According to the "Monthly Tracking of the Global LCD TV Panel Market" released by RUNTO, in 2021, a total of 255 million LCD TV panels were shipped worldwide, down 5% year-on-year; the total area was 170 million square meters, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year.
In half a year, the global shipment in the first half of the year was 129 million pieces, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and the second half of the year shipped 126 million pieces, down 10% year-on-year.
Semi-annual shipments and changes in the global LCD TV panel market in 2021
Source: LOTTO Technology (RUNTO), unit: million pieces
In 2020, BOE and CSOT have completed industry mergers and acquisitions. From January 2021, CEC (Nanjing) G8.5 and CEC (Chengdu) G8.6 shipments were merged into BOE, internal numbers "B18" and "B19"; SDC (Suzhou) G8.5 shipments were merged into CSOT, internal number "T10".
At this point, the large-size LCD panel industry has begun to appear oligopolistic pattern. In 2021, BOE and CSOT capacity will account for more than 40%. In the future, considering the continued construction of new production capacity, industry clearance and potential epitaxial mergers and acquisitions opportunities, the duopoly is expected to move towards a market share of 50% + and gradually grasp the pricing power of the 100 billion US dollar panel market.
Market structure: The global supply chain is centered on Chinese mainland
In 2021, the total shipments of land-based panel factories reached 158 million pieces, accounting for 62%, a new historical high, an increase of 7 percentage points over 2020. The share growth comes not only from acquisitions, but also from the expansion of the mainland's production capacity itself. If CEC is not considered, the other four panel factories in the mainland have achieved volume increase and share growth. The rise of mainland manufacturers has caused the share of the Taiwanese and Korean camps to shrink.
Taiwanese panel factories shipped 52 million pieces in 2021, accounting for 20%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with 2020. Taiwanese Double Tiger Innolux and AUO have both contracted in their market share.
Korean panel factories (including mainland factories) shipped 29 million pieces, accounting for 11%, 7 percentage points less than in 2020. The share reduction was the largest of the four regions. In 2022, due to the deterioration of TV panel operating profits, it is expected that Korean manufacturers will gradually withdraw from the large-size LCD business and focus on the pan-OLED business, as well as more cutting-edge QNED, Micro LED and other technologies.
After the Japanese panel factory withdrew from Panasonic, only the single seedling Sharp was left with the large-size LCD panel. In 2021, the global large-size panel market remained prosperous for most months, and Sharp increased the turnover rate, driving the Japanese share to 6%, an increase of 2 percentage points.
Regional structure and changes of the global LCD TV panel market in 2021
Source: LOTTO, in %
Manufacturer trend: five up, five down
In 2021, the pattern of global LCD TV panel industry manufacturers is significantly differentiated, and within the statistical range, ten panel factories will rise and fall by half.
The distribution of materials is divided into four camps: head, neck, waist and tail with 60 million, 30 million and 10 million as the three critical lines.
BOE became the leader of the LCD panel industry, ranking first in the industry with an unprecedented shipment of 61 million pieces, up more than 30% year-on-year, accounting for 24% of the overall industry, with a share increase of 6.5 percentage points, and the increase also ranked first in the industry.
CSOT, HKC, Innolux three panel factories are in the neck camp of more than 30 million units, looking up at the head and down to the waist and tail camp to form an upward resistance. Among them, CSOT has become the only competitor with a resolute and rhythmic production line and product planning that may pose a substantial challenge to BOE, and in 2021, it will increase significantly in large-size shipments such as 65 and 75 inches.
CSOT and HKC ranked second and third with shipments of about 42 million units and 36 million units respectively, with market share rising to 17% and 14%. Among them, HKC shipments increased significantly, up more than 25% year-on-year, and quickly ranked among the forefront of the industry in 2021 with the layout of four high-generation line panel factories.
In addition to the four rising panel factories in mainland BOE, CSOT, HKC and CHOT, another rising panel factory in the world is Japanese Sharp, up 55% year-on-year, which is the largest panel factory in 2021, with absolute shipments of 16.5 million pieces.
The largest year-on-year decline in shipments and market share was the mainland manufacturer CEC and Korean manufacturer SDC involved in the sale transaction, with shipments of about 4 million and 7 million pieces, respectively, falling in the tail camp below 10 million pieces, down 79% and 74% year-on-year. After the completion of the delivery of the two panel factories, the market share has been less than 3%.
If you do not consider the manufacturers of the acquired production lines, the top two in terms of year-on-year decline in shipments are Taiwanese manufacturers Innolux and AU, down 19% and 13% respectively. Among them, Innolux was surpassed by HKC, leaving a gap of more than 2 million units. The AU has withdrawn from the competition of leading manufacturers, and LGD, Sharp, and CHOT are in the waist camp of 10-30 million units, and the future production capacity tends to be stable or decaying.
2021 global LCD TV panel factory shipment ranking
Source: LOTTO Technology (RUNTO), unit: 1,000 pieces
Size structure: the overall size is moved up, and the 32-inch share is stable
32 inches is still the largest size, shipping 66 million pieces, gaining about 26% of the market share, basically the same as in 2020, but shipment changes and the market went in line, down 5% year-on-year. 32 inches can effectively play a role in volume at present, mainly concentrated in mainland manufacturers with rapidly expanding production capacity, accounting for about 70% of the share.
42/43 and 55 inches ranked second and third with 18% and 15% shares, respectively.
In the 55-inch competition, CSOT has the highest market share, with a total shipment of 13.6 million pieces, accounting for about 34%; HKC increased by 234% year-on-year, accounting for 12%. The merger of mainland panel factories accounted for more than 60%.
75+ oversized shipped about 3.4 million pieces, the highest year-on-year increase of 61%, the market accounted for more than 1% for the first time. The second-highest gainer was 75 inches, shipping 9.3 million pieces, up 39% year-on-year, and the market share rose 1 percentage point to 3.7%. 65 inches ranked third in the increase, shipping 27 million pieces, up 12% year-on-year, and the market accounted for more than 10%. Especially after entering the Over Supply state in the second half of 2021, manufacturers are more inclined to produce large-size panels to digest production capacity.
Among the 65-inch competition, Sharp had the highest growth rate of 172%; among mainland panel manufacturers, CSOT grew the fastest, up 70% year-on-year, with more than 8.3 million units shipped to the front line. In the 75-inch competition, CSOT grew by 115%. The 86-inch products mainly come from LGD and BOE.
Shipments under 32 inches quickly shrank to 3.4 million units, the largest decline, reaching 76%. In this size segment, Innolux's share is as high as 45%, and it is still rising in 2021.
Taking 55 inches as the dividing line, the market share below 55 inches (excluding 55 inches) decreased by 4.5 percentage points. The ratio of shipments to shipments above 55 inches (including 55 inches) is 65:35.
In 2021, the global LCD TV panel factory shipped the size structure
Source: LOTTO, unit: 1,000 pieces, %
Outlook: Competition/Technology/Production Line/Product/Price/Operation
After getting rid of the illusion of "big fish in the water", the competition of panel manufacturers will tend to be fierce. The market share released by the Korean system will cause competition among the remaining players present, and further horizontal and vertical mergers and acquisitions are not ruled out. The pattern will continue to diverge.
Chinese mainland has invested more than 1 trillion yuan in LCD production lines and will return in 2021. The rich harvest of the LCD TV panel business has made the originally stagnant LCD production line investment and construction begin to warm up again, and re-examine the operational efficiency of LCD and OLED.
More 8.5/8.6 line capacity is starting to radically shift to IT products. It is expected that the IT panel market will move from years of stability to sharp fluctuations and full competition. The 8.5/8.6 generation line will implement the MMG process on a larger scale in 2022, thereby improving the cutting efficiency of the oversized panel 80+ inches. The output of LCD TV panels on the 7/7.5 and 8.5/8.6 generation lines will be reduced in 2022, and more will be transferred to the 10/10.5 generation line.
In 2022, due to the endorsement of QD OLED technology by the two leading brands of Sony and Samsung, the market shipments of pan-OLED panels (WOLED+QD OLED) will likely touch the scale of tens of millions of pieces for the first time, and squeeze the LCD panel under the condition of weak demand for the overall market size.
According to the "February LCD TV Panel Price Forecast and Volatility Tracking", the price of TV panels has continued to decline since August, and has reached the previous low, and some size panels have been below the breakeven line. The industry's TV business as a whole was already losing money in November. RUNTO judged that the panel price was likely to reach a critical point at the beginning of the second quarter. However, the TV market is still in the traditional off-season, and terminal demand has not been effectively restored. The main panel factory has begun to be fully loaded with crop rates. Therefore, there are still fluctuation variables in the future panel prices, and we should not be too optimistic. Panel agents need to be cautious about the bottoming action on small and medium-sized sizes.
Unlike the high run of panel prices in 2021, the average price in 2022 will run significantly lower. It is expected that the operating profit of the panel factory will face great challenges.