Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the war in Ukraine have attracted the attention of the whole world. The cause of the conflict is that Ukraine wants to join NATO, or even join the European Union, to improve the lives of its people. But contrary to his wishes, Zelenskiy clearly underestimated the complexity of the matter and the political ecology of Ukraine. Subsequently, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition of the independence of two regions in eastern Ukraine, and the whole world was in an uproar.
Russian-Ukrainian conflict
So how did Ukraine move towards disintegration?
1. The great gulf between the eastern and western regions of Ukraine
(1) Cultural factors
Once a huge spiritual difference is created, it is difficult to make up for it. Eastern and western Ukraine are different historical paths. After the signing of the Leslav Agreement in eastern Ukraine in 1654, it was gradually brought under the control of Tsarist Russia; while the western part of Ukraine was successively located in Poland-Lithuania under the rule of the Grand Duchy, austria-Hungary and Poland, and because of the lack of colonialism, the Western Ukrainians were able to retain the Ukrainian ethnic language, culture and customs, and the national consciousness was stronger. During World War II, although the territorial unification of the eastern and western parts of Ukraine was completed in the Soviet Union, it failed to eliminate regional differences, especially between Ukrainians and Russians, as well as cultural and spiritual differences between other ethnic minorities. Russian is spoken in the eastern part of Ukraine and Ukrainian is spoken in the western region. The inhabitants of the Eastern District are Orthodox, while the majority of the western regions are Catholic. Historical and cultural differences have created the pro-Russian and pro-European spirits of the peoples of the eastern and western regions of Ukraine.
Map of Ukraine (web image, invasion and deletion)
(2) Economic factors
During the Soviet era, Ukraine was divided into three: the Donets-Dnieper Economic Zone, the Southern Economic Zone, and the Southwest Economic Zone.
The Donets-Dnieper Basin Economic Zone, located in southeastern Ukraine, is one of the large heavy industrial zones of the former Soviet Union. Heavy industries such as steel, heavy machinery, chemical industry, electric power, and cement are developed, and it is also one of the agricultural areas with a high degree of intensification in the former Soviet Union.
Located in the south of Ukraine, the Southern Economic Zone is one of the most important processing industries in the former Soviet Union, with a well-developed machinery industry, food industry, light industry, shipbuilding industry and tourism.
The Southwest Economic Zone, located in the southwest of Ukraine, is the main producer of grain, with developed agriculture and relatively backward industry.
This industrial layout makes the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine economically interconnected with Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has been in a period of political transition for a long time, and the future direction of Ukraine has not yet been determined, and the industrial structure and its layout have not yet been clarified. Thus, on the economic front, the southern part of the eastern part of Ukraine keeps up with Russia, while the western region relies on neighboring countries such as the European Union and Poland.
(3) Diplomatic direction
In terms of foreign policy orientation, the pro-Russian faction in the eastern region has the upper hand, and the pro-European and American faction in the western region has the upper hand and is strongly anti-Russian. The differences between the two sides are so great that as the famous Ukrainian writer Andrey Kurkov said: "In Ukraine, there is no side that celebrates victory.
Political Map of Ukraine (Internet Image, Invasion and Deletion)
2. The power struggle between two opposing political forces in Ukraine
Since the Orange Revolution in 2004, Ukrainian domestic politics has formally formed two opposing and evenly matched political forces: pro-Western (orange) and pro-Russian. At that time, the pro-Western factions included the Tymoshenko League, the "Our Ukraine" Alliance and the Socialist Party (now mainly the "Fatherland" Party, the "Strike Party", the "Freedom" Party); pro-Russian factions included the Regional Party and the Communist Party. There are significant differences between the two factions in domestic and foreign policy. Taking the political system as an example, the pro-Western faction advocates the implementation of a parliamentary presidential system, and the pro-Russian faction advocates the implementation of a presidential parliamentary system. In this political crisis, the two factions have fought fiercely over whether to return to the 2004 constitutional amendments. At the same time, the personal feud between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych has also intensified the power struggle between the two camps. In the 2004 presidential election, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko defeated the already victorious Yanukovych through a "color revolution." In October 2011, Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for signing a contract for the purchase and sale of Natural Gas between Ukraine and Russia in 2009 for exceeding his authority. Tymoshenko saw this as Yanukovych's political revenge on her, and the feud between the two intensified.
Tymoshenko and Yanukovych
3, the economy is sluggish, the people are dissatisfied
More than 20 years after Ukraine's independence, the economy has not yet recovered to its 1990 levels. Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012 was equivalent to 69.5 per cent in 1990, and due to population decline, real GDP per capita was equivalent to 81.1 per cent in the 1990s. In 1990, Ukraine's per capita GDP was $1,570, slightly lower than Belarus's $1,705; in 2012, Ukraine's per capita GDP increased to only $3,867, while Belarus's increased to $6,685. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, the Ukrainian economy fell into crisis again and has not yet escaped the negative impact of the international financial crisis. In 2013, Ukraine's state budget deficit was close to 5% of GDP and the current account deficit was close to 8% of GDP. The political crisis that has lasted for months has made Ukraine's economy even worse. In February 2014, Ukraine's economy was on the verge of collapse: a deficit in the national treasury, a $75 billion foreign debt, and a pension for residents that had not been paid out in full for more than a month. In this economic situation, the life of ordinary Ukrainians is difficult, and many residents are dissatisfied with corruption and polarization. Even in these pro-Russian regions, a April 2014 survey of residents of eight eastern and southern Ukrainian states reported that the independence square protests were "against corrupt and authoritarian citizens." Protesters are eager for change and want to improve their lives by joining the European integration process.
The Ukrainian economy is not optimistic
reference
LIU Fenghua. The Ukraine Crisis: Internal Factors, Factors and Prospects of the Great Power Game. Russian Journal, Vol. 4, No. 21