Real estate is probably in the best public opinion environment in history.
In January, 66 policies were introduced to stabilize the property market
The scene of shouting and killing real estate in the first half of last year has disappeared completely.
Since the fourth quarter, whether it is high-level, ministries and local governments, they have cared for real estate and asked for warmth. It not only reaffirms the status of the pillar industry of real estate, but also mentions many times that "it is necessary to fully release the housing needs of residents".
Even the National Development and Reform Commission jumped out and shouted, so that everyone could hurry up and buy a house during the Spring Festival.
As for the local government, it is sparing no effort to change the method to stimulate everyone to buy a house.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in January 2022, real estate-related policies were introduced more than 66 times in various parts of China, most of which were mainly based on stable property market policies such as loose provident fund policies and subsidies for talents renting and buying houses.
▲Image source: The Paper
For example, Nanning has increased the amount of provident fund loans from 600,000 to 700,000; for example, Beihai has lowered the down payment of provident fund loans for the second suite from 60% to 40%.
The intensity of the policy is similar to that of the real estate crackdown last July, when the regulation of real estate was also 66 times.
Just send a legal affair to the real estate, eager to summon the property market Xiaoyang Chun.
▲Image source network
The market is still bottomless
Many people believe that the current real estate downturn is caused by the state's rectification of real estate chaos and curbing the rapid rise in house prices.
Judging from the real estate cycle in the past few years, state regulation and control do have a deep impact on real estate.
As soon as the policy is tightened, the house price will brush back down; once the policy is relaxed, the house price will rise again. "One release will rise, one rise will manage, one tube will die, one die will be released, and one release will rise again" has formed a unique regulation cycle of China's real estate.
In the past six months, due to frequent regulation, most people have reached a consensus based on experience on the issue that real estate has entered a downward cycle. Generally, the expectation of real estate is not high, and it is easy not to dare to buy a house, for fear of being accidentally taken to the heavens, and then crying can not cry.
And now, from the top to the local government, the warm wind of policy is almost blowing people to the face of paralysis.
Theoretically, a slap in the face and another piece of sugar basically offset the offset, which means that nothing has happened.
So now everything is ready, just waiting for the real estate to warm up.
However, judging from the transaction data in January, the transaction still fell into a dog.
According to CRIC statistics, the transaction volume of commercial housing in 29 key cities in January fell by nearly 40% month-on-month and nearly 50% year-on-year.
▲Image source: CRIC
In addition to Shanghai and Chengdu, which are relatively strong, other first- and second-tier cities, trillion clubs, net inflows of population, and cities with tens of millions of people have all fallen into dogs.
The urban differentiation that is said to be good is actually not obvious.
Judging from the top 100 sales list, no matter which caliber it looks at, the sales scale in January has dropped by about 40%.
If only one can't sell, it can also be blamed on the problem of marketing ability. But the current situation is that most housing enterprises, regardless of size, state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, stable or high turnover, sales data have plummeted.
What's more tragic is that those insurance housing companies, although the threshold of the top 100 has been lowered, they have all disappeared on the top 100 list... Including Evergrande, Huaxia Happiness, Blu-ray, Taihe, Kaisa, Fantasia, Contemporary Real Estate, etc.
Some media are also pessimistic voices, in 2022, real estate will enter an era of negative growth.
This makes people very confused, the policy environment has been, the public opinion environment has also been, why is the property market still not picking up?
How did the two cold winters in history come out?
Looking back at the magnificent 40-year development history of China's real estate, most of the time, real estate has been soaring all the way, and the real crisis encountered has only been twice.
Once in 2008, affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis that swept the world, foreign trade was violently impacted, a large number of enterprises collapsed, real estate fell to the bottom, and transactions were cut.
Once is 14 years, affected by the increase in regulatory policies such as purchase restrictions and increased down payments, real estate is high and low, various indicators are falling back, housing prices in major cities across the country have fallen collectively, and inventory is high.
How did these two crises end up?
In 2008, the state issued the famous four trillion yuan plan, which directly stimulated the economy and drove the investment growth of the whole society, thus indirectly saving real estate.
At that time, there was so much money that everyone didn't know what to invest in, rather than investing in manufacturing with meager profits, it was better to invest in real estate that made steady profits. A large amount of hot money poured in, directly sending real estate from the ICU to the big health care.
In 14 years, the state included real estate destocking in the government's key work.
On the one hand, the purchase restriction measures in most cities have been basically cancelled, and the credit environment has continued to improve. On the other hand, many third- and fourth-tier cities have embarked on a vigorous monetization campaign to reform shantytowns, creating a large wave of purchasing demand for housing through demolition.
The reason why real estate in 2008 and 14 years can get out of the cold winter, the common point is: the state directly or indirectly to some people to send money, and drive this part into the property market to buy a house, thereby driving the property market transaction to pick up.
Whether it is the hot money produced by flood irrigation, or the demolition households that are targeted by shed reform.
First of all, this part of the people have money on their hands;
Secondly, this part of the people must have the need to buy a house, which may be investment or self-occupied;
Finally, this part of the population must have a certain number of scale, and the number of people is too small to support such a large plate of real estate.
One of the most critical is to have money on hand.
Who are the people who are still buying a house?
In general, the main groups of buying a house are generally divided into three types, just need, investment and improvement.
Needless to say, investment has been suppressed by several rounds of policies, and basically all of them have left the market. Several professional housing speculation groups such as Shenzhen Shenfangli and Hangzhou Olympic Sports Fangjie even went in to eat the national meal.
Especially now in the turbulent period of house prices, investment and investment, buying a house can not see the appreciation, then buy a house to do what?
Needless to say, I already have a house to live in, and it is not urgent to buy a house, so I will wait and see. Some want to replace and improve, because the second-hand housing market is almost frozen, can not sell the original house, basically stopped.
Therefore, those who are still buying a house are basically left with just having to buy a house in order to get married or have children study.
The need to buy a house now may also be the most tangled just need in history. It is afraid that the developer will not be able to pay the house, and it is afraid that the developer will reduce the allocation in order to save costs, and I am afraid that the front foot will drop by hundreds of thousands of dollars just after buying the developer.
Moreover, the just demand of this session may also be the weakest economic strength in history.
Because they just hit the background of the global epidemic and the slowdown in China's economic growth.
Say a few big data.
First of all, from the perspective of GDP, although the GDP growth rate in 2021 is unexpectedly as high as 8.1%. However, when split into each quarter, the economic growth slowdown trend is obvious, and the challenge of maintaining growth is very severe.
▲Image source: National Bureau of Statistics
Looking at the situation of the total retail sales of social consumer goods.
Although the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2021 reached 12.5%, the growth rate was also in decline when split into months. By December, the growth rate was only 1.7%.
To a certain extent, the total retail sales of social consumer goods can reflect people's purchasing power and consumption desire.
The growth rate has dropped to an almost negligible degree of 1.7%, indicating that the people have almost no desire to consume, not only for the house, but also for food, clothing, housing and transportation.
The most typical example is the film market in the Spring Festival file, where the cinemas that were abused by the epidemic originally wanted to take advantage of the Spring Festival holiday to earn a wave of blood and greatly increase ticket prices.
As a result, the people are also very real, you increase the price I will not go to see, so that this year's Spring Festival box office fell by 23% year-on-year. Stealing chicken does not succeed but erodes the rice, which is completely more than worth the loss.
▲Image source: International Finance News
Finally, let's look at the household savings rate.
China's people have always had the habit of saving money, and the resident savings rate once led the world, reaching a record high of 51.84% in 2008. But since 2009, China's household savings rate has begun a more than a decade-long downward journey.
The decline in the residents' savings rate illustrates two problems: ordinary people have no money in their pockets, and banks that rely on deposits to eat interest rate differentials may not have the money they imagined.
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the current people are not optimistic about the future economic situation, have no money in their hands, bank accounts are empty, and have basically no desire for consumption.
Specific to the social ecological chain in a disadvantageous position, the situation may be more difficult. Worry about unemployment, worry about supply cuts... Not to mention whether the pending property tax will be exempted from the first set, no one can say now.
Therefore, in the case that everyone generally has no money, the real estate market wants to repair itself, relying on the weak economic strength of just need to support the 18 trillion yuan market, which is almost impossible.
Is it possible for the property market to pick up?
Directly say the conclusion, there is!
First of all, from the perspective of economic structure, real estate still occupies an important position.
According to statistics, the contribution rate of real estate to GDP in recent years can reach more than 7%, and although it has declined in 2021, there is still a contribution rate of 6.78%.
Although the dividends of Chinese and urbanization are constantly fading, it is unrealistic for such an industry to be killed with a stick, and can only be gradually withdrawn and finally achieve a soft landing.
In China, characterization is a very important thing. If it is still like the first half of last year, the top management continues to shout, real estate is the biggest gray rhinoceros or something. Then everyone don't think about anything to warm up, or wash and sleep, everything in the dream.
But now the state continues to reiterate that real estate is still China's pillar industry, which is a very clear policy turn signal.
On behalf of the great gods of all walks of life, they will not continue to beat up the real estate on the ground according to their orders.
Second, from the policy level, the purpose of regulation and control has been basically realized.
What is the goal of the state's regulation of real estate, in essence, is to curb the rapid rise in housing prices and prevent the financial risks brought by real estate.
Has the state's regulatory goals been achieved? Judging from the industry situation last year to the present, I think it has basically been achieved.
House prices have fallen and fallen, and basically no one dares to expect to make a lot of money by speculating in houses.
Several high-turnover housing enterprises lined up to default on debt, but also let the housing enterprises began to seriously examine their own financial risks, have put cash flow safety in the first place, no one dares to use high leverage on the scale.
Then, the next thing is to correct the original part of the policy of excessive force.
For example, should the self-occupied needs of the foreign population in many cities be met, and the purchase restriction policy should be relaxed?
For example, many cities cut the guidance price of second-hand house prices, is it not raised according to market conditions?
At the extreme, it is not impossible to relax the requirements of the three red lines and extend the assessment period.
The original number of regulatory policies for real estate superposition represents how much space there is for correction and loosening in the future.
Finally, 2022 is a big year for infrastructure and a year of credit easing.
In response to the downward pressure on the economy, the state has restarted the large infrastructure plan.
According to the list of key projects that have been released so far, the "large infrastructure investment" released by eight provinces and cities such as Shandong, Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Sichuan alone exceeds 15.6 trillion yuan.
▲Image source: Sina Finance
In order to provide sufficient funds for large infrastructure, the state will certainly match the loose monetary policy. In fact, the central bank is already ahead of the curve.
The growth rate of social finance has maintained a continuous recovery for three consecutive months, with the social finance data in January exceeding expectations of 6.17 trillion yuan, new RMB loans approaching 4 trillion yuan, and the signs of a new round of credit easing cycle being reopened are very obvious.
Although the state has repeatedly stressed that funds cannot flow into real estate in violation of the law, real estate cannot be used as a short-term stimulus.
But in essence, the purpose of large infrastructure is to accelerate urbanization and enhance the value of the city. At the same time, a number of upstream and downstream enterprises have been driven to increase investment and expand production capacity, indirectly prompting some people who earn money from large infrastructure to have money to buy houses.
After all, no matter from the history or experience at home and abroad, real estate still has the function of preserving and increasing value.
In fact, the four trillion yuan in 2008 is only the name of the people, and its official name is called "Ten Measures to Further Expand Domestic Demand and Promote Economic Growth.".
Simply put, it is the ten major infrastructure projects around urban construction.
Write at the end
Ma Yun once said that today is cruel, tomorrow is more cruel, and the day after tomorrow is very beautiful, but the vast majority of people die tomorrow night.
The road is tortuous and the future is bright.
With the landing of large infrastructure and credit easing, the recovery of the property market is almost inevitable, but it is only a matter of sooner or later.
The question is how many people will live the day after tomorrow.