Zhu Wenhui, potash analyst of Baichuan Yingfu
Both China and India have signed a potash contract on February 15, and India on February 14
The price of the signing is 590 US dollars / ton. Compared to last year's potash contract, which was $247 last year, it was up
up to $343. According to the current exchange rate, it is converted into RMB, and the current import cost is 4200 yuan / ton left
right.
The current domestic price of potash fertilizer is also basically at this level, and now the cost of imports is basically and and
Domestic prices are flat.
Now in terms of the domestic market, it is mainly the period from before the Spring Festival to the time after the Spring Festival due to the overall supply of the market
It is in a relatively tight state, including imports are very small in quantity, and the national reserve is from January of 22 years
It has been suspended, and then like during the Spring Festival, domestic large manufacturers are basically in one and a half
Open or stop production and maintenance of the situation, the import of the supply of goods is relatively small, after the Spring Festival, and then the overall market
The supply is also maintained in a relatively tight situation, resulting in an upward trend in the price.
Now the national side is starting on February 18th is to reopen the release of the national reserve open, and then may
There is a certain supplement to the supply of the market. Now the demand for spring ploughing is also gradually opened, and the supply of spring ploughing here
There should be some relief.
The supply of large contracts depends on the arrival of goods in the later stage. At present, it is only signed with Canada
The big contract, followed by russia and Belarus, the situation in this regard is not yet determined, and then white
Russia's sanctions may still have a certain impact on imports in the later stages.
The arrival of the large contract in the later stage is basically a cycle of about one month, if the late arrival is relatively slow,
There may be an impact on supply. If the arrival of large contracts in the later period is relatively slow, it is not excluded that it is in the spring
During the ploughing period, there may be a slight increase in prices. Later prices are supported by large contract cost prices
Next, there will be no more obvious pullback.
Q: The impact of large contracts on the price of potash fertilizer in China as a whole, and the continuity of potash prices in the whole world
sound
A: This year's international potash price is from.
The price of potash fertilizer has seen a sharp rise since the beginning of June-August last year, and it seems to be except for now
Outside of China and India. Others like Southeast Asia and Brazil are basically priced at $600-700
on a high position.
Last year, the international price was the reason for the increase, and the international suppliers stopped production and reduced production.
As a result, the supply of potash fertilizers has decreased, which has driven up the price of potash fertilizers. In the main consumer market last year, the government has some supportive subsidy policies, which are also positive for prices. plus
Last year's weather conditions were positive for planting, boosting palm oil and grain prices, as well as the use of potash fertilizers
An upswing that pushes international prices upwards. Combined EU and U.S. sanctions against Belarus have boosted potash prices
The sharp upward movement of the grid.
China and India are the largest importers of potash fertilizers, and the price of China and India has a certain support for the price in the later period
Braced. China and India have now reached a big contract, which is expected to be Belarus and Russia
The price of Ross is basically at a considerable level.
Because the price is relatively high now, although the price of grain has risen, it may be accepted to the downstream in the later stage
There is a certain impact. In 2022, the international community is also expected to put into operation some new capacity. International production
The supply will also increase. The demand for the international potash market in 22 years may have declined
The price of international potash fertilizer will not fall by a large and significant range, and it is basically to maintain a relatively high level of water
flat. Later, we also need to pay attention to the export situation of Belarus in the later period to see if it will cause a certain amount of damage to the market
Reduction in supply.
Q: Although India said that last year there was a large contract price, for example, it was affected by the lack of bidding, and the bulk
The price is also constantly changing, and there is a certain increase as if there have been several changes, such as if in the market
After a certain upturn in sentiment, will countries like India change big contract prices?
A: Last year, India signed two more big contracts, 247-280-445, both
Because the international price continues to rise, it will lead to less imports, and its price will continue to be high.
This year's currently signed price is basically the highest price in the past 10 years.
If the international price falls, it should not change the reserve price situation in the large amount.
Because both India and China have signed big contracts with potassium, other importers such as Russia and Belarus
Ear Russia, according to the current international price, should not have a particularly high increase.
Regarding the changes in supply and demand throughout the world, because of the uncertainties of Belarus, it is indeed impossible to judge in advance.
Q: The rhythm of the release of new capacity
A: There are statistics in 22 years, if all the production capacity is successfully put into production, it is basically about 2 million tons
The increment is basically concentrated in Russia and Belarus, as well as Laos.
China Agricultural International and two open source projects in Laos will increase production capacity by 2 million yuan if they are fully promoted
Tons or so. The time node is basically in the second half of the year. In the current short term, the price of international potash fertilizer will not have a significant decline, because it is now whole
The uncertainty of the body is still relatively strong, and the situation in Belarus is still waiting and seeing, and then it is expected that their exports can be
There will be a reduction in energy.
I would like to ask Mr. Su to give us an analysis of whether the signing of a large contract will lead to a certain return of the domestic price
They will still have the blessing of policies to change the entire operating trend.
At the current large contract price.
Judging from this level in previous years, the price of large contracts has risen sharply, and imports have become
This will definitely be improved, the current market situation, basically and the cost is similar, the later national side should be
It will introduce some policies, because if it falls again, it will definitely lead to losses for enterprises.
Now the current price is a relatively high price for downstream terminal procurement, in February this year
The price of the national reserve that began on the 18th was still maintained at about 3,000 yuan. Later, if only the auction is opened
Words, the amount is not enough.
In the later stage, some subsidy policies and the like may be introduced, and if the price declines, it will definitely cause a negative impact on the enterprise
picul.
Q: The supply of domestic potassium is about half, and the second largest part comes from Guomao or from
Import large contracts, including border trade, and then want to ask about the price of large contracts for the price of border trade shadow
sound?
A: Border trade is independent of large contracts, which is equivalent to signing a separate contract every month, which will be based on the market
And international prices will be adjusted, but also according to the surrounding market, like the northeast and north China these major demand markets
The needs of the field are to make a change. Perhaps in the later period, the price of border trade may have a downward trend.
The price of domestic manufacturers may be affected by national policies, first of all, issued to the first generation
Then its price in the market may be adjusted according to the market price, and the market price will be higher than the factory
Home quotation, the current market, its price of domestic transaction price is actually around 4000 ~ 4100
It is basically a case of a price slightly lower than the spoken price.
In fact, the price of domestic retail is similar to the price of large contracts. The factory price has no specific price, one
Generally is the price of the manufacturer, if it is according to the market, it must be basically consistent with the market, but because of the country
Home is now a pair of restrictions, it does not allow manufacturers to appear high prices. Now it may be the manufacturer's factory price comparison
Low, but later words in the market may cause traders to cause the market transaction price to rise, and then basically
It will be the same as the current market price. If the state only restricts manufacturers, but does not limit the retail price of the end, for manufacturers and farmers
There is no benefit to the people, but to give all the profits to the traders.
If the domestic potash manufacturers, their ex-factory price is currently 34902 months
There should be no major changes in prices, and by March the price should now rise slightly. Because
At present, the gap between the transaction price and the manufacturer's quotation has been relatively large, and it may be raised by about 100 yuan later. Probably bad
No more than 3600 pieces.
Q: Because since last year, the country should have released a small amount of potash fertilizer from the national reserves
What is the release of potash fertilizer from the national reserves so far? Then you wonder if there will be one in the future of this piece of the National Reserve
What kind of changes?
A: The national reserve is because last year when we did not sign a large contract, the supply of the national reserve to the country was
A guarantee is a guarantee for the supply of spring ploughing. At present, after the signing of the large contract, on February 18th, the national reserve
It is reopened, and in the later stage, the amount of national reserves may increase. Last year the national reserve was from 10
Starting at the end of the month, it lasts until December, and 2 rounds are carried out. This year has been suspended since January of '22, Vi
Holding a relatively high level of national reserves.
The price of the national reserve auction is 3,000 yuan, and the monthly regulations are different, just like in December, it is a single purchase
The number of parties bidding is a 20,000 tons. Then the upper limit of the number of a single day is 5000 tons. Single buyer in October
The maximum number of quantities is 10,000 tons, and the number of auctions in a single day is 3,000 tons. The cost of the national reserve to the downstream as well as the supply
The pressure should be alleviated to a certain extent, but the overall number is relatively limited.
After the signing of the large contract, it is expected that the amount of the national reserve may increase. It will ensure the fertilizer demand in the domestic market
Yes, the resulting price increase may have some relief.
The national reserve is basically not in the peak season, maintaining a volume of about 1.8 million tons, in the peak season like spring ploughing or winter winter
When the quilt is fattened, it will be released. Because now is one of the peak periods of spring fertilization, it is now
There should be more volume. By the end of spring ploughing, the summer will be replenished, and this amount will be maintained at a certain level
Level, to ensure that the next peak season has a certain inventory support
If there is no obvious policy on the national side, it is expected that the price will remain basically the same before the arrival of the large contract
high.
How much do you think a country can fall back to if it has a policy?
Q: Overseas production methods are different from domestic ones, and the production costs on overseas are not comparable to those in China
What is the approximate level of cost of the new installation? Compared to the existing devices in the country, whether they have
What about competitiveness? A: The domestic side is still at a rate of about 50%, and their production methods abroad are relative to those in China
Instinct is slightly lower, now the domestic Qinghai side is to collect potassium salt and foreign cost is slightly higher,
There are also enterprises in China that are going overseas to build some potash production capacity.
Qinghai has not significantly added new production capacity in recent years. Cost is one thing, and then it is because potassium resources are domestic
Relatively limited. The state hopes to build factories like enterprises abroad, because the domestic potassium resources are also comparative
Less, to ensure the maintenance of China's potassium resources.
In terms of costs, the cost of the Lao side is basically at a comparable level as in the country. Foreign resources relative to domestic
It is more, which can ensure the supply of the later stage.
Q: What do you think of the demand for potash fertilizers? What is about the growth rate in 21 years?
A: Now the international side of its price is already very high level, may have a certain downstream demand
inhibition. Under normal circumstances, international global consumption may be reduced this year, but now it is out
The mouth is not very certain, so the price of it may not be clear because the consumption can be reduced
Apparent pullback.
Q: What is the current situation of this price in some overseas areas?
A: The price base of the Southeast Asian market in the importing country is about 600 US dollars / ton, and Brazil's has reached 700 ~ 800 US dollars /
Tons of China we are still at a relatively low, although the price is already very high.
Q: The price of the big contract is relatively high, and in the later stage, the whole of China may say the international price
When there is a correction, China may import some slightly lower ones through border trade or through other companies
Supply, to obtain the supplement, reduce the purchase of large contracts with potassium, after all, now only with the addition of one
A large contract is signed, and other countries will also do to lock such a price.
A: If it is imported through a large contract, it is basically maintained in other countries at this level.
Border trade may be reduced, it is signed on a monthly basis, and if the market price is reduced in the later period, it should be
It will also be relatively low a level, and the international market is to maintain a relatively flat level.
Basically, China's negotiating team negotiates with foreign countries first, and after determining a price, other countries will also maintain it
Hold the price to sign.
Q: Substitution of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers for potassium fertilizers
A: The price of potash fertilizer is relatively high, and the price of potassium fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer is relatively low in the future
Compound fertilizer can be adjusted by the ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, and then reduce the amount of potassium fertilizer used at the end. nitrogen
Fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer are basic fertilizers, if the price of potassium fertilizer is too high in the later stage, the downstream compound fertilizer may be based
Use less. Because the compound fertilizer must use potassium, the amplitude will not be significantly reduced, and the amplitude may be large
It is about 5% to 10%.