Western countermeasures and sincerity! Sad Ukraine! After Russia made a major strategic move to recognize the independence of Luhansk and Doneesk, the West and Ukraine began to implement a series of countermeasures. For example, economic sanctions, disruption of energy cooperation, diplomatic condemnation, declaration of a national emergency, and so on.
But Jinyuan believes that there are three with major strategic impacts. The first operation is almost impossible, but strategically leading. The second one is definitely a faint move. The third is that it seems to be a faint move at the moment, but it is likely to be realized in the long run and will have a permanent impact.
First, nuclear ownership – the release of re-nuclear rhetoric
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine inherited much of the "legacy" of the former Soviet Union, including some nuclear weapons. In 1994, Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding, under which Ukraine's nuclear arsenal was abolished and the nuclear powers pledged to guarantee Ukraine's security.
As early as attending the Munich conference, Zelenskiy made remarks at the meeting on the 19th that he might withdraw from the Budapest Memorandum and refuse to be denuclearized, which allies, including the United States, did not expect.
According to the Ukrainian News Agency reported on the 22nd, on the same day, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry formally requested to hold consultations with the high-level members of the signatories to the Budapest memorandum to re-examine Ukraine's decision to "abandon nuclear weapons" in the 1990s.
It is absolutely impossible to regain nuclear weapons, Russia will not agree, and the United States will not! However, the release of the re-embrace of nuclear rhetoric and the small actions that may be matched with each other, such as the opening of nuclear laboratories, may raise the asking price for Russia and the United States in future negotiations at the strategic level, and may have a certain strategic implication.
Second, severing diplomatic relations – releasing remarks on the severance of diplomatic relations with Russia
On the 22nd local time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled the chargé d'affaires a.i. of the Ukrainian Embassy in Russia and suggested to President Zelenskiy to sever diplomatic relations with Russia. Russia said that Russia does not want to break diplomatic relations with Ukraine, which will make the situation more complicated.
If Ukraine resorts to the trick of severing diplomatic relations, it will definitely be a trick and a defeat. At present, the remarks of Putin and Lavrov have pointed directly to whether Ukraine has legal state status.
On February 21, local time, Putin said in a national television speech that Ukraine is not only a neighbor but also an inherent part of Russia's historical, cultural and spiritual space, and that the Ukrainian people are comrades and relatives of the Russian side and people who are related by blood. Historically, eastern Ukraine was subordinate to ancient Russia, and what is now Ukraine was created entirely by Russia, which never had its true state status.
Lavrov's remarks are more direct: the current Ukrainian government came to power through illegal channels, so it cannot represent all Ukrainian citizens, so the current Ukraine cannot be called a sovereign state.
If Ukraine breaks diplomatic relations with Russia, it ignores one of the subtexts of the severance of diplomatic relations, that is, it contains the meaning of not recognizing the other party as a country, so it will promote Russia's further non-recognition of Ukraine's state status.
So, it's definitely a trick.
Third, the "relocation of the capital" – the diplomatic and political center moved to Lviv
On February 14, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken announced the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Kiev in Ukraine and the "temporary" transfer of the small number of diplomats remaining in Kiev to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.
On February 18, Britain said its embassy in Ukraine would be temporarily relocated from the capital Kiev to Lviv in western Ukraine.
In parallel, considering Zelenskiy's security concerns, the U.S. government tried to persuade Zelenskiy to leave the capital Kiev and move to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.
Lviv is 600 km from Kiev and only 70 km from the Polish border.
These actions and manifestations potentially suggest the west's implications for inducing Ukraine to move its capital to Lviv. In the near term, it is a trick to withdraw the center of power from Kiev closer to the front of the struggle to Lviv in the rear when the country is in danger, which is bound to shake the morale of the people, and at the same time seems to be intended to potentially admit the expansion of the opponent! But in the long run, it is likely to be realized, because if the West moves the capital to Lviv, it will actually default to the Dnieper Belt of Ukraine centered on Kiev as a buffer zone between the West and Russia, and if Russia also accepts by default, the crisis will ease, and the West will no longer have to risk going to war with Russia to protect Ukraine!
