless of personal safety, deep into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to conduct polls.
What is even more curious is whether the 2,000 Ukrainian people include people from Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea and other Ugandan regions, and whether it includes more than 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees who have fled.
Presumably, when Ukrainian refugees who fled to Europe with their families and mouths met the "sociological group" that surveyed the support rate of the Ukrainian president on the way, they would be in tears, tearful, and then proudly become the "91% zelensky supporters".
Chills – Finnish "public opinion" surging overnight
Perhaps the Finnish government began to feel that there were too many inexplicable mysteries behind the polls, which was attended by only 1382 people, so the Finnish government had to carry out an urgent and politically incorrect crisis public relations after the polls were freshly released.
After much deliberation, Prime Minister of Finland Sanna Marin said:
" Finland will not rush to decide whether to apply for full membership of NATO, and Finland's foreign and security policy is recommended by the government, reviewed by the president and finally decided by parliament. ”
Many parliamentarians in Finland have also felt this political cold wind and have expressed their political views in various forms:
" Decisions should not be made on the basis of hasty public opinion, but must be made in the best interest of protecting national security." ”
The Office of the President of Finland was also quick to issue a public statement:
"In this grave crisis, it is particularly important to remain calm and carefully assess the changes that may occur in the past and in the future, as is the impact on our national security." ”
In fact, the Finnish government has long been subject to this wave of unknown origins.
Soon after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a petition entitled "Whether a referendum on joining NATO should be held" was widely circulated on the Finnish Internet.
Within a short period of time, the petition had been signed in support of the 50,000 signs of Finnish law, forcing the Finnish parliament to discuss it.
But the prime minister, who is responsible for his country, resisted the pressure and said:
- "The question of whether Finland is militarily allied or not will not be discussed in Parliament. ”
In fact, when Finland's so-called "public opinion" is so irrational and constitutes an exaggerated hedge against the rational governance of the Finnish government and the national strategy, Finland, as a permanent neutral country that has seen the world for a hundred years, has realized that it may be experiencing some of the things that its Eastern European neighbor Ukraine has experienced.
In October 2004, in the Ukrainian presidential election, the extremely pro-American opposition candidate Yushchenko ran for the election, and the United States sent hundreds of electoral experts and media experts through non-governmental organizations to conduct various polls and propaganda for Yushchenko.
In this way, Yushchenko, who ran as an independent candidate, miraculously fell behind the then Prime Minister Yanukovych by only a few percentage points in both rounds of voting, and even only 2.85 percentage points after the second round of voting.
Such a result still cannot satisfy Thanos behind the scenes, so the crazy "public opinion" rises again, and the public opinion offensive comes from the mountains.
Immediately after, tens of thousands of young Ukrainians gathered in Kiev's Independence Square, and a "color revolution" of purple and red entered the climax.
Yushchenko then became president, causing political crises every year of his five-year term and reducing true poll support to single digits.
War and Peace – a magnificent performance on the big stage of world politics
Because of Ukraine's previous experience, the wise Finnish government appeared in just 40 days in the country, and the 74-year-old Finnish President Sholi Niinistö did not hesitate to personally fly to Washington, D.C., to send the sleepy Biden eye drops that he had previously missed.
It has to be said that as an evergreen tree in European politics, Sholi Niinistö's timing choice is extremely tricky.
At a time when Russia announced that its nuclear strategic forces had entered a state of special readiness and the United States postponed the already scheduled test of the "Minuteman-3" intercontinental ballistic missile, Sholi Niinistö sent biden the eye drops that Biden had long desired before - to join NATO.
Sure enough, Biden, who likes to present the style of magic realism in a half-dream and half-awake way, has said the most sharp and rigorous diplomatic rhetoric for Biden so far:
After all, Biden is also an old actor on the world political stage, and Stanislavsky's book "The Self-Cultivation of Actors" must have been repeatedly studied, and this passage in the book Biden must be familiar:
" You can't create something that even you don't believe in, that even you think is unreal." ”
In fact, Saury Niinistö and Biden, both know very well deep down in each other, according to the North Atlantic Treaty and related treaties:
Even if Finland decides to join the contract now, it will need to carry out a series of lengthy steps such as drafting a domestic draft, deliberating and passing it in parliament, submitting an application to the NATO Council, and initiating the review process by NATO.
Of course, with Finland and NATO really making up their minds, none of these procedures will be a problem in the end. But the real questions are:
When Finland, a country with an extremely important strategic position, joins NATO, will Russia give good wishes with flowers in hand?
The current Ukraine has already answered this ultimate question.
Among other things, if you want to join NATO, one of the most basic conditions is:
- There can be no ethnic conflicts or border disputes in the applicant country.
Unfortunately, Finland and Russia have a 1,248-kilometer-long border.
You know, such a long border line, even the printers who printed the map, can't guarantee which point is not clearly printed, or printed a little off.
What is even more unfortunate is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a bit of perfectionism in his treatment of territory, and he is still a perfectionist "map control", he once said publicly:
- "Russia is big, but not an inch of land is superfluous. ”
In order to explain this line full of literary and dramatic beauty, Putin translated it in straightforward realist language:
" There is no negotiation on territorial questions, only war. ”
" Those who do not give Russia a way back, we will not give him a way to live." ”
From the perspective of excellent line appreciation, Putin's words are far more artistic and emotionally impactful than those when he announced that Russia's nuclear strategic forces had entered a state of special combat readiness.
U.S. President Joe Biden is just a little sleepy when he is old, but when he encounters these passionate and artistically appealing lines, he will always listen and appreciate intently and with a bright eye, never dozing.
Frankly and objectively, if you look at it from this point of view, on the european and world political stage, Finnish President Sholi Niinistö and US President Biden can both win the Cannes International Film Festival, the Venice International Film Festival, the Berlin International Film Festival and the Academy Awards in the United States.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, on the other hand, can only bend behind them to see if he can try to impact the Golden Whirlwind Award for Ukrainian cinema.
Life is like a drama, all by acting skills - the world political stage, but also so.
Reviewed above
◆ Millions of Ukrainian refugees are on the border, Russia and Ukraine have a strange tacit understanding, and the evil consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict spill over to Europe
◆ Sudden: Belarus closes the Ukrainian border, Ukraine's connection with Eastern Europe is interrupted, and the Iron Curtain falls
◆ Technical Deep Reading: Reveal why the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not declared war on each other so far
◆ Can Russia and Ukraine really play a "fighting landlord" at the poker table? From the data, we can see the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian game
◆ Embarrassing sanctions, Germany SWIFT buys Russian natural gas, energy influences the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
◆ Ukraine's 100,000 troops are timidly fighting to help Japan, and Japan may face off again with Russia after 116 years
◆ Tearing up Chinese contracts, sanctioning Chinese companies, Zelenskiy made a wrong bet, and Ukraine slid into a black hole
◆ The Sino-Indian border conflict once again strongly reminds that the 2,000-kilometer border line determines that China needs a stable India
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