Since the electric vehicle entered the market, the debate about electric vehicles and fuel vehicles has always existed, many people are not optimistic about electric vehicles, think that it has no future, the two major problems are mileage and charging, which are inevitable in the world, but also the current two major problems that limit its popularity, which can only be solved by technology.
However, it is undeniable that electric vehicles are indeed the trend of the times.
The first is the policy, according to the Paris Agreement, each country has its own carbon emission targets, increase subsidies to try to popularize cleaner electric vehicles are popular around the world, it can be said that the initial driving force of electric vehicles is policy rather than market demand, but after several years of market tests, the sales of electric vehicles have been rising steadily.
According to AlixPartners' analysis of China's electric vehicle market, in 2018, China's electric vehicle sales accounted for only 4.4% of new car sales, and by 2021, this proportion reached 20.8%; in 2021, in just 11 months, electric vehicle sales will be 117% higher than in 2020! Not only China, according to the International Energy Agency, global electric vehicle sales in 2016 were only 0.9%, and by 2020, it will increase to 3.2%, the fastest growing is China, followed by Europe and the United States.
Second, the earth's oil reserves are limited, and over time, the price of oil may become more expensive, which is a factor affecting electric vehicle sales in the future, Yahoo News reported that the recent situation in Ukraine and Russia has led to an increase in U.S. oil prices, and Arizona's electric vehicle sales have an upward trend.
Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2040, 72% of all car sales will be electric.
There is no doubt that the future of electric vehicle sales will continue to rise steadily, the recent news believes that many people have watched, Tesla is preparing to open a second factory in China, which means that China's electric vehicle upward trend may still be the fastest, this speed has attracted the attention of domestic scientists.
Recently, a team of researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University published an article titled "A Shark or Catfish? The Impact of Tesla's Entry into China's Electric Vehicle Market's academic paper examines whether Tesla played the role of a shark or catfish after entering the Chinese market.
After the study found that after Tesla first entered the Chinese market and listed the first batch of domestic Teslas in January 2020, China's total sales of electric vehicles experienced a significant leap, and in one year, sales increased by 2 times, while fuel vehicle sales fell by 2.1 times.
They used a standard log it model to recover the parameters of the consumer utility function and built a difference-in-difference framework to estimate the impact of Tesla's market entry on consumer utility. The results show that Tesla's entry has led to a significant increase in demand for electric vehicles in China, increasing consumer acceptance of electric vehicles, which is beneficial for both local plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicle manufacturers.
Tesla mainly stimulates the sales of plug-in hybrids, because the manufacturers of this part of the car do not directly compete with Tesla head-on, and those manufacturers that produce pure electric vehicles have suffered from the positive competition with Tesla, and they have to reduce the price of electric vehicles to attract consumers, otherwise the market will be occupied by Tesla.
All in all, the study found that Tesla's entry into the Chinese electric vehicle market has an incentive and demonstration effect on the local market, which has the benefit of active promotion for local companies and plays a catfish effect. For local pure electric car manufacturers that compete head-on with Tesla, Tesla may play the role of a shark, but they can also profit from the expansion of the total market.
In addition, consumers can benefit from price cuts, which is also conducive to the popularity of electric vehicles.