On February 18, Atlantic Storm Eunice hit the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and other European countries, causing many deaths, and causing a large number of flight cancellations, train suspensions and ferry suspensions, and thousands of people suffered power outages.
In the isle of Wight in the south of England, gusts of wind exceeded 196 km/h, setting a new regional record in England. The Met Office issued a red warning for storms to remind people to avoid going out. European meteorologists say Eunice may be the strongest storm Britain has encountered in nearly 30 years.
China Meteorological News invited Huang Bin, chief engineer of the National Meteorological Center and senior engineer of the research level, Liu Yunyun, chief engineer of the National Climate Center and senior engineer of the research level, and Luo Yali, researcher of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, to discuss the storm "Eunice".
01. How strong is "Eunice"?
Storm Eunice, which developed over Ireland, swept over parts of the United Kingdom on 18 February, then advanced toward northern France and Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and then continued deeper into Denmark and Germany.
In the isle of Wight in the south of England, "Eunice" gusts exceeded 196 km/h, setting a new Regional Record for England.
So, what is the concept of a wind speed of 196 km / h? On the mainland, tropical cyclones are generally divided into tropical storms, typhoons, strong typhoons, super typhoons, etc. according to their level. The gust speed is more than 196 km/h, which is about 54.4 m/s by the general standard of the mainland, which translates into a typhoon level of 16, which is a super typhoon level.
On Feb. 18, in Blackpool, England, huge waves crashed against the embankment. Storm "Eunice" hit many parts of the United Kingdom on the 18th. In the isle of Wight in the south of England, gusts of wind exceeded 196 km/h, setting a new regional record in England. According to local media reports, the storm has killed 3 people in england. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
As a result, experts expect that this may be the strongest and most catastrophic storm the UK has suffered in nearly 30 years.
The extremes of this weather event can also be seen from the early warnings of the British Weather Service. At 11am on 18 February, the Met Office issued the highest level of storm red alert covering the coastlines of Devon, Cornwall and Somerset, as well as South Wales. Just a few hours later (4am local time), the Met Office issued a second red alert covering much of south-east England, and it was the first time that the British capital, London, issued a "red alert".
In the Met Office's early warning system, a red alert means "dangerous weather is expected, which is likely to pose a threat to life, travel, energy supplies may be largely disrupted, and property and infrastructure may be subjected to extensive damage." ”
In addition to Britain, the storm hit much of northern Germany, which declared a red alert and was subsequently lifted; the Netherlands issued a red weather warning, hundreds of flights were cancelled and trains were suspended.
02. What is the impact of "Eunice"?
It can be said that everywhere you go, it is a mess!
Millions of homes and businesses in Europe lost power and transport networks were thrown into chaos. The top of London's O2 stadium was torn apart by high winds, exposing part of the stadium's internal structure. Danish ferry operator United Shipping Company announced on the 18th that in view of the wind and waves, the English Channel will suspend ferries between Dover, England and Calais, France.
According to the British Meteorological Department and related media sources, the strong winds, rain and other weather brought by "Eunice" caused at least 9 deaths in the United Kingdom, damaged power facilities in many places, traffic interruptions, a large number of houses and buildings were damaged, trees fell, more than 200,000 households were interrupted by electricity, and more than 400 flights were cancelled. In addition, at least 12 people in Ireland, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany lost their lives as a result of the strong storm.
The Mainland Central Meteorological Observatory also forecasts subsequent weather trends: in the next two days, there will be a westerly belt low pressure system moving eastward from the North Atlantic to Western Europe. Compared to the strong Storm Eunice on February 18, the new system has a northerly and weaker impact range, with still category 6 to 7 winds and weak precipitation in the western and southern parts of the United Kingdom, the English Channel, and the northern coast of Western Europe.
Continental FY-3D satellite monitoring image February 19, 2022 (Bureau map) Photo/National Satellite Meteorological Center
Continental FY-3D satellite monitoring image February 19, 2022 (large-scale map) Photo/National Satellite Meteorological Center
03. Why is Eunice so strong?
From the perspective of cause, it is two forces that are "entangled".
Before Eunice, Britain had not yet emerged from the effects of Storm Dudley. In fact, the series of storms that have recently hit Europe are all temperate cyclones. The force of this cyclone is very unusual, basically dominating the weather process in western Europe in the winter, and the most intense cyclone has a huge social and economic impact on the coast due to the strong winds and storm surges it brings when it makes landfall.
The "temperament" of a temperate cyclone is different from that of a tropical cyclone, which is the product of a fierce confrontation between cold and warm air, which appears along with the front, and sometimes forms 2 to 5 extratropical cyclones on the same front, advancing sequentially from west to east.
The emergence of this European storm cluster is the result of a strong confrontation between two forces over the Atlantic, cold air and warm air. So where do these two forces come from?
Affected by global warming and the La Niña event, the surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean has been unusually warm since February, and the subtropical high pressure of the Atlantic Ocean has been abnormally strong.
At the same time, polar vortexes are biased towards the Atlantic Ocean and the European continent, forming a relatively stable front in the mid-high latitudes of the Atlantic, creating very favorable conditions for the formation of extratropical cyclones. Cold air masses from the polar regions rapidly moved south into the westerly wind belt, which helped the cyclone to maintain stability and continue to develop, while the southern part of the United Kingdom continued to be affected by abnormal westerly winds in the south of the cyclone system, eventually forming a strong storm event.
In addition, the reason why the storm caused such a huge damage is likely to be related to a "scorpion" hovering over the eastern Atlantic.
This "scorpion" is a thorny rapid, a thin and narrow air flow that can form inside a storm and produce strong winds within an area of up to 100 kilometers. The thorny rapids resemble scorpions in the sky in that it moves with a storm like a thorn on a scorpion's tail. A strong thorny rapid is like a storm production line, constantly producing new storms every day or two. It is the core of strong winds, sometimes forming in areas of rapidly strengthening low pressure and extending to the ground.
Spiny jet streams occur in certain types of extratropical cyclones. These air currents form about 5 kilometers above the surface and then descend to the southwest side of the cyclone, close to its center, accelerating continuously in the process and bringing fast-moving air from the upper atmosphere for 1 to 12 hours.
Spiny rapids are unpredictable and relatively rare, which makes storms more dangerous. A classic example is the "Great Storm" that occurred in 1987, when 18 people were killed in the UK alone and 15 million trees were blown down by winds that blew at winds of more than 160 km/h.
On February 18, a large tree in London, England, was blown to the ground. Source: Xinhua News Agency
04. Will there be more strong storms in the future?
In recent years, extreme weather and climate events have occurred frequently, and events of strong weather in Europe have been reported frequently, so will strong storm events become more frequent in the future?
Last year, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters analyzed heavy rainstorms in Europe and found that the frequency of future heavy rain storms in Europe is likely to increase significantly due to climate change. Scientists estimate that by the end of the century, these slow-moving storms could occur 14 times more frequently on land.
It can be seen that the changes in extreme storms are significant and will lead to an increase in the frequency of devastating floods throughout Europe. Heavy precipitation from storms can cause stagnant water, flooding, or devastating effects.
Studies have found that as climate change accelerates, the UK will experience more intense storms, most of which will come from spiny rapids.
Global warming could lead to more storms with strong winds. Climate model projections suggest that the frequency and potential damage of european storms will increase in the future, but climate models do not yet accurately represent spiny rapids, local rapids that could significantly increase potential damage.
Projections of future climate suggest that by 2100, the proportion of cyclones with "spiny jets" precursors will increase to 45 percent, while the proportion of explosive cyclones with "spike jets" precursors (referred to as cyclones whose central pressure drops by more than 24 hpPa in a 24-hour period) will increase from 9 percent to 14 percent. This suggests that in future climates, the risk of wind-related winds from explosive cyclones with "spiny rapids" precursors in Europe will increase significantly.
The frequent occurrence of extreme events in recent years has sounded the alarm for mankind. In the North Pacific, storms of this intensity, such as those experienced by the United Kingdom, tend to occur in the waters near the northerly Pacific Ocean (the Sea of Japan).
In the context of the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events, it is necessary to strengthen the ability to monitor, forecast and predict, risk prediction and impact assessment of weather and climate, provide fine, accurate and reliable weather and climate information and products; enhance the service capabilities for the needs of users in industry fields, and focus on the development and provision of impact-based forecast assessment products, so that weather and climate information products can be applied to climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience construction.
Source: China Meteorological Administration