On May 11, Beijing time, the NBA officially announced the probability table of this year's draft lotto draw. The Pistons and Wizards are tied for first place each with a 14 percent chance of winning the top pick, and the Rockets also have a 6 percent chance of winning the top pick (4.5 percent from the Nets and 1.5 percent of their own), and Udoka will represent the team at the ceremony. The draw will take place on May 13 at 3 a.m. CST in Chicago.
The probability of each team's specific draw is as follows, from the probability of the first pick, the Pistons and Wizards each have 14%, the Hornets 13.3%, the Trail Blazers 13.2%, the Spurs 10.5%, the Raptors 9%, the Grizzlies 7.5%, the Jazz 6%, the Rockets 6%, the Hawks 3%, the Bulls 2%, the Kings 0.8%, the Warriors 0.7%
Specific to each team, taking the Pistons as an example, they have a 14% probability of winning the top pick, a 13.41% probability of drawing the top pick, a 12.74% probability of drawing the Tanhua lottery, an 11.97% probability of drawing the No. 4 pick, and a 47.87% probability of drawing the No. 5 pick, for a total of 52.13% probability of drawing the top four picks.
Looking at the Rockets again, according to Rockets reporter Kelly Iko, sources have revealed that Rockets coach Udoka will represent the Rockets in the lottery for the second year in a row. Udoka represented the Rockets in the 2023 lottery last year when he first took office, and the Rockets had a 14% chance of winning the top pick, but ended up with the fourth pick, and used this pick to select Amen Thompson.
The Rockets have the Nets' first-round pick this season, and this pick has a 4.5% probability of drawing the top pick, a 4.83% probability of drawing the top pick, a 5.23% probability of drawing the No. 4 pick, and a total of 20.27% probability of drawing the top four picks.
The Rockets also have their own first-round pick, but there is only a 7.12% chance of drawing a top-four pick, and if this pick fails to draw the top four, it will belong to the Thunder.
According to the table, there are three other sticks that have potential changes –
The Raptors' first-round pick, if they don't make it to the top six, this pick will belong to the Spurs.
The Jazz's first-round pick, if they can't get into the top 10, this pick will belong to the Thunder.
The Warriors' first-round pick, if they don't make it to the top four, will belong to the Trail Blazers. Since the Warriors only have a 3.37% chance of finishing in the top four, unless they are lucky, there is a good chance that this pick will not be their own.
As previously reported, this year's draft will be held in two rounds. The first round will be held on June 27, Beijing time, and the second round will be held on June 28.