Ukraine is militarily mobilized, and Russia is not waiting for "financial nuclear weapons" in Europe and the United States

Qu Bo, president of the Odessa Chinese Chamber of Commerce, had just spent a sleepless night.

On the 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his decision to launch a special military operation in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine. Subsequently, explosions occurred in the capital Kiev, the second largest city Kharkiv, the southern port city of Odessa and other places, and the situation in Ukraine suddenly escalated.

When the first financial reporter contacted him again on the morning of the 25th Beijing time (4:30 a.m. local time in Odessa, Ukraine) again, he told the first financial economics that Odessa is currently very calm, "Of course, there have also been hoarding grain, water and other daily necessities, going to the bank to withdraw money, and everything else is normal." Supermarket goods are still in good supply. ”

According to the notice released on the website of the Russian president, putin has had a telephone conversation with a number of foreign leaders on the 24th to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

On the 25th local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that the West has completely abandoned Ukraine. Zelenskiy said he had asked the leaders of 27 European countries whether Ukraine could join NATO, but none had received a response. Ukrainian data show that 137 people have died and another 316 have been injured. At the same time, Zelenskiy also issued a national military mobilization order.

"Young men can no longer leave Ukraine"

Qu Bo told the first financial reporter that since the 24th, there are many Local Chinese who consult with him about various things, "Everyone is worried about it, but it is still worrying about it, or wait-and-see." According to the data provided by Qu Bo, there are currently about 3,000 Chinese and Chinese students in Odessa. There are fewEr Chinese-funded enterprises, and there are more Chinese businessmen and students studying abroad.

On the 24th, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine issued an urgent notice: At present, the domestic situation in Ukraine has deteriorated sharply, and my citizens and Chinese-funded enterprises in Ukraine are in a high security risk. In order to prepare for the return of charter flights in batches, personnel registration is now open. Charter flights are voluntary. The time of the charter dispatch is determined according to the flight safety situation and will be notified in advance.

Qu Bo said that the Chamber of Commerce has begun to assist the embassy and consulate in the registration of evacuations, "now everyone is most concerned about not bombing the city, don't fight too much." He reminded the Chinese, overseas Chinese and students in Odessa not to panic, the embassy organized the evacuation of overseas Chinese, while ensuring their own safety, do not panic, hoard more food and water.

Qu Bo also told the first financial reporter that there are also Ukrainian friends around them who choose to evacuate to the countryside or the western big cities closer to Europe out of fear of war, "There are also many people who choose to go abroad, but according to the latest regulations of the Ukrainian government, young and middle-aged men aged 18 to 60 have not been allowed to go abroad and need to perform military service." ”

Europe and the United States have not yet offered the harshest sanctions

After the war on the 24th, the United States and Europe immediately introduced the second round of more severe sanctions against Russia. As of the time of the first financial reporter's press release, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have successively announced the details of the latest round of sanctions, involving Russia's economic, financial, energy and other industries.

For example, the latest U.S. sanctions focus on imposing sanctions on five large financial institutions, including the Russian Savings Bank, a Russian bank; implementing export controls in the high-tech sector; and planning to ban large Russian state-owned enterprises from financing U.S. investors;

The EU's latest sanctions include placing two Russian banks on a list of financial institutions that prohibit lending or buying securities; a ban on the export of aircraft, aircraft parts and related equipment; and a ban on the sale of equipment and technology needed to bring Russian refineries up to modern environmental standards.

Ma Bin, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and deputy director of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center, told First Finance and Economics that these sanctions have not changed or escalated qualitatively compared with before, but have only increased in the order of magnitude of sanctions, such as targeting more banks and large energy companies that are closely related to the lives of ordinary Russian people.

Professor Wu Huiping, deputy director of the German Research Center of Tongji University, told First Finance and Economics that although Europe and the United States have increased sanctions against Russia, "it is not the 'most severe' sanction at present, but only relative to the sanctions when there was no war." ”

Wu Huiping explained that at that time, the West hoped for peace talks and did not want to stimulate Russia, so the first wave of sanctions after the 21st was still smaller; but after the 24th, both the "Five Eyes Alliance" and the European Union increased sanctions, such as Germany immediately stopped the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas project, through the embargo of high-tech products, Russia could not obtain the EU's oil and gas extraction technology exports, etc., aimed at accurately attacking the Russian energy industry and weakening the Russian financial system.

However, Wu Huiping believes that Europe and the United States have not offered the "most severe sanctions", that is, to exclude Russia from the SWIFT settlement system, "if this so-called 'financial nuclear weapon' is implemented, it will have a greater impact on the Russian financial system." ”

The Association for Worldwide Banking Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) is an international interbank non-profit international cooperation organization that provides fast, accurate and excellent services to international financial operations, regulated by central banks in the United States, Japan and Europe. Thousands of banks around the world, including nearly 300 Russian banks, use SWIFT's secure communication system in their transactions for making simple transfers to settle their customers' transactions or securities, stocks or bond transactions.

If a Russian bank is spun off from the SWIFT system because of an EU or U.S. decision, it will have to transact with foreign partners in the traditional ways of the past, such as faxing.

"The most powerful move is still not sacrificed, because Germany's opposition is relatively large, although it can effectively strike at the Russian financial system, but it will also affect the influence of Europe itself, which belongs to the 'killing a thousand enemies and losing eight hundred', which will directly affect the vital interests of German and other European enterprises." Wu Huiping said, "Even during the previous Cold War period, Europe's economic and trade exchanges with Russia have continued. ”

Wu Huiping believes that although the current war is tightening, diplomatic mediation still exists, and "the more terrible outcome envisioned by the German media is nuclear war, which will directly lead to disastrous results." In order to avoid the most extreme situations, Europe will still try to mediate as much as possible. ”

As for Western sanctions, Russia's central bank said it would provide rubles and foreign exchange assistance to banks affected by the sanctions at home. Almost all the banks affected by the sanctions have made plans and have enough resilience to ensure the normal operation of the sanctions conditions, so the market situation is currently stable. The Russian Foreign Trade Bank said Western sanctions would not affect the security of bank customer accounts and deposits. The Russian Federal Savings Bank said it had no restrictions on depositing and withdrawing rubles and other foreign currencies.