Today we talk about Ukraine.
In fact, from the perspective of Putin and the Russian ruling class, Ukraine's accession to NATO is absolutely unacceptable. Because this is a question of the survival of the Russian nation. Before that, Putin had given a one-hour speech. At that time, the vice-chairman of the National Security Council, Medvedev, who had previously served as president of Russia, also gave a speech strongly demanding that the two Ukrainian oblasts be recognized as independent states. I think there is a lot of misreading in the West about the Ruling Class in Russia. The public once thought of Medvedev as a liberal, Western-leaning man. Then you don't know too much about the Russians, and Medvedev is more determined than Putin in matters.
For now, Putin's next plan is for Russia to send troops and peacekeeping forces to the two separate states. But these two separate oblasts, half of which are actually controlled by Ukrainian government forces. The peacekeeping forces that Russia has now sent in the past will maintain the existing borders and will not completely drive Russian troops out of these two oblasts. He will not take the initiative to fight, but will maintain the existing boundaries.
After a month or two the situation can gradually ease down, whether you accept it or not in the West, after a few years, you have to face the reality that these two states, it is independent. If Ukraine or the West were to take stronger military measures, Russia would increase its weight even further. In ukraine as a whole, in fact, Russian speakers, ethnic Russians, not only in these two oblasts have a relatively high proportion, these two oblasts almost have a proportion of more than 70%. There are also some states that are close to 70 percent, and some are in the 50 percent.
In these Russian-majority states of Ukraine, Russia will further support the continuation of independence, the first step. That is, I have made key decisions, and the geopolitical ecology of Europe as a whole has changed dramatically. It is impossible for you to ask me to retreat, but I will not go any further, I will keep the current situation and see what you do in Ukraine.
If you do it, I'll sweep you away militarily. If you are in the same state, you will have a certain economic loss for Russia, a certain cost, and he will go further to Ukraine, to carry out a color revolution in the opposite direction in his states.
What Putin actually wants to see is that Ukraine is Finnized. Finland, in fact, in history, fought very badly with Russia, and fought a Soviet-Russian war before the Second World War. There were not many Finns, but they were very effective, and before that World War II, he beat the Red Army with a small number of troops.
However, after the end of the Second World War, Finland also joined the German Nazi army. As a result, it was almost completely destroyed by Russia. However, Russia, and later did not go too far, Finland ceded part of its territory. Finland has assumed an attitude called semi-neutrality. Economically, Finland's integration into europe is a free-market economy and so on, and politically it has nothing to do with russia.
In terms of defense, it poses no threat to Russia. The defensive forces of the army, etc., are also completely defensive, and they do not say that they are close to NATO, and what strategic nuclear weapons are being engaged in over there, what air bases are engaged in radar warfare to threaten your Russian security. So, in these respects, you don't have to worry about the military threat I have against you, other countries stationing troops in me, and so on, you can rest assured. Nor will I be anti-Russian.
In Finland, as an ordinary person, if you attack Russia in the media, including What Stalin in Russia's past history, these things will be severely punished. Finland, as a small country, has a certain combat effectiveness, but I reassure you that I will not mess with you. We should do business, we can do business. Some Russians are actually very close to the Finns in terms of blood.
Russia wants Ukraine to follow the path of Finnishization, and it doesn't matter how it does business with Europe economically, but militarily, not in terms of national security, there is no threat to me. The word Finnishization has now been proposed and discussed a lot, and the Germans, the French, and in fact, the American political circles, many people think that this is the way Ukraine should go.
However, the current Biden administration does not think so, if it is understood that the king is on the stage, it is very likely to be like this, but now in the case of sleeping king, he does not want to do this, he still has to do something. He did something for a variety of purposes, and Jews like Blinken still wanted to give Russian eye drops. At the same time, the European economy can mess up a bit, can get money back to the United States, it has some short-term careful thinking. Therefore, the United States will have medium intensity sanctions against Russia one by one.
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