Analysis of the second phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War
- The real difficulty of this war.
Since the beginning of the war, all kinds of contradictory news have been flying all over the place. For a moment the Ukrainian army was defeated in an instant. For a while, the Russians had not taken a tenth of Kiev's garbage for a day and a night.
This situation is not so much the result of the online propaganda war between the two sides, but rather the lack of military knowledge of the public. Of course, the self-media that eats a lot of traffic meals is also as much as possible which tone is exaggerated to choose which one to spread. They are most afraid of not being able to catch everyone's attention.
On the question of the combat effectiveness of the Uighur government forces
Since the fight in 2014, SWA government forces and Nazi vigilante groups have been trained with the help of British and American military instructors, weapons assistance and tactical training. It is clear from this war that the will to fight is not Chinese as vulnerable as the internet has long been advertised by the self-media.
It's even possible to play some nice tactical group counter-attacks and ambushes.
Over the years, I have often seen domestic military fans on the Internet, mocking the garbage of British and American instructors every day, the garbage of British and American officers and technical team members, and the scum of playing security warfare. Under their guidance, once the Russian army attacked, Siu would collapse at a touch.
What are the results now? Is it funny to look back at the faces of those who said that the SWAC army was more garbage than the terrorists in the Middle East?
Questions about the performance of the Russian army and the real difficulty of the war
After the first wave of successful reports of the Russian army, the domestic Internet has risen the theory of quick victory, and it is not a general quick victory, but a quick victory directly measured in hours.
Isn't that ridiculous?
I even saw that the Russian army that said that it could not defeat Kiev for forty-eight hours was garbage, the level of the FEET of the Us Imperialists. I said do you know what the difficulty of attacking Kiev means?
The Ukrainian Defence Forces are a regular army backed by a fairly functioning state apparatus, and it is a mechanized force.
Which time with the Wudong civilian armed forces is not an armored fighting vehicle + large-caliber mortar field gun? Is this comparable to the waste of West Asia and Africa?
Moreover, ukrainians from the era of Cossack founding hundreds of years ago to the bloody war of division, to The Second World War, so many people joined the Soviet Red Army, and their family military traditional culture is also very strong.
The era of wearing open crotch pants touched the real gun.
Such a mechanized regular army, supported by artillery, individual heavy firepower, defending in a huge city full of concrete high-rise buildings, who can fight down in forty-eight hours?
If the Russians can do it, then the US imperialists will not even be able to match the feet of the Russian army.
The difficulty of capturing Kiev is unimaginable to the average person.
Since World War II, it can be said that for decades, human beings have not really fought in the modern city of one million people.
The only closest are the Russian attack on the Chechen capital and the U.S. army in Baghdad.
But the former is sparsely populated and is far from being a megacity. The latter's government and military had abandoned their organization and organization before the U.S. military entered, and became a terrorist attack by scattered soldiers.
So for decades, humans have not experimented with the experience of fighting tough battles in a megacity of millions of people scattered throughout modern concrete high-rises.
Not to mention that Ukraine had integrated armored brigades in its encircled forces in kiev, and before the last time the human side attacked the big cities defended by integrated armored brigades, the Year of the Monkey?
Therefore, the Russian army could not take Kiev for forty-eight hours, or even three or five days, without any surprise, and it was completely representative of the level of the Russian army.
Not to mention that the Russian army had to try to avoid killing civilians, and it made it more difficult to attack the giant city to the level of hell.
The three-dimensional shooting horizon formed by tall buildings and complex underground streets, the anti-tank area between the houses and the anti-aircraft positions, and any window between the rows of connected buildings may shoot out individual heavy firepower.
Moreover, this kind of defensive force is not a scattered soldier who plays with car bombs, but a regular army with a staff team behind it and professional scouts in the front.
When Americans recall the battles in Iraq and other places, even in the face of the so-called big cities in West Asia that can only be counted as the size of China's third-tier county towns, they have already cried bitterly, and described the memories of the battles there as hell.
What about Kiev, which is so big as a horse?
Therefore, at this stage, the performance of the Russian army is actually completely excellent. This is a large-scale war of annihilation that has not been seen for many years, with an offensive cross-section spanning hundreds of kilometers from north to south, and multiple arms and complex coordination.
In the minds of many people, this kind of long-range fire strike error outside the 100-kilometer field of view should not exceed ten meters should be the level of the US military. Or the U.S. military and the People's Liberation Army.
But the Russian long-range fire strike proved that there was no substantial generation difference between itself and the US military.
It's just that Ukraine is not at all as papery as the domestic Internet propaganda of the past few years.
second. Reports of a regional exchange of fire in Kiev from yesterday to this morning and the repulsion of Russian troops.
This is a very normal performance. Just as I said before that the Ugandan armed forces failed to break through the main Ukrainian defense line on the Ukrainian front, nothing can be explained.
Remember that the previous Antonov airfield was not, but it was eventually recaptured by the Russian airborne company and armored troops.
If the Russian army launched a real offensive battle in the first few hours of the siege of Kiev, then Putin and his Russian officer corps and staff team would be too wasteful.
I give you a prelude to a modern system of large-scale offensive warfare that can be considered created or carried forward by the Russians. It's called - Fire Reconnaissance/Combat Reconnaissance.
The Russian tradition of large-scale warfare began to develop during World War II a well-established system of fire reconnaissance, in which small-scale tactical offensives were launched by company-level units.
This allows for a more comprehensive parameter of the enemy firepower within the offensive target as a powerful complement to contactless reconnaissance.
During World War II, experienced German veterans would anticipate the arrival of a large-scale offensive from soviet reconnaissance.
Of course, the fire reconnaissance of that year was larger and could reach the battalion and regimental level. Modern warfare may be sufficient in platoon levels.
No matter how weak the Ukrainian army is, there are also considerable mechanized troops in kiev and internal affairs forces that may be more capable of combat.
Add that to nearly three million people and countless concrete buildings. Its strength can be seen as a war beast. (Kiev's defensive capabilities were particularly frightening when the Russians could not destroy every building with heavy firepower like Grozny.)
In the face of such a large enemy, it is certain to launch fire reconnaissance at the first time. You think that satellites, drones, telescopes and spies can figure out kiev's defensive firepower system, which is a fool's dream!
However, small-scale squads or platoon-level firepower were combined with reconnaissance, and they would not have been able to hold the places they had captured, and it was normal for them to be repelled by the Ukrainian army with numerical superiority and heavy firepower.
It took at least a few reconnaissances to have enough information for the Russians to launch a local offensive.
It was just that the Ukrainian army repelled some fire reconnaissance and became the inspirational material for its Ministry of Defense and the president to release good news.
Third, where has Putin's determination to fight the war come?
There is no turning back from the bow, the east water cannot flow backwards, and at this point, no matter what, it is necessary to annihilate those Nazi vigilante groups and overthrow the current Ukrainian government. Otherwise, Russia would have lost to its grandmother's family.
How many days has the war started now? Ukraine is a large country with heavy industrial capacity, tens of millions of people, hundreds of thousands of square kilometers.
If Putin had not come up with the cost of fighting with enough intensity for more than a month, he should not have launched this attack. Does Putin look stupid?
My judgment of the Russo-Ukrainian war began with the initial prediction that the war would begin, and the first estimate was that it would take the Russian army 2 weeks to achieve its tactical demand to crush the Ukrainian army.
Considering that the Tactics of the Ukrainian Army seemed to be targeted at hiding in urban settlements nearby, (note that Ukraine was poor, but the population urbanization rate was extremely high), I could predict a truly decisive victory for the Russian army for more than two weeks.
Fourth, if I were Putin, how would I go about winning the real victory?
It is impossible for the Russians to destroy all the buildings that are supported by face-to-face shooting with heavy fire as they did in Chechnya. So what to do if the Ukrainian army hiding in the residential areas can concede defeat or lose basic combat effectiveness and take them down with low damage?
First of all, the big tactical direction will not change. The two main theaters, the pincer encircle Kiev, as well as Kharkov, Mariupol or Melitopol facing north and south.
What determined the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops and Nazi vigilantes in the east was the in-depth offensive of the Russian army near Tan one set and nearly eight sets.
Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrosovsk, Pavlosk, and Krasnograd. These four places should be the main task of these two armies.
And, of course, behind it was Poltava, which was probably the territory of the Guards Twentieth Army.
The Russian army only needs to control the traffic arteries and feeders in these five areas, set up military checkpoints and strike control line groups with its digital artillery as the core. And launched drones, helicopters and reconnaissance aircraft in coordination with satellite surveillance.
It formed a substantial encirclement of all the people and horses of the Wudong Ukrainian Army.
Modern warfare is different from World War II, the main logistics nodes of roads and railways are truncated, and military checkpoints are set up on all roads, and the encirclement can be regarded as completed by not allowing arms and materials to pass.
If the Ukrainian army brigade dares to break away from the shelter or residential areas, they will be beaten out by helicopters, ground attack aircraft and drones. There will also be armored digital artillery and combat vehicles to clean up.
At present, the encirclement of Kiev has been basically completed. It is said that the Russian army has landed some airborne troops in the direction of Lviv, which I use as a group of red dots in the figure.
They estimated that the core task was to detect and summon long-range fire strikes as much as possible to prevent Western arms reinforcements from the Polish-Ukrainian border from being transported into kiev. Even if it is disguised in a civilian car.
Modern warfare is unlikely to completely halt the flow of civilians and civilian goods, or it will cause humanitarian disasters. Especially in Kiev, a large city with a large number of civilians. You do not allow ordinary civilian goods to enter and exit, which can easily lead to uncontrollable humanitarian disasters.
While Lviv is taking over NATO armaments in large quantities, the Russians on the right flank of the attack on Kiev must further advance to expand the depth of surveillance and reconnaissance and improve the success rate of interception of the inflow of their military aid.
Of course, further air raids on the Lviv region are inevitable, but I do not think that the Russian army will need to send a large number of men and horses to capture Lviv.
Therefore, the key to the victory of the Russian army is to control the flow of military materials.
Because the battle in the streets is very terrible, but the Russian army is the advance planner of this war of annihilation. For the scale of the war, the intensity of the war, the intensity of the war, the Russian military top brass is the side with a spectrum in mind. Think about the previous pipeline troop transportation exercise, maybe the US intelligence department saw this and determined that it was a war of annihilation.
The Ukrainian government and military may not have had sufficient estimates of the size and intensity of the war. Moreover, the comprehensive governing capacity of the Ukrainian government and the military industry seems to be very worrying.
In my estimation, with the intensity of the current engagement, the scale of firepower, and the fact that the first wave of Russian air strikes has already inflicted considerable damage on Ukrainian military installations, the warehouses have caused considerable damage.
Therefore, I boldly estimate that even if the Ukrainian army shrinks the residential areas to engage in the so-called procrastination tactics, as long as the density of the exchange of fire is maintained every night, its combat materials will definitely not be able to support the beginning of a week, and two weeks are outrageous, and it is estimated that it can support more than a week.
So if I were Putin, I would still insist that the assault group, especially the two assault groups on the Eastern Front, which had not yet reached the depth of their intended mission, be cut off as soon as possible along the Dnipropetro-Rosfussk-Krasnograd line of communication.
Then the Ukrainian troops in each city's residential areas did not adopt a large-scale offensive mode, but handed over to professional street warfare tactical special forces to go in every night to consume each other's ammunition, medicine, and artillery materials.
In this way, there will be a good control over Russian casualties and civilian casualties.
For some important, but not very large towns, it may be possible to attack in the short term, such as Slavyansk.
As I suppose, because of the threat of ambush tactics of small squads of the Ukrainian army and the ambush tactics of sporadic armored vehicle belt combat groups, the Russian army should also be closed in the next three days at the latest in the next three days.
After that, Chechens and other troops were allowed to conduct expendable fire reconnaissance and local attacks on the fortified city.
The combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army will inevitably be completely exhausted after a week and a half of the lines of communication have been cut off.
At that time, if you don't surrender, you have to surrender.
Kiev, on the other hand, may have lost its operational conditions earlier because it was besieged earlier.
Therefore, combining the above judgments, the conclusion is as follows.
Ukraine is waiting to change, and why isn't Putin waiting to cut off the logistics of military supplies to wait for change? If the Russian army wants to force Ukraine to accept Putin's conditions, it still has to resolutely rush to Dnipropetrosovsk and Krasnograd.
The battle line is then blocked with digital armored artillery, drones, helicopters, aircraft and satellites. Set up military checkpoints on communication lines to cut off the military logistics of the Ukrainian army.
Large urban settlements are subjected to uninterrupted firepower with reconnaissance + local key attacks, and professional street warfare tactical detachments consume their supplies.
From the beginning of the war to the establishment of the victory, about three weeks or so. After the completion of the encirclement of the Dnipropetrosovsk region, the Ukrainian army's combat capability will inevitably be exhausted in a week or so.
Putin started to prepare at least a month of operational redundancy preparations, otherwise the war should not be launched.
The above, based on public information and public war history data on World War II and the Middle East war, is not guaranteed to be accurate.
Addendum: Of course, I saw that in the first article, some people in the comment area questioned that I was still the combat command idea of the large corps in the Era of World War II, and the Russian army was insufficient.
In fact, the blockade of such lines of communication is more dependent on helicopters, drones, satellites and reconnaissance aircraft.
Military fortifications were set up at the intersection of major roads as checkpoints to prevent the passage of military supplies.
This does not take up too many troops, and a battalion can cover a large area, after all, the Ukrainian side has lost air supremacy. If you dare to gather troops and drive chariots to hit the road, you will be beaten very badly. Without the use of chariots, it would have been impossible for light infantry to break through the checkpoints on the road in the fortified area.
As long as the Russians found it, they could get air support in a very short time, and armor support in more than an hour.
According to this calculation, 300+ kilometers of blockade line, only 6-7 battalions are needed, and 1-2 reserves are reserved.
Attached is my first phase analysis from a few days ago
(Sorry, just ate with the mobile phone sent me some time ago the first stage of analysis, accidentally sent the wrong or the second stage)
The first phase of analysis is here:
My analysis of the early morning of the sixteenth morning before the start of the war is here:
Will Russia and Ukraine go to war? - Yongle Emperor Ming Chengzu's answer - Zhihu https://www.zhihu.com/question/516197449/answer/2351046848
update:
I just saw the news of Wall Street at the dinner party.
Then I went to look at the video and saw that Russian military vehicles and infantry had entered the center of Kharkov and were believed to be besieging the Ukrainian armed forces guarding the school.
According to some of the more well-informed people in Russia, Kharkov fought more fiercely, using heavy artillery.
Perhaps in Kharkov the Russians were more desperate to quickly annihilate the Kharkov Ukrainian army.
On the one hand, the Russians have a relatively good mass base here and grasp the situation in the urban areas relatively quickly.
On the other hand, we can also see that there seems to be very little evidence from the Kyiv government or pro-Ukrainian netizens about the videos and pictures of the results of the battle that Kharkiv can release.
It is indeed possible, then, that the Russians are in a hurry to fight annihilation wars in Kharkov and Mariupol.
Is it to level the logistics channel in the south of the near Tan episode?
It's possible.
Because of the campaign tank group in the near-Tan episode, its logistical demand is incomparable to that of the general synthetic group army.
I don't know if I will receive news tonight that Kharkov has been taken down.
Once all the obstacles and difficulties in Kharkov were settled.
The spearhead of the attack of the Russian Guards tank cluster depends on the dynamics of the main forces of Slovaks.
If the main elite of the Siu front in the eastern Regions of Uzbekistan were to engage in hedgehog tactics, that is, to continue to hold on to the Iyyum region - Slavyansk - Kramatorsk region.
Then the Russians, in order to ensure the density of the blockade line or the strength of the reserves in order to conserve as many troops as possible, then the encirclement circle does not need to be very large, perhaps directly from the Kharkov region south to Lozovaya. After waiting for the friendly forces to break through Zaporizhia to the south, the two sides will divide in the Pavlograd area.
The encirclement of Ukraine on the left bank can be completed.
In fact, the Russian military is not far from achieving this goal.
The southern front is said to have impregnated the Mariupol Wall, berdyansk, and Tokmak. Melitopol has taken it.
The next step without suspense is Zaporizhia.
The kharkov direction is mysterious and the news of progress is very curious.
In the end, will the near Tan episode violently push downwards?
It is said that the militia on the eastern front of Ukraine has made a deadly attack and may be able to successfully stick to the main force of the Ukrainian army in front of them.
It is said that the Ukrainian army still has many anti-aircraft missile positions in this area.
If they want to withdraw across the Dnieper, the near Tan episode must be chased down from Krasnograd with full horsepower, blocking the Dnipropetrovsk in advance.
If the other side is an iron turtle, go to Lozovaya and close the encirclement at Pavlograd.
I think the Russians have a good level of military discipline secrecy, unlike the US imperialists who dropped a plane and a bunch of people took pictures and uploaded them to social media.
Nowadays, the movement of the main force of the ace on the northern front is actually unclear, and no one knows where the main force of the near Tan episode has gone.
When will Putin's strategic reserve enter. Did the Air Force cooperate with political opinion and finally exert its strength?
I think that no matter how much the Russians invite the Ukrainian government to Belarus to negotiate, it is unlikely that they will get the consent of the other side.
After all, if you defeat the Russian army and capture it, you can live, and if you accept the harsh conditions of the Russian army, the Nazis in the country will inevitably die.
Moreover, if you go, the negotiations cannot be negotiated, and finally defeated, you may be regarded by the domestic right wing as reaching a PY deal, damaging the domestic war of resistance, if you do not go, maybe the war of resistance will win, that is, you go, leak a lot of things to harm them to lose.
So I think Zelenskiy would have better not go if he had a brain.
And Putin probably wouldn't expect such negotiations to take shape at this stage.
The Russian army has not yet defeated the main forces of the West Ukrainian Defense Forces and the Namin Regiment in front of The Eastern Ukrainians, what kind of flowers can they talk about? If Zelenskiy wants to hand over the scum of those who raped and killed pregnant women, broke the legs of children, and tortured and killed old couples, can he hand them over?
So we have to look forward to Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovsk, to see the victory and defeat.
Seeing the news, the two sides agreed to meet near the Pripyat River, one of the areas where Marshal Rokossovsky's Central Front, the Central Front, crossed the river in the victorious Battle of Chernihiv.
At the same time Putin had a nuclear deterrent sent out.
Personally, I think it might not be wise for the Zelenskiy government to agree to meet at this time to talk about the terms. For the Russians, even if the current Ukrainian government could not be reorganized, the minimum requirement would be to destroy all the main forces in eastern Ukraine and break them up.
If you don't even do this, it's no different from defeat.
In particular, the Azov battalion, a well-known scum force, is being cordoned off in Mariupol for misdeeds and killing innocents.
The Russians negotiated in this situation, they paid so much price, they endured so many sanctions, and the top ten banks were kicked out of the IFA clearing system.
At the very least, Russia has proposed that Ukrainian law recognize the independence of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, and even if it is downgraded one more level, it will have to guarantee in writing that it will not change the status quo.
Then Kharkov autonomy, Kherson, Odessa also autonomy and accept the russian peacekeeping force stationed.
This is estimated to be the lowest red line that Putin can bear, otherwise it cannot be accounted for.
However, most of ukraine's main force structures have not been broken up, and no large number of troops have been annihilated. (Kharkiv region is difficult to say)
At such times, if anyone accepts the bottom line of the Russians during the negotiations, it will be a dead end.
I think the Kiev region is technically difficult to attack in the short term (without large-scale heavy fire attacks and civilian casualties). It is still the best policy to fence off military reinforcements here.
Negotiating near Gomel, a temporary ceasefire in kiev is not unacceptable to the Russians. Two or three squad-level tactical group fire reconnaissance was difficult to do much to help with the low-damage capture of Kiev.
I noticed that in the past two days, there have been quite a lot of videos and pictures about kiev's surrounding areas, and Ukrainian government officials have frequently made some remarks on the situation around Kiev, recounting the results of the battle and encouraging morale.
But there was very little news that could come out of Kharkiv, only the destruction of one building, the destruction of one pipe, etc.
So is the Kharkov Army close to being wiped out? Has the episode near Tan bypassed Kharkov and gone to Krasnograd and the Ijum region?
Is it possible that the people on Zelenskiy's side are talking while the Russian army on the eastern front continues to converge desperately from Zaporizhia and Pavlograd?
If this happened, and the main siu force was annihilated in the Slavyansk region afterwards, the black cauldron would be held to the negotiators.