The knockout round in IEM Katowice will officially start tonight at 22:30, and HLTV has released a relevant forward-looking analysis. They believe that all 6 teams have a chance to finally reach the top.
Although the giant is injured, it is easy to shake the mountain
NaVi was considered a dominant presence at the beginning of the year: the undisputed king of CSGO, the defending champion of major, the world's number one player, and perhaps even the best player in history , the home of s1mple. Their performance in the second half of 2021 was so dominant that many were discussing the possibility of another Astralis-like dynasty coming.
2022 has put them to the test. Despite advancing to the spring finals, NaVi lost one BO3 and two BO1s at the BLAST Spring Tournament, compared to three BO3s in total in the second half of last year. Later, the CIS giants who entered Katowice with questions directly won the semi-finals of the knockout round through three consecutive wins, effectively answering some of the questions.
There are currently two mainstream views of NaVi, the first is that they are not at their best, so the current performance is enough, and the second is that even if the natural winner is currently in a small downturn, the other teams are still unable to cope, and only the on-stage competition in the knockout rounds can pose a threat to them.
Even if the slight numbers of s1mple are lower than the previous peaks, even if the electron Nic and b1t are not stable, and even if Boombl4 is isolated due to the coronavirus panic, this team is still a puzzle that is difficult to solve. And their offline BUFF is also unparalleled. The reality is that NaVi, which has not reached its best form, is still a favorite to compete for the title.
A young warrior in search of glory
Gambit has cemented its T1 team status in 2021, winning many honors in many competitions and even marveling resilience in adversity. At the beginning of 2022, Gambit easily took the Crown of Funspark's final battle in front of BIG, Astralis and Entropiq. Coming to IEM Katowice, Red Star rose all the way to today after losing to NIP in the first round.
The current Gambit is particularly intimidating on the offensive side, and their mid-game command and execution show a huge advantage that is absolutely unattainable in the current CT version. Their map pools also seem to have returned to their level in early 2021, and dust2 and Vertigo's problems no longer bother them.
Under the overall excellence, the fiery state of the two star players is even more reassuring. The strong performance of Ax1Le and sh1ro makes Gambit the only team to sit in the top 10 of the 2 Rating players in this competition.
The map pool is deep, the star players are online, the attacking side is fierce, and the Gambit advantage is even unattainable by their nemesis NaVi. If they can continue to make progress offline, Red Star may be able to get rid of all the doubts about them and lift the trophy of the first major offline event champion.
The rise of the Danes
The EPL S13 title stalled at the end of last year, and although Heroic also used the Major Final Four to prove that he was not inferior, there is still a distance from the best performance of the online era. Pinnacle's winter loss to K23 was like a ridiculous episode that kicked off their journey this year, but before they got to Katowice, they seemed to have solved these trifles.
Like Gambit, Heroic's attacking side is the most impactful in the current tournament, using full preparation and diverse tactics to make opponents exhausted every round. There have been criticisms that they rely too much on stavn's play, but the overall play against VP has made these arguments self-defeating.
The current problem with Heroic is: first, whether the offline Heroic can cross the final threshold that has blocked them for a long time; second, whether the cadiaN sniper can cope with the snipers of the s1mple, sh1ro, broky and James levels. In any case, one thing is certain, if the Danes can find a way to take advantage of stavn's kill and protect the sniper environment of the idea brother, then there is no reason why this dark horse should not be black to the end.
The advantage of overall depth
After Major replaced SANJI with FL1T, many people questioned the rationale for removing a support player who sacrificed himself. In the face of the results, these voices have been eliminated. The offensive side of the VP after the FL1T join has been greatly improved, changing the passive situation of YEKINDAR's difficult to support. And their original technical level has made their defenders solid and reliable.
At the start of the year, VP took the top spot in the ESL February Challenge without missing a picture. They managed to extend the momentum to Katowice, except for the final seeding battle to Heroic, where VP judged the performance of both teams to attract some attention.
The current VP has some problems with the map pool, mostly around Vertigo. They lost the building twice in this tournament, and they also ended 2021 with the loss of this picture (Note: referring to the IEM winter game lost to Vitality). Considering that this was previously a strong chart for VPs, this is not a good sign. Also, VP doesn't have a superstar big enough to compete with other knockout opponents, but the Overall performance of the Polish White Bears is quite stable, with an average Rating of more than 1.08 for four players.
If VPs can continue to play to their depth advantage, maintain the stability of the team, continue to build on the strong momentum of the attack, and fix the problems of Vertigo, then there is no reason why they will not continue to walk on the stage of Katowice.
The embodiment of ambition
G2's 2021 can be defined as a "success" at other clubs, but this ambitious club is clearly not satisfied, and the offseason changes are enough to prove it.
At present, the new lineup of G2 is in a state of flux. NiKo often switches to rampage, huNter-remains stable, and m0NESY has also played a dazzling play that matches his heat.
However, there are currently worrying instabilities in this team. In the BALST Spring Tournament, G2 first beat NIP 16-6, and Figure 2 overturned the opponent with a big flip (22-19). Coming to Katowice, they started 16-2 to crush Fnatic, but they were mired in the last two pictures and were eventually let one chase two. In the battle over qualifying places, they lost to Team A before breaking into the next stage with a staggering score of 32-6 from two maps. This instability also exists on map pools, including Inferno and their strong map Mirage.
At the end of the day, G2's new line-up is still in the self-exploring phase, which makes them the hardest to quantify in this knockout round. Still, even with the stability in question, NiKo, huNter-and m0NESY have enough firepower to get them to the final. Once you get there, anything is possible.
Overcoming environmental barriers
Throughout 2021, FaZe is a stable but difficult to go further Top10 team. The team sought to upgrade in the offseason, and the aging Olaf was replaced by superstar Ropz. In the new season, the international team has had success in the BLAST Spring Games, especially the outcome of losing first and winning against Vitality. Moreover, Ropz's star stats have made the team full of hope at the beginning of the year.
In Katowice, Ropz's COVID-19 positive results forced the team to play with substitutes, and Rain was also patronized by the virus. Fortunately, JKS did his class well, and the team successfully entered the knockout round. It is worth mentioning that FaZe in adversity once fought NaVi for three hundred rounds in the final round of the group stage.
After ropz returns, FaZe's killing efficiency has been significantly improved, and it will become a team with a very high danger factor. Broky in the embedded superstar condom, 1.31 Rating has surpassed s1mple and others. Of course, this has something to do with the quality of his snipe. Together with Twistzz, FaZe has the envy of any team in the world.
At present, it is still questionable whether the rain that tested positive for the new crown in the group stage can compete with FaZe. If the veteran can't play, it's hard to expect too much from the Galaxy's performance in the knockout rounds. But then again, who says FaZe with fairly good jks must not be able to achieve something? FaZe has the ability to inflict kills, deep potential, and sophisticated command, so let's see if they can beat the odds and break through the shackles!
HLTV's combat ranks are as follows: