KIEV, Ukraine — It's not hard to guess what Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy now craves: a normal day.
The president, who turned from comedian, certainly did not expect that the job would be so intense. First, he was embroiled in the impeachment of Donald Trump. Then he had to deal with COVID-19. Now he is facing a full-scale Russian invasion.
Of course, Russia has been waging war in eastern Ukraine since 2014. But the threat is now comprehensive: as many as 190,000 Russian troops have massed near Ukraine's borders and separatist regions, ready for an invasion that could bring destruction and disaster. The situation is very serious. Zelenskiy, who spent most of his life as a comedian, is now overwhelmed. When he came to power in 2019, he turned his fame on television into a brilliant political career, and no one knew what would happen. His opponents said he was too inexperienced and doomed to be a disaster. His supporters believe he will break the old ways and end corruption. His harshest critics say the Russian-speaking Zelenskiy, born in eastern Ukraine, will almost certainly sell the country to Russia. Others say he is a puppet of oligarchy.
The truth, however, is even more prosaic. Zelenskiy, the entertainer and performer, has been unmasked by reality, revealing that he is just a frustrating mediocre.
Nearly three years into his presidency, the problem is clear: Zelenskiy tends to treat everything as a show. For him, gesture is more important than results. Strategic objectives are sacrificed for short-term gain. It doesn't matter what words he uses, it just makes fun. If the wind rating is very bad, he will stop listening and put himself surrounded by fans.
At first his prospects were bright. Early in his tenure, Zelenskiy wielded more power than any of his predecessors. His reputation and anti-system charm earned him a parliamentary majority, a carefully chosen cabinet and a mandate for reform. At first, this seems to work. His government has opened up farmland markets and expanded digital services across the country. He embarked on a massive road-building program, declaring that he hoped people would eventually remember him for being the president who built good roads in Ukraine.
But his success basically stopped there. Zelenskiy's other major project, a campaign he called "de-oligarchy," aimed at limiting the influence of the very wealthy, looks more like a public relations initiative than a serious policy. Despite his promises during the campaign, no progress has been made in the fight against corruption. According to Transparency International, Ukraine remains the third most corrupt country in Europe, after Russia and Azerbaijan. Anti-corruption and law enforcement agencies are either stagnant or run by presidentially appointed cronies.
Zelenskiy doesn't seem to worry too much about corruption — at least when those involved are close to him. In March 2020, when Zelenskiy's brother was found offering a government position in exchange for money, Zelenskiy did nothing. Recently, a drunken senior lawmaker who paid bribes to police officers at the scene of a car accident that may have been caused by him was filmed by camera. The public was enraged, but Zelenskiy only uttered a vague disapproval and then acted as if it were all right. Even the president's new beautiful road has been mired in controversy. It is believed that there is a black-box operation in the procurement process and that the price is too high.
Scandals and tolerance for corruption have weakened Zelenskiy's approval ratings. 62 percent of Ukrainians don't want him to run for re-election, and if an election is held today, he will get about 25 percent of the vote, down from 30 percent he easily won in the first round of 2019 elections. He still has the potential to win, but his historic 73 percent of the vote in the second round of the election has become a distant memory.
The president's tensions with the media have also not helped the situation. Zelenskiy, a former actor, used to hear applause, was notoriously thin-skinned when criticized and questioned. He is clearly annoyed by traditional journalists: Last November, this uncontrollable approach led to an undignified standoff at a news conference.
Zelenskiy doesn't just get along badly with the media. His first year in office was chaotic. His hastily assembled team quickly fell apart, and yesterday's allies became his harshest critics. There are frequent personnel changes. New ministers don't have much time to prove themselves and will be kicked out if they can't.
The chaos eventually stopped, but paid the price. Zelenskiy was stung by these anti-purpose consequences, after which he relied heavily on loyal people rather than qualified ones. An old friend of Zelenskiy's who had been a filmmaker was appointed chief of staff, exercising enormous power alongside his other friends and confidants. The security services are overseen by one of his former corporate lawyers, while the president's party in parliament is run by a loyal former information technology businessman. The circle around the president became an echo chamber.
In the process, Zelenskiy became the kind of politician he opposed when he campaigned: reclusive, closed, surrounded by non-committal people. Under normal circumstances, this is bad enough. But now, when Ukraine is threatened by Russia, that could affect Zelenskiy's judgment.
This has become increasingly clear in recent weeks. As the West seeks voice-mounted diplomacy to deter an invasion, Zelenskiy is trying to downplay the threat. This effort to appease a volatile market is understandable, but it is undermined by his ostentatious style.
In an ill-timed speech in January, for example, the arrogant Zelenskiy was actually mocking Ukrainians for being prone to panic and laughing at a possible invasion. Just the next day, he claimed that Russia might invade Kharkov, Ukraine's second-largest city. Instead of being comforted, the country is confused. No wonder 53% of Ukrainians believe that zelenskiy will not be able to defend the country if there is an invasion.
However, Zelenskiy's eccentric and eerie behavior obscures the fact that he has no good options. On the one hand, any concession to Russia, especially over the conflict in eastern Ukraine, could lead to hundreds of thousands of people marching in the streets — which would expose him to the fate of President Viktor Yanukovych, who was overthrown by the revolution in 2014. On the other hand, any explicit action against Russia could give the Kremlin a pretext to launch a deadly invasion.
Of course, the show must go on. The crisis continues. But the president's performance — tense, awkward, often indecent — has done little to help.