Yang Delong: Pay less attention to short-term dynamic information and pay more attention to static information that determines the investment value of enterprises

On Thursday, February 17, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets continued their shock trend. With the gradual reduction of the impact of internal and external bearish factors, the confidence of the A-share market has rebounded, and the overall trend has also picked up to a certain extent this week. Today, the new energy sector has rebounded, sweeping away the haze of new energy adjustment in the past.

This week' new energy rebound is stronger. In the early stage of the new energy sector fell sharply, I suggest that we firmly seize the opportunity brought about by the decline of new energy leading stocks. Because in the long run, new energy to replace traditional energy is the trend of the times, short-term stock price fluctuations will not change the fact that the industry boom is relatively high. Short-term stock price fluctuations have brought a better time for funds to enter the market. The Qianhai Open Source Clean Energy Fund has focused on the layout of four major track leading stocks of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power and hydrogen energy, and seized the opportunity of carbon neutrality in the long run.

Recently, the consumer sector has also seen a certain stabilization rebound, but the intensity is not as large as that of new energy. It is estimated that it should still be because the current epidemic situation in some places is sporadic, the epidemic control measures are relatively strict, there is indeed a certain suppression of consumption, and the growth rate of consumption is still not high, so it may affect the short-term performance of consumer stocks. In the long run, the epidemic will always pass, and the epidemic control measures are expected to be gradually reduced or cancelled after the epidemic is controlled. Therefore, the long-term investment value of consumption still exists, especially the profitability is relatively strong, such as liquor, chinese medicine leaders that are not affected by collection, and leading enterprises in food and beverage. The brand value of these enterprises is relatively high. Even if the impact of the epidemic in the short term and the profit growth rate is low, the future development prospects are still good.

After the mainland's per capita GDP exceeded $10,000, expectations for consumption upgrading and total consumption expansion have become increasingly strong. Affected by the epidemic in the past two years, the growth rate of residents' income has slowed down, and everyone may have no consumer confidence and no spending power, but after the epidemic, consumption should be expected to get out of the bull and bear cycle. Therefore, when the market sentiment is pessimistic, it is instead that we have to lay out in advance. The Qianhai open source high-quality leading fund I manage is that when many high-quality leading stocks are wrongly killed, the layout includes consumer white horse stocks, new energy leading stocks, and technology Internet giants. These are all directions in which economic transformation will benefit in the long term. Short-term market pessimism is just an opportunity to invest in high-quality leading stocks.

In the near future, investors' attention to rare earths may be relatively high, and rare earths are a sector with more price increases this year. According to statistics, the price of rare earths has risen steadily since the Spring Festival, and China's rare earth price index has risen by 17%, hitting a record high. Rare earths are supported by industrial gold, and the total reserves of rare earth resources in the world reach 120 million tons, of which China's reserves have reached 44 million tons, accounting for 37.89%, ranking first in the world. We have a comparative advantage in the development of rare earths, so the cost of rare earth mining is low, and our rare earth production once reached more than 80% of the world. Rare earth is the material needed for the development of high technology, especially in the application of artificial intelligence, new energy and other aspects, the demand for rare earths is increasing day by day. Since the beginning of this year, the rare earth sector has experienced a poor valuation, and the adjustment range is relatively large, so it has now gradually fallen out of value. Considering that the prospects for the long-term development of rare earths are better, now is also a period that can be paid attention to.

Since the beginning of this year, the global capital market has been turbulent, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a certain relationship. As the Fed has resorted to unlimited quantitative easing in response to the impact of the pandemic over the past two years, it has cut benchmark interest rates to zero and then released liquidity to the market through bond purchases. This has led to a sharp rise in global asset prices, while inflation has resurfaced, and the price of crude oil has already exceeded $90 per barrel. While this is not only affected by the turmoil in Ukraine and other situations, it is important that the Fed releases water to create a bubble of rising asset prices. In addition to oil, the prices of commodities including natural gas, coal, iron ore, copper, aluminum and so on have risen sharply in the past year.

This year, in order to cope with the current relatively high inflation situation, the Fed should begin a gradual shift in monetary policy, from the previous excessive easing to tightening. According to a statement from a recent Fed interest rate meeting, bond purchases could end in March, after which interest rate hikes may be considered. Of course, there is no indication that there will be a rate hike in March, which has relieved investors in the United States. Interest rates may not be raised in March, and U.S. stocks have also rebounded to a certain extent. Since the beginning of this year, the overall trend of US stocks has been relatively strong. Although there has been a decline from the high, the extent of the decline is not large, and there has been a strong upward attack after the Spring Festival.

Now it seems that the Fed's monetary policy tightening is relatively certain, and the market has also expected it. Instead, after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, U.S. stocks saw a certain rebound. This time, participants argued that U.S. inflation was too high and the economy was close to full employment, and that there was a reason to make a rate hike as soon as possible. Most participants noted that if inflation did not fall as expected, it would be appropriate for the Commission to cancel easing faster than currently expected. Recently, inflation in the United States has been relatively high, and inflation has soared, spurring the outlook for Fed officials to raise interest rates. U.S. President Joe Biden's approval ratings have also slipped recently.

The rise in inflation has a relatively large impact on residents' consumption and also affects the living standards of residents, which may lead to the Fed taking measures to raise interest rates. Participants at the meeting continued to emphasize that flexibility should be maintained and that appropriate policy adjustments should be a guiding principle based on risk management considerations. At present, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a total of 1.75 percentage points this year, which is equivalent to 7 0.25 percentage point hikes, but will the market's expectations eventually come true? This may result in an expected difference.

Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine affecting the market has also eased to a certain extent, Russia seems to have signs of withdrawal, geopolitical tensions have a direct impact on the price of natural gas, and crude oil prices have also risen. These overseas factors will also have a certain impact on the short-term trend of the A-share market, but we don't have to pay too much attention. The trend of the A-share market and the overseas market has obvious independence, that is to say, the fluctuation affected by the peripheral market is not large. The A-share market is more affected by the domestic economic, policy and capital aspects.

We have always advocated the concept of value investment, we hope that we can filter out short-term information in the intricate information, that is, dynamic information, focus on the static information that determines the long-term investment value of enterprises, in order to cope with market fluctuations with unchanged changes, short-term fluctuations in the market are unpredictable and unavoidable. But as long as we grasp the opportunities of good industries and good companies from a medium- and long-term perspective, we can realize the preservation and appreciation of wealth by allocating high-quality stocks or high-quality funds. And doing contrarian investment is very important. When the high-quality leading stocks are wrongly killed, it is a good time to lay out the high-quality leading funds at a low price, and then exchange time for space, and be a friend of time to wait for the value to return.