Recently, there is a god prophecy about China's real estate that has exploded all over the Internet.
The original post was in September 2016, someone predicted the country's policy layout for real estate at the Tianya Forum, and the title of the post was: "13 Necessary Roads for China's Property Market".
The specific thirteen steps are as follows:
1. Open the gate and release water. (Achieved, continue to reduce the RRR, advocate a 30% national down payment, M2 expansion faster than GDP)
2, house prices soared. (Has been realized, has been the property market)
3. Selling land to solve the local government debt crisis. (Realized, Land Finance)
4. Drive RMB deposits into the housing market. (Realized, the money has become a down payment for the house, the income is used to repay the mortgage, and the real economy gets the money to speculate in the house)
5. SAFE's biggest "opponent" disappears, and foreign exchange is temporarily safe. (It has been realized that in 2017, major housing enterprises stopped overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions, and foreign exchange was saved)
6. Follow the US imperialists to tighten the currency. (Realized, the property market continues to raise interest rates in a targeted manner)
7. Banks transfer most of the risk through CDS (Credit Default Swap). (Realized, landed in 2016)
8, the purchase of manufacturing ceiling, house prices began to fall. (Partially realized, the combination of fists has come out, the northern property market and the southern second-tier outside the property market began to weaken, fast or slow)
9. The high-level receiver or investor cannot cash out, and the RMB funds are successfully locked. (Partially realized, now the liquidity of real estate is particularly poor, and various policies restricting second-hand housing transactions have been introduced)
10. Land financial transformation. (Ongoing, 17 years of lease and sale of equal rights, leased land, condominium property rights, land revenue began to be transferred to tax)
11. Introduce real estate tax and completely kill harmless retail investors. (ongoing)
12. Drive the remaining funds back into the industry and keep jobs. (ongoing)
13. Internationalization of the renminbi. (Ongoing, more and more countries have begun to abandon the US dollar and use the renminbi)
The first 6 articles have nothing to say, when the prophecy is released, it has basically been realized, which is equivalent to writing some fait accomplis into it.
What is really surprising is that the CDS came less than a week after the prediction came out; the prediction was less than two weeks after the national purchase restriction came; less than a month after the prediction, the national first home interest rate began to rise.
Step 7, Step 8, and Step 9 have either been realized or are in the process of steady progress, and most of them have made great achievements.
Steps 10-13 are also the steps we are taking, but due to the relatively large resistance, the current progress is also relatively slow, but it cannot be denied that these things are being done above.
