February 16th is so calm, said yes Russia invaded Ukraine? As a result, Russia not only did not move, but also reported the "withdrawal" on the 15th.
So much so that the passage circulating on the Internet is: Due to the new crown epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been changed to "online".
Although Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not come as the United States said, the information war and public opinion war between the West and Russia have already climaxed. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on the 15th that with the end of a series of joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, some Russian troops will return to the station.
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg immediately said, which door is this withdrawal? So far, Russia's military presence on the east-Ukrainian border has not been downgraded. And the U.S. State Department No. 16 also insisted: "We never said it was no. 16." We have been saying for some time that we are in a window period in which Putin can order an invasion or attack on Ukraine at any time. It's still our assessment, it could happen tomorrow, it could be next week, and I think to be clear, our concerns have not diminished, in fact, our concerns have intensified. ”
Ukraine and Russia who heard the news were actually "dumbfounded." Putin has already said this week that he is willing to continue dialogue with NATO. Discuss how to build trust, restrictions on European intermediate-range missiles, transparency in military exercises, and more.
Mark Twain once said: History will not repeat itself, but it will always be strikingly similar. Wu Jingzi once wrote in the "History of Rulinwai": "Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi". Today' repeated conflicts between the United States and Russia are accurately confirming these two simple historical laws...
One of the most serious confrontations between the United States and Russia in the Cold War
Sixty years ago, on October 14, 1962, on a cloudless Sunday, two U.S. U2 planes flew over western Cuba and took a large number of photographs. The experts zoomed in and studied it carefully and found that the photograph included a launch pad and a large number of ballistic missile facilities. American experts are convinced that the launcher is equipped with a nuclear bomb.
In 1961, the United States led the Bay of Pigs incident in an attempt to overthrow the Castro regime, who knows that only 1 year later, Castro and Khrushchev reached a tacit agreement to let the Soviet Union transport missile experts and weapons to Cuba, the Soviet missile range is 2,000 kilometers, while Cuba is only 166 kilometers away from the shortest distance from florida in the United States.
This time, the Soviets unknowingly placed missiles in the backyards of the Americans, causing shock and anger in the United States. On October 23, 1962, Kennedy made a radio address demanding that the Soviet Union withdraw all offensive weapons under United Nations supervision. A total naval blockade of Cuba was imposed, the United States assembled the largest landing force since World War II to prepare for war, and U.S. military bases around the world were put on alert, when the United States and the Soviet Union were rattling swords, and the shadow of nuclear war hung over the Caribbean Sea.
Eventually, Khrushchev wrote a "peace letter" to Kennedy in which Khrushchev acknowledged the existence of Cuban missiles and expressed his deep desire for peace and demanded a commitment by the United States not to invade Cuba. Kennedy reiterated his demand that the Soviet Union, under the arrangements of the United Nations, halt continued construction on the Cuban offensive missile base and withdraw all offensive missile deployments.
On November 11, 1962, Khrushchev and Kennedy reached a private agreement in which all 42 Soviet missiles deployed in Cuba were withdrawn. The United States, on the other hand, secretly withdrew ballistic missiles deployed in Turkey and Italy.
In this round of confrontation, the secret withdrawal of us troops allowed the United States and NATO to save face and became the "victors of the crisis" from the purpose of propaganda, while the Soviet Union also achieved the purpose of letting the United States withdraw missiles from the territory of NATO allies.
After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union increased the production of nuclear warheads, which also made the Soviet Union gradually turn to the offensive in the pattern of the US-Soviet hegemony, and then the two superpowers came and went in the armament and world pattern, through local proxy wars, science and technology and arms races, space races and diplomatic cold confrontations, which have been going back and forth for 30 years...
NATO has expanded eastward three times
Later, the Soviet Union gradually fell behind in this confrontation, and 30 years after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the official end of the Cold War, and the Western capitalist camp led by the United States and NATO became the victors of the Cold War: the United States saw a good opportunity to expand the achievements of the Cold War victory and establish a unipolar world.
Internally, the United States can influence new members through the economy and continue to consolidate its position as the boss in the alliance. Externally, it further weakens Russia's influence, curbs Russia's rise, and avoids posing another threat to the West.
NATO's first massive expansion took place in 1999, including the former Soviet bloc of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland joining NATO. Moscow was very unhappy about this, but there was nothing it could do. When NATO bombed Bosnian Serbs in 1995, then-Russian Prime Minister Boris Yeltsin could only helplessly say: "The scene at this time is likely to be what NATO looked like when it expanded to the borders of the Russian Federation, and a war could break out throughout Europe." ”
But Russia was too weak to stop NATO from moving east, but the new member states did not border Russia at the time.
In 2004, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia and the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) formally joined NATO, which meant that Russia's traditional sphere of influence was included in NATO.
When NATO supported the accession of Georgia and Ukraine, it touched Russia's bottom line, and then Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Glushenko said: "Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO is a huge strategic mistake and will also have serious consequences for the security of the European region." Putin's stance is equally firm, arguing that the two countries joining NATO will pose a "direct threat" to Russia. According to Russian media reports, Putin once hinted in a conversation with George W. Bush: "If Ukraine is accepted as a NATO member, it will cease to exist." ”
When Georgian President Saakashvili committed to getting the country to join NATO, Russia, which was gradually recovering at this time, launched a war against Georgia in 2008, and on the dispute over South Ossetia, Putin immediately sent troops to bomb Georgia indiscriminately, controlling Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia could not wait for the support of the United States and NATO, and could only retreat. Russia used this incident to once again warn NATO that Ukraine and Georgia are Moscow's red lines. But this still did not prevent NATO's eastward expansion, and in 2009 Albania and Croatia joined NATO.
The third was ukraine's Western-backed color revolution in 2014, when demonstrations eventually turned into police-civilian clashes and chaos in the capital, Kiev. Putin once again showed a tough side, taking the opportunity to send troops to recover the Crimean military port, so that this deep-water port and Russia's important southern strategic points can return to Russia again.
Will Russia annex Ukraine?
The answer is no, even if Russia has strong military power and economic power returns to the forefront of the world, it will still not be able to completely occupy Ukraine. This only needs to refer to the lessons of the Soviet Union and the United States in Afghanistan, the past 50 years, the United States in Vietnam and Iraq have paid a lot of price, and a small Chechnya has also made Russia suffer.
Recent history reminds every politician that military occupations often end badly. Putin certainly understands that trying to conquer Ukraine by force will only bring disaster. So his reaction to Ukraine has been cautious.
The United States and NATO do not like Moscow's position, but this is also the first lesson of geopolitics :all great powers are extremely sensitive to threats near their territories. After all, 60 years ago, the United States also thundered against the Soviet Missiles in Cuba.
Today's United States will not tolerate other countries deploying troops anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, let alone how angry it would be if another great power formed a military alliance with Mexico and Canada. This is also Russia's red line: NATO's expansion into Georgia and Ukraine will never be accepted by Russia.
Stuck in the middle of Ukraine, there is now only one way to go, and that is to neither turn to NATO, causing Russia to be angry. Nor can it be completely pro-Russian, lose the vote of the Ukrainian people, and continue to maintain the Minsk Agreement signed in 2015. But how difficult it is for Ukraine, which is already crumbling. Comedian Zelenskiy's "drama misleading the country" tried in April to amend the Minsk Agreement to strengthen the role of the United States in solving the problems in the Donbass region, which led to a series of chain reactions that could not end.
This Russian-Ukrainian conflict seems to have begun with a temporary détente with the withdrawal of Russian troops. But the crisis is far from over. On the 14th, a majority vote in the Parliament of the Russian Duma passed a bill calling on the government to formally recognize the independence of the two separate regions of Udong-Luhansk and Donetsk. The relevant documents will be submitted to the President immediately. A Kremlin spokesman said that the State Duma resolution reflects the will of the Russian people, but the government has not yet made a decision. Once Putin recognizes the independence of the donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of the Donbass region, the Minsk agreement will completely break down, and a bigger crisis is yet to come...