No one expected that during the Winter Olympics, an Argentine ambassador to China would actually say something like," "Without the Communist Party, there would be no New China."
He also gave himself a Chinese name, Niu Wangdao.
Later, in an interview, he said that he really "felt it and naturally revealed it." ”
In fact, whether in China or Argentina, Niu Wangdao seized the opportunity to keep saying good things about China.
And he is not the only Argentine official like this.
Argentina's new president, Fernandez, is also very "rooted in the red", and the first stop to visit China is the Party History Museum, becoming the first supreme foreign leader to visit the Chinese Party History Museum.
Not only that, he also visited chairman Mao's memorial hall.
However, don't look at Argentina now acting like a Chinese fan, 5 years ago, it was impossible to see such a scene, and even the relationship between the two countries was once deadlocked.
So, how did Argentina's attitude toward China change dramatically?
Everything must start with a rich second generation named Macri.
01
Macri is a standard rich man.
By the time he was born, the Macri Group, founded by his father, was already one of the largest in Argentina, operating in a variety of industries including construction, automotive, litigation, garbage recycling and the food industry.
Thanks to his father's position in the country, business and political leaders in various countries were regular customers in the family, and Macri grew up in high society.
When he was in college, Macri chose to go to the Catholic University of Argentina to study civil engineering, and became a colleague with the big mammoth. The difference is that as soon as he graduated, he was assigned by his father to work in a subsidiary of the family business.
If it weren't for a kidnapping in 1991, the plot would probably have ended in a boring ending of "the president's son inherits the family business under his father's arrangement".
At that time, Argentina had a very unique "extortion gang". The gang of more than 30 people, all "Argentine Federal Police".
The police act as kidnappers, specifically kidnapping rich people, this kind of novel section, actually happened in reality.
After 14 days in prison and a ransom of several million dollars before being released, Macri, as a nobleman, obviously could not swallow this breath.
What's even more infuriating is that the gang is not addicted to kidnapping Macri, and in 2003 they kidnapped his sister again.
But at this time, Macri was just a businessman, and there was nothing he could do about these policemen. There are only two ways to get out of this breath.
One way is to hire someone to fix the gang. But in any country, assaulting a police officer is a felony. In the event of an exposure, the entire Macri family could collapse.
The second way is to become an official. Exercise power to deal with the gang "reasonably and legally".
So Macri decided to become the chairman of the Boca Youth Team.
In 1995, his father was really embarrassed, so he had to agree to Macri's request, and Macri got what he wanted.
People outside of Argentina may have a hard time imagining how much this experience will help Macri run for president in the future.
Argentina is a football-obsessed country, and football stars are equated with national heroes in the hearts of the people. Boca Youth, on the other hand, is one of the best clubs in Argentina.
During Macri's 12 years at the helm, the club won 17 championship trophies and set a record of 40 unbeaten games. The team's perennial lack of money has also improved, and even began to make a profit.
He himself became the most honored chairman in the history of the team, and was known throughout the country.
The Argentine people's love for football is also projected on Macri.
A sports store owner told the American media NPR that When Macri is the president of the football club, then the people believe that he will be able to be president.
So in 2015, Macri became the president of Argentina with more than 57% approval.
In this game, Macri was right.
However, as a president who ran for office with some "personal feelings", Macri appeared incompetent.
His way of governing the country was mainly to attract investment and borrow money.
During the campaign, he promised to bring an "investment boom" to Argentina. Argentina's largest investor and creditor country has always been the United States.
Publicly, the United States is Argentina's biggest financier and neighbor; privately, as early as the 1990s, the Macri family had frequent contact with the Trump family, often playing on the golf course.
As a result, Macri, with "personal feelings", showed excessive enthusiasm for the United States as soon as he came to power.
It even makes people wonder whether the United States has privately promised Macri some benefits that cannot be rejected.
After all, Macri's previous two administrations were pro-China. During this period, China continued to squeeze out U.S. investment and influence in Argentina.
It is not difficult to understand why Obama, after becoming president of the United States, urgently began to repair THE RELATIONSHIP between the United States and Argentina.
One affectionate and one intentional, the United States and Argentina soon ushered in a brief honeymoon period.
In 2015, the United States trumpeted China's "information leakage." And Macri, who has just been in office for three months, has been preaching about the nuclear power project signed by the previous president Christina and China, and there is "opaque" behavior, suggesting that the contract will be broken.
In 2016, Obama visited Argentina, ending a 20-year long exclusion of the U.S. president from Argentina. That same year, Argentine warships sank Chinese fishing boats. At the end of the year, five consecutive anti-dumping investigations against China were launched in one day.
In 2018, Macri, along with Trump and Prince Harry, was selected by Time magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential People in the World in 2018. That same year, Macri applied for a $50 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.
In the IMF, the United States has more than 17% of the voting weight of the resolution, which is 4% more than the second place Japan and the third place China combined, and is the only country that can exercise the "one-vote veto".
U.S. President Donald Trump even called Macri and instructed him to borrow money from the IMF to "get through the storm."
However, the obedient Macri was not paid for by the United States, but by continuous oppression. But all the pillar industries in Argentina have received special "care" from the United States.
Argentina has a large area of fertile black land, and agriculture is a pillar industry. The area of the farm and pasture accounts for more than half of the country's land area, known as the "world's granary and meat storehouse".
However, in the years when Argentina and China were good friends, the United States banned the import of Argentine beef for a long time.
It was not until the last year of Obama's term that he promised to lift the ban on Argentine lemons, beef and other agricultural products. As a result, Trump, an old friend of the Macri family, immediately halted the Obama administration's agricultural import trade agreement with Argentina as soon as he took office.
It is estimated that if the ban is lifted, Argentina is expected to increase its revenue by at least $250 million a year through beef exports.
In addition, Argentina's demand for oil is high, but domestic refining technology is very crotch-pulling.
In 2019, Argentina exported the most products to the United States, crude oil, reaching $964 million. Then, $1.41 billion of refined oil was imported from the United States.
In order to alleviate its dependence on oil, since 2008, Argentina has begun to develop biofuels, that is, to extract high-quality biodiesel and fuel ethanol from soybean oil and soybean by-products.
In 2012, biodiesel production was 2.46 million tons, ranking first in the world, of which 1.6 million tons were exported.
Beginning in 2012, the United States became Argentina's largest importer of biofuels. In 2016, 90 percent of biofuels were sold to the United States, worth more than $1.2 billion.
After Trump took office in 2017, he began a countervailing investigation into Argentine biofuels.
In the end, Argentina did not usher in the expected "investment boom", but ushered in the sequelae of loans.
02
As early as 2008, Argentina's Trade Chronicle reported that Argentines are one of the most loan-consuming peoples in the world, and even a pillow can be borrowed.
So Macri isn't the first Argentine president to borrow from the IMF.
Loan-addicted Argentina has been the IMF's largest debtor.
Although the loan borrowed from the IMF can alleviate the immediate need, the price that Argentina has paid for it is huge and far-reaching.
In order to get Argentina to pay back, the IMF set three "rules":
1. Save money and ask the government to cut public spending.
2. Selling rights cannot set a threshold for foreign capital to enter the market.
3. Make harsh donations and increase all tax rates other than non-tariffs.
In this way, Argentina's domestic infrastructure has no money to build, and the domestic industry has no money to support, but has become a paradise for foreign-funded enterprises.
It is for this reason that Argentina's decades of industrial output have been almost zero.
As early as the 1930s, after the Great Depression, Argentina's agricultural exports were frustrated, and the Argentine government, aware of the problem, began to vigorously develop industry.
To that end, Argentina has embarked on a "local protectionist" path, keeping imports out of the way by constructing high tariff barriers.
In an environment of overprotectiveness and lack of competition, Argentina's indigenous industry has not yet passed the "infant industrial period": efficiency crotch pulling, craft crotch pulling, workers' ability pulling crotch.
At this time, the government suddenly demolished the wall, so that the local enterprises that had been mixed in the novice village were immediately washed away in the face of the various big bosses that suddenly poured in.
Enterprises that fail to compete, if they finally fail to pay for money, can only sell their assets.
According to statistics, due to default, 70% of Argentine companies have been collectively bottomed out by European and American big capital groups within 5 years. Since then, as soon as they see the IMF alphabet (the order in Spanish is FMI), Argentines have scolded the street.
And that's not to mention, the IMF requires Argentina to allow foreign capital to freely convert currency.
Initially, the Argentine government severely restricted the free convertibility of the dollar, and private depositors could not buy dollars. In the face of the depreciating Argentine peso, this measure can not stop everyone's enthusiasm for dollars.
The massive demand for the dollar has spawned a black market for the dollar.
When this restriction was lifted, it immediately caused a boom in the exchange of dollars, and even for a time there was a situation that the dollar was not enough to be exchanged. The dollar's exchange rate against the peso also soared, so that the peso, which was already on the road to depreciation, began to drive wildly.
Thus, in Argentina, the IMF, which has brought wealth disaster to the people, is like a creditor of usury. It seems to solve the debt of the moment, but it creates a larger debt.
And, according to the "rules" set by the IMF, Argentina may never be able to repay its loans.
After Macri took office, in order to solve the short-term debt problem, in the face of domestic pressure, heeded Trump's advice and applied for two loans totaling $70 billion to the IMF. This move even triggered the national anger of Argentina.
Macri himself was weak-hearted, so he repeatedly assured the people that he would never move the IMF's money unless he had to.
As a result, less than 3 months after saying this, I was "forced" to move this money. As soon as the news came out, the peso plummeted by 20% in 48 hours.
If you borrow money from the IMF, you have to do it according to the IMF's requirements. Once again, Argentina is stuck in the old path of cutting public spending, freely convertible currency, and high taxes.
As a result, Macri spent more than $83 billion outflows during his tenure.
Just in the final days of Macri's term, two Argentine officials filed a lawsuit in court alleging that Macri's borrowing from the IMF was allegedly unconstitutional and that Macri himself was suspected of malfeasance and abuse of power.
In the indictment, the two officials said Macri "made the deal with the IMF in violation of the national constitution because Macri does not have the authority to enforce the agreement, and its purpose is simply to be re-elected." ”
They did not spare the IMF, and in the indictment accused: You yourself have stipulated that you do not give loans to countries with serious capital outflows, so why did you violate the regulations when you came to Macri? There must be fraud in between.
It was also because in the last year of Macri's term, Argentina's foreign exchange reserves were almost hollowed out, and it had to open foreign exchange controls again.
Coincidentally, exchange controls are precisely the economic policies of his presidential rival, Fernandez.
In the end, in the 2019 presidential election, Macri lost to Fernandez, the "root of the seedlings".
03
Compared to Macri, Fernandez's background is a bit like Harry Potter and Malfoy.
If you can't fight Daddy, you can only fight ability.
Fernandez studied law at the University of Buenos Aires, became a professor of criminal law, and was just awarded the honorary professorship by Tsinghua University this year.
Although far less well-known among the public than The football-loving Macri, Fernandez has won the political performance.
He became Chief Cabinet Minister in 2003. During his term of office, he assisted former President Kirchner in successfully stabilizing the Argentine economic situation. He continued to hold the position after Kirchner gave way to his wife Christina.
Kirchner itself is an example of winning a presidential election by strength.
He was elected governor of Santa Cruz in 1991, and for 12 years, he was re-elected for three consecutive terms, earning the title of "undefeated candidate".
During this period, Kirchner exchanged existing resources such as oil and fisheries for money, and then used the money earned to vigorously develop infrastructure, forcing this remote province in Argentina and even the southernmost part of South America with a population of less than 200,000, with a poverty rate of 9%, unemployment as low as 3%, and fiscal revenues turning into profits.
Santa Cruz has even become one of Argentina's wealthiest provinces, ranking first in 2008 for per capita GPD among the nation's 24 provinces and federal capital region.
In 2003, Kirchner won the presidential race very smoothly and ushered in the era of so-called "economic growth 2003-2015".
Argentina's GDP rose sharply during this period.
After Macri came to power, GDP began to fall again. Today, the responsibility of achieving the "great renaissance" of Argentina is entrusted to Fernandez.
Only this time, he faced greater difficulties.
With 300 billion yuan of external debt to be repaid, equivalent to 90% of GDP, only repeated applications for deferrals and debt restructuring can be applied for.
At the same time, he must also deal with the following "mess":
GDP plummeted by 10%, investment fell by 38%, poverty rose to 42%, and the number of children living in poverty reached 57.7% of the number of 14-year-olds...
Back in 2019, the IMF predicted a negative growth rate of 3.1% for the Argentine economy, with annual inflation as high as 57.3%.
Even Fernandez himself admits that Argentina is only one step away from an economic crisis.
The whole world believes that Argentina can't cross this hurdle on its own, and Argentines think so. So Macri went to the United States, and it turned out to be even more crotch-pulling.
As Dr. Gallagher, director of the Center for Global Development Policy at Boston University, said, "Argentina can only find a backer than China."
After Kirchner came to power, he vigorously promoted Sino-Arab cooperation and has been trying to upgrade Argentina's industrial base, public works and public services, and Argentina has achieved an annual economic growth of 8%.
Fernandez, who came to power in 2019, cooperated with China more deeply than his old boss, and the Argentine economy achieved 10% growth in 2021, becoming the country with the highest global economic growth rate.
China is now Argentina's largest trading partner.
According to media statistics, in 2021, Argentina's total imports and exports to China will be nearly 19.7 billion US dollars, accounting for 14% of Argentina's total imports and exports, much higher than the 7.64% of the United States and 4.03% of India.
China has also shown great confidence in Argentina.
China's investment in Argentina is not simply to chase the rise and kill the fall to make quick money, but to continuously learn the actual situation of the local area, according to the local political, economic, cultural, geographical and other characteristics, according to local conditions to invest.
Argentina is rich in lithium ore. The proven reserves of lithium brine in the Puna Plateau have reached 13.9 million tons, accounting for about 22% of the global lithium resources, the second largest in the world.
But Argentina has no mining and purification technology, no transport routes, and no money to invest. And All of this, China has.
In 2021, Chinese companies accelerated their investment in lithium mines and production capacity in Argentina. In October of the same year, Zijin Mining Group acquired Canadian miner Neo Lithium Corp for $770 million and its lithium brine project in northern Argentina.
With the accumulation of lithium extraction technology in the "harsh" salt lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Chinese enterprises have suddenly driven the technological change of the local salt lake lithium extraction industry, and the output has been rapidly increased, and Argentina is expected to enter the new energy era faster.
Compared with lithium mines, Argentina's oil and gas reserves are not so rich, and China has invested in the construction of solar and nuclear power plants in Argentina according to local conditions.
On February 1, 2022, Argentina Nuclear Power Corporation and CNNC, CNNC China Zhongyuan and China Zhongyuan Argentina Branch officially signed the Argentine Atucha III nuclear power plant project, which will start before the end of the year.
According to the information disclosed by the Argentine Nuclear Power Company, the investment amounted to 8 billion US dollars, more than 50 billion yuan.
This time, Argentina had clearly found the right partner.
End
It can be said that in Argentina, the infrastructure facilities related to the national economy and people's livelihood are indispensable to China's figure.
Before 2015, to transport goods from the Argentine province of Salta to Santa Fe, more than 1,000 kilometers away, it relied on old trucks that had been in service for an average of more than 50 years and drove slowly at a speed of 12 km / h. Since Argentina built the Belgrano Railway and replaced it with new locomotives, transport times have been cut by more than half.
The 1,700-kilometer Belgrano Railway, which has been in service for 13 years, began renovations in 2013 and has completed 858 kilometers of renovation by June 2021. It used to take 15 days to walk, but now it only takes 7 days, and it can be shortened to 3 days in the future.
After Fernandez came to power, Argentina resumed its railway cooperation project with China, planning to invest another $1.7 billion in the future.
According to the Argentine Railway Freight Company, traffic in February 2021 increased by 43% compared to the same period in 2019. Argentina does not dare to think about this kind of speed, and the United States will not think about it at all.
Former pro-American Argentine President Menem once described the United States and Argentina as a "carnal relationship", and Argentina exchanged "meat" for American money.
Only China truly sees Argentina as a mutually beneficial "partnership."
Today, 80 percent of Argentines prefer investment from China.
This is the win-win pattern, and this is the mind of a big country.
Coldplay Labs Collation Editor
Resources:
Jiang Shixue: A Lesson from the Rise and Fall of Argentina in the Past Century
China Daily Website Global Online: "Argentines Buy Pillows and Loans"
City Observatory:《Criminal Complaint against Macri and his officials for the Agreement with the IMF》
Javier Luqi: Chinese Direct Investment in Argentina: Illusions and Facts
Li Renfang: Review and Commentary on Macri's Economic Policy
El País:《MAURICIO MACRI, the president of DISILLUSIONMENT》
García Beaudoux, Virginia, D'adamo, Orlando and Zubieta, Elena Mercedes:《Evaluation of the leadership and historical memory of four Argentine presidents: Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem, Fernando de la Rua and Néstor Kirchner》