In the past two years, with the tightening of the property market regulation and control policy, the real estate industry has been cold, and house prices have slowly shown signs of falling, and many people are slowly losing confidence in the trend of future house prices. In the past for a long time, people were bullish on house prices, believing that house prices only rose and did not fall, as long as the house will appreciate. But now many people don't think so, especially after the significant decline in house prices in some areas in the second half of 2021, many people realize that houses will also bring losses to people and become a burden on people. For example, a fan of the author bought a house in early June 2021, and after only half a month, the developer launched a large number of special-priced houses, and the house price dropped by 30%. In this regard, the fan said that he lost nearly 400,000 yuan in 15 days, with an average loss of more than 30,000 yuan a day.
In fact, in 2021, many people have experienced the impact of the decline in house prices, especially some second-hand home owners who are ready to sell their houses, they find that not only the house prices have fallen, but the houses are not easy to sell. According to statistics, in 2021, the number of second-hand housing listings in most cities across the country is continuing to surge, and while the number of second-hand housing listings continues to rise, the price and transaction volume of second-hand houses have declined significantly. That is to say, at present, the second-hand housing market has fallen in volume and price, which means that even if the house price falls, it is difficult to sell the house. This phenomenon is not good news for many investors who own multiple apartments, which means that the houses in their hands may no longer bring them wealth, and may even become a burden to them. Of course, the fact that house prices are falling now does not mean that house prices will continue to fall, and in the past 20 years or so, house prices have also experienced several declines, and each time they have rebounded and risen and reached new highs. So, this time the house price fell, can it rebound in the future?
For this issue, this is probably something that most people are very concerned about at the moment. According to statistics, real estate fixed assets account for more than 70% of the total wealth of mainland urban households, which means that the house is the most important wealth of most families, and there is no one. Therefore, not to mention investors, that is, many buyers who just need to buy a house do not want house prices to fall all the time, but hope that house prices will continue to rise after they buy a house. However, unfortunately, according to the current property market environment, it is difficult for future house prices to continue to rise as in the past, mainly for the following 2 reasons: 1. Housing resources are no longer in short supply. In the past, the fundamental reason why house prices have been able to continue to rise for more than 20 years is the shortage of housing resources and the supply of housing is in short supply. But now the situation is different, although the urbanization construction is still continuing, but the current housing resources are really no longer in short supply. According to statistics, 96.86% of urban households in the country now have houses, with an average of 1.5 sets per household, and the urbanization rate of the national permanent population has exceeded 64%. In addition, in the past few years, there have been about 7.5 million new commercial houses built in the country every year, enough for 22.5 million people to live. In other words, even if urbanization continues, housing resources will no longer be scarce.
2, "housing is not speculated" or become a permanent control policy. As we all know, at present, many houses are held by speculators, and many people continue to be optimistic about the real estate industry, in fact, they also think that the future property market regulation and control policies will be relaxed. However, according to the current attitude of the state to the real estate industry, "housing is not speculation" will become the bottom line of the property market regulation and control policy, even if some cities relax the property market regulation policy, it will not break through this bottom line. In the environment of "housing is not fried", speculators will slowly lose their living space. Now that housing resources are no longer in short supply, and even many third- and fourth-tier cities have seriously surplus housing resources, it is difficult for house prices to continue to rise as in the past after losing investors.
From the above 2 points, it can be seen that when most people already have houses and the property market has lost the support of population and policies, house prices can no longer rise as in the past. So, in this case, will house prices really fall in the future? In fact, it is not, the future trend of house prices will most likely be differentiated, some regional house prices will continue to rise, and some regional house prices will fall. So, for our ordinary buyers, in the case of not being able to choose a city, how should we buy a house? In this regard, the knowledgeable pedestrians said that in the next 10 years, the closer the house is to these 3 locations, the more valuable it is, which is a real golden position.
First: a house close to transportation hubs such as subway and high-speed rail stations. Food, clothing, shelter and transportation are closely related to people's lives, and it is very important to travel in the city. In large cities, due to the traffic congestion, usually driving to and from work will also face congestion, and even some urban cars are limited. In this case, the advantages of the subway in large cities are reflected. Now the big cities are basically connected to the subway, many cities still have many subway lines, and the traffic is very developed. The subway is different from the bus, the subway is underground, the line is straight, the speed is fast, very convenient, but also relatively safe. Therefore, for houses close to subway stations, they will become more and more popular in the future.
Of course, in addition to subway stations, high-speed rail stations are also now transportation hubs, connecting cities. Especially for small cities, high-speed rail stations are very important, because through the high-speed rail stations, you can reach the surrounding big cities in about 1 hour, so the distance from the house to the high-speed rail station is very important.
Second, the house in the city near the lake park. Lakes and parks are very scarce resources in cities, especially for northern cities, lakes and parks are even more scarce. Nowadays, the city is full of high-rise buildings, traffic, very noisy, and the air quality is not good. For parks and lakes, it is like an emerald embedded in the city. And around the park and lake, due to the green trees, the air is fresh and relatively quiet, which is very suitable for life. In addition, if you live near parks and lakes, you usually have a place to exercise and relax after work, and the elderly and children also have a place to go. Therefore, over time, houses around lakes and parks will become more and more scarce, and the value will naturally become higher and higher.
Third, the suburbs of provincial capitals. Now all provinces are implementing the strategy of strengthening the provincial capital, which means that the speed of development of provincial capital cities will become faster and faster in the future, for example, in the past two years, Zhengzhou City in Henan Province and Jinan City in Shandong Province have developed faster and faster under the strategy of strengthening provincial capitals. For provincial capital cities, the current downtown housing prices are already relatively high, but many provincial capital cities suburban housing prices are not too high, and these areas belong to new urban areas, the future planning will be very good, basically there are subway planning. Therefore, for the houses in the suburban areas of these provincial capital cities, with the development and expansion of the city, it will become more and more popular in the future.
Summary: In the long run, the house is still inhabited by people, so it is still necessary to analyze the value of the house from the perspective of residence. In addition to the impact of the development potential of different cities, the quality of housing is very important, in the context of housing is not speculated, people will only be willing to pay for a good house that is comfortable to live in. What are your views and insights on this?