Can intensive diplomacy by European dignitaries alleviate the Ukraine crisis?

Recently, on the "set" of the Ukrainian crisis, in addition to seeing the "muscles" of the United States and Russia, the mediated figure of political leaders in European countries is even more eye-catching.

From Moscow to Kiev, from Washington to Berlin, Franco-German leaders and European foreign ministers made intensive shuttle visits. Can Europe's diplomatic offensive cool the Ukraine crisis? For some foreseeable time, this may be a major suspense that could affect the direction of the crisis. To borrow a phrase from French President Emmanuel Macron, it is that "the next few days will be decisive".

Seek strategic autonomy

Running on the same theme - defusing the crisis in Ukraine, the French president, the German chancellor, and foreign ministers such as Britain and Germany have come into battle, or "summit diplomacy" or foreign ministers' meetings, blowing up one diplomatic whirlwind after another.

From Monday to Tuesday, Macron "non-stop" two days to run three countries - Russia, Ukraine, Germany, before the trip did not forget to talk to US President Biden on the phone.

Scholz just visited Biden on the front foot, and after returning home on the back foot, he held a trilateral meeting with the visiting Macron and Polish President Duda. Next Monday and Tuesday, we will also visit Kiev and Moscow.

The foreign ministers are also on the move. On Monday and Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Berberk visited Ukraine twice in a month and personally inspected the eastern Ukrainian front. On Wednesday, Spanish Foreign Minister Alvarez appeared in Kiev to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Culreba. On Thursday, British Foreign Secretary Traus visited Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The crisis in Ukraine led to the British Foreign Secretary's first visit to Russia in more than four years.

Meanwhile, following the Paris talks late last month, foreign policy advisers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine gathered in Berlin on Thursday for another "Normandy model" quadripartite talks to discuss issues such as easing the crisis in Ukraine.

Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that Europe has multiple considerations for actively mediating the Ukraine crisis. The first is to resolve the urgent need in a tense situation and seek security and stability for Europe. Second, some countries have internal affairs needs. Macron, for example, needs to prepare for re-election. The third is to deliberately seek more initiative, or strategic autonomy, in important international agendas such as regional security, including exploring solutions to ensure European security, and even building a new European security architecture. France, as the eu's rotating presidency, has always had ambitions in promoting strategic autonomy and establishing a new European security architecture.

"The EU wants to ease tensions in Ukraine in its own way as a way to prove the importance and value of European strategic autonomy." Cui Hongjian said that in this regard, the EU has certain advantages and tools, such as some member states have close ties with Russia. Another example is that the "Normandy model" talks proposed by Europe are a dialogue platform outside the framework of Russia,THE United States and Russia NATO, at least on the surface, there is no American factor, which can promote direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, and it is to discuss European security issues in a European context.

Moreover, in terms of timing, it is also opportune for Europe to step in intensively. At present, the situation in Ukraine is in a stalemate situation, and the relations between the United States and NATO and Russia are also in an intermittent period - the United States and NATO have given written replies to Russia's security requirements, and the West is also waiting for a reply from Russia.

"Ladder" down the steps?

Can a series of diplomatic "magic" by Europe to mitigate the Crisis in Ukraine, lift the risk of war, and even achieve a new European security architecture?

The outside world believes that looking at the current situation, Europe's diplomatic efforts are expected to ease tensions to some extent.

Earlier, the Russian and French leaders had more than 5 hours of long talks to convey some positive information.

For example, according to Macron, the leaders of Russia and Ukraine have confirmed their willingness to implement the Minsk agreement. The Minsk agreement is the basis for resolving the Ukrainian problem, which includes the declaration of a ceasefire and the withdrawal of weapons.

Another example is putin's more positive feedback after the meeting. He said the talks with Macron were "pragmatic, rich in content and useful and effective" and that some of Macron's proposals were worth considering and were expected to be the basis for the next step, and efforts would be made to find a compromise that would satisfy all parties. Macron revealed that he provided Putin with "specific security assurances."

In Cui Hongjian's view, in a certain sense, Europe's promotion of political and diplomatic solutions to the crisis has achieved some results, and there are some signs that can prove that from the resumption of the "Normandy model" quartet talks at the end of last month to the re-meeting on Thursday, it shows that the dialogue process has not been interrupted and has remained coherent. In addition, compared with the previous Russia-US and Russian NATO dialogues, the atmosphere of contact between Europe and Russia is obviously better. "Even if the situation has not cooled down significantly, at least it has not warmed up, which can be seen as the effect of diplomatic efforts."

However, analysts pointed out that due to the complexity of the Crisis in Ukraine and the internal dissent in Europe, European diplomacy may be difficult to dance with long sleeves.

"Europe's diplomatic posture shows its high concern for the current situation, and trying to give the United States and Russia a chance to step down through mediation can play a certain role in promoting the parties to find ways to dialogue and negotiation." But Europe may have a limited role in solving the essential problem. Jiang Yi, an expert on Russia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said.

First of all, there are principled differences between the EU and Russia on the strategic security concept and the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis. Second, although there are differences between the United States and Europe, in order to ensure the unity of the transatlantic alliance, Europe cannot completely go its own way. Third, there are serious contradictions and divisions within Europe. It is also difficult to reach a consensus on the issue of where dialogue and pressure should be based.

For example, Britain closely followed the United States, supplied arms to Ukraine, sent troops to Eastern Europe, and advocated the imposition of the most severe sanctions on Russia; there are differences between old and new Europe within the EU. Germany and France have closer ties with Russia, have a more rational attitude toward Russia, and advocate dialogue. In particular, Germany, due to its strong dependence on Russia's energy, Berlin has not yet relaxed its grip on the issue of sanctions against Russia for the "Nord Stream-2" gas pipeline. However, Central and Eastern European countries are wary of Russia because of historical issues and demand that they be tough on Russia.

"In the current situation, Europe can only play the role of passing the ladder and giving the United States and Russia a step down." Jiang Yi said.

Jiang Yi added that it is also unknown whether the Russian side will take the ladder handed over from Europe. Although the Russian side has responded positively, it is willing to carry out a quadripartite dialogue under the "Normandy model" to maintain a ceasefire and prevent conflict. But Russia has its own views on the root causes of the crisis. In the view of the Russian side, NATO's eastward expansion is the root cause of the crisis, and the United States is the key to unlocking the crisis, so Russia has pushed the talks to bring the United States to the negotiating table. If the United States and NATO do not change their tough attitude toward Russia, the US-Russia negotiations will not be able to make progress, and the Ukraine crisis will still be difficult to fundamentally resolve.

The Kremlin's rebuttal of Macron's claims on Tuesday showed the temperature difference between the two sides. In response to Macron's statement that Putin agreed not to escalate the situation in Ukraine again, The Palace said Macron did not have enough influence in NATO and Moscow could not negotiate any agreement with Paris.

Gromyko, director of the Institute of European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the role of Europe in ukraine should not be overestimated, and at present, it is more important to pay attention to the actions of the United States.

Cui Hongjian said Europe's diplomatic efforts face some challenges. The first is whether the European side can play a credible role as a mediator, work and exert influence on Russia, Ukraine and the United States, rather than just persuading Russia and letting the United States and NATO arch the fire. The second is whether Europe can propose a comprehensive and reasonable security structure that incorporates Russia's security concerns, which is a great test for the EU.

It is also important to note that the Ukraine crisis facing Europe today is different from the Ukraine crisis after the Crimean incident. At that time, the problem was relatively single, and for Europe, it was only necessary to freeze the crisis in eastern Ukraine, so Europe could control the crisis through technical measures such as the "Normandy model" and the Minsk agreement. However, this round of the Ukrainian crisis is a compound crisis, involving multiple issues such as security, politics, internal affairs, and energy. "In this context, the role that any force and any way can play is limited."

What are the next few days?

At a time when diplomatic mediation is being carried out in Europe, the actions of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine at the military level are still continuing.

The United States is speeding up the mobilization of troops, and reinforcements are reaching Poland, Romania and other Eastern European countries; Russia and Ukraine have been conducting 10-day military training separately since February 10. The Russian side held joint exercises with Belarus, while the Ukrainian side practiced weapons provided by the United States, Britain and other countries.

"At the moment, the situation is still uncertain and wavering." Cui Hongjian said. Macron's statement that "the next few days will be decisive" may mean that the coming days will determine which diplomatic and military approaches prevail in the crisis.

Jiang Yi believes that the United States and NATO have not given a satisfactory answer to the Russian side's security requirements, and the two sides are bound to continue to play games on this issue. However, due to the parallel diplomacy and military, the future situation may show a state of ups and downs.

In Cui Hongjian's view, the next step of the situation can focus on the development of the two lines.

One line is how Russia will respond to the written responses of the United States and NATO to its security requirements, and whether the two sides will open a second round of negotiations. At present, the two sides are showing each other's muscles, whether it is military exercises or increasing troops, in a sense, they are all preparing for the next stage of negotiations.

Another line is whether the "Normandy model" can be upgraded, from the level of advisers to the level of leaders, and the promotion of direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. If these goals can be achieved, it will mean a real restart of the "Normandy model", a dialogue framework that tends to be solidified, and will help Russia and Ukraine ease tensions, which will truly be called a diplomatic success for Europe.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Yong Kai

Source: Author: Liao Qin