In the recent Outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine seemed powerless to divide its territory because it faced an incomparably formidable adversary. The Ukrainian president lamented at the recent Munich conference that he had relinquished nuclear weapons to obtain security guarantees, but now "there are neither weapons nor security".
The Ukrainian foreign minister shared the same view, saying in an interview that the decision to abandon nuclear weapons was "extremely wrong." As the conflict grew, there were growing calls for the restoration of nuclear weapons within Ukraine.
What is less well known is that Ukraine was once the world's third-largest nuclear power, behind the United States and Russia in numbers, more than Britain and France combined. However, they lack strategic foresight, abandon their martial arts, and now they have fallen to the point of being slaughtered by others, which is very regrettable.
In fact, China faced more serious difficulties than Ukraine, but made completely different choices, and the results now show that the leaders of the time made wise decisions.
At one time, it became the world's third nuclear power
Ukraine has long been ruled by Tsarist Russia in its history, and when the Soviet Union was founded, Ukraine was one of the first four republics. After joining the Soviet Union, although there were some twists and turns, Ukraine as a whole was still very moist.
During the Stalin period, the Soviet Union made a lot of industrial investment in Ukraine, and the more famous ones were the largest hydropower station in Europe at that time - the Dnieper River Hydropower Station, the Kharkiv Tractor Factory and so on. By 1932, Ukraine's coal, iron ore and pig iron accounted for more than 70 percent of Soviet production.
By the eve of World War II, Ukraine's output of metal machinery was almost on par with that of Britain, europe's premier industrial center. Although the development of Ukraine was affected by the German invasion during World War II, the Ukrainian economy resumed rapid development after the war. It wasn't until the 1980s, when the Soviet economy stagnated, that Ukraine began to stand still.
During the Soviet union's rule, a large number of industrial, military and even sophisticated strategic weapons were deployed in Ukraine, and within the 15 republics, Ukraine's weight should be second only to Russia. Seeing this, you may ask why the Soviet Union valued Ukraine so much?
First of all, from a strategic point of view, Ukraine, known as the "Gateway to Europe", was the bridge from the Soviet Union to Europe and the outer barrier of the Soviet Union. Ukraine is also the logistics base of the Black Sea Fleet, and the city of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula has 4 excellent ports with a well-developed infrastructure that can dock warships of any class. The security of the Black Sea is more related to the military security of the Soviet Union in the Caspian Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Caucasus.
Secondly, Ukraine is rich in area and resources. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, with flat terrain and large areas of fertile black soil, also known as the "granary of Europe". In addition, Ukraine is also very rich in mineral and water resources, especially asphalt, anthracite coal accounted for 60% of the total reserves of the Soviet Union, rich resources are destined to become an important industrial base in Ukraine.
Finally, the human factor. This may be overlooked by many, as both soviet leaders had close ties to Ukraine. Khrushchev grew up in the Donbass coalfields of Ukraine, and later worked in Ukraine for a long time, and after he took office, he promoted a large number of Cadres of Ukrainian Origin, and directly assigned Crimea to Ukraine despite everyone's opposition. And Bonezhnev is an authentic Ukrainian, and national sentiment inevitably makes him tilt toward Ukraine.
Therefore, at the moment of the collapse of the Soviet Union, a large number of factories, military facilities, weapons and equipment were on the territory of Ukraine. Strategic nuclear weapons accounted for 20 percent of the total number of the former Soviet Union, and the number was staggering. Ukraine became the third nuclear power after the United States and Russia.
Ukraine during the Soviet era
According to relevant statistics, Ukraine has 176 intercontinental missiles, including 46 new SS-24 missiles, each missile can carry 10 nuclear warheads; the old SS-19 missiles have 130 missiles, each missile can carry 6 nuclear warheads. There are 21 Tu-95 bombers capable of carrying long-range cruise missiles and 16 Tu-160 bombers. In total, these weapons are equipped with 1800 nuclear warheads and have two missile launch bases.
In addition, there are tactical nuclear weapons carried by MiG-23, MiG-27, Su-24 and other aircraft, as well as Scud, SS-21 and other missiles.
Ukraine not only possesses numerous nuclear weapons, but is also capable of producing nuclear weapons, has two intercontinental missile production plants and is the sixth largest producer of strategic nuclear missiles in the world. The only flaw is that nuclear warheads cannot be produced, but the more than a thousand nuclear warheads that exist are enough to deal with the threat posed by any country.
Ukraine's equipment does not know how many countries are drooling.
The deep-seated reason for "self-deprecating martial arts"
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union possessed more than 60,000 nuclear warheads, capable of destroying the planet several times. In order to avoid misfire and human catastrophe, the two countries agreed to reduce strategic nuclear weapons and restrict the development of nuclear weapons by other countries. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, as its successor, also continued this policy. Therefore, Ukraine has a large number of nuclear weapons, and the United States and Russia will not agree.
For the United States, it is difficult to distinguish whether a country that has just emerged from the enemy camp is friend or foe. Moreover, if a small country possesses nuclear weapons, it can obtain an international status that is not equal to its comprehensive strength, which is not convenient for the implementation of US hegemonism.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine showed a tendency to break away from Soviet control, and after independence, it was also very defensive about Russia. Russia will certainly not allow a nuclear power on its doorstep that it cannot control.
Just as the so-called "fight early and fight small", the United States and Russia immediately agreed and decided to force Ukraine to transport nuclear weapons to Russia for destruction when it had just become independent and its foothold was unstable.
Soviet SS-24 train missile
In this context, In order to gain the support and recognition of major powers, Ukraine has repeatedly declared that it will become a neutral and non-nuclear state. In May 1992, all tactical nuclear weapons were shipped to Russia, but strategic nuclear weapons were still in their hands and refused to release them. Since then, there has been a reversal of Attitudes in Ukraine.
The potential threat from Russia is very worrying for Ukraine. Although the Soviet Union has collapsed, Russia still wants to inherit the Soviet Union's position and continue to control Ukraine. In addition, there is a growing call within Ukraine for nuclear weapons, with 40 percent of people in a poll wanting to do so. There are also more and more parliamentarians supporting the possession of nuclear weapons.
However, the Ukrainian leadership lacked strategic foresight and decided to negotiate with the United States and the Soviet Union and reap as many economic and security benefits as possible with nuclear weapons.
After a long and tortuous bargaining process between the United States and Russia, Yeltsin, Clinton, and Kravchuk (President of Ukraine) signed a tripartite declaration in Moscow on January 14, 1994. Ukraine agreed to ship all nuclear weapons to Russia for destruction. The United States and Russia respect and protect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine also received $170 million in aid from the United States.
In November 1994, Ukraine ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, followed by the signing of the Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances between Russia, the United States, The United Kingdom, and Ukraine. The memorandum is broadly the same as the previous tripartite statement: signatories cannot use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, respect its sovereignty, refrain from the threat of force against it, and should assist in the event of threats to its borders.
However, this guarantee proved to be unable to guarantee Ukraine's security.
On June 1, 1996, Ukraine's successor, President Kuchma, announced that he had shipped all the nuclear warheads out of the territory, thus completing the self-abolition of martial arts. Of course, in addition to the pressure from the United States and Russia and the lack of strategic vision of the leaders, Ukraine's nuclear abolition also has its deep-seated reasons.
The first is the severe economic crisis. Ukraine's steel, minerals, and grain production accounted for a relatively high proportion within the Soviet Union, and almost all Ukrainians thought that they would live a good life after the Independence of the Soviet Union. However, the opposite happened, and the post-independence Ukraine faced a serious economic crisis, with GDP growing negatively from 1992 to 1999. Almost all economic indicators have regressed to the levels of the fifties and sixties.
The government ran a serious fiscal deficit, growing from 367.3 billion UAH in 1992 to 109 trillion UKR in 1994. At the same time, there was inflation, a large amount of foreign debt, a crisis in the payment of the Ukrainian government and enterprises, even wages and pensions could not be paid, and workers had to take the products of the factories to the market for the necessities of life. The enormous expenses required to maintain nuclear weapons are even more unaffordable for Ukraine.
The second is the technical problem. While Ukraine can use or even produce nuclear weapons on its own, the maintenance and management of nuclear weapons is a systematic project. When the Soviet Union first developed nuclear weapons, there were more than 10,000 cutting-edge scientists, more than 80% of whom were in Russia. This means that other union republics that deploy nuclear weapons are unable to maintain nuclear weapons alone.
More seriously, some of Ukraine's nuclear weapons have exceeded their safe service deadlines, and even hydrogen accumulation has occurred. If these nuclear weapons cannot be maintained or dismantled, it is undoubtedly a time bomb planted in Ukraine. As is well known, the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine caused a serious disaster. How to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past is also a problem for Ukrainians to consider.
People in difficult times in Ukraine
Finally, there is the temptation of economic gain. After promising to eliminate nuclear weapons, Ukraine gained enormous economic benefits. The United States gave Ukraine $175 million in aid and gave Ukraine $1 billion after refining uranium from nuclear warheads into commercial uranium for sale. Russia has relieved ukraine of some of its debt and provided it with oil and gas at preferential prices. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank gave $1.5 billion and $700 million in loans, respectively.
Not only nuclear weapons, but also many other valuable heavy weapons have been sold out by Ukraine, such as the famous aircraft carrier Varyag. At first, the Black Sea Fleet was also on Ukrainian territory, and through repeated negotiations, Ukraine received some of the ships, but eventually sold them to Russia. In this way, Ukraine was reduced from a military power to a mediocre state.
Different options for the great powers of the East
Looking back at history, China has faced the same dilemma as Ukraine, but has made a completely different choice.
As early as the period of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, China was threatened several times by the United States, which made China's decision-making level firm in its belief in possessing nuclear weapons. In April 1956, Chairman Mao clearly pointed out in "On the Relations of the Ten Congresses":
Not only do we want more planes and artillery, but we also want atomic bombs. In today's world, we can't live without this thing if we don't want to be bullied.
At that time, China's science and technology were backward, and it could only ask the Soviet Big Brother for help, and Khrushchev, who faced a crisis at the beginning of his term of office, also agreed to assist China's nuclear technology. But in 1958, when Sino-Soviet relations were turning, the Soviet Union repeatedly delayed the supply of raw materials for the production of atomic bombs. Until 1960, all experts in China were evacuated and the construction of aid projects was stopped.
At this time, China is facing even more difficulties than Ukraine. China has experienced decades of war, is truly poor and white, the industry has just started, lack of talent, lack of technology and lack of funds. At that time, it was facing serious economic difficulties and the grain harvest was not harvested. Ukraine has at least a certain industrial base and a small number of people, and despite being in crisis, it will at least not go hungry if it is properly organized.
Regarding these difficulties, Mao Zedong said at a meeting: "Someone asked me where the money for building airplanes, cannons, atomic bombs, and missiles came from, and I told him that he was here..." He stood up and patted the pocket on his waist and said: "The money is not in the pocket, it is the waistband of the pants!" ”
He meant to save money, even if he was hungry, and tightened his trouser belt when he was thin, which was a common thing in the war years. No matter how hard we live in time, we must first get the atomic bomb out.
However, some people still do not understand this, and when faced with difficulties, there is also a debate within whether the atomic bomb should be "mounted" or "dismounted":
The view was expressed that the study should be suspended. The reason is very simple, at present, China's industrial base has not yet reached that level, and the research on the atomic bomb requires a lot of funds, and it is difficult to continue research in the face of economic difficulties. It would be better to develop conventional weapons with limited funds first.
Some people also believe that if we do not do it now, we will lag behind others more if we delay it for a long time in the future. Moreover, the external environment is unstable, how can China develop its economy with peace of mind in the face of the nuclear threat of a major country?
In this regard, Marshal Chen Yi took a resolute attitude, saying: "Chinese is to take the pants seriously, but also to get the atomic bomb out." Nie Rongzhen, He Long, Ye Jianying and others also supported the continued research on the atomic bomb, and then they sent people to conduct a detailed investigation into the construction of China's atomic energy industry.
Footage of China's atomic bomb research
Nie Rongzhen and Luo Ruiqing respectively reported to the central authorities, saying that they would strive to explode the first atomic bomb in 1964 or 1965.
Chairman Mao made up his mind and gave instructions on the report: "Very good, do as you are told." Since then, China has almost devoted itself to the process of studying the atomic bomb with the strength of the whole country, and Chinese is really "tightening the belt of the pants and carrying out the atomic bomb."
Finally, in the autumn of 1964, China built the first atomic bomb, but when was it tested? Intelligence at this time indicated that the United States was trying to join forces with the Soviet Union to bomb China's nuclear facilities. If it detonates at this time, will it cause them to react strongly?
Chairman Mao believed that there was a risk and that it should be tested immediately, saying: "The atomic bomb is frightening, it may not be used, and since it is frightening, it will be fired early." Thus, on October 16, 1964, China's first atomic bomb was successfully detonated at the Lop Nur test site.
As it turns out, the United States did not act at all. They were caught up in the chaos that followed the assassination of President Kennedy and had to devote a great deal of energy to the upcoming elections, leaving no time to worry about China's atomic bomb. It is really "the apes on both sides of the strait can't stop crying, and the light boat has passed through the ten thousand heavy mountains."
A series of policy decisions on the development of the atomic bomb reflect Chairman Mao's strategic foresight. Imagine if China had not continued to study the atomic bomb because of the difficulties it faced, would the Soviet Union have no scruples about using the atomic bomb against China in the several border conflicts it experienced later. Will China face the same fate as Ukraine does today?
The outcome is difficult to predict because our fate is in the hands of others. It was Chairman Mao and other leaders of the older generation who made wise decisions that took the initiative into their own hands and forced the enemy to worry about our nuclear weapons.
China's first atomic bomb exploded
End:
Also facing a huge dilemma, Ukraine has chosen to destroy nuclear weapons in the face of a large number of nuclear weapons in exchange for some economic benefits and protection from the great powers. However, China has chosen to face the difficulties and resist the pressure to develop nuclear weapons.
Two very different options, with completely different results. Today, China is getting richer and stronger and developing steadily. Ukraine, on the other hand, is in turmoil and unable to even defend itself.
The reason for this outcome is largely due to the gap at the decision-making level. We all say that the times make heroes, but heroes can also lead the development of the times to a large extent.
At the same time, the end of Ukraine also gives us a huge enlightenment: at any time, we must continue to improve ourselves, control our own destiny, and never put our own security on other countries.