Live bar On February 23, Beijing time, in the early morning of tomorrow, the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals, Manchester United challenged Atletico Madrid away. De Gea and Oblak, the two names often appear in the discussion of the best goalkeepers of the past. People standing at opposite ends of the field looking across the sea, will they be the deciders of the game?
Analysis site Analyst tries to glimpse a corner of the future through the data of the two door gods
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United have not met Atletico Madrid in Europe since the Cup Winners' Cup Round of 16 in 91/92. The Sheets won 4-1 on aggregate and Aragonese defeated Ferguson.
At the time, United were one year away from their first of Ferguson's 13 league titles, while Atletico would win the Copa del Rey and la Liga in 1996. Two decades later, Atletico and Manchester United meet again in the Champions League round of 16, a match that is more than a win for both sides, but the only way to save their respective bad seasons.
Under Lonnick, United have become more determined and have fewer loopholes, losing just once in 90 minutes since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer left at the end of November. But in the 15 games under the interim manager, they have not been tested by strong opponents. As for Atletico, as the defending champions of La Liga, they are already 15 points behind Real Madrid, and at the same time as Ronico, Atletico have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 8 of these 15 matches.
They're all evenly matched but mentally retarded — occasionally flashing in offense but always feeling uneasy defensively. So, for the goalkeeper, a huge pressure ensued.
It will be De Gea's first meeting with Atletico since his move to Manchester United in 2011. He probably didn't expect to win fewer league titles than his old clubs over the next decade, but that's another story.
De Gea will undoubtedly be at the Wanda Metropolitano, as his performance could once again call himself one of the best players in the goalkeeper position – but Oblak doesn't seem to be.
We know United's defence has been very fragile this season. In all the competitions, they scored a total of 465 shots from their opponents, placing them 5th among the top five league teams. Of those shots, 168 were corrected, which ranked 3rd. Of particular concern is the fact that 21 shots on goal came directly from United's own mistakes, second only to Sevilla (23).
Number of shots were corrected The number of goals conceded
Looking at the expected goals scored, United face a figure of 51.1, ranking 3rd in the top five leagues. However, they conceded 44 goals, about 7 fewer than expected. Undoubtedly, this is largely due to De Gea.
In the Premier League alone, De Gea made 96 saves on 128 shots, with a save rate of 73.4%. No other goalkeeper has made so many saves, with only Leeds United's Meslier having been shot more often, but he conceded 50 goals and De Gea 34. Expected conceded goals minus the number of goals conceded (excluding oolong balls), we can calculate how many "must-scores" a goal will be blocked by saving. De Gea's figure is 7.1, the premier league.
White - save, red - conceded, the bigger the circle the higher the quality of the shot
Counting all the games, de Gea has the most shots on goal of any of the big five league teams, with the exception of Leicester City's Schmeichel, which shows how vulnerable United are in a no-ball situation. Looking at the indicator above, De Gea's number is 7.86 – in other words, he blocked about 8 "must-scores". In the entire Continent, there are only two goalkeepers more.
In the past, saves and high save rates have been something Oblak prides himself on. Since his debut at Atletico in September 2014, he is the goalkeeper with the most clean sheets in the top five leagues (167) and is third with a save rate of 76.5%. Since then, Oblak has blocked 51 "must-score goals", at least four more than any other goalkeeper and nearly 20 more than De Gea. But the numbers have only made his form this season even more disturbing.
In all competitions, Oblak has faced 50 fewer shots on target than De Gea this season – meaning Atletico are better defensive than United, but he conceded five more goals than De Gea. Oblak made 61 saves, but the save rate was only 57%, which is even a "cliff slide" with 76.5% of his career.
In La Liga alone, using the same calculations, Oblak's number is -8.6, meaning he conceded at least 8 more goals than expected. For a goalkeeper who has always ranked high in this indicator, this is simply a big surprise. Of all the goalkeepers in Europe's top flight, only Bordeaux's Costil is more than him (-13.2).
Of course, the value of a goalkeeper is no longer just the number of saves, but these numbers are a good example of how well the goalkeeper is doing in his basic business. Will the 15-goal gap between De Gea and Oblak be the weight that tilts the balance around this showdown?
（WinksK4）