Analyze the losers of this conflict between Ukraine and Russia from a financial point of view

First of all, let's talk about Ukraine with the smallest losses, why Ukraine is placed in the smallest position, this should be viewed from the overall economic strength of Ukraine.

In the industrial sector, due to production suspension and logistics and transportation restrictions, it is basically a stop stage at present. However, the losses in the western region were relatively small, and in addition, Russia did not carry out a major attack on the non-military field, and the recovery after the war will be relatively fast. However, the direction of key industrial zones is unknown, and there will also be a certain blow.

In terms of ports, Odessa and Kherson still have a chance to take them back according to Russia's peace requirements, and as long as Ukraine does not offend Turkey in the later period, shipping can also be restored. Reconstruction is certainly costly, but the city has relatively little loss and can be operated quickly.

In terms of agriculture and population base, the slow recovery is naturally the population, and the loss of population caused by a large number of refugees is difficult to recover in a short period of time, because many of the refugees who have already gone to other countries are willing to return or not is a problem. It also depends on the future foreign strategy of the Ukrainian government.

If Ukraine decides to take the neutral route, the lost personnel will naturally slowly return.

If Ukraine decides to continue on the dead line, the lost personnel will certainly try by all means not to return. This route will also most likely offend Turkey, leading to the paralysis of the sea route.

Judging from the international assistance received, this money can still account for a large proportion of the reconstruction of the country. Ukraine will also continue to manage the EU and the United States to continue to ask for money for this reason, plus take a neutral line in the later stage. The arms and aircraft that the EU has now promised to aid can also be sold for a lot of money. If Ukraine succeeds in entering the EU this time, more weapons and material assistance will come.

In the words of shareholders, from the perspective of the loss rate of the national economy and the amount of holdings that can be obtained from international fixed investment, Ukraine will be the party that has greatly increased its performance, which is theoretically possible.

Of course, if Ukraine really demands the cancellation of foreign debt because of the war, this profitability will be bowed to by the world.

The second loser is Turkey, whether it is the recent lira circuit breaker or because of the dispute between Ukraine and Russia, the business on the sea side will certainly be affected, and Turkey's turk itself is also dragged down by the overall decline in European stock markets.

The most important thing is that Turkey has no place to go!

Russia will say that Ukraine is responsible for this and go to Ukraine.

Will Ukraine say send money? Send weapons? If I don't send it, I'll fight now and hang up first.

The United States and the European Union will certainly express regrets, and then you Turkey should do what to do.

According to the words of shareholders, this conflict turkey is due to the bearish reasons of individual stocks in the sector, resulting in a passive decline in the decline of the entire sector. To put it bluntly, we all know that there is nothing wrong with you, but you all fall, and you also come down.

So Turkey is implicated in the loss there is, aid and benefit is not.

Further back is Russia, which is a real injury, and if Russia eases up, it will take a long time and the results of negotiations to support. As for the degree of loss, it can be imagined that the sanctions of various countries can be imagined, and there are many analyses on the Internet that do not say more, and more is not original. There must be words that collide.

Let's start with a brief analysis of the first peace talks, and then let's talk about who the big losers are.

Ukraine's participation in the peace talks was to drag on, and as a result, a large amount of weapons aid continued to be beaten.

Russia's participation in peace talks has been arbitrary, and the result is that it will continue to fight while waiting for the next peace talks.

Here is the main analysis of Russia, because it is unexpected. There is no one-shot deal of either agreeing or disagreeing.

First of all, if Russia wants to end the war in a short period of time, the negotiations are just a formality. The first negotiation is over, and the second will not be considered.

Secondly, this move by Russia seems to be waiting for something. There was no rush to negotiate the outcome, and a dragging word was also used. It is reasonable to say that the offensive side delays, which is more negative than positive. Russia understands this truth. Who will have the greatest impact on the extension of the negotiation time? Russia's current economic situation can be said to have been smashed to the end, the worst has emerged, and there is no bearishness. Who will be dragged down by the passage of time?

There is only one goal, the European Union.

From the beginning of NATO's overtures to Ukraine and the encouragement of Ukraine to increase its weapons and equipment, the stock markets of EU countries have already appeared on top.

On the one hand, crude oil and gold are going all the way up, and on the other hand, European stocks and the U.S. stock market across the Atlantic ocean are falling more than each other.

Now that the negotiations are about to take place again, who will pay for the massive outflows and losses of European stock markets during this time? The economic downturn triggered by the stock market is a big problem for countries. Freezing and misappropriation are two concepts, and there are still rules for capital markets. Like Switzerland, a permanently neutral country, after freezing Russian funds, it is about to face a large number of funds fleeing, because Switzerland has destroyed the brand of permanent neutrality. Ten thousand steps back, even if Russia fails, how much meat the EU can pick up from the United States during the peace talks, the EU is sure that it has calculated itself, and the result is very embarrassing.

From a support point of view, the current situation in Ukraine is a stock that has been continuously reduced by major shareholders, with no minimum but lower. All the aid is like a margin call that can't even be seen. The EU is equivalent to a fixed investment, seeing the fall, but also knows that it will fall, but it is constantly investing money in. After all, regulation will not send a letter to a continuous decline.

From the perspective of future development

Ukraine enters the European Union, and Russia then withdraws.

Refugees would be withdrawn from various countries, but the EU would need to finance Ukraine's reconstruction, and in order to increase Ukraine's military strength, the EU would need to support Ukrainian weapons. But Ukraine has just come out of the war, and it can only use aid, and ukraine cannot buy it, because Ukraine has no money.

Because Ukraine in this case is still a sovereign state, the EU has no meat to eat.

Second, the Russian victory.

All investment in Ukraine, all clearance. Not a single one. All of Ukraine's previous external debt was borne by the EU countries themselves. All costs incurred by refugees arriving in Europe for their stay are borne by the EU countries themselves.

According to the words of shareholders, st. ST's direct delisting, not on the third board, not even a shell left.

Third, Ukraine and Russia continue to drag, Ukraine wants to resist, and Russia is not in a hurry

The money and weapons that should be supported still have to be supported, the refugees must be received, and the European stock markets that should fall continue to fall. Due to the proximity, the European market is also affected by all walks of life.

So the longer Ukraine and Russia drag on, the greater the LOSS of the EU. German and French may be better, the bottom is thick. But some small EU member states may not be able to hold out.

The EUROPEAN Union is not blind, how Ukraine was sold by the United States to its own mind, how much money it threw out of its own family count. At present, the best results can be obtained is to take a little brother who has just been reorganized by the war, industry and mining areas may not necessarily exist, and it is still a second pillar that may turn around if the service is not good.

So the result of this conflict is that both the EU and Russia will suffer great economic losses. Russia can still achieve some results anyway, a little bit of a return to the original thing. The European Union is giving itself and serving the United States.

Because the U.S. has nothing to lose, the White House is now busy dealing with the truck army and interest rate hikes.