One
The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for several days.
Putin's battle plan should be to threaten the Russian army with great victory, force the Ukrainian government to sign an alliance under the city, get terms favorable to Russia, and then let the new Ukraine be Russia's strategic buffer area.
How much you can swallow, I'll talk about it later.
By constantly encouraging the Ukrainian government, army, and people to surrender, he was fighting psychological warfare and pushing the plan to be phased out.
We, the melon-eating masses, thought that Russia could use the fastest speed to invade Kiev and capture Zelensky, and then convene an aftermath conference to support the new pro-Russian government, clean up the neo-Nazis, and expel NATO forces from Ukraine.
Unexpectedly, after the initial panic, the Ukrainian government army actually began to organize resistance, and from the video transmitted back to the country, the Ukrainian road was left with a lot of vehicles, tanks and artillery destroyed by the Russian army, and the loss was more than expected.
Moreover, the entry of the Russian army into Ukraine caused a fanatical national sentiment in the western region, and the Ukrainian government in turn took advantage of this national sentiment to shoot ordinary citizens and encourage them to fight street battles with the Russian army.
Russia sent a request for negotiations, inviting the Ukrainian delegation to Belarus to negotiate, and it is not known what the outcome will be, if it does not get favorable terms, the blitzkrieg is in danger of becoming a protracted war.
Unless Putin is determined to destroy the Ukrainian government and its military at all costs, or to accept the good and relax the terms of negotiations, Russia risks falling into the quagmire of war.
Such a result, it is estimated that Putin did not expect when he decided to go to war, Ukraine, which was hit by the first wave of Russian troops, did not expect it, the European and American countries that were ready to abandon Ukraine in the early stage did not expect it, and we who ate melons did not expect it.
Two
After a few days of the Russo-Ukrainian War, European and American countries also reacted, changed their posture from the sidelines, and began to provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine.
For example, the United States is preparing to send seven thousand people to Germany on the grounds that it will guarantee the security of NATO allies, prevent Russian military operations from continuing westward, and provide $600 million in aid to Ukraine, of which $350 million will be used for defense needs.
The United States supplied the Ukrainian Navy with drones to guide Ukrainian warships in attacking russia's Black Sea Fleet.
The Netherlands will supply Ukraine with 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
Germany will supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger-class surface-to-air missiles, and Chancellor Schoeltz has publicly said he will do everything he can to support Ukraine and fend off Russian troops.
Britain's foreign secretary has publicly declared that Without destroying Russia's economy, Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity will not be restored, and London will not be at ease. He also said the sanctions would have immediate consequences for Russia's wealthy elite.
Biden said more directly, the United States now has two options, one is to go to war with Russia and start World War III, and the other is to sanction Russia.
Their implication is that sanctions against Russia will create insecurity among Russia's wealthy elite and lead to a continued outflow of capital and elite talent.
At that time, Russia had no capital and no talents, and the future of the country was locked.
The NATO Secretary-General announced an invitation to Finland and Sweden to an online emergency summit on the situation in Ukraine, and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that if Finland has national security problems, it is ready to join NATO.
Because Russia's offensive against Ukraine has produced great shock and deterrence to European countries, in order to prevent becoming the next Ukraine, they will move closer to the United States for protection.
Before the outbreak of war, Russia had no way back.
Until now, the European countries have no way back.
From beginning to end, the United States also has no way back. Remember the wind direction in Taiwan a few days ago, worried that there are examples of Russia and Ukraine in the front, and when Taiwan is liberated in the future, the United States and European countries will also stand by and watch.
This worry is the worry of the United States.
A world empire wants to talk about credit, saying that if you kill your whole family, you will kill your whole family, and if you are rich and prosperous, you will be protected by your glory and wealth, and once you don't count, who will follow you in the future?
Therefore, in order to maintain the credibility of the empire, the United States began to support Ukraine to a limited extent, and mobilized European countries to resist Russia, not only for Ukraine, but also for other little brothers.
But in the end, whether you can keep it or not, that is another matter, the United States can completely shirk responsibility afterwards, I gave you the opportunity, you are not useful.
Generally speaking, the purpose of the United States to "unite" Europe through Russian military prestige has basically been achieved, but compared with the early days of the war, the war has left the "original" track of Russia's blitzkrieg against Ukraine.
Three
Now that the war is off track, the world will become unpredictable.
For Russia, no matter how long the follow-up negotiations will last, at least it must first win an absolute victory on the battlefield with a lion and a rabbit, so that the Ukrainian government and army have no chance of overturning.
The longer the war drags on, the more unfavorable it will be to Russia.
This should be seen from two aspects.
Politically, in the early days of the war on February 24, 150 Russian parliamentarians and officials signed an open letter condemning Putin's "invasion" of Ukraine as an unprecedented atrocity and with disastrous consequences.
They also said in the letter: "The invasion order was personally made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and we firmly believe that he did not have the authorization of the Russian people." ”
But at the high-level meeting just before the battle, all the participants supported Putin's battle plan against Ukraine.
This shows that Putin, who has governed Russia for 22 years, has enemies at home, and these enemies want to use war against Putin.
If the war ends quickly and achieves brilliant results, Putin can threaten victory, suppress rebellion at home, and further integrate Russia's forces.
If the war drags on, Putin's prestige will be greatly damaged, and the enemy's strength will soar.
In Russia, which relies on strongmen, when strongmen fade their aura of prominence, it may not be a good thing for the country.
Economically, Russia's GDP in 2021 is 1.775 trillion US dollars, and in 2021, the GDP of jiangsu province on the mainland will reach 1.804 trillion US dollars, it can be said that the economic level of Russia, the world's major country, is not as good as that of a developed province on the mainland.
At this level of economy, the degree of difficulty in fighting a protracted war in Ukraine can be imagined.
Moreover, the Russo-Ukrainian War has come to the present, and the United States and the European Union, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada and other countries have issued statements announcing that Russia is prohibited from using the SWIFT international settlement system.
SWIFT is the safest and most important cross-border payment system in the world, excluding Russia from SWIFT, it cannot be settled in US dollars, which is equivalent to severing Russia's ties with world trade in the context of dollar hegemony.
Back in 2014, Russia's former finance minister calculated that without SWIFT, Russia's GDP would have been reduced by 5 percent.
It was just a prediction at the time, and now it's come true.
Then Russia's future economic trade will definitely be greatly affected, and the economic volume in 2022 will most likely not be able to maintain the current level.
If the war can be ended quickly, with rabbits quietly transfusing blood, there is still room for recovery for the Russian economy.
If the war is mired in a quagmire and Russia's Ukraine becomes the Soviet Union's Afghanistan, then Putin's rush to the crown is to create a blood draw machine for Russia.
By that time, Russia's economy will be sluggish, people's lives will become more and more difficult, government officials and parliamentarians will intensify their attacks on Putin, and if there are non-governmental organizations in Europe and the United States to stir up trouble, russia and the Soviet Union will break out color revolutions, it is also possible.
If you really want to get to this point, Russia will be in trouble.
Four
The longer the war drags on, the greater the impact on the mainland.
The mainland is a non-aligned country, but in the context of the UNITED States' encirclement, it is actually the only option to unite with Russia to resist the United States as in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
Now that the sanctions imposed by European and American countries are essentially an all-round isolation of Russia, we can also understand that the Cold War in the 21st century has officially arrived.
Unless Russia has an absolute military victory, there is no chance to save this bad situation, and if it is mired in war, Russia's fate is that of North Korea, which is now blockaded.
At that time, the two opposing camps of Russia and the United States have formed, and which side we tend to is actually a dilemma.
In the general direction, we must stand with Russia, but economically, we cannot do without the globalized market.
In the early days of the founding of the country, it was able to turn to the Soviet Union because the Soviet Union had strong national strength and could use ideals and rubles to form a socialist camp and confront the capitalist camp led by the United States.
But now Russia does not have the national strength of the Soviet Union, let alone the camp led by itself, but it may get the Soviet script.
If the mainland is to turn to Russia's side, instead of receiving favorable support, it will also need to constantly transfuse Blood to Russia, drain national strength, and affect our dream of great rejuvenation.
But if we do not support Russia and stand with Europe and the United States for the sake of the globalized market, then after the problems of Russia as mentioned above, we will be the next to be encircled.
In the Cold War pattern of the 21st century, no matter how we choose, we are actually wrong and have to pay a heavy price.
Therefore, let's hope that the war will end as soon as possible in the way of "Great Victory for Russia", and if it does not end, the world will go in a direction unknown to us.
And that unknown world, for all of us, is gray.