Zhitong Finance APP learned that Galaxy Securities released a research report that the association released the production and sales data of passenger cars in January 2022: retail sales in the month were 2.092 million units, -4.4% year-on-year, -0.6%; wholesale sales were 2.172 million units, +6.8% year-on-year, -8.2% month-on-month; production was 2.059 million units, +10.4% year-on-year, -16.5% month-on-month. Sales of new energy vehicles have been disturbed, and the growth rate of plug-in and mixing is beautiful. The prosperity of the head's own brand continues to rise, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), Great Wall Motor (601633.SH) (02333), Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238.SH); the parts industry is recommended to pay attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automobile (600741.SH), the scarce target of lighting controllers Keboda (603786.SH), and the intelligent driving active and passive safety supplier Joyson Electronics (600699.SH).
The main views of Galaxy Securities are as follows:
First, the sales data review
The Association released the production and sales data of passenger cars in January 2022: retail sales in the month were 2.092 million units, -4.4% year-on-year, -0.6%; wholesale sales were 2.172 million units, +6.8% year-on-year, -8.2%; production was 2.059 million units, +10.4% year-on-year, -16.5% month-on-month
Second, the advance of the Spring Festival holiday led to a year-on-year decrease in the number of effective production and marketing days in January, and the epidemic situation in local areas affected the terminal performance
In January 2022, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.092 million units, -4.4% year-on-year and -0.6% month-on-month, mainly due to the advance of the Spring Festival holiday to January, the number of effective production and sales days decreased year-on-year, and the superimposed Tianjin epidemic disrupted terminal sales. With the gradual strengthening of production and batch sales in recent months, the overall market supply has picked up, helping manufacturers to actively welcome the New Year, and the improvement of the retail end can be expected. From the structural point of view, (1) january luxury car retail sales of 290,000, year-on-year -5%, an increase of 18% month-on-month, traditional luxury cars in the new year growth trend is stronger; (2) independent brand retail 940,000 units, +11% year-on-year, +1% month-on-month, independent brand head enterprises performed strongly, in the new energy market to obtain a significant increase. (3) Joint venture brand retail sales of 860,000 units, year-on-year -17%, month-on-month -7%, of which the Japanese share of 19.2%, year-on-year -2.2pct, the U.S. share of 8.2%, year-on-year -1.2pct, Ashkenazi share of 23.5%, year-on-year -2.3pct.
Third, the sales of new energy vehicles have been disturbed, and the growth rate of plug-in and mixing is beautiful
In January, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 347,000 units, +132.0% year-on-year, -27.0%; wholesale sales were 412,000 units, +141.4% year-on-year, -18.5% month-on-month, and the downward trend of wholesale and retail sales was basically the same as that of January 2021, and it is expected to be mainly related to the high base in December of the previous year due to centralized delivery at the end of the year. In January, the domestic new energy retail penetration rate was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points year-on-year, but it decreased month-on-month. The new energy passenger car market is diversified, and BYD's pure electric and plug-and-mix dual-drive vehicles have consolidated the leading position of its own brand new energy; the traditional car companies represented by the SCO Group and the GAC Group have performed relatively prominently. There are 11 companies with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units, of which BYD (93,000 units), Tesla China (59,000 units), and SAIC-GM-Wuling (40,000 units) performed the most prominently. From the model point of view, pure electric wholesale sales of 333,000 units, a year-on-year +130.4%; plug-in hybrid wholesale sales of 79,000 units, +202.1% year-on-year. From the structural point of view, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 32.0%, luxury vehicles are 22.9%, and mainstream joint ventures are only 2.7%. In January, the sales of high-end electric vehicle models and low-end electric vehicles both performed well, of which A00-class wholesale sales of 105,000 vehicles, accounting for 32% of pure electric; A0-class wholesale sales of 51,000, the share reached 15% of pure electric; A-class share of 22%, remained stable; B-class sales of 101,000 units, down 14% month-on-month, accounting for 30% of the share, slightly improved.
Investment advice and equity pooling
The prosperity of the head's own brand continues to rise, and Galaxy Securities recommends continuing to pay attention to Changan Automobile (000625.SZ), Great Wall Motor (601633) (02333), and Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238.SH); the parts industry recommends paying attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automobile (600741.SH), the scarce target of lighting controllers (603786.SH), and the intelligent driving active and passive safety supplier Joyson Electronics (600699.SH).
Risk warning: the risk of car sales not meeting expectations; the risk of the industrial chain caused by chip shortage.
This article is compiled from the WeChat public account "China Galaxy Securities Research", author: Yang Ce, Zhitong Finance Editor: Xie Qinghai.