Text/Phoenix News Client Honor Lead Writer Tang BargeHu
Core Executive Summary:
1. On February 15, Russia announced the withdrawal of its troops from the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Russia-Ukraine standoff, which lasted for months, was a threat to Russia's "annual routine" surge and a farce fabricated by the United States. The truth of the situation is that since 2015, Russia has accused Ukraine of not abiding by the Minsk agreement, while Ukraine believes that it is a recovery of the country, and the United States and Europe have cooperated in the double reed.
2. Review the gains and losses of both sides, and the United States has successfully activated NATO's control over European countries through this crisis. Judging from public opinion, Biden won a victory of self-talk and got by on his face. So, what about Russia and Putin?
3. The struggle between the two sides is still continuing, and the next round of fierce fighting has begun. At the same time that Russia announced the "withdrawal of its troops", the Russian State Duma adopted a draft resolution recognizing the independence of the two "republics". If this move finally comes true, Russia will withdraw from the Minsk agreement in fact and law, and it will be further sanctioned by the United States and Europe.
4. For Russia, the real challenge is yet to come. The confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine will lead to "undiminished", "long-term" and "peninsular", and a new Cold War will come. Russia will contain the resources and power of the West in Europe and attract firepower in the global strategic game.
Over the weekend, numerous Western media reported that the CIA and military intelligence had informed Germany and other NATO countries on February 11 that, based on the latest "accurate and reliable intelligence," Russia could launch an offensive against Ukraine as early as Wednesday, February 16.
For a time, public opinion was in an uproar.
On Tuesday 15, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov announced through the Internet that Russian troops deployed near the Belarusian-Russian-Ukrainian border for weeks had begun to withdraw.
Konashenkov said: "The troops of the Southern and Western Military Districts, which have completed their tasks, have begun to withdraw, return to the camp by rail and road, and will begin to return to their cantonments today." ”
In fact, there is no Ukraine crisis at all.
The last article 20 days ago, in late January, clearly pointed out, what is the situation in Ukraine? It's just a big drama between the two sides...
What is the truth of the situation?
Indeed, not only in the eyes of ordinary people, but also in the eyes of the general public, russia and Ukraine will inexplicably make trouble.
Even some of the "national political experts" did not understand the posture, tactics, and strategies of the two sides. Others say that "predictions" are that "war in Ukraine is almost inevitable."
Just because watching the Western media report that Russia has gathered 120,000 troops on the border, you think it is going to move?
So, nearly a year ago, from March to May 2021, shortly after Biden came to power, Russia also gathered 120,000 troops on the border and made a fuss. I wonder how many people have heard of it?
In addition, in the seven years from 2015 to the present, Russia has assembled 80,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border several times. As for the gathering of 50,000 troops, that is all "routine exercises".
If there is no higher level of hype, ordinary people will definitely not even hear of it.
Therefore, in addition to Russia's "annual routine" threat of troop increase, it can be said that by February, this is a performance of continuous drama in the United States, a farce that is purely fabricated.
So, what is the truth of the situation?
The truth is that since 2015, Russia has been accusing Ukraine of not abiding by the ceasefire's Minsk agreement and has been encroaching on the "territory" of the two ethnic Russian "independent republics" in the form of piecemeal and knocking on the candy.
In Ukraine's view, it is very legitimate for me to seek revenge and counterinsurgency and recover the national territory.
In Russia's view, this is an infringement on the interests of ethnic Russians and a threat to the safety of the lives of ethnic Russians, which cannot be tolerated.
But aside from the threat of additional troops on the border, Russia can't come up with many good solutions. After all, the army really pushed past, and the more severe blockade sanctions of the United States and Europe immediately followed.
Within Russia, the accumulated resentment, the complaints about the weakness of the authorities against Ukraine, have been loud.
Even the opposition, Navalny, has played the national card, accusing Putin of not being "nationalistic" enough to effectively protect "ethnic Russian interests."
People who can only watch the drama from a distance from the outside naturally do not know that Russia's domestic and foreign affairs in the past 7 years have been greatly affected and contained by the situation in Donbass.
After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, Russia felt a bit like the post-1975 U.S. defeat from Vietnam and Cambodia, and then decided to send another large army to warn Ukraine not to act rashly.
However, this time it was different, the United States and Europe shouted together, cooperated with the acting, and played the double reed. Then he resolutely blocked Russia's demands.
Since last December, Russia has been saying that I have no plans to attack Ukraine.
The United States says – say you have, you have! Otherwise, what are you going to do when you mobilize your army?
The intention of deterrence is exposed to global attention, and it is amplified and distorted by hype, and this military deployment loses its meaning.
On February 7 (last Monday), French President Emmanuel Macron visited Russia, and after a lengthy five-hour talk, Putin agreed to withdraw troops deployed on the front lines "after the military exercises are over."
But the United States did not do it. It is necessary to use various methods to spread the news that Russia is about to attack Ukraine, create a tense atmosphere, and provoke an uproar in public opinion.
In the end, people who don't know how to do it are betting, when will the war start? Global stock markets were in turmoil.
And knowledgeable people are guessing, who will go down this embarrassing step first? How to end it decently?
Eventually, Russia retreated at a point in time set by the United States.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said, "February 15, 2022 will go down in history as the day when Western war propaganda failed, and Russia destroyed Western war propaganda without firing a single shot." ”
And Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, claimed that if Russia did not invade in the end, it was not that Putin did not want to, but that the United States was credited.
Therefore, the war of words still has to be "fought". Both sides can continue to declare victory. This is the truth of this round of crises.
Review the gains and losses of both sides
Both sides scolded each other on the street, and they had to put up some posture and make a show. It's almost time to finish work and go home.
The side that does not like Russia can say that "Russia was forced to withdraw" - but in fact, Russia did not want to fight.
Those who like Russia can say "Biden was punched in the face" – but that's how the United States has always faked news, and they can also say that it was our warnings and threats that forced Putin to abandon the idea of invasion.
Both sides can continue to declare a face-to-face victory. But analysts have to continue to scrutinize what is missing —
And it is not possible to revert to their respective situations from the perspective of the bystander alone.
From the U.S. perspective, through this crisis, the United States has successfully activated NATO's control over European countries. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron's so-called European plan for an autonomous army has been almost ignored.
Importantly, the situation in Ukraine has made Relations between Europe and Russia more tense. That is, it tied Europe to the ship of the Cold War between the United States and Russia.
For NATO, the United States has rediscovered the reason why it was born in 1949 and has always existed, that is, to "defend Europe against Moscow's aggression."
From Russia's point of view, the military pressure is to deter Ukraine, and the second is to ask the United States and NATO to "respect" Russia's "security concerns", the so-called "buffer zone". But NATO has strongly rebuffed.
In addition, the Putin government put forward some conditions that the West could not accept in the negotiations, such as asking Eastern European countries to withdraw from NATO, NATO to return to 1991, etc., which successfully stimulated panic in Eastern European countries.
By rendering the Russian threat, some previously half-hearted European countries supported the US policy toward Russia.
France and Germany, which want to establish an independent defense system, had to put away their own willfulness, once again obey the command of the United States, and with the threat of Russia, the United States once again established its dominant position over Europe, with great results.
In addition, both Putin and Biden need to please the people.
From Biden's perspective, if you show a tough stance at the lowest cost in a texture fight and win a self-talk victory. Then it is possible to stop the downward trend of the polls, at least on the face.
From Putin's point of view, the army once again suppressed the territory and failed to achieve any practical results, and eventually withdrew. In fact, some prestige has been lost to Russia's hardline nationalists.
So, Russia has not achieved much. Of course, the wrestling is not over.
The next round of more intense fighting has begun
The Russian draft resolution recognizing the independence of the two "republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk has been submitted to the Russian State Duma for discussion and voting.
There are two versions, one by the Russian Communist Party and one by Putin's United Russia Party.
At the same time that Russia announced its "withdrawal", 351 deputies to the Russian State Duma voted in favor, 16 opposed, and 1 abstained, and passed by a large number of votes.
After the duma is adopted, it will be formally submitted to Putin for approval. This means that the Russian Federation formally recognizes the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as their state status.
German Chancellor Schoelz said it would be a "political disaster" if Russia's move came true.
Because Russia recognizes Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia will withdraw from the Minsk agreement in practice and law, and will inevitably be subject to further sanctions from the United States and Europe.
In addition, the Russian armed forces of the Donbass only control 30% of the territory of the Donetsk Oblast and the Luhansk Oblast under the administrative divisions of Ukraine, and the remaining 70% are planned to be captured or abandoned?
This is the next round of more intense fighting. But in essence, the outcome of the wrestling game ultimately depends on the strength comparison between the two sides.
Every action of Putin is only a counterattack in defense, and it has not changed the general trend of Russia's relative decline and stagnation. For Russia, the real challenge is yet to come.
Ukraine standoff to "peninsular"
In this round of fighting, the United States used almost zero cost saliva to set up Russia and spray. In fact, it is a game of propaganda warfare and public opinion warfare.
After all, the ability to control high-intensity public opinion and the ability to set issues is really something that can be done.
After Russia announced a partial withdrawal, European stocks turned higher, with the European Stoxx 50 up 1.05%, the French CAC40 up 1.24%, and the German DAX up nearly 1%.
The Russian ruble extended gains to 1.2 percent against the dollar, and the Russian stock index Moex extended gains to 2.7 percent.
U.S. Stock Dow futures rose nearly 0.4 percent. S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.6 percent, and NASDAQ futures rose more than 1 percent.
European natural gas futures fell more than 6 percent; U.S. and Burundian oil futures fell more than 2 percent at one point. Spot gold moved down nearly $7 on the short term.
It should be pointed out that these small rises and downs have not reached the level of conspiracy and speculation in the "big financial chess game" advocated by some people.
Because, a hidden and well-known fact, that is, the Confrontation with Ukraine will be "unresolved", "long-term", and "(Korean) Peninsular", that is, a full restoration of the Cold War confrontation of that year.
The "Cold War" of the 20th century was an all-out confrontation between the Soviet Union and the West in all fields such as ideology, social system, geopolitics, military power, economy and science and technology.
The final outcome of the 45-year Cold War was the defeat and disintegration of the Soviet Union, the total defection of the Eastern Bloc, and the defeat of Russia.
The ultimate determinant of the win or loss of the Cold War was the competition in their respective institutional structures, the all-round competition between economic strength and social vitality.
The competition is not only aircraft cannons and nuclear missiles, but also strong economic production capacity, scientific and technological innovation ability, prosperous lifestyle, ally appeal, and ultimately compete for the people's hearts and minds, value orientation.
However, it should also be recognized that the change of the Soviet Union and the victory of the West in the Cold War are only a node in the historical relations between the West and Russia, and only a stage victory won by the West.
The countries of Eastern and Central Europe were no longer under Moscow's control; the 15 republics of the Soviet Union went their separate ways. Instead of ending the history of the West's struggle with Russia, this has opened a new round of fighting.
Because in the eyes of Europeans, Russia is a dangerous bear that must be completely tamed with shackles.
Similarly, Moscow did not really accept the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a little recovery would try to restore the control of the old Russian era, and fight with the West in various secret wars and competitions.
Russia seeks to control satellite states including Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia, and Transcaucasia, as it did in the soviet era, restore pre-1991 Soviet borders, and revive GreatEr Russia.
Putin's increasing legitimacy has been based on a return to great power dreams and nationalism, reinforcing Russia's confrontational character.
For hundreds of years, Russia was part of Europe and not a true Western. The two fiercely conspired and competed with each other, and this is still the case to this day.
This is a new Cold War, and the strategic stakes have hardly changed. Now, both sides have begun to openly outline the curves of the Cold War and are unabashedly preparing programmes.
So, just fight, just fight!
In any case, Russia will contain considerable power and resources in Europe and attract firepower in the global strategic game, which is conducive to our period of strategic opportunity and to the international room for maneuver.