Wen 丨 Zheng Xuan
Source 丨Investment in China Net East Forty Articles Capital
After the hours on October 25, Aier Ophthalmology, known as "Eye Mao", released the third quarter report of 2021, but the result was another surprise to shareholders - the third quarter revenue fell by 3.48% year-on-year, the net profit increased by 2.05% year-on-year, and the deduction of non-net profit fell by 5.38% year-on-year.
To make matters worse, the data of the top ten circulating shareholders disclosed at the same time show that Hillhouse, the fifth largest shareholder who has held the shares for two and a half years, was almost liquidated in the third quarter, in addition to the public offering brother Zhang Kun also significantly reduced his position, and his fund withdrew from the ranks of the top ten shareholders.
However, the China-Europe Medical and HealthCare Hybrid Securities Investment Fund managed by the "goddess of medicine" Gülen increased its holdings to 109 million shares in the third quarter.
Surprisingly, after the opening of A shares on the 26th, Aier Ophthalmology did not fall, but rebounded rapidly.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="13" > the third quarter performance declined, and Zhang Kun and Zhang Lei ran together</h1>
According to the announcement of Aier Ophthalmology, its operating income in the first three quarters was 11.596 billion yuan, an increase of 35.38% year-on-year; net profit was 2.003 billion yuan, an increase of 29.59% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.175 billion yuan, an increase of 37.58%.
On the surface, the three quarterly reports handed over by Aier Ophthalmology are not bad, but if you only look at the single quarter of the third quarter, the operating income of Aier Ophthalmology is 4.248 billion yuan, down 3.48% year-on-year, and the net profit is 888 million yuan, an increase of only 2.05%, while the deduction of non-net profit is down 5.38%.
For the performance is not ideal, Aier Chairman Chen Bang explained at the performance exchange meeting that there are two main reasons:
First, the base of the same period last year was high. In the third quarter of last year, the domestic epidemic eased, and the performance of Aier Ophthalmology achieved explosive growth, so the base of the comparison in the third quarter of this year was higher.
Second, the epidemic has recurred. In the first half of 2021, the domestic epidemic situation was relatively normal, starting from the epidemic in Nanjing in July, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Changsha and other outbreaks, and July and August were the peak season of Aier, when many stores could not be opened. In addition, Aier originally had a large-scale event with myopia in the planned degree recently, and it was also decided to postpone it on the 25th.
In fact, for most investors, the performance of Aier Ophthalmology in the third quarter of this year is difficult to achieve the results of the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology achieved operating income of 4.4 billion yuan, up 47% from 2019, and deducted non-net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, up 85% from 2019.
However, even if adversely affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic this year, Aier Ophthalmology, which achieved nearly 50% and 85% growth in revenue and non-net profit in the same period last year, only recorded negative growth in the third quarter of this year, which still exceeded investors' expectations. In the past few years, Aier Ophthalmology has achieved a net increase of 20% in revenue and 30% in net profit, including 2020, which was affected by the epidemic, and has not been able to stop the growth pace of Aier Ophthalmology.
After the release of the eye-catching financial report in the third quarter of last year, the stock price of Aier Ophthalmology continued to rise, rising to more than 90 yuan in February this year, but then a series of scandals broke out, including the promotion of non-essential surgery that caused the anti-epidemic doctor Ai Fen to almost blind his right eye, and the former employee reported that the company's leaders required the employees' family members to do eye surgery to meet the performance, resulting in vision loss.
Affected by the scandal, Aier Ophthalmology's stock price began to dive from the high point in March, and in 2020, as of the last trading day before the release of the third quarterly report, Aier Ophthalmology's stock price closed at 47.32 yuan, but according to the earnings per share in the past 12 months, Aier Ophthalmology's price-earnings ratio was still as high as 95.76 times, far higher than the average of the medical industry (66.78 times).
What worries investors more than short-term performance fluctuations is that Hillhouse and E Fangda Zhang Kun, which have the role of investment vanes, have quietly withdrawn.
According to Aier Ophthalmology's 2020 interim report, as of June 30, 2021, Hillhouse Capital Management Co., Ltd. - HCM China Fund, a subsidiary of Hillhouse, held 82 million shares of Aier Ophthalmology, the fifth largest circulating shareholder of Aier Ophthalmology, with a total position value of about 4 billion yuan; the blue-chip select hybrid securities investment fund managed by 100 billion public fund manager E Fangda Zhang Kun held 35 million shares, the ninth largest circulating shareholder.
In the three quarterly reports just released, as of September 30, 2021, Hillhouse and E Fangda Blue Chip Select both fell out of the ranks of the top ten shareholders, even if the minimum reduction to 20 million shares, Hillhouse and E Fangda Blue Chip Select reduced their holdings by at least 75% and 40%.
The only good news is that the CeIBS Medical and Health Hybrid Securities Investment Fund managed by Gülen, the "Goddess of Medicine", increased its shareholding in the third quarter of this year, from 73.6 million shares at the beginning of the period to 109 million shares, becoming the third largest shareholder of Aier Ophthalmology. In addition, the two public funds of the newly promoted top ten shareholders, GF Healthcare and ICBC Credit Suisse Frontier Medical, added 4.36 million shares and 5.08 million shares respectively in the third quarter.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="64" > next Tongzhi Medical? </h1>
Many shareholders are worried that Aier Ophthalmology will become the next tongzhi medical treatment.
On October 14, Tongce Medical, which has the title of "Tooth Mao", suddenly plunged into the disk. On the same night, Tongce Medical released its third-quarter performance announcement, with a single-quarter revenue of 819 million yuan, an increase of 12.44% year-on-year; a net profit of 270 million yuan, an increase of 5.88% year-on-year, far below market expectations.
After the release of the financial report, on October 15, Tongce Medical continued to drop the limit, coupled with the decline of 4.71% on October 18, down nearly 25% in just three trading days, and the market value shrank by 25 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that Tongce Medical was also one of Zhang Kun's heavy stocks before. However, the third quarterly report shows that the E Fangda small and medium-cap fund managed by Zhang Kun withdrew from the list of the top ten circulating shareholders. Gülen's fund continued to bless in the third quarter.
The same hot medical stocks in the past few years, also in the 2020 epidemic performance against the trend of growth and doubled the stock price, it seems that the situation of Aier Ophthalmology is worse than tongce medical.
Although the revenue growth rate and profit growth rate of Tongce Medical are only half of the average level in the past few years, it has achieved positive growth; and Aier Ophthalmology not only has negative growth in revenue and non-net profit, but also "ran away" in addition to Zhang Kun, this time also added to the Hillhouse of Tongce Medical for more than two years.
In fact, with the drastic changes in stock prices in the past few months, the shareholder composition of Aier Ophthalmology has also undergone a major adjustment, showing a trend of the main force fleeing and retail investors following up in a big way.
According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, the total number of shares held by the top ten shareholders in circulation decreased by 57 million shares, and the total number of shares held by the top 5 institutional shareholders among the top ten shareholders fell by about 25% in addition to management and the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company. At the same time, the number of shareholders of Aier Ophthalmology increased from 195,500 at the end of June to 270,800, a net increase of 75,000 households in three months.
I have to say that the divergence of fund investors is obvious, Zhang Kun and Zhang Lei have voted with their feet to choose to clear their positions, and the goddess of medicine Glen resolutely copied the bottom. What is more interesting is that after the release of the third quarterly report, on the 26th, the intraday Aier Ophthalmology did not fall but rose, and rebounded rapidly.
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