(Translator's note: The Athletic reporter Danny Leroux, the content of this article does not represent the views of the translator, the data in this article is as of February 21, 2022 Beijing time.) ）
The 2022 NBA trading deadline ended after a series of major trades. Building on the existing squad, it will become clear which direction each team will be headed in the summer offseason in a few months' time. While potential contract renewal events (such as Beverley's contract extension with the Timberwolves after the trade deadline) and draft picks (the starting salary of a high pick show) may change, at this juncture, let's comb through and analyze the market pattern this summer.
According to the salary space, we divide the 30 teams into the following four categories, and analyze them in turn: teams with salary caps below; teams with full middle class exceptions above the salary cap; teams above the salary cap that can only use less than the full middle class exception (such as mini middle class); and teams above the luxury tax line.
1. Teams below the salary cap
The Detroit Pistons are undoubtedly the most noteworthy team in this slot. Depending on how they use the draft pick and treat Contracts of Hamidu Diallo and Frank Jackson, the Pistons will have $30 million to $35 million in salary space. They could even more aggressively handle Jerami Grant's contract to free up more pay space, a deal that wouldn't be difficult to do. Team general manager Troy Weaver could also wait until 2023 or 2024 to brew a bigger operation, as the young players in the team will have years to grow. At the moment I expect them to pursue elite-level restricted free agent Miles Bridges (Hornets), but if they don't get the best player for the team, they may also choose to wait and see and wait for the opportunity in 2023.
The Orlando Magic are in a similar situation, with the team's young core still a few years away from signing a new contract. Hopefully, Markle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac will return to the game before the end of the season so we can better assess the value of the Magic's existing assets. Teams have up to $30 million in salary space in the offseason, and they need to set aside a large portion of that space for restricted free agent Bamba's contract extension to see if they can keep him for a reasonable price. Plus, if the free agent market shows up as a player they want to sign, magic can also clear up enough space to make a competitive offer. Another logical option is that for higher and longer-term goals, they may also reserve salary space until next season, targeting the 2023 free agent market and making more upgrades to their already talented roster.
In addition to the above two teams, there is some uncertainty about the future of the three teams below. The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers will have up to $35 million in salary space, which is enough for a top-salary contract, but they'll have to say goodbye to the team's quality players (Spurs' Lonnie Walker, Blazers' Josh Hart and Nurkic), so the end result may not be so aggressive. But that's not good news for free agents Brunson and Mitchell Robinson, who want to maximize their next contract, whether they stay or leave the team this summer. The Indiana Pacers cleared up space after sending Sabonis off on the trade deadline, but if they want to free up $20 million to $24 million, they need to get TJ Warren out of the team. If he ends up staying on, the Pacers will stay above the pay cap and follow up with the full middle class exception.
One of the most interesting teams in this slot is the Memphis Grizzlies, as they are the only team with a record in the playoffs that can sign free agents for more than the middle-class exception without having to sign first and then trade. They may wait a moment on whether to keep Kyle Anderson and Tyes Jones (or either of both) as they want to leave 16 million to 18 million after the contract extension with Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also have some highly anticipated first-round picks that team general manager Zach Kleiman can use to clear space for a bigger signing or in exchange for a player with a contract on his back. There's still a whole season to negotiate Morant's next big contract, and there's no more desirable scenario than that, and the Grizzlies have time to wait for other star players to flow into the market, and they're all at ease anyway.
2. Teams with salary caps or above can use full middle class exceptions
The NBA salary cap for the 2022-23 season is expected to increase to $121 million, the luxury tax threshold is expected to be $147 million, and the amount of middle class exceptions is increased accordingly, with the full middle class exception being $10.264 million. In addition to the above 6 teams we envision with total salaries below the salary cap, there are 8 other teams above the salary cap, with some operating space to use the full middle class exception: Hawks, Rockets, Timberwolves, Knicks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Wizards (assuming Bill re-signs the contract).
The management of these teams can choose to clear some guarantee contracts to make room, such as the rumored Knicks will pursue Brunson. But because there is still a certain distance from the luxury tax threshold (the hard wage cap is not likely to affect their plans), they can also choose to sign first and change later. Of course, by signing first and then changing players, it is necessary to get the cooperation of players in the team, which is not common.
The Thunder are one of those notable teams. Theoretically, they could sign free agents or seek a deal on July 1 with $31 million. According to my colleague John Hollinger, Thunder general manager Presti is willing to take on big contracts like Tobias Harris or even Westbrook if the rewards are good. If such a deal happens, it would allow the Thunder to pay the luxury tax in the 2022-23 season, but Presti still has the time and resources to keep the salary below the luxury tax line before all the dust settles.
A total of 14 teams in both classes were able to use more than $6.3 million to sign new players without clearing up existing guarantee contracts, but these teams are still less than half of the league total. That's bad news for those who are about to become free agents, but good news for teams looking to use bird rights to keep their own players.
3. Above the salary cap, only teams with special cases below the full middle class (such as mini middle class) can be used
The six teams in this tier lack the manoeuvre to use the $10.3 million full-middle-class exception (at least for now), but can maintain some salary flexibility and keep the total below the luxury tax threshold, including the Celtics, Hornets, Cavaliers, Heat, Pelicans, bulls (assuming Lavin re-signed). They can sign players with $6.34 million in mini-mid-class exceptions, but that could make them pay the luxury tax, so most of them won't use them all unless they can cut their salary expenses in other ways.
Some of them can be very variable because of the team's expired free agents, notably Bridges of the Hornets and Sexton of the Cavaliers. The higher the market value of these restricted free agents, the less room there is for the team's management to evade luxury taxes. In addition, although teams in this bracket are close to the luxury tax line, they can still use a portion of the mini-middle-class exception at the beginning of the offseason or near the trade deadline, as the luxury tax will not be calculated until the end of the season. Considering that fewer teams this year can offer contracts that are higher than the mini-middle-class exception, teams that can afford to offer these contracts will have a big advantage, after all, $6.3 million is much higher than the base salary.
4. Teams above the luxury tax line
The final slot is also the most numerous, with 10 teams, or a third of the league's total. There are some teams that are mired in it and have no obvious way out, while others have only a small luxury tax burden. Teams expected to be above the 147 million luxury tax threshold next season: Warriors, Nets, Clippers, Lakers, Bucks, 76ers, Suns, Jazz, Lone Rangers, Nuggets. Regardless of how much they exceed the luxury tax line, the collective bargaining agreement allows their management to use the $6.3 million mini-middle-class exception, but it comes at a high price. What's interesting about the 2022-23 season is that most of the teams in this gear are a considerable distance beyond the luxury tax line, and some minor operations are not enough to bring their total salary below the luxury tax line, so it can be expected that there will be almost no team in the 2023 trade deadline to make a particularly big move to avoid the luxury tax completely. But market conditions inevitably change. There is still considerable appeal in not paying the luxury tax in the long run, and we will see the efforts made by the teams in this direction.